The End of Industrialism

1
The End of IndustrialismGoing Home

• Planning for Hard Times
• Presented
• by
• Pat Murphy, Executive Director
• Community Solutions
• Yellow Springs, OH 45387
• October 27, 2007

2
Community Solutions Vision Mission

• Vision To reduce energy consumption everywhere
  in every way through community and personal
  action
• Mission To provide knowledge and practices to
  support low energy lifestyles in the household
  economic sector (food, housing, transportation)
• Key Assumptions
• Peak Oil and Climate Change are interrelated
• Must become sustainable watchword of our
  times
• Sustainability can be, and must be, measured

3
Community Solution Historical View

• For 10,000 years the world was Agrarian
• 200 years ago Industrialism began
• Steam Engine James Watt 1769 (technology)
• Wealth of Nations Adam Smith 1776
  (philosophy)
• Fundamental to colonialism past and present
• Industrialism based on fossil fuels, machines
  and competition
• Agrarianism based on land, biology (water, air)
  and cooperation
• Industrialism is not sustainable
• Agrarianism is sustainable
• World will become more Agrarian one way or the
  other
• An Agrarian world can include bypass surgery and
  Internet
• There are many intermediate technologies

4
Fossil Fuel History and Future

• Major increase in coal burning from 1875 1925
• Oil usage began in first quarter of 20th century
• Oil/Natural gas hyper growth from 1945
• Accelerated population growth

5
Population Increase and CO2
2007
1945

• From 2.4 billion people in 1945 to 6.6 billion in
  2007
• Fossil fuels feed our economy and our
  population
• 1 pound of fossil fuel generates 2.6 pounds of
  CO2

6
The Beginning of the End

• Running low on oil
• Petroleum Geologists (ASPO)
• All fossil fuels finite
• Predictions began in 1970s
• Running low on atmosphere
• Climate scientists (NOAA)
• Carbon absorption finite
• Predictions began in 1970s

2006
7
Sustainability Defined and Measured
Sustainable 1 ton/person

• Sustainability defined 1 ton/CO2 per person
  per year
• 20 of 200 nations with 70 of population

8
The Industrial Century 1930 2030

• Olduvai Gorge Metaphor Richard Duncan Oil,
  Gas, Coal
• 1945 Country still Agrarian just before
  hyper growth
• Went from 3 boe/c to 12 boe/c 4 to 1 increase

9
Energy (and CO2) Inequity
Region Pop.
US 4.5 300m
OECD-L 10.5 700m
ROW 85 5,700m

• Ratio of US and OECDL
• to ROW (ROW1)
• US per capita energy use/CO2 7/ 8 times ROW
  citizens
• US with 4.5 of population has generated 27 of
  CO2

10
World and U.S. Household Sector Energy
World
US
Global Use
US Use

• Measure of per capita barrels of oil equivalent
  (BOE)
• Each American uses more energy for food than 5.7
  billion people use for everything!

11
The Inconvenient Truth

• Western Industrial life style is threatening
  life itself
• China India (2.5 billion people) have chosen
  industrialism
• Consumerism replaced socialism/communism
• Ecological deterioration is accelerating
• What kind of world will we leave our children,
  grandchildren and great grandchildren? What will
  they say of us? Will our great grand children
  say, "What kind of monsters must they have been?
• US Representative Roscoe Bartlett (Rep) ASPO
  2006

12
Beginning the Change (to Sustainability?)

• Three options Plan A, Plan B, Plan C
• Plan A Business as usual (new fuels). Same
  lifestyle
• Plan B Replace fossil fuels with wind/solar.
  Same lifestyle
• Plan C The Partys Over. Change lifestyle. Cut
  back fuels
• Plan A Denial Fuel Cell, Nuclear Fusion,
  Carbon Capture
• The record is bleak. Big potential for war.
• Plan B Substitution Wind, solar, biofuels
• Wind solar still about 1. Agri-fuels (food of
  the poor)
• Plan C Redesign Curtailment and Community
• Use intermediate technologies
• Reduce consumption change life style
• Focus on household sector food, house, car

13
Community Solutions Targets

• Vision Mission Summarized
• To reduce energy consumption through community
  and personal action in the household economic
  sector including food, housing, and
  transportation
• Agrarian Food System This presentation
• House Deep Retrofit Linda Wigington
• Smart Jitney Bob Steinbach

14
U.S. Food System 10 for 1 Ratio

• Replaced labor with fossil fuels
• From .05 to 10 fossil calories
• Labor efficient, energy negative
• land inefficient, soil destructive
• Varies by food type
• All foods 1 for 10
• Factory meat 1 for 16
• Sodas 1 for 30
• ROW (5.7 billion) is quasi Agrarian Mostly
  Sustainable
• Takes no fossil fuel calories to provide food
  calories
• This means 2550, or more, of people grow food

