Modeling the Earth System at INPE

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Modeling theEarth System at INPE

• Domingos Urbano Paulo Nobre
• National Institute for Space Research INPE
• Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate
  Studies CPTEC
• Center for Earth System Sciences CCST
• SAMOC-3
• Rio de Janeiro/Niterói, 11-13 May 2010

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outline

• Climate Change research programs in Brazil
• Global climate model development
• Near future enhancements on seasonal to
  interannual climate predictions at INPE

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Climate Change Research Programs in Brazil

• Rede CLIMA Brazilian network on Climate Change
  Research (CCR)
• 50 research groups on 10 Focal points
• Grant US 15 million over 5 years
• INCT-MC National Institute on Science and
  Technology for CC
• 26 research projects covering the science of
  climate change, impact-adaptation-vulnerability
  studies, and mitigation technological
  developments in climate modeling and geosensors
• 90 research groups in Brazil and 8 countries 400
  researchers and students involved
• Grant US 3.7 M for 3 years
• FAPESP program on CCR
• New 15 TF supercomputer facility at INPE
• Brazilian Model of the Global Climate System
  (ESM)
• Grant of US 5 M per year during the next 10
  years

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Rede CLIMA Focal Points
Biodiversity and Ecossistems MPEG, Belém
Water Resources UFPE, Recife
Regional Development UnB, Brasília
Cities and Industry Unicamp, Campinas
Renewable Energy COPPE / UFRJ, RJ
Agriculture EMBRAPA, Campinas
Human Health Fiocruz, RJ
Economy of Climate Change USP, São Paulo
Climate Modeling INPE CST
Coastal Zones FURG, Rio Grande
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INCT - MC

•  

GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL
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INPEs Supercomputer for Climate Change Research
...
Sustained Throughput 15 Tflops
Main Memory 20 TBytes
Primary Storage 3 PBytes
Aquisition Installation Early 2010
Total budget US 25 M
and will make it possible to run global climate
model simulations at high spatial resolutions to
grid sizes of 20 km !
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Development of a Global Climate System Model

• A single proposal will be selected
• Consortium of research institutions lead by São
  Paulo State institution (but engaging
  institutions from all over Brazil and from
  abroad)
• Build-up of existing experience and models
  developed in Brazil
• Applied to climate change research
• No black-box solution accepted
• Aims to developing capacity in all components of
  Global Climate System Modelling
• Strongly associated to PhD training
• Four years duration US 1.5 M

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Brazilian Model of the Global Climate System
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CPTEC.2.0 T213L64
GFDL's FMS
SSiB NCARs IBIS
MOM4, Global, 1/8 x 1/8 deep tropics, L50
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INPEs Climate Forecast Coupled Suite Goal
Data Assimilation
Coupled Forecast
AGCM
Atmos FCST daily/hourly
SFC fluxes
OGCM
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INPEs CGCM FMS implementation
Coupler Init
Coupled Loop
Flux Ocean to Ice
Update Ice Model up
Atmos Loop
Update Atmos Model
Fast
Atmos Loop End
Update Ice Model down
Flux Ice to Land
Slow Loop
Land Loop
Fast
Update Land Model
Land Loop End
Update Ice Model down
Flux Ice to Ocean
Ocean Loop
Fast
Update Ocean Model
Ocean Loop End
Coupled Loop
Coupler End
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Component models

• Atmos GCM
• CPTEC.2.0 mpi/open_mp,
• Semi-Lagrangian,
• Resolution T62L64 T126L64 T213L64
• Increased PBL and Stratosphere vertical
  resolution
• RAS/Grell deep cumulus convection
• Improved stratus parameterization scheme
• atmospheric chemistry aerosols
• Land Surface Model IBIS/INLAND?
• Dynamic vegetation
• Carbon Cycle
• Fire Model
• Improved hires land surface hidrology

