WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS

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WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS
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WEA in Brief

• Established in 1998 by UNDP, DESA, WEC
• Will serve as input to CSD-9 preparatory process,
  CSD-9 and beyond (Rio 10)
• Two phases
• Editorial phase Collaborative effort to provide
  scientific and technical analysis for the report
  and discussions September 1998 - August 2000
• Consultative and Outreach phase Provide input to
  editorial phase and disseminate findings and
  encourage discussion and debate April 1999 -
  April 2001
• Funding Austria, Norway, Finland, Sweden, the
  Energy Foundation and the United Nations
  Foundation

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WEA Editorial Board

• Chairman
• Jose Goldemberg, Brazil
• Vice-Chairs
• Safiatou Ba-N-Daw, Cote DIvoire
• Anca Popescu, Romania
• Hisham Khatib, Jordan
• Francis Viray, Philippines
• John Baker, UK
• 3Is
• Thomas B. Johansson
• JoAnne Disano/Kui-Nang Mak
• Gerald Doucet/Emad El-Sharkawi

• Convening Lead Authors
• Anca Popescu, Romania
• Hans-Holger Rogner, Austria
• Amulya K.N. Reddy, India
• Kirk Smith, US, John P. Holdren, US
• Hisham Khatib, Jordan
• Hans-Holger Rogner, Austria
• Eberhard Jochem, Germany
• Wim Turkemburg, The Netherlands
• Robert R. Williams, US
• Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Austria
• Dennis Anderson, UK
• Michael Jefferson, UK

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Primary Energy Consumption
Industrialized Countries
Developing Countries
Population 1.34 billion of fossil fuels
81 Energy 6,701 x 106 toe 5.0 toe/capita
Population 4.56 billion of fossil fuels
70 Energy 3,861 x 106 toe 0.85 toe/capita
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Issues related to the present energy system

• Energy approaches affect many important issues
• Social
• Economic
• Environmental and Health
• Security

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Changes in GDP, Population, Primary Energy Use
and Electricity Use in OECD Countries, 1960-1997
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Oil Imports as Share of Export Earnings in
Various Developing Countries, 1985-97
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Energy and Development

• 2 billion people have no access to electricity
  and an additional 2 billion people have access to
  unreliable electricity.
• 2 billion people cook using traditional fuels.

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Energy and Women

• Heavy burden on millions of women and children
• Millions are spending hours a day carrying fuel
  and water
• Millions are being exposed to high levels of
  indoor air pollution leading to premature deaths
• Example The World Health Organization estimates
  that air pollution indoor causes 2.73.0 million
  premature deaths a year, or 56 percent of global
  mortality.

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Environmental Degradation

• Energy activities contribute to indoor air
  pollution, urban air pollution, acidification and
  global warming
• 86 of anthropogenic emissions of sulphur dioxide
• Greenhouse gas emissions 78 of carbon dioxide,
  23 of methane
• A significant fraction of emissions of small
  particulate matter
• Significant fractions of many other environmental
  challenges

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Human Disruption Indexdefined as the ratio of
human-generated flow to the natural (baseline)
flow
Insult Human disruption Index Share of human disruption caused by energy supply ()
Lead emissions to atmosphere 18 41
Oil added to oceans 10 44
Cadmium emissions to atmosphere 5.4 18
Sulphur emissions to atmosphere 2.7 86
Methane flow to atmosphere 2.3 23
Nitrogen fixation (as NO and NH3 1.5 32
Mercury emissions to atmosphere 1.4 21
Nitrous oxide flow to atmosphere 0.5 20
Particulate emissions to atmosphere 0.12 45
Non-methane hydrocarbons to atmosphere 0.12 40
Carbon dioxide flow to atmosphere 0.05 78
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Options to enhance energy supply security

• Avoid over-dependence on imports by encouraging
  greater reliance on local resources
• Increase end-use efficiency,which can also reduce
  dependence on imported energy resources
• Diversity of supply
• Support international cooperation
• Encourage technology transfers
• Increase national and regional strategic reserves

