Knowledge Acquisition and Problem Solving

1
CS 785 Fall 2004
Knowledge Acquisition and Problem Solving
Modeling expert's reasoning
Gheorghe Tecuci tecuci_at_gmu.eduhttp//lac.gmu.edu
/
Learning Agents Center and Computer Science
Department George Mason University
2
Overview
Modeling based on the task reduction paradigm
COG analysis through task reduction
Intelligence analysis through task reduction
COA critiquing through task reduction
Workaround planning through task reduction
Guidelines for the modeling process
3
Definition of modeling
Modeling the problem solving process of a subject
matter expert means making explicit the way the
expert solves problems. It consists of expressing
informally, in English, a problem to be solved,
all the intermediary reasoning steps, and the
final solution.
Modeling is generally the most difficult part of
knowledge base and agent development.
In general the modeling is performed by the
Knowledge Engineer and the Subject Matter Expert,
and is based on some general problem solving
paradigm, such as task reduction, state space
search, or generate and test.
4
The general task reduction paradigm

• A complex problem solving task is performed by
• successively reducing it to simpler tasks
• finding the solutionsof the simplest tasks
• successively composing these solutions until the
  solution to the initial task is obtained.

S1
T1

S11
S1n
T1n
T11

S111
T111
S11m
T11m
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Question-answering based task reduction
Let T1 be the problem solving task to be
performed. Finding a solution is an iterative
process where, at each step, we consider some
relevant information that leads us to reduce the
current task to a simpler task or to several
simpler tasks. The question Q associated with
the current task identifies the type of
information to be considered. The answer A
identifies that piece of information and leads us
to the reduction of the current task.

T1
S1
Q1

S11
A1n
A11
S1n
T1n
S11a
T11a
S11b
T11b

S11b
Q11b

S11bm
S11b1
A11bm
A11b1

T11bm
T11b1
6
Expertise tasks and task reduction
These are some of the classes of problem solving
tasks
Planning
Monitoring
Prediction
Control
Critiquing
Diagnosis
Debugging
Repair
Interpretation
Identification
Design
Instruction
Analysis
An important characteristic of each class is that
its problem solving tasks can be modeled in a
similar way. For example, if we know how to
model a specific critiquing task using the task
reduction paradigm, than another critiquing task
could, in principle, be modeled in a similar
way. We will illustrate the modeling of the
following types of tasks center of gravity
analysis, intelligence analysis, course of action
critiquing, and action planning.
7
Overview
Modeling based on the task reduction paradigm
COG analysis through task reduction
Intelligence analysis through task reduction
COA critiquing through task reduction
Workaround planning through task reduction
Guidelines for the modeling process
8
Center of gravity
The center of gravity of an entity (state,
alliance, coalition, or group) is the foundation
of capability, the hub of all power and movement,
upon which everything depends, the point against
which all the energies should be directed. Carl
Von Clausewitz, On War, 1832.
If a combatant eliminates or influences the
enemys strategic center of gravity, then the
enemy will lose control of its power and
resources and will eventually fall to defeat. If
the combatant fails to adequately protect his own
strategic center of gravity, he invites
disaster. (Giles and Galvin, USAWC 1996).
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Approach to center of gravity analysis
Centers of Gravity Primary sources of moral or
physical strength, power or resistance.
Critical Capabilities Primary abilities which
merit a Center of Gravity to be identified as
such in the context of a given scenario,
situation or mission.
Critical Requirements Essential conditions,
resources and means for a Critical capability to
be fully operative.
Critical Vulnerabilities Critical Requirements
or components thereof which are deficient, or
vulnerable to neutralization, interdiction or
attack (moral/physical harm) in a manner
achieving decisive results the smaller the
resources and effort applied and the smaller the
risk and cost, the better.
Joe Strange, Centers of Gravity Critical
Vulnerabilities, 1996.
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First computational approach to COG analysis

• Approach to center of gravity analysis based on
  the concepts ofcritical capabilities, critical
  requirements and critical vulnerabilities, which
  have been recently adopted into the joint
  military doctrine.