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Component models

• OGCM
• MOM4,
• Global, 1/4 x 1/4 deep tropics,
• L50, 10m spacing upper 250 m,
• Philander and Pakanowski vertical mixing
• free surface,
• fresh water flux,
• river inflow
• Dynamical ice model (SIS)?
• Biogeochemistry model (Topaz, Bling)
• GFDLs FSM coupler
• Up to 3-hourly coupling interval (lim. atmos
  radiation)

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INPE developments on the atmospheric chemistry
modeling
CATT
Coupled Chemistry-Aerosol-Tracer Transport model
to the Brazilian developments on the RAMS
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Including plume rise mechanism trough
super-parameterization concept
1D plume-rise model for vegetation fires Biome
ForestTime duration 50 mnFire size 20 haHeat
flux 80 kWm-2 / 30 kWm-2
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INPE developments on the surface modeling
INLAND
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River flow and flooded areas
HAND

• Aplications over
• Amazônia
• Pantanal
• Araguaia
• Implications
• Flux exchanges between sfc and atmos
• Hydrology
• Carbon cycle

Costa et al., in press
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LANDSAT, terra firme apears as flat uniform land
Bacia ASU
NW of Manaus, 18.000 km2
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HAND Terrain Map
3 Classes
HAND
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Processes ResolvedRiver inflow effects on
salinity
MOM3 w/o river discharge
MOM4 with river discharge
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Ocean biogeochemistry

• MOM4p1 OCMIP-2 (diagnostic) 3 functional
  groups prognostic
• Challenges
• Dynamic Green Ocean Models (Le Quéré al. 2005)
  10 functiona groups
• Emergent Biogeography (Follows al. 2007)
  emerging functional groups

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Ice Cover SimulationINPE COUPLED O-A GCM
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OGCM Grid
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INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily
coupling30 days avrg spinup SST
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INPE-CPTEC CGCM V.2.0 T213 L64, Kuo, 4 x daily
coupling30 days avrg spinup Precip
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Few results from INPEs CGCM V.1.0

• Nobre et al., 2009
• Journal of Climate, vol. 22

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Vegetation Scenarios
Nobre et al. (2009)?
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1st jEOF SST-Wind Stress200 yrs ctrl run
ENSO like mode of variability reproduced by
CGCM and amplified by AM deforestation
Defor3
CTRL
Nobre et al. (2009)?
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Long term departures average (experiment
control) 20 yrs 10 member

• Local rainfall reduction temperature increase
  over AM (gt CGCM)
• Precipitation and temperature increase over
  eastern OP (is a coupled response -- def.)

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Amazon Deforestation Experiment Increased El
Niño Conditions
PRECIPITATION
TEMPERATURE
Statistically significant departures are shaded
Nobre et al. (2009)
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Zonal Velocities over the Pacific Ctrl
(contours) Deforest Ctrl (shades)?
Nobre et al. (2009)?
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Pacific Thermocline DepthDeforest Ctrl
(shades)?
Nobre et al. (2009)?
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mensage

• Amazon deforestation induces global rainfall,
  atmospheric, and oceanic circulation pattern
  changes which resemble ENSO-like states
• There seems to exist a positive feedback between
  Amazon rainfall reduction associated with
  tropical rainforest clearing and ENSO conditions
  in the coupled model results
• Fully coupled ocean-atmosphere modeling is
  central to produce the global-scale rainfall and
  circulation pattern changes due to tropical
  deforestation.

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Planned enhancements of Seasonal and Interannual
climate predictions at CPTEC

• Enhance AGCM resolution to T213L64 op
• Enhance CGCM resolution to global
• AGCM T213L64
• OGCM 1/8 degree lat-lon, 50 levels
• Increase FCST time to 12 months
• Increase ensemble size to 30 per model
• Multi-model RAS, Grell, Kain-Fritsch, Kuo

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Thank you

• pnobre_at_cptec.inpe.br
• domingos.urbano_at_cptec.inpe.br

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PIRATA PBR-XI e SWE-IV
CNPq 38/2009 48 XCP (1200m) 2 LADCP (bottom) 2
PCDTide Gauge
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UCTD