15
Post WWII Policy Destroy Family Farm

• In 1945 US was still Agrarian to a degree
• US Declared War on Farmers in late 1940s
• Ezra Benson Eisenhower era (1950s) Get Big or
  Get Out
• Earl Butz Nixon era (1960s) Adapt or Die
• Battle was over by the 1970s

16
Needed to Slander Agrarians

• We are worldlywise, cool, hip, sophisticated,
  blasé, trendy, upscale, tony, chic (we being
  machine people)
• They are provincial, unsophisticated, hayseeds,
  bumpkins, yokels, hicks, peasants, hillbillies,
  natives, indigenous, county-cousins, rednecks,
  clodhoppers, (they being land people)
• Our work empowering. Theirs back breaking
  mind numbing
• Probably the biggest blunder (or crime) in
  history
• Hurt 100s of millions of people around the world
• Including 10s of millions of Americans
• Assault continues with WTO programs
• Indigenous farmers (U.S. worldwide) are
  becoming serfs

17
Industrial vs. Agrarian Comparison
Country US China Ratio
Population (106) 300 1,320 4.400
Total area (acres) (106) 2,378 2,370 0.997
Cropland acres (106) 437 306 0.700
Ag workers ((106) 3 510.8 170.267
CO2/capita 19.7 2.9 0.147
Cropland/ag workers (acres) 145.7 0.6 0.004

• Agrarian countries use more labor for healthier
  foods, soils
• Agricultural workers US 1, China 38
• China gets 6 times the calories per acre while
  preserving soil
• US generates 6 times the CO2 per person

18
Cubas Move to Modern Agrarianism

• Experienced Peak Oil 1990
• Severe and Rapid
• Extreme societal change
• Searched country for farmers
• In 18 months became 80 Organic
• Major reforestation program
• Urban gardens 50 of vegetables
• Cubans diet changed
• Pork to veggies
• Free Medical Care/Education/Sports
• Few cars/goods, tiny houses

19
Cuba Before

• Rapid change dictated
• by hunger, not Fidel
• Average Cuban lost 20 lbs.
• Government changed land policies rapidly (like
  Roosevelt)
• Cuba only country to achieve sustainable
  development award!
• World Wildlife Fund 2006 Living Planet report
• UN Human Development Index Ecological
  Footprint

20
Understanding the Food System

• Cant manage if you cant measure to measure
  is to know
• Need to understand energy/food numbers
• Ignore the Supermarkets (Agribusiness) Look in
  the fields
• Two key divisions of our food system
• Meat and Animal Products Feed and Fodder
• Contained Animal Feeding Operations (CAFO)
• Corn, Soybeans, Hay as raw materials
• Most of acreage devoted to this
• Plants Food
• Basic food is healthy grains, vegetables,
  grass-fed meat
• Manufacturing process depletes plant food value

21
Harvested Acreage The Basic Numbers

• 268 million acres planted the source of our
  food
• All food is plant based animals are
  intermediaries
• The top 3 support manufactured/CAFO products

22
Grains Main Staples (Calorie) Crops

• Grains are the basis of animal manufacturing
  process
• Limited grains for personal consumption

23
The Big Grain Crop Corn

• US is worlds largest corn producer
• 11.8 billion bushels produced in 2004 10
  billion domestic
• Land provides 1,900 pounds per person per year
• 2,200 pounds average food weight per year per
  person
• Little corn eaten directly a raw material for
  meat and sweets
• 6.2 billion bushels used for CAFO meat
• Much of rest for High Fructose Corn Syrup (HFCS)
• Heroin of the food system
• Michael Pollan We are the corn people

24
Grains Wheat

• Largest grain crop after corn
• Used primarily for human food rather than feed
• Domestic use 1,172 million bushels
• 184 pounds unprocessed wheat consumed per person
• Wheat for humans is highly processed (97 white
  flour)
• White flour (1907) is a nutritionally stripped
  product
• Vitamins added back by processors inadequate 20
  out, 4 in
• Raw material for poor quality manufactured foods
• Processing removes fiber, vitamins, minerals,
  phytochemicals
• Fed to animals along with 79 million bushels
  plain wheat
• Other grains sorghum, barley, rice, oats,
  millet, rye 12
• Example of lack of variety

25
Oilseeds

• Soybean Unnatural food for animals bad fats
  for humans
• Barely existed in early 20th century