Identify COG candidates
Test COG candidates
Identify potential primary sources of moral or
physical strength, power and resistance from
Test each identified COG candidate to determine
whether it has all the necessary critical
capabilities
Which are the critical capabilities? Are the
critical requirements of these capabilities
satisfied? If not, eliminate the candidate. If
yes, do these capabilities have any vulnerability?
Government Military People Economy Alliances Etc.
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Critical capabilities needed to be a COG
people
leader
military
receive communication from the highest level
leadership
be protected
be deployable
stay informed
exert power
communicate desires to the highest level
leadership
communicate
be indispensable
be influential
support the goal
be a driving force
support the highest level leadership
have support
have a positive impact
be irreplaceable
be influential
12
Critical capabilities needed to be a COG (cont.)
financial capacity
ideology
industrial capacity
be able to reach the people
obtain physical resources
obtain funds
be able to influence the people
acquire weapons
transport physical resources to manufacturers
be supported by the people
process physical resources
motivate actions
external support
will of multi member force
transport finished products to military
be useful to the supporting force
mutual interest
be needed by the supported force
need of cooperation
13
Leader who is a COG
Critical capability to
Corresponding critical requirement
be protected
Have means to be protected from all threats
stay informed
Have means to receive essential intelligence
Have means to communicate with the government,
the military and the people
communicate
Have means to influence the government, the
military and the people
be influential
Have reasons and determination for pursuing the
goal
be a driving force
Have means to secure continuous support from the
government, the military and the people
have support
be irreplaceable
Be the only leader to maintain the goal
14
Illustration Saddam Hussein (Iraq 2003)
Critical capability to
be protected
Corresponding critical requirement
Have means to be protected from all threats
?
Means
Vulnerabilities
Republican Guard Protection Unit ? loyalty can be
influenced by US-led coalition
Iraqi Military ? loyalty can be influenced by
US-led coalition ? can be destroyed by US-led
coalition
Complex of Iraqi Bunkers ? location known to US
led coalition ? design known to US led
coalition ? can be destroyed by US-led coalition

• System of Saddam Doubles
• ? loyalty of Saddam Doubles to Saddam can be
  influenced by US-led coalition
• ? can be uncovered by US-led coalition

