Title: The State
1The State
- Origin, Transformation, and Collapse
2I. Defining the State
- Definition based on politics community or
institution with a monopoly on the legitimate use
of physical force over people in its territory - Definition based on language The totality of a
countrys governmental institutions and
officials, together with the laws procedures
that structure their activities - Key feature Sovereignty (sole legal authority
over people and territory)
3II. Theories of the State
- Formalism (a.k.a. the Old Institutionalism)
Constitutions and laws determine resource
allocation and political outcomes - Look at successful states to copy design features
(success attributed to formal laws). Freedom
preserved by Bill of Rights, etc. - Problems
- Same constitutions different outcomes (Swiss,
Filipinos, Liberians all modeled US Constitution) - People sometimes obey states but other times
overthrow them - Difficult to predict which mechanisms will be
effective because no theory about why some work
while others fail
4B. Functionalism The state serves functions for
society
- Assumptions
- Every society must perform certain functions in
order to survive (reproduction, education,
defense, etc.) - Both formal and informal rules needed to preserve
social stability - Existing customs and laws serve certain universal
functions. Which ones? - State failure explained as disequilibrium
some parts failed to fulfill functions - Problems
- Theory is tautological What predictions can we
make? - Treats status quo as normal state of affairs
but some institutions seem to have negative
effects (ag agencies decreasing ag production)
5C. Social Forces The state is an object of
struggle
- Assumption Political outcomes are the result of
interest groups fighting over the control of
resources - Method Examine group strength and position, then
calculate sum of forces to arrive at result - Problems
- Similar group alignments produce different
outcomes in different states - Some groups appear to have influence out of
proportion to objective power (resources) - States intervene to alter group power
6D. Rational Choice The state is composed of
rational individuals
- Focuses on individuals.
- Rationality
- Connected preferences People know what they want
(although they might not know whats really good
for them) - Transitory preferences People are consistent
about what they want - Method Given preferences, how can individuals
get what they want? Private enterprise,
collective action, or politics? - Problem Rules of the game differ in different
countries ? incentives to behave differently
7E. The New Institutionalism Institutions as
Rules of the Game
- Assumes social forces or rational choice Actors
pursuing interests do construct or alter states,
often to solve collective action problems or
security dilemmas - Argues that state institutions in turn structure
group/individual decision-making by changing
incentives (indeed, this was their purpose) - Implication Different group relations produce
different institutions (Example Presidentialism
inappropriate for competition between
ethnically-based parties) - Problem Still no theory of preferences. Why do
people have different desires?
8III. Evolution of the State
- State formation
- Early polities Socially-stratified groups in
which people specialize, with some specializing
in administration or governance. - Large polities become empires through conquest
and relaxing criteria for inclusion (beyond the
family or tribe) - States become territorial Clovis is King of the
Franks in late 5th Century but Capetians are
Kings of France in 6th Century. Laws of people
(wherever they might be) replaced by laws of
territories. - Loyalty still personal To the person, not the
position. - Capstone governments States are composed of
different groups ruled by their own customs and
only occasionally interacting with government.
Early states ran wide but not deep.
9B. Transition to the Supremacy of States
- Centralization Technology, economic growth,
trade, better defense enable rulers to centralize
authority and deepen ties to the state through
taxation and policing - Rule of Law Formal law is enforced, contracts
become written, etc. - Sovereignty Clash between sources of authority
(Church and state) produces huge wars and leads
to development of sovereignty norm (only the
state has control over its people and territory)
Note From here on, everything is disputed
10C. Colonialism and Institution-Building
- European states ignored sovereignty of
non-Europeans, imposed new institutions - Institutions selected for benefit of colonial
powers or colonists - Densely populated areas (tropics) Native labor
exploited through slavery and feudalism - Sparsely populated areas Institutions set up to
encourage further colonization by Europeans
(representation, autonomy)
113. The Institution-Based Reversal Colonial
Development and Population
12D. The Constitutional State
- Why would rulers limit their own power?
- Increased trade enriches merchant class ? able to
finance rebellion (stick) or Crown (carrot) - Absolutism restrains trade (no secure property
rights) only Crown enriched
13Voyages Per Year Mediterranean (Pink) vs.
Atlantic (Blue) Trade
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15D. The Constitutional State
- Why would rulers limit their own power?