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Towards a more Sustainable Future

• The linkages described lead to a demand for
  change of the present energy system development

• The magnitude of the change required is not small
  
• The challenge is to find a way forward that
  addresses all the issues simultaneously

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Energy Resources

• Conventional oil and gas could last at least
  50-100 years.
• Total fossil fuel resources will last at least
  several hundreds of years
• Renewable energy flows are some 1000 times
  current global energy use

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Technical Options for a more Sustainable Future

• Improved Energy Efficiency - especially at the
  point of end-use in buildings, electric
  appliances, vehicles, and production processes.
• More Renewable Energy such as biomass, wind,
  solar, hydro, and geothermal
• Advanced Energy Technologies
• next generation fossil fuel technologies
• nuclear technologies, if the issues associated
  with nuclear can be resolved.

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Sustainable Energy
Sustainable Energy Energy that is produced and
used in ways that simultaneously support human
development over the long-term in all its social,
economic, and environmental dimensions
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Rural Energy

• Energy for Rural Development
• Provision of clean liquid or gaseous fuels
  for cooking and of electricity for lighting
  and other basic communities at the household
  level
• Provision of liquid fuels and electricity for
  mechanization of agriculture
• Provision of electricity that is sufficiently
  low in cost that it could attract industrial
  activity to rural areas

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Do Sustainable Energy Futures Exist?
Scenario development thought experiments is a
useful tool in evaluating possible combinations
of assumptions that may lead to sustainability

• The middle course B scenario
• Scenario A3
• The ecologically driven scenario C1

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Energy Demand Projections
Primary energy (EJ/year)
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Illustrative Energy Supply Projection
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Scenario indicators
Scenarios A B C
GWProduct 2100/1990 15 10 11
GtC 2050 9-15 10 5
GtC 2100 6-20 11 2
Cum. GtC 1990-2100 910-1450 1000 540
Invs, trill 1990-2050 40 35 24
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Sustainable Development Indicators
Indicator 1990 Scenario A3 Scenario B Scenario C1
Eradicating poverty Low Very High Medium Very high
Reducing income gaps Low High Medium Very high
Universal access Low Very High High Very high
Affordability Low High Medium Very high
Reducing health impacts Med Very High High Very high
Reducing air pollution Medium Very High High Very high
Limiting GHG emissions Low High Low Very high
Increasing domestic energy Medium High Low Very high
Impr. Supply efficiency Medium Very high High Very high
Impr. End-use efficiency Low High Medium Very high
Accelerate techn. diffusion Low Very high Medium Medium
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Investments in Energy Supply
Issue Mobilization of capital for energy supply
investments

• Investment in energy supply projected at 300-500
  billion per year for the next 20 years, depending
  on path chosen
• Less than 10 of total overall investments

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Policies for Sustainable Energy
An energy future compatible with sustainable
development will not happen by itself, thus
policy change is required, including

• Making markets work better, including mobilizing
  investments
• Focusing on the innovation chain
• Reforming the power sector
• Increasing capacity to support policy and
  institution building, and transfer of technology

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The Innovation Chain

• Research and Development
• Demonstration projects
• Early deployment (cost buy-down)
• Demonstration Widespread dissemination

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Experience curves for photovoltaics, windmills,
and gas turbines
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Policy options cost-buy-down and dissemination
Good ideas for policy implementation are gaining
ground around the world Renewable Portfolio
Standards (RPS) Subsidies with sunset clauses
Concessions Green pricing Retail financing Clean
Development Mechanism
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Increasing Capacity

• Policy support and institution building
• Education and training
• Investment-friendly environments that are
  socially and environmentally responsible
• Technological leap-frogging
• Consumer credits, micro-finance

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Web

• WWWEA on the web
• www.undp.org/seed/eap/Projects/WEA.html

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WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS