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The State

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Title: The State


1
The State
  • Origin, Transformation, and Collapse

2
I. Defining the State
  1. Definition based on politics community or
    institution with a monopoly on the legitimate use
    of physical force over people in its territory
  2. Definition based on language The totality of a
    countrys governmental institutions and
    officials, together with the laws procedures
    that structure their activities
  3. Key feature Sovereignty (sole legal authority
    over people and territory)

3
II. Theories of the State
  • Formalism (a.k.a. the Old Institutionalism)
    Constitutions and laws determine resource
    allocation and political outcomes
  • Look at successful states to copy design features
    (success attributed to formal laws). Freedom
    preserved by Bill of Rights, etc.
  • Problems
  • Same constitutions different outcomes (Swiss,
    Filipinos, Liberians all modeled US Constitution)
  • People sometimes obey states but other times
    overthrow them
  • Difficult to predict which mechanisms will be
    effective because no theory about why some work
    while others fail

4
B. Functionalism The state serves functions for
society
  • Assumptions
  • Every society must perform certain functions in
    order to survive (reproduction, education,
    defense, etc.)
  • Both formal and informal rules needed to preserve
    social stability
  • Existing customs and laws serve certain universal
    functions. Which ones?
  • State failure explained as disequilibrium
    some parts failed to fulfill functions
  • Problems
  • Theory is tautological What predictions can we
    make?
  • Treats status quo as normal state of affairs
    but some institutions seem to have negative
    effects (ag agencies decreasing ag production)

5
C. Social Forces The state is an object of
struggle
  • Assumption Political outcomes are the result of
    interest groups fighting over the control of
    resources
  • Method Examine group strength and position, then
    calculate sum of forces to arrive at result
  • Problems
  • Similar group alignments produce different
    outcomes in different states
  • Some groups appear to have influence out of
    proportion to objective power (resources)
  • States intervene to alter group power

6
D. Rational Choice The state is composed of
rational individuals
  • Focuses on individuals.
  • Rationality
  • Connected preferences People know what they want
    (although they might not know whats really good
    for them)
  • Transitory preferences People are consistent
    about what they want
  • Method Given preferences, how can individuals
    get what they want? Private enterprise,
    collective action, or politics?
  • Problem Rules of the game differ in different
    countries ? incentives to behave differently

7
E. The New Institutionalism Institutions as
Rules of the Game
  1. Assumes social forces or rational choice Actors
    pursuing interests do construct or alter states,
    often to solve collective action problems or
    security dilemmas
  2. Argues that state institutions in turn structure
    group/individual decision-making by changing
    incentives (indeed, this was their purpose)
  3. Implication Different group relations produce
    different institutions (Example Presidentialism
    inappropriate for competition between
    ethnically-based parties)
  4. Problem Still no theory of preferences. Why do
    people have different desires?

8
III. Evolution of the State
  • State formation
  • Early polities Socially-stratified groups in
    which people specialize, with some specializing
    in administration or governance.
  • Large polities become empires through conquest
    and relaxing criteria for inclusion (beyond the
    family or tribe)
  • States become territorial Clovis is King of the
    Franks in late 5th Century but Capetians are
    Kings of France in 6th Century. Laws of people
    (wherever they might be) replaced by laws of
    territories.
  • Loyalty still personal To the person, not the
    position.
  • Capstone governments States are composed of
    different groups ruled by their own customs and
    only occasionally interacting with government.
    Early states ran wide but not deep.

9
B. Transition to the Supremacy of States
  1. Centralization Technology, economic growth,
    trade, better defense enable rulers to centralize
    authority and deepen ties to the state through
    taxation and policing
  2. Rule of Law Formal law is enforced, contracts
    become written, etc.
  3. Sovereignty Clash between sources of authority
    (Church and state) produces huge wars and leads
    to development of sovereignty norm (only the
    state has control over its people and territory)

Note From here on, everything is disputed
10
C. Colonialism and Institution-Building
  • European states ignored sovereignty of
    non-Europeans, imposed new institutions
  • Institutions selected for benefit of colonial
    powers or colonists
  • Densely populated areas (tropics) Native labor
    exploited through slavery and feudalism
  • Sparsely populated areas Institutions set up to
    encourage further colonization by Europeans
    (representation, autonomy)

