Level 3 Irrational Exuberance, Candlesticks, Homework

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Level 3Irrational Exuberance,Candlesticks,
Homework
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Irrational ExuberanceRobert J Schiller

• The Stock Market Level in Historical Perspective
• Part one Structural Factors
• Precipitating Factors The Internet, Baby Boom,
  and Other Events
• Amplification Mechanisms Naturally Occurring
  Ponzi Processes
• Part two Cultural Factors
• The News Media
• New Era Economic Thinking
• New Eras and Bubbles around the World
• Part three Psychological Factors
• Psychological Anchors for the Market
• Herd Behavior and Epidemics
• Part four Attempts to Rationalize Exuberance
• Efficient Markets, Random Walks, and Bubbles
• Investor Learning and Unlearning
• Part five A call to action
• 11. Speculative Volatility in a Free Society

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Irrational Exuberance

• Memorization is key
• The Memory Book by Harry Lorayne
• Break down the information in pieces
• Precipitating Factors
• CCI
• BEG
• GOD
• IEG

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Irrational Exuberance

• CCI
• Capitalist Explosion
• Erosion of worker solidarity
• Compensation with stock price
• Labor turning into a commodity
• Cultural and Political Changes
• Upward pressure felt on stocks due to tax,
  materialism, wealth affect
• Information Technology
• The public perception that the revolution creates

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Irrational Exuberance

• Amplification Mechanism
• How the effect of the 12 preceding factors is
  amplified by
• Investor confidence
• Investor expectations
• Influences on investor demand

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Irrational Exuberance

• Investor confidence
• The belief in the resilience of the market seems
  to stem from a generalized feeling of optimism
  and assurance.
• The upward bias of the market will surely never
  fail
• Note Nikkei 225

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Irrational Exuberance

• Investor Expectations
• The rise in materialistic sentiment and
  individualism is amplified by the psychological
  impact of the strong up trend in the market

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Irrational Exuberance

• Influence on Investor Demand
• Public Attention
• Fast Money
• CNBC
• Investment Clubs
• Feedback Loops
• Ponzi Schemes

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Candles

• KNOW the formations and UNDERSTAND their meaning
• Either name the formation, if not discuss the
  meaning
• the bearish candle formation developing
  underneath the intersection of the 50/100 MVAs
  is signaling a potential continued move in the
  direction of the trend
• the shooting star underneath the intersection of
  the.

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Psychology

• Bodies
• Large bodies are powerful moves
• Smaller bodies are less powerful
• Dojis are indecision or pause
• Shadows
• Short shadows give body credibility
• Long shadows can reveal strong support or
  resistance

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Psychology (contd)

• Shaven Head
• Bullish close, powerful move up
• Bearish close, strong resistance
• Shaven Bottom
• Bullish close, strong support
• Bearish close, powerful move down

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Homework
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Candles
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Candles
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Candles
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Inter-market
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Inter-market
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Inter-market
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Inter-market
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Elliott Wave analysis