Civic Education Workshop

1
Civic Education Workshop

• Day 2
• Puzzles in Electoral Politics

2
Paradox of Voting
Jane John Lyn
First Choice Arab Delight (A) Burger Heaven (B) Café China (C)
Second Choice Burger Heaven (B) Café China (C) Arab Delight (A)
Third Choice Café China (C) Arab Delight (A) Burger Heaven (B)
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Paradox of Voting

• Assumes voters vote for their most preferred
  choice
• It does not always happen, but it can
• It is more likely when
• Preferences are diverse
• The number of voters increases
• The number of choices increases
• Sometimes there is no clear majority
• The rules of how we vote can determine which
  option wins

4
Practical Examples of the Paradox of Voting

• Sports playoffs
• Faculty hiring decisions
• Our system of Primaries then general elections
  sets the voting agenda

5
Linking Presidential and Congressional Elections

• The party of the president wins more seats in
  Congressional elections when Presidential
  approval is high and the economy is strong.

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When to Measure

• If you could measure Presidential Approval and
  the Health of the Economy in any ONE quarter only
  of an election year, measures taken during which
  quarter would best predict how well the
  Presidents party does in a House election?
• 1st (Jan. March)
• 2nd (April June)
• 3rd (July Sept.)
• 4th (Oct. Dec.) (Election held in November)

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The Answer is . . .

• The First quarter (Jan. March) which is 8-10
  months before the election
• Why?
• Thats when candidates for the House must
  finalize whether they are running
• The strategic behavior of candidates contributes
  to the pattern of House elections responding to
  Presidential Approval and the Health of the
  Economy

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One more on Presidential Approval

• Presidential Approval responds to
• The Economy
• Wars
• Scandals (at least sometimes)
• Presidential approval influences both
  congressional elections (we just saw that) and
  subsequent Presidential Elections

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Presidential Approval the Case of Bush Sr.

• George Bush was extremely popular in 1991 as a
  result of the Gulf War
• Many top Democrats chose not to run for President
  for 1992 (esp. Nunn and Cuomo)
• Instead, we get Clinton, Paul Tsongas, and other
  Democrats who are willing to run
• But look . . .

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Approval of Bush
Gulf War Jan/Feb 91
Actual Approval
Predicted Approval
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The moral of the story is . . .

• The graph shows Bushs actual approval ratings
  and what it should have been based only on the
  economy
• Anyone who guessed the election would be about
  The Economy Stupid would have run (and won?)
• Welcome President Clinton!