11
3. The Institution-Based Reversal Colonial
Development and Population
12
D. The Constitutional State
  • Why would rulers limit their own power?
  • Increased trade enriches merchant class ? able to
    finance rebellion (stick) or Crown (carrot)
  • Absolutism restrains trade (no secure property
    rights) only Crown enriched

13
Voyages Per Year Mediterranean (Pink) vs.
Atlantic (Blue) Trade
14
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15
D. The Constitutional State
  • Why would rulers limit their own power?
  • Increased trade enriches merchant class ? able to
    finance rebellion (stick) or Crown (carrot)
  • Absolutism restrains trade (no secure property
    rights) only Crown enriched
  • Result Bifurcation of Europe into constitutional
    (England, Netherlands) and absolutist (Spain,
    Portugal) regimes
  • Expansion of franchise Threat of revolution when
    industrialization empowers poor (unskilled labor)

16
E. Post-Colonial States
  1. Most born with institutions designed for
    benefit of others
  2. Pre-independence institutions enriched some local
    elites and impoverished others (divide and rule
    -- or mobilization of revolutionary armies)
  3. Existing elites use economic power to preserve
    political power (institutions designed to
    perpetuate rule)

17
IV. Future of the State Threats to Legitimacy
and Power
  • A New World Order? Undermining the legitimacy of
    state sovereignty
  • International Relations Sovereign states
    sometimes have to bargain with other sovereign
    states to solve common problems
  • Problem Treaties should be unenforceable
  • Solution Create self-enforcing agreements like
    multilateral treaties that sanction violators
  • Alternative solution Create common
    decision-making entity (UN, EU, IMF, etc.)
  • Either solution constrains the state, eroding
    sovereignty in practice (3) or law (4)

18
B. Civil War Sovereignty Under Siege
  • Geographic Causes
  • Land Area Bigger countries more prone to
    secessionism
  • Terrain Mountains increase war risk (less
    evidence for jungles or forests)
  • Resources Oil increases risk (less evidence for
    metals and diamonds)
  • Neighborhood Contagion effects

19
2. Economic Causes
  1. Per-capita GDP Both level and growth rate reduce
    war risk, but vertical inequality has no effect
    (few studies of horizontal inequality)
  2. Primary commodity exports Countries dependent on
    raw material exports are war-prone
  3. Social welfare Low infant mortality and high
    secondary school enrollment reduce war risk
  4. Agriculture Soil degradation increases war risk

20
3. Political Causes
  1. History Recent wars increase risk (effect lasts
    for more than 10 years)
  2. Regime type Anocracy is dangerous

21
Anocracy and State Failure
22
3. Political Causes
  1. History Recent wars increase risk (effect lasts
    for more than 10 years)
  2. Regime type Anocracy is dangerous (and strong
    democracy is better than autocracy)
  3. Regime change Political instability increases
    war risk

23
4. Demographic Causes
  1. Population More people higher risk (but
    evidence on population density is mixed)
  2. Diversity Results are mixed, but some studies
    find ethnic heterogeneity increases risk (no real
    evidence for linguistic, religious, or social
    diversity)

24
Relationship Diversity and Income
25
Relationship Diversity and Freedom
26
5. Civil War Risk is Declining
27
C. State failure Sovereignty without authority.
Three routes to state failure
  • Catastrophe Something overwhelms states ability
    to provide even minimal protection or enforce
    law. Causes
  • Low capacity to respond to catastrophe (civil
    war, poverty, corruption)

28
Corruption Perceptions Index
29
C. State failure Sovereignty without authority.
Three routes to state failure
  • Catastrophe Something overwhelms states ability
    to provide even minimal protection or enforce
    law. Causes
  • Low capacity to respond to catastrophe (civil
    war, poverty, corruption)
  • Natural disasters Tend to recur in same places