- Increased trade enriches merchant class ? able to
finance rebellion (stick) or Crown (carrot) - Absolutism restrains trade (no secure property
rights) only Crown enriched - Result Bifurcation of Europe into constitutional
(England, Netherlands) and absolutist (Spain,
Portugal) regimes - Expansion of franchise Threat of revolution when
industrialization empowers poor (unskilled labor)
16E. Post-Colonial States
- Most born with institutions designed for
benefit of others - Pre-independence institutions enriched some local
elites and impoverished others (divide and rule
-- or mobilization of revolutionary armies) - Existing elites use economic power to preserve
political power (institutions designed to
perpetuate rule)
17IV. Future of the State Threats to Legitimacy
and Power
- A New World Order? Undermining the legitimacy of
state sovereignty - International Relations Sovereign states
sometimes have to bargain with other sovereign
states to solve common problems - Problem Treaties should be unenforceable
- Solution Create self-enforcing agreements like
multilateral treaties that sanction violators - Alternative solution Create common
decision-making entity (UN, EU, IMF, etc.) - Either solution constrains the state, eroding
sovereignty in practice (3) or law (4)
18B. Civil War Sovereignty Under Siege
- Geographic Causes
- Land Area Bigger countries more prone to
secessionism - Terrain Mountains increase war risk (less
evidence for jungles or forests) - Resources Oil increases risk (less evidence for
metals and diamonds) - Neighborhood Contagion effects
192. Economic Causes
- Per-capita GDP Both level and growth rate reduce
war risk, but vertical inequality has no effect
(few studies of horizontal inequality) - Primary commodity exports Countries dependent on
raw material exports are war-prone - Social welfare Low infant mortality and high
secondary school enrollment reduce war risk - Agriculture Soil degradation increases war risk
203. Political Causes
- History Recent wars increase risk (effect lasts
for more than 10 years) - Regime type Anocracy is dangerous
21Anocracy and State Failure
223. Political Causes
- History Recent wars increase risk (effect lasts
for more than 10 years) - Regime type Anocracy is dangerous (and strong
democracy is better than autocracy) - Regime change Political instability increases
war risk
234. Demographic Causes
- Population More people higher risk (but
evidence on population density is mixed) - Diversity Results are mixed, but some studies
find ethnic heterogeneity increases risk (no real
evidence for linguistic, religious, or social
diversity)
24Relationship Diversity and Income
25Relationship Diversity and Freedom
265. Civil War Risk is Declining
27C. State failure Sovereignty without authority.
Three routes to state failure
- Catastrophe Something overwhelms states ability
to provide even minimal protection or enforce
law. Causes - Low capacity to respond to catastrophe (civil
war, poverty, corruption)
28Corruption Perceptions Index
29C. State failure Sovereignty without authority.
Three routes to state failure
- Catastrophe Something overwhelms states ability
to provide even minimal protection or enforce
law. Causes - Low capacity to respond to catastrophe (civil
war, poverty, corruption) - Natural disasters Tend to recur in same places
30Affected by Disasters, 1975-2004 (UNEP)
31Killed by Disasters, 1975-2004 (UNEP)
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33C. State failure Sovereignty without authority.
Three routes to state failure
- Catastrophe Something overwhelms states ability
to provide even minimal protection or enforce
law. Causes - Low capacity to respond to catastrophe (civil
war, poverty, corruption) - Natural disasters Tend to recur in same places
- Disease Compare health care resources to disease
risk
34Per-Capita Health Spending
35HIV Cases
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37TB Cases
38TB Incidence per 100,000
39Malaria Deaths
40Cholera Deaths
41Polio Cases
422. Sovereignty without institutionalization
State is created which lacks de-personalized
institutions or capacity to extract taxes and
monopolize force
- Recent decolonization/independence -- New
states at risk
43b. State birth type and institutional strength
- Hypothesis States born in revolution, secession,
or nonviolent struggle for independence should be
stronger than those granted independence without
struggle (examples Congo, Uzbekistan) - IV Better birth experience (requiring
organization and solution of collective action
problems) - Tests using both GDP and Rotbergs (2004) index
of state failure as DVs reveal
44iv. The puzzle of state birth
- Good births increase later GDP and decrease odds
of state failure but - Relationship disappears when war participation is
also included as a (control) IV. Why? - Theory War produces state strength.
- Interstate war increases later growth!
- Civil war decreases later growth
- Another finding States with imposed borders
different from pre-colonization ones have lower
growth, higher rates of failure
45c. Personalized regimes Difficult to measure
- One indicator unconstrained executives (very
similar to autocracy measures). Test Results
46Estimated risk of genocide it goes up when
unconstrained executives have a powerful Army
Index of Military Personnel
47c. Personalized regimes Difficult to measure
- One indicator unconstrained executives (very
similar to autocracy measures). Test Results
unconstrained executive large military danger - Alternative experiment Compare personalist
post-Soviet regimes to institutionalized or
previously-independent regimes. DV violent
deaths - Everyone agrees Turkmenistan was personalized.
Why?
48Welcome to Turkmenistan, 2006
- A statue of our glorious leader,
President-for-Life Turkmenbashi (meaning Great
Leader of All Turkmen). - This is one of a half-dozen statues of him we
made out of gold. (Really, it was the least we
could do.)
49Youll be hearing a lot about Turkmenbashi here
- This one revolves so he may always face the sun!
50Hes everywhere!
51Turkmenbashi the Spiritual Guide
- Ruhnama is the combination autobiography,
historical fiction, and spiritual guidebook
written by Turkmenbashi himself - Must be prominently displayed in bookstores and
government offices - Required to be displayed next to and equal to the
Islamic Qur'an in mosques - Main component of education from primary school
to university. Ability to exactly recite passages
from it is required for state employment and
even a drivers license - Ruhnama was sent into space in 2006
52Every night this enormous mechanical Ruhnama
opens and passages are recited with video
53More interesting construction projects
- In Niyazov's home village of Kipchak, a complex
has been built to the memory of his mother,
including a mosque (est. at US100 million)
conceived as a symbol of the rebirth of the
Turkmen people. The walls of this edifice display
precepts from the Ruhnama along with Qur'an
suras. - August 2004 Turkmenbashi orders an ice palace to
be built in the desert. This wonder of the
world ends up being an ice skating rink.
54But wait, theres more
- Recent decrees
- Turkmenbashi ordered the closure of all rural
libraries because village Turkmen do not read - Ban on opera and ballet they are unnecessary
- Young people may not get gold tooth caps/teeth,
but rather should chew on bones - Closure of all hospitals outside Ashgabat, saying
that sick people could just come to the capital - Ordering that physicians swear an oath to him
instead of the Hippocratic Oath - All recorded music is banned
- The city of Krasnovodsk is now the city
ofTurkmenbashi
55In case youre not convinced
- In 1991 he introduced a new Turkmen alphabet,
which all are required to use - He renamed the days of the week
- Then he renamed the months of the year
- January is now Turkmenbashi
- February is now Flag (Flag Day is celebrated
on Turkmenbashis birthday) - April is Gurbansoltan Eje, the name of
Turkmenbashis mother - September is Ruhnama
- And so forth
56Was Turkmenistan headed for failure?
57Turkmenistans Path
- Exports natural gas and cotton
- 1990s Depression (Russia cut off trans-shipment
of gas) - 2000s Recovery as non-Russia pipelines began
operation - Government follows free trade policy, received
MFN status from Europe and WTO - January 2006 Government eliminates pensions to
one third of elderly, cuts pensions of remaining
two-thirds and then orders elderly to repay the
pensions received in the past two years back to
the State. Reports indicate that this may be
killing old people, whose 10 - 90 pensions were
their sole sources of support
58Turkmenistan After Turkmenbashi
- December 2006 Turkmenbashi dies suddenly without
naming successor - Gurbanguly Mälikgulyýewiç Berdimuhamedow becomes
acting President, even though someone else is
designated by the Constitution (and immediately
arrested) Berdimuhamedow elected by
fraudulent poll in Feb 2007 - Berdimuhamedow rumored to be illegitimate son of
Turkmenbashi
59Berdimuhamedows policies
- March 2007 Reverses pension decree
- Reduces cult of personality around Turkmenbashi
(but begins new one of his own) - Re-opens schools, restored the names of the
months and days of the week, announced plans to
move the gold rotating statue of from Ashgabat's
central square - Continues propaganda
60iv. Will Turkmenistan fail?
- Large oil/gas reserves ? foreign governments
willing to overlook internal policies - Highly dependent on Russia (which owns the major
gas pipelines in the region) - Recent tensions as Turkmenistan grows closer to
US (accidental explosion severs gas line to
Russia in 2009, as gas prices fall and
Turkmenistan insists that Russia honor contracts
reached at higher price) - Recent plans for alternative regional pipeline to
Turkey ? Russian threats
613. The Poverty Trapa. Official data
Concentration in Africa
62b. Satellite estimates (areas with lots of people
but few lights are assumed to be poor)
63c. Combined National Poverty Estimates
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65D. What do we know about state failure?
- Multiple paths to state failure exist no single
cause of collapse - History matters Method of independence and
original institutions help determine later
institutions - Economics matters Common element in most routes
to state failure is poverty - Greatest risk is sub-Saharan Africa recently
de-colonized, poor, vulnerable to disasters,
patterns of civil conflict, lootable resources,
etc.
66IV. Historical Case Study The Great Lakes Crisis
- Congo/Zaire Anatomy of a weak state
- Pre-colonization Strong Luba Kingdom in Katanga
area other areas attached to other kingdoms or
occupied by smaller tribes - Colonialism
- 1885 Belgium awarded the territory
- King Leopold builds railways and rubber
plantations using slave labor 5-15 million dead
(about half of population dies) - Force Publique established to maintain control
over laborers - 1908 Belgian Parliament takes over colony
- Hospitals, schools, etc built improvement.
But - No native administration developed. No local
rule allowed.
673. Decolonization
- Lack of preparation
- 1958 Kongo ethnic groups form ABAKO, occupy
areas - 1959 Belgium bans ABAKO, promises independence.
- May 1960 Elections ? Anti-Belgian party defeats
pro-Belgian party and regional parties. Coalition
government formed by Lumumba, Kasa-Vubu, and
allies such as Mobutu. - Independence declared on June 30, 1960
Congolese Parliament has only existed for a month!
684. Mutiny, Civil War, and Fragmentation
- Yellow govt
- Red rival govt
- Green Katanga secessionists, aided by Belgium
- Blue Kasai Mining State
- secessionists
694. Mutiny, Civil War, and Fragmentation
- Mutiny and Secession (July 5, 1960)
- Force Publique recruits mutiny against Belgian
officers - Belgium sends troops to suppress mutiny, even
though government has not requested aid - Belgium assists Katangan secessionists
- Luba tribes then revolt against Katanga
(secession within secession!) - Political Maneuvers
- Col. Mobutu gains control of foreign aid as Chief
of Staff, distributes it to units loyal to
himself. - UN peacekeepers deployed, but not empowered to
fight. Lumumba asks Soviets for aid, uses Soviet
airlift to suppress Kasai secessionists - Coup CIA then assists Lumumba rivals Mobutu and
Kasa-Vubu, who assemble anti-Lumumba coalition in
Parliament and dismiss him from office. - Only 67 days have passed since independence!
704. Mutiny, Civil War, and Fragmentation
- New rebellions rise as old ones fail
- Lumumba arrested by Kasa-Vubu but his V-P sets up
a Lumumbist government in the Northeast (red area
on map) - Jan 1961 At Belgian urging, Mobutu executes
Lumumba - Feb 1961 UN Security Council authorizes use of
force (only time between Korea and Persian Gulf
War) - 1961-1962 UN forces attack Katanga. Secretary
General of the UN killed when plane crashes in
Congo (cause undetermined)
71Mutiny, Civil War, and Fragmentation
- Yellow govt
- Red rival govt
- Green Katanga secessionists, aided by Belgium
- Blue Kasai Mining State
- secessionists
72d. 1964-1965 The fourth round of rebellions
- 1964 New revolts in eastern provinces by
Simbas (Swahili for lion) - Simbas seize European hostages ? military rescue
operation succeeds - Simbas defeated by government of Kasa-Vubu
- 1965 CIA assists Mobutu in coup against
Kasa-Vubu. Mobutu bans all other political
parties and establishes personal dictatorship
with title of "Father of the Nation."
735. Mobutu and Mobutism
- From Congo to Zaire
- 1967 Mobutu creates new, obligatory national
party (MPR). State becomes extension of party
The MPR must be considered as a Church and its
Founder as its Messiah. - Constitution gives President power to dismiss
governors and judges, issue decrees - 1971-2 Africanization -- Congo renamed Zaire,
citizens ordered to take African names - 1973 Salongo -- obligatory civic work
introduced (like colonial labor requirement)
74Mobutus own Africanization
- Joseph Desire Mobutu becomes
- Mobutu Sese Seko Kuku Ngbendu waza Banga
- Usual translation The all-conquering warrior
who, because of his endurance and inflexible will
to win, will go from conquest to conquest leaving
fire in his wake."
755. Mobutu and Mobutism
- From Congo to Zaire
- 1967 Mobutu creates new, obligatory national
party (MPR). State becomes extension of party
The MPR must be considered as a Church and its
Founder as its Messiah. - Constitution gives President power to dismiss
governors and judges, issue decrees - 1971-2 Africanization -- Congo renamed Zaire,
citizens ordered to take African names - 1973 Salongo -- obligatory civic work
introduced (like colonial labor requirement)
76For weeks at a time, Zaire's official press was
forbidden to mention the name of any other
Zairian than the president himself.
-- NYT
77b. Zaires troubles State weakness
- Mobutu and political allies funnel billions of
dollars into Swiss and other offshore accounts - Early 1970s World Bank refuses to fund grandiose
development program. US agrees to lend the
money. Huge public debt accumulates. - 1973 Zairianization -- expropriation of
foreign-owned businesses for the benefit of
political allies. Massive business failures
follow. - 1977, 1978 Invasions by Katangan exiles. French
and Moroccans defeat invasion with US transport. - 1980s Zaire used by US/allies as staging ground
for rebels in neighboring countries - 1991 Paratrooper mutiny over unpaid wages
78B. Regional Background A History of Slaughter
Zaire
791. Historical Overview Hutu vs. Tutsi in the
Great Lakes Region
- 1950s-1970s Hutu vs. Tutsi in Rwanda and
Burundi Tutsi refugees to Uganda, Congo/Zaire - 1980s Civil war in Uganda Tutsi exiles aid
Ugandan rebels ? victory - Early 1990s Tutsi exile army invades Rwanda with
help from Uganda - 1993 Arusha Accords Agreement to share power
between Hutu and Tutsi - 1993 Massacres in Burundi Hutu rebellion begins
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812. Genocide in Rwanda, 1994
821994 Genocide in Rwanda
- April 1994
- Assassination of Rwanda and Burundi presidents
(probably by Hutu extremists) - Hutu extremists kill moderate Hutus in Rwanda,
seize power, and systematically exterminate 80
of Tutsis (about 800,000 people) - Tutsi rebels immediately restart civil war, take
control of country - Hutu militants, 2 million Hutu civilians flee to
camps in Zaire
833. Flight of the Interahamwe
844. Security Issues Rwanda looks to Zaire
- Interahamwe threaten Rwandan Tutsis Control camp
resources - Zaires Tutsis (Banyamulenge) fear the
Interahamwe - Burundi Hutu rebels ally with Interahamwe
85C. From Zaire to the Democratic Republic of Congo
- Mobutu decides to preserve power by using
Interahamwe against enemies ? classifies
Banyamulenge (Zairian Tutsis) as refugees and
revokes citizenship - September 1996 South Kivu province orders all
Banyamulenge / Tutsi to leave or be sent to
camps - Rwanda sees opportunity defend Tutsi in Zaire
AND eliminate Interahamwe - October 1996 Anti-Mobutu ADFL revolt sponsored
by Rwanda, led by Kabila (fought Mobutu in the
1960s!)
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874. 1996-1997 The Zaire War
- Rebels attack Hutu camps, force refugees back to
Rwanda. Zaire army melts away. - All of Mobutus regional enemies aid the ADFL.
- May 1997 ADFL seizes power factional
infighting begins - ADFL renames Zaire the DRC
88D. Africas World War
- Origins of the DRC War
- 1997 Kabila wins power struggle within ADFL
- Early 1998 Kabila seeks independence from
sponsors (Rwanda, Uganda) - Kabila expels Rwandan forces / Banyamulenge ?
Rebellion in Kivu (again) - The Maelstrom The war goes regional
- Pro-rebel intervention Uganda, Rwanda, and later
Burundi (pro-Tutsi) - Pro-government intervention Angola, Zimbabwe,
Namibia, Sudan, Chad, Hutu rebels in Burundi,
Interahamwe - Other involvement Both sides in neighboring
Congo Republic war, Ethiopia and Eritrea (Sudan ?
Ethiopia ? Eritrea)
89Africas World War
903. Fragmentation
- Military Stalemate
- Rwanda-Ugandaconflict
- Rebel organizations fragment
- About 2-4 million die, mostly civilians
91E. No war, no peace
- War formally ended by negotiation in 2003 after
Kabila assassinated (son takes power) - Death toll still 1000/day in 2004 many small
militias carry out massacres, but majority dies
of starvation and disease due to ongoing anarchy - July 2006 Elections finally held by transitional
government. Kabila fails to win majority ? his
forces then attack the forces of his competitor
in the upcoming runoff ?Kabila wins 70 of vote - Rwanda still sponsors some militias, which often
clash with government forces - By 2009, death rate actually increases to
45,000/month. Best guess 5.4 million dead
since conflict began.