26
Soybeans

• US is worlds largest soybean producer
• 3,123 million bushels produced in 2004
• 2,021 million bushels used for domestic
  consumption
• 400 pounds per person per year
• For animal feed and manufactured food
• Soy beans consist of oil, meat, and hulls
• After oil extracted, carbohydrate residue fed to
  animals
• Made into harmful trans-fats (hydrogenated
  soybean oil)
• Cocaine of the food system
• Sunflower, peanut, canola, flaxseed, safflower,
  mustard 6

27
Hay Largest crop after grains and oilseeds

• Largest crop after corn soybeans
• Perennial grasses/legumes used as feed
• 158 million tons in 2004
• 1,073 pounds per person
• Enters American diet through beef cattle
• and dairy cows
• If corn provides meat, hay provides milk

28
Healthier Crops

• Very small part of acreage planted
• Priority is for bad food

29
Sugars, Legumes and Nuts

• Sugars
• Sugars mostly replaced with high fructose corn
  syrup
• Sugar acreage 60 beets and 40 cane
• Legumes
• Dried beans, dried peas and lentils
• Low energy replacements for CAFO products
• .7 U.S. harvested acreage for beans, peas and
  lentils
• Two pounds of beans about equal to one pound meat
• Nuts
• .3 of harvested acreage for nuts
• Nuts can replace some CAFO meat

30
Fruits, Vegetables, Nuts (F-V-N)

• Surprisingly small amount of acreage
• Americans eat about half whats recommended

31
Vegetables

• Vegetables divided into fresh vegetables
• and vegetables for processing.
• 30 Main Vegetables
• artichokes, asparagus, snap beans, lima
  beans, beets, broccoli, cabbage, carrots,
  cauliflower, celery, sweet corn, cucumbers,
  eggplant, endive, escarole, garlic, head lettuce,
  romaine and leaf lettuce, mushrooms, onions, bell
  peppers, potatoes, radishes, spinach, sweet
  potatoes, tomatoes, green peas, chili peppers,
  spinach, and other miscellaneous vegetables
• Only 1.1 of farmland is used for growing
  vegetables.

32
Very Little Vegetable Diversity (lbs)

• Most potato consumption is French Fries

33
Fruits

• Divided into fresh fruits and
• fruits for processing.
• 35 Main Fruits
• apples, apricots, avocados, bananas,
  cherries, cantaloupes, cranberries, grapes,
  grapefruit, honeydew, kiwifruit, lemons, limes,
  mangoes, nectarines, oranges, papayas, peaches,
  pears, pineapples, plums, prunes, strawberries,
  tangelos, tangerines, temple oranges, watermelon,
  blackberries, boysenberries, cranberries, dates,
  figs, loganberries, olives, raspberries, and
  other miscellaneous fruit and berries.
• 1.1 of farmland allocated to fruit production

34
Lack of Fruit Diversity

• Much of the fruit is consumed as beverages

35
Acreage Distribution Implications

• Most of acreage for meat products and
  manufactured foods
• Corn for CAFO feed and HFCS for grocery
  manufacturing
• Soybeans for CAFO feed and hydrogenated oil for
  manufactured foods
• Wheat for white flour

36
Industrialized Food Results

• Bad Health
• 5,000 yearly medical expenses, 2,300 food
  expenses
• Cheap food contributes to bad health
• Tortured animals
• Lack of Diversity
• Deteriorating soil
• Poisoned waterways
• Fossil water drawdown

37
Bad Food and Poor Health

• U.S. is the unhealthiest of industrialized rich
  nations
• Life expectancy of 77, lower than Canadas 80
• U.S. medical costs per capita twice European
  countries
• Cheap food means expensive medical care
• Two thirds of Americans are overweight or obese
• Food system the main culprit
• Two major flaws CAFO meat and Manufactured
  Foods
• Two major destructive foods Corn and Soybeans
• Foolishness vs. Wisdom
• US spends 2,500 for food and 5,000 for medical
  care
• EU spends 3,500 for food and 2,500 for medical
  care

38
Atwood Study Poor Food Choices

• Nutritional Density Popularity
• What People Should Eat What people
  Eat
• Highest to lowest Lowest to
  highest
• Broccoli 1 Tomatoes
• Spinach 2 Oranges
• Brussels Sprouts 3 Potatoes
• Lima Beans 4 Lettuce
• Peas 5 Sweet Corn
• Asparagus 6 Bananas
• Artichokes 7 Carrots
• Cauliflower 8 Cabbage
• Sweet Potatoes 9 Onions
• Carrots 10 Sweet potatoes
• Sweet corn 11 Peas
• Potatoes 12 Spinach
• Cabbage 13 Broccoli
• Tomatoes 14 Lima beans
• Banana 15 Asparagus