30
Affected by Disasters, 1975-2004 (UNEP)
31
Killed by Disasters, 1975-2004 (UNEP)
32
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33
C. State failure Sovereignty without authority.
Three routes to state failure
  • Catastrophe Something overwhelms states ability
    to provide even minimal protection or enforce
    law. Causes
  • Low capacity to respond to catastrophe (civil
    war, poverty, corruption)
  • Natural disasters Tend to recur in same places
  • Disease Compare health care resources to disease
    risk

34
Per-Capita Health Spending
35
HIV Cases
36
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37
TB Cases
38
TB Incidence per 100,000
39
Malaria Deaths
40
Cholera Deaths
41
Polio Cases
42
2. Sovereignty without institutionalization
State is created which lacks de-personalized
institutions or capacity to extract taxes and
monopolize force
  • Recent decolonization/independence -- New
    states at risk

43
b. State birth type and institutional strength
  1. Hypothesis States born in revolution, secession,
    or nonviolent struggle for independence should be
    stronger than those granted independence without
    struggle (examples Congo, Uzbekistan)
  2. IV Better birth experience (requiring
    organization and solution of collective action
    problems)
  3. Tests using both GDP and Rotbergs (2004) index
    of state failure as DVs reveal

44
iv. The puzzle of state birth
  • Good births increase later GDP and decrease odds
    of state failure but
  • Relationship disappears when war participation is
    also included as a (control) IV. Why?
  • Theory War produces state strength.
  • Interstate war increases later growth!
  • Civil war decreases later growth
  • Another finding States with imposed borders
    different from pre-colonization ones have lower
    growth, higher rates of failure

45
c. Personalized regimes Difficult to measure
  1. One indicator unconstrained executives (very
    similar to autocracy measures). Test Results

46
Estimated risk of genocide it goes up when
unconstrained executives have a powerful Army
Index of Military Personnel
47
c. Personalized regimes Difficult to measure
  1. One indicator unconstrained executives (very
    similar to autocracy measures). Test Results
    unconstrained executive large military danger
  2. Alternative experiment Compare personalist
    post-Soviet regimes to institutionalized or
    previously-independent regimes. DV violent
    deaths
  3. Everyone agrees Turkmenistan was personalized.
    Why?

48
Welcome to Turkmenistan, 2006
  • A statue of our glorious leader,
    President-for-Life Turkmenbashi (meaning Great
    Leader of All Turkmen).
  • This is one of a half-dozen statues of him we
    made out of gold. (Really, it was the least we
    could do.)

49
Youll be hearing a lot about Turkmenbashi here
  • This one revolves so he may always face the sun!

50
Hes everywhere!
51
Turkmenbashi the Spiritual Guide
  • Ruhnama is the combination autobiography,
    historical fiction, and spiritual guidebook
    written by Turkmenbashi himself
  • Must be prominently displayed in bookstores and
    government offices
  • Required to be displayed next to and equal to the
    Islamic Qur'an in mosques
  • Main component of education from primary school
    to university. Ability to exactly recite passages
    from it is required for state employment and
    even a drivers license
  • Ruhnama was sent into space in 2006

52
Every night this enormous mechanical Ruhnama
opens and passages are recited with video
53
More interesting construction projects
  • In Niyazov's home village of Kipchak, a complex
    has been built to the memory of his mother,
    including a mosque (est. at US100 million)
    conceived as a symbol of the rebirth of the
    Turkmen people. The walls of this edifice display
    precepts from the Ruhnama along with Qur'an
    suras.
  • August 2004 Turkmenbashi orders an ice palace to
    be built in the desert. This wonder of the
    world ends up being an ice skating rink.

