A Smart Tool for a Sustainable Future

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A Smart Tool for a Sustainable Future
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Chicago skyline PM2.5 lt 10 µg/m3
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Chicago skyline PM2.5 20 µg/m3
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Canada Wide Standard 35µg/m3
Chicago skyline PM2.5 35 µg/m3
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Mortality

• An increase in fine particulate pollution (PM2.5)
  of 10 µg/m3 is associated with an increase of
• 1.8 in total mortality (death)
• 1.4 in cardiovascular (CV) mortality
• After 1990 a ban on coal for residential heating
  in the UK resulted in a reduction of 35.6 µg/m3
  in black smoke (fine PM). The result was a 10.3
  decrease in annual CV mortality
• In Hong Kong, a 50 reduction in SO2 was followed
  by a 2.4 reduction in CV death.
• Each increase of 10 µg/m3 was associated with a
  6 increase in risk of cardiopulmonary mortality
  in the ACS study (U.S.)
• Living near a major road (PM and NO2) was
  associated with a relative risk for
  cardiopulmonary mortality of 1.95 (Hamilton and
  Amsterdam)

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Morbidity

• A transient increase in the concentration of
  PM2.5 of 25 µg/m3 has been associated with an
  increased risk for myocardial infarction within
  1-2 hours of exposure.
• High concentrations of PM2.5 over 24 hours
  increases cardiovascular risk.
• Living near a busy road increases the likelihood
  of several respiratory health effects.

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Growth Issues

• Population to grow by four million people by 2031
  (11 million total).
• Golden Horseshoe to be third-largest urban land
  area in North America.
• Commute times to increase by 45.
• Automobile emissions to increase by 42.

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Complex Planning Issues

• Lack of coordinated approach to urban planning.
• Are health and local environmental impacts
  measured properly?
• How are sustainability objectives measured?
• Lack of full-cost accounting of different
  approaches.
• The regions current analytical tools have not
  integrated transportation, environment, health,
  economic, and social relationships in a
  comprehensive manner.

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SO2 Emissions Over Southern Ontario Using SMOKE
(July 13 - 16, 1999)
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NOX Emissions Over Southern Ontario Using SMOKE
(July 13 - 16, 1999)
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PM2.5 Concentrations Over Southern Ontario Using
Models-3 / CMAQ (July 11 - 19, 1999)
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O3 Concentrations Over Southern Ontario Using
Models-3 / CMAQ (July 11 - 19, 1999)
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Inter-Relationships
Economic Regional Development

• Infrastructure
• Municipal Works
• Transportation

Road Congestion
Industrial Institutional Residential
Air Quality GHG Impacts
Public Policy is Linked to Each Component
Social Impacts
Impact on Health Environment
Socio-Economic and Environmental Costs
Infrastructure costs
Balance?
Cost of Decisions
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ReFSoRT
November 18 21, 2003
A Simplified Source-Receptor Model for Estimating
Air Quality Impacts of Policy Measures
Emission Inventories
Prepared by Mike Lepage Bob Caton, RWDI
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Estimating Clean Air Benefits
Changes in Fuel/Energy Use by Sector, Region
Energy2020
Changes in CAC Emissions (SOX, NOX, etc.)
Energy 2020
Changes in Ambient Air Quality (PM2.5, ozone)
ReFSoRT
Health Impacts (mortality, morbidity)
AQVM
Changes in Individual Welfare (WTP)
Aggregation of Damages Across Effects,
Individuals, Time
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Non-Linear RollbackSulphate Example
?PM fr x ?SO4/(SO4-SO4b)
?SO4/(SO4-SO4b) ?k/k ?Es/Es ?k/k ?Es/Es
?k is dependent on changes in NOX, SOX and VOC
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NAPS and Census Division Coverage in ReFSoRT
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Model Domains (MM5 and CMAQ) and ReFSoRT
Subregions
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Comparison between SRT and CMAQ modelling for
Ozone
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Inter-Relationships
Economic Regional Development

• Infrastructure
• Municipal Works
• Transportation

Road Congestion
Industrial Institutional Residential
Air Quality GHG Impacts
Public Policy is Linked to Each Component
Social Impacts
Impact on Health Environment
Socio-Economic and Environmental Costs
Infrastructure costs
Balance?
Cost of Decisions
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CMAQ Model Domain, ReFSoRT Subregions and
Micro-subregions
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Key Components for a Risk Assessment for PM

• Concentration-response (C-R) functions
• C-R functions describe the relationship between
  the health endpoint of interest and concentration
  of PM2.5
• cardiovascular disease
• non-fatal heart attack
• asthma/allergy
• pulmonary/respiratory infection
• lung cancer
• C-R functions are available for long- and
  short-term exposures to PM2.5.
• Additional C-R functions are available for SO2,
  nitrogen oxides, and volatile organic compounds.

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Economics Component
Economics is about clarifying choice from a
financial and social perspective
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Thank you