39
Torturing Food Animals for Cheap Meat

• Animals, like humans, have a natural way of life
• Cows, goats, and sheep graze, pigs root, chickens
  scratch
• CAFOs deny these natural behaviors
• Extreme stress (pain) for the animal
• No sunshine (constant artificial lighting!)
• No fresh air (never go outside)
• Many other torments
• Very short horrible lives
• Live in fecal material (ground/air)
• Antibiotics required to keep animals alive
• High risk to human health

40
Animal Products Not Grandparents Meat

• Animals earlier always part of diet
• Hunting and grazing
• Animals no longer graze freely
• Inhumane CAFO conditions
• Fed wrong foods
• Diet injures them
• Growing feed crops requires enormous amounts of
  fossil fuels
• FAO Report Livestock's long shadow 2006
• Livestock rearing creates more CO2 equivalent
  than cars
• Americans eat twice what they used to
• US-271 lbs, Asia-60 lbs, Africa-40 lbs, Central
  America-103 lbs

41
Manufactured Foods Little Diversity

• 320,000 food and beverage products in U.S.
• Average supermarket carries 30,000- 40,000
• People dont eat 30,000 to 40,000 different
  things
• Recipes not food combinations of white flour,
  corn sweeteners hydrogenated soybean oil with
  chemical flavoring coloring
• Americas Flavor Industry along New Jersey
  Turnpike
• Manufactures 2/3 of flavor additives sold in U.S.
• Flavoring/ coloring industry annual sales - 1.4
  billion
• Also provides shaping and texturing products
• Takes a lot of fossil fuels for a small number of
  foods

42
Soil Destruction Water Drawdown

• Agriculture uses most of U.S water
• Ogallala Drawdown occurring
• Irrigation vital to food supply
• Not sustainable
• Erosion
• Topsoil becoming more shallow
• Part of giant monocultures
• Quality of top soil declining pesticides
• 194850 million lbs. 7 loss to insects
• 196535 million lbs.
• 1989806 million lbs.
• 2000985 million lbs. 13 loss to insects
• Agrochemicals changing soil composition

43
Why Dont We Know This?

• Major cigarette companies are major food
  companies
• Grocery Manufacturers of America control food
  info
• Michael Pollan If it has a health claim, dont
  eat it
• 30 billion advertising for food 10 billion
  for children

44
Conspiracy with USDA

• Marion Nestle Food Politics
• Explains corporate control
• Recommends Eat less, eat fruits, vegetables and
  whole grains, avoid junk food
• Following her advice would destroy industrial
  agriculture
• And harm medical providers
• Food companies control nutrition
• And information
• USDA supports agribusiness

45
Summary Changing Times

• Peak Oil and climate change will dramatically
  alter our future
• Cant have 10-to-1 fossil fuel to calorie ratio
  any longer
• At the core of the change will be a changed diet
• Sustainability implies measurable Agrarianism
• Must reverse tragic move from agrarianism to
  industrialism
• From 2 of employment farmers to 25 (or more)
• U.S. will become more Agrarian like it or not
• Agrarianism implies healthof people, animals,
  landscapes, soils
• Industrial Agriculture is destructive of almost
  everything
• Food consumerism is a disease, not a lifestyle

46
Recommendations

• 1. Learn Ignorance of food system is appalling
• Due to deliberate action of food industry and
  USDA
• Learning includes understanding plight of workers
  animals
• Everyone must master nutrition
• 2. Cut consumption to minimal healthy levels
  40 less
• 3. Change your diet to a healthier one starting
  NOW
• Coming crisis cannot support current medical
  spending
• Eat seasonally and locally
• 4. Buy from Community Supported Agriculture (CSA)
  farmers
• Rebuild family farms
• 5. Plant a backyard garden Must see food as
  life

47
Wendell Berry The Unsettling of America

• Earths growing numbers raises the specter of a
  famine more catastrophic than the world has ever
  seen.
• Wendell Berry we should be at work overhauling
  all our assumptions about ourselves and what we
  have done.If we are heading toward apocalypse,
  then obviously we must undertake an ordeal of
  preparation. We must cleanse ourselves of
  slovenliness, laziness and waste. We must learn
  to discipline ourselves, to restrain ourselves,
  to need less.We must understand what the health
  of the earth requires, and we must put that
  before all other needs...let us undertake the
  labors of wisdom and make the necessary
  sacrifices of luxury and comfort. The
  Unsettling of America, 1977