54
But wait, theres more
  • Recent decrees
  • Turkmenbashi ordered the closure of all rural
    libraries because village Turkmen do not read
  • Ban on opera and ballet they are unnecessary
  • Young people may not get gold tooth caps/teeth,
    but rather should chew on bones
  • Closure of all hospitals outside Ashgabat, saying
    that sick people could just come to the capital
  • Ordering that physicians swear an oath to him
    instead of the Hippocratic Oath
  • All recorded music is banned
  • The city of Krasnovodsk is now the city
    ofTurkmenbashi

55
In case youre not convinced
  • In 1991 he introduced a new Turkmen alphabet,
    which all are required to use
  • He renamed the days of the week
  • Then he renamed the months of the year
  • January is now Turkmenbashi
  • February is now Flag (Flag Day is celebrated
    on Turkmenbashis birthday)
  • April is Gurbansoltan Eje, the name of
    Turkmenbashis mother
  • September is Ruhnama
  • And so forth

56
Was Turkmenistan headed for failure?
57
Turkmenistans Path
  • Exports natural gas and cotton
  • 1990s Depression (Russia cut off trans-shipment
    of gas)
  • 2000s Recovery as non-Russia pipelines began
    operation
  • Government follows free trade policy, received
    MFN status from Europe and WTO
  • January 2006 Government eliminates pensions to
    one third of elderly, cuts pensions of remaining
    two-thirds and then orders elderly to repay the
    pensions received in the past two years back to
    the State. Reports indicate that this may be
    killing old people, whose 10 - 90 pensions were
    their sole sources of support

58
Turkmenistan After Turkmenbashi
  • December 2006 Turkmenbashi dies suddenly without
    naming successor
  • Gurbanguly Mälikgulyýewiç Berdimuhamedow becomes
    acting President, even though someone else is
    designated by the Constitution (and immediately
    arrested) Berdimuhamedow elected by
    fraudulent poll in Feb 2007
  • Berdimuhamedow rumored to be illegitimate son of
    Turkmenbashi

59
Berdimuhamedows policies
  • March 2007 Reverses pension decree
  • Reduces cult of personality around Turkmenbashi
    (but begins new one of his own)
  • Re-opens schools, restored the names of the
    months and days of the week, announced plans to
    move the gold rotating statue of from Ashgabat's
    central square
  • Continues propaganda

60
iv. Will Turkmenistan fail?
  • Large oil/gas reserves ? foreign governments
    willing to overlook internal policies
  • Highly dependent on Russia (which owns the major
    gas pipelines in the region)
  • Recent tensions as Turkmenistan grows closer to
    US (accidental explosion severs gas line to
    Russia in 2009, as gas prices fall and
    Turkmenistan insists that Russia honor contracts
    reached at higher price)
  • Recent plans for alternative regional pipeline to
    Turkey ? Russian threats

61
3. The Poverty Trapa. Official data
Concentration in Africa
62
b. Satellite estimates (areas with lots of people
but few lights are assumed to be poor)
63
c. Combined National Poverty Estimates
64
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65
D. What do we know about state failure?
  1. Multiple paths to state failure exist no single
    cause of collapse
  2. History matters Method of independence and
    original institutions help determine later
    institutions
  3. Economics matters Common element in most routes
    to state failure is poverty
  4. Greatest risk is sub-Saharan Africa recently
    de-colonized, poor, vulnerable to disasters,
    patterns of civil conflict, lootable resources,
    etc.

66
IV. Historical Case Study The Great Lakes Crisis
  • Congo/Zaire Anatomy of a weak state
  • Pre-colonization Strong Luba Kingdom in Katanga
    area other areas attached to other kingdoms or
    occupied by smaller tribes
  • Colonialism
  • 1885 Belgium awarded the territory
  • King Leopold builds railways and rubber
    plantations using slave labor 5-15 million dead
    (about half of population dies)
  • Force Publique established to maintain control
    over laborers
  • 1908 Belgian Parliament takes over colony
  • Hospitals, schools, etc built improvement.
    But
  • No native administration developed. No local
    rule allowed.

67
3. Decolonization
  • Lack of preparation
  • 1958 Kongo ethnic groups form ABAKO, occupy
    areas
  • 1959 Belgium bans ABAKO, promises independence.
  • May 1960 Elections ? Anti-Belgian party defeats
    pro-Belgian party and regional parties. Coalition
    government formed by Lumumba, Kasa-Vubu, and
    allies such as Mobutu.
  • Independence declared on June 30, 1960
    Congolese Parliament has only existed for a month!

68
4. Mutiny, Civil War, and Fragmentation
  • Yellow govt
  • Red rival govt
  • Green Katanga secessionists, aided by Belgium
  • Blue Kasai Mining State
  • secessionists

69
4. Mutiny, Civil War, and Fragmentation
  • Mutiny and Secession (July 5, 1960)
  • Force Publique recruits mutiny against Belgian
    officers
  • Belgium sends troops to suppress mutiny, even
    though government has not requested aid
  • Belgium assists Katangan secessionists
  • Luba tribes then revolt against Katanga
    (secession within secession!)
  • Political Maneuvers
  • Col. Mobutu gains control of foreign aid as Chief
    of Staff, distributes it to units loyal to
    himself.
  • UN peacekeepers deployed, but not empowered to
    fight. Lumumba asks Soviets for aid, uses Soviet
    airlift to suppress Kasai secessionists
  • Coup CIA then assists Lumumba rivals Mobutu and
    Kasa-Vubu, who assemble anti-Lumumba coalition in
    Parliament and dismiss him from office.
  • Only 67 days have passed since independence!

70
4. Mutiny, Civil War, and Fragmentation
  • New rebellions rise as old ones fail
  • Lumumba arrested by Kasa-Vubu but his V-P sets up
    a Lumumbist government in the Northeast (red area
    on map)
  • Jan 1961 At Belgian urging, Mobutu executes
    Lumumba
  • Feb 1961 UN Security Council authorizes use of
    force (only time between Korea and Persian Gulf
    War)
  • 1961-1962 UN forces attack Katanga. Secretary
    General of the UN killed when plane crashes in
    Congo (cause undetermined)

71
Mutiny, Civil War, and Fragmentation
  • Yellow govt
  • Red rival govt
  • Green Katanga secessionists, aided by Belgium
  • Blue Kasai Mining State
  • secessionists

72
d. 1964-1965 The fourth round of rebellions
  1. 1964 New revolts in eastern provinces by
    Simbas (Swahili for lion)
  2. Simbas seize European hostages ? military rescue
    operation succeeds
  3. Simbas defeated by government of Kasa-Vubu
  4. 1965 CIA assists Mobutu in coup against
    Kasa-Vubu. Mobutu bans all other political
    parties and establishes personal dictatorship
    with title of "Father of the Nation."

73
5. Mobutu and Mobutism
  • From Congo to Zaire
  • 1967 Mobutu creates new, obligatory national
    party (MPR). State becomes extension of party
    The MPR must be considered as a Church and its
    Founder as its Messiah.
  • Constitution gives President power to dismiss
    governors and judges, issue decrees
  • 1971-2 Africanization -- Congo renamed Zaire,
    citizens ordered to take African names
  • 1973 Salongo -- obligatory civic work
    introduced (like colonial labor requirement)

74
Mobutus own Africanization
  • Joseph Desire Mobutu becomes
  • Mobutu Sese Seko Kuku Ngbendu waza Banga
  • Usual translation The all-conquering warrior
    who, because of his endurance and inflexible will
    to win, will go from conquest to conquest leaving
    fire in his wake."

75
5. Mobutu and Mobutism
  • From Congo to Zaire
  • 1967 Mobutu creates new, obligatory national
    party (MPR). State becomes extension of party
    The MPR must be considered as a Church and its
    Founder as its Messiah.
  • Constitution gives President power to dismiss
    governors and judges, issue decrees
  • 1971-2 Africanization -- Congo renamed Zaire,
    citizens ordered to take African names
  • 1973 Salongo -- obligatory civic work
    introduced (like colonial labor requirement)

76
For weeks at a time, Zaire's official press was
forbidden to mention the name of any other
Zairian than the president himself.
-- NYT
77
b. Zaires troubles State weakness
  1. Mobutu and political allies funnel billions of
    dollars into Swiss and other offshore accounts
  2. Early 1970s World Bank refuses to fund grandiose
    development program. US agrees to lend the
    money. Huge public debt accumulates.
  3. 1973 Zairianization -- expropriation of
    foreign-owned businesses for the benefit of
    political allies. Massive business failures
    follow.
  4. 1977, 1978 Invasions by Katangan exiles. French
    and Moroccans defeat invasion with US transport.
  5. 1980s Zaire used by US/allies as staging ground
    for rebels in neighboring countries
  6. 1991 Paratrooper mutiny over unpaid wages

78
B. Regional Background A History of Slaughter
Zaire
79
1. Historical Overview Hutu vs. Tutsi in the
Great Lakes Region
  • 1950s-1970s Hutu vs. Tutsi in Rwanda and
    Burundi Tutsi refugees to Uganda, Congo/Zaire
  • 1980s Civil war in Uganda Tutsi exiles aid
    Ugandan rebels ? victory
  • Early 1990s Tutsi exile army invades Rwanda with
    help from Uganda
  • 1993 Arusha Accords Agreement to share power
    between Hutu and Tutsi
  • 1993 Massacres in Burundi Hutu rebellion begins

80
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81
2. Genocide in Rwanda, 1994
82
1994 Genocide in Rwanda
  • April 1994
  • Assassination of Rwanda and Burundi presidents
    (probably by Hutu extremists)
  • Hutu extremists kill moderate Hutus in Rwanda,
    seize power, and systematically exterminate 80
    of Tutsis (about 800,000 people)
  • Tutsi rebels immediately restart civil war, take
    control of country
  • Hutu militants, 2 million Hutu civilians flee to
    camps in Zaire

83
3. Flight of the Interahamwe
84
4. Security Issues Rwanda looks to Zaire
  1. Interahamwe threaten Rwandan Tutsis Control camp
    resources
  2. Zaires Tutsis (Banyamulenge) fear the
    Interahamwe
  3. Burundi Hutu rebels ally with Interahamwe

85
C. From Zaire to the Democratic Republic of Congo
  1. Mobutu decides to preserve power by using
    Interahamwe against enemies ? classifies
    Banyamulenge (Zairian Tutsis) as refugees and
    revokes citizenship
  2. September 1996 South Kivu province orders all
    Banyamulenge / Tutsi to leave or be sent to
    camps
  3. Rwanda sees opportunity defend Tutsi in Zaire
    AND eliminate Interahamwe
  4. October 1996 Anti-Mobutu ADFL revolt sponsored
    by Rwanda, led by Kabila (fought Mobutu in the
    1960s!)

86
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87
4. 1996-1997 The Zaire War
  1. Rebels attack Hutu camps, force refugees back to
    Rwanda. Zaire army melts away.
  2. All of Mobutus regional enemies aid the ADFL.
  3. May 1997 ADFL seizes power factional
    infighting begins
  4. ADFL renames Zaire the DRC

88
D. Africas World War
  • Origins of the DRC War
  • 1997 Kabila wins power struggle within ADFL
  • Early 1998 Kabila seeks independence from
    sponsors (Rwanda, Uganda)
  • Kabila expels Rwandan forces / Banyamulenge ?
    Rebellion in Kivu (again)
  • The Maelstrom The war goes regional
  • Pro-rebel intervention Uganda, Rwanda, and later
    Burundi (pro-Tutsi)
  • Pro-government intervention Angola, Zimbabwe,
    Namibia, Sudan, Chad, Hutu rebels in Burundi,
    Interahamwe
  • Other involvement Both sides in neighboring
    Congo Republic war, Ethiopia and Eritrea (Sudan ?
    Ethiopia ? Eritrea)

89
Africas World War
90
3. Fragmentation
  1. Military Stalemate
  2. Rwanda-Ugandaconflict
  3. Rebel organizations fragment
  4. About 2-4 million die, mostly civilians

91
E. No war, no peace
  1. War formally ended by negotiation in 2003 after
    Kabila assassinated (son takes power)
  2. Death toll still 1000/day in 2004 many small
    militias carry out massacres, but majority dies
    of starvation and disease due to ongoing anarchy
  3. July 2006 Elections finally held by transitional
    government. Kabila fails to win majority ? his
    forces then attack the forces of his competitor
    in the upcoming runoff ?Kabila wins 70 of vote
  4. Rwanda still sponsors some militias, which often
    clash with government forces
  5. By 2009, death rate actually increases to
    45,000/month. Best guess 5.4 million dead
    since conflict began.
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