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Formalization of COG analysis Sicily 1943 example
The will_of_Allied_Forces_1943 is a COG candidate
with respect to the cohesion of Allied_Forces_1943
The will of Allied Forces 1943 is a strategic
COG candidate that cannot be eliminated because
it has all the necessary critical capabilities
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
Sicily_1943
. . .
What kind of scenario is Sicily_1943?
The will_of_Allied_Forces_1943 is a COG candidate
with respect to the cohesion of Allied_Forces_1943
Sicily_1943 is a war scenario
The will of Allied Forces 1943 is a strategic
COG candidate that cannot be eliminated because
it has all the necessary critical capabilities
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
Sicily_1943 which is a war scenario
. . .
16
The will_of_Allied_Forces_1943 is a COG candidate
with respect to the cohesion of Allied_Forces_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
Sicily_1943 which is a war scenario
The will of Allied Forces 1943 is a strategic
COG candidate that cannot be eliminated because
it has all the necessary critical capabilities
Which is an opposing force in the Sicily_1943
scenario?
. . .
Allied_Forces_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
Allied_Forces_1943
The will_of_Allied_Forces_1943 is a COG candidate
with respect to the cohesion of Allied_Forces_1943
Is Allied_Forces_1943 a single-member force or a
multi-member force?
The will of Allied Forces 1943 is a strategic
COG candidate that cannot be eliminated because
it has all the necessary critical capabilities
Allied_Forces_1943 is a multi-member force
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
Allied_Forces_1943 which is a multi-member force
. . .
17
The will_of_Allied_Forces_1943 is a COG candidate
with respect to the cohesion of Allied_Forces_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
Allied_Forces_1943 which is a multi-member force
The will of Allied Forces 1943 is a strategic
COG candidate that cannot be eliminated because
it has all the necessary critical capabilities
What type of strategic COG candidate should I
consider for this multi-member force?
. . .
The will_of_Allied_Forces_1943 is a COG candidate
with respect to the cohesion of Allied_Forces_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the multi-member nature of
Allied_Forces_1943
I consider a candidate corresponding to the
multi-member nature of the force
The will of Allied Forces 1943 is a strategic
COG candidate that cannot be eliminated because
it has all the necessary critical capabilities
I consider a candidate corresponding to a member
of the multi-member force
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to a member of the
Allied_Forces_1943
. . .
18
The will_of_the_people_of_US_1943 is a strategic
COG candidate with respect to the
people_of_US_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to a member of the
Allied_Forces_1943
The will of people of US 1943 is a strategic COG
candidate that cannot be eliminated because it
has all the necessary critical capabilities
Which is a member of Allied_Forces_1943?
. . .
US_1943
. . .
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
US_1943
What kind of force is US 1943?
The will_of_the_people_of_US_1943 is a strategic
COG candidate with respect to the
people_of_US_1943
US_1943 is a single-member force
The will of people of US 1943 is a strategic COG
candidate that cannot be eliminated because it
has all the necessary critical capabilities
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
US_1943 which is a single-member force
. . .
19
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate for
US 1943 which is a single-member force
. . .
What type of strategic COG candidate should I
consider for this single-member force?
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate with
respect to the people of US 1943
. . .
I consider a strategic COG candidate with respect
to the people of US 1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate with
respect to the government of US 1943
. . .
I consider a strategic COG candidate with respect
to the government of US 1943
I consider a strategic COG candidate with respect
to the armed forces of US 1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate with
respect to the armed forces of US 1943
. . .
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate
corresponding to the economy of US 1943
. . .
I consider a candidate corresponding to the
economy US 1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate with
respect to other sources of moral or physical
strength, power and resistance of US 1943
I consider a candidate corresponding to other
sources of moral or physical strength, power and
resistance of US 1943
. . .
20
President Roosevelt is a strategic COG candidate
with respect to the government_of_US_1943
Identify and test a strategic COG candidate with
respect to the government of US 1943
President Roosevelt is a strategic COG candidate
that can be eliminated because it does not have
all the necessary critical capabilities
Who or what is a main controlling element of the
government_of_US_1943?
President Roosevelt that has a critical role in
setting objectives and making decisions
President Roosevelt is a strategic COG candidate
with respect to the government_of_US_1943
Identify President Roosevelt as a strategic COG
candidate with respect to the government_of_US_194
3
President Roosevelt is a strategic COG candidate
that can be eliminated because it does not have
all the necessary critical capabilities
Test whether President Roosevelt is a viable
strategic COG candidate
21
President Roosevelt is a strategic COG candidate
that can be eliminated
Test whether President Roosevelt is a viable
strategic COG candidate
Does President Roosevelt have all the necessary
critical capabilities?
Which are the critical capabilities that
President Roosevelt should have to be a COG
candidate?
The necessary critical capabilities are be
protected, stay informed, communicate, be
influential, be a driving force, have support and
be irreplaceable
No.
Test whether President Roosevelt has the critical
capability to be protected
President Roosevelt has the critical capability
to be protected. President Roosevelt is protected
by US Service 1943 which has no significant
vulnerability
President Roosevelt has the critical capability
to stay informed. President Roosevelt receives
essential intelligence from intelligence agencies
which have no significant vulnerability
Test whether President Roosevelt has the critical
capability to stay informed
President Roosevelt has the critical capability
to communicate through executive orders, through
military orders, and through the Mass Media of US
1943. These communication means have no
significant vulnerabilities
Test whether President Roosevelt has the critical
capability to communicate
President Roosevelt has the critical capability
to be influential because he is the head of the
government of US 1943, the commander in chief of
the military of US 1943, and is a trusted leader
who can use the Mass Media of US 1943. These
influence means have no significant
vulnerabilities.
Test whether President Roosevelt has the critical
capability to be influential
President Roosevelt has the critical capability
to be a driving force. The main reason for
President Roosevelt to pursue the goal of
unconditional surrender of European Axis is
preventing separate peace by the members of the
Allied Forces. Also, the western democratic
values provides President Roosevelt with
determination to persevere in this goal. There is
no significant vulnerability in the reason and
determination.
Test whether President Roosevelt has the critical
capability to be a driving force
President Roosevelt has the critical capability
to have support because he is the head of a
democratic government with a history of good
decisions, a trusted commander in chief of the
military, and the people are willing to make
sacrifices for unconditional surrender of
European Axis. The means to secure continuous
support have no significant vulnerability.
Test whether President Roosevelt has the critical
capability to have support
President Roosevelt does not have the critical
capability to be irreplaceable. US 1943 would
maintain the goal of unconditional surrender of
European Axis irrespective of its leader because
the goal was established and the country was
committed to it. There is no significant
vulnerability resulted from the replacement of
President Roosevelt
Test whether President Roosevelt has the critical
capability to be irreplaceable
22
President Roosevelt has the critical capability
to be influential because he is the head of the
government of US 1943, the commander in chief of
the military of US 1943, and is a trusted leader
who can use the Mass Media of US 1943. These
influence means have no significant
vulnerabilities.
Test whether President Roosevelt has the critical
capability to be influential
Which are the critical requirements for President
Roosevelt to be influential?
Does President Roosevelt satisfy the critical
requirements to be influential?
President Roosevelt needs means to influence the
government, means to influence the military and
means to influence the people
Yes.
President Roosevelt can influence the government
of US 1943 because he is the head of the
government of US 1943. The influence means have
no significant vulnerability.
Test whether President Roosevelt has means to
influence the government
President Roosevelt can influence the military of
US 1943 because he is the commander in chief of
the military of US 1943. The influence means have
no significant vulnerability.
Test whether President Roosevelt has means to
influence the military
The influence of President Roosevelt over the
people of US 1943, as a trusted leader using the
Mass Media of US 1943, has no significant
vulnerability
Test whether President Roosevelt has means to
influence the people
23
President Roosevelt can influence the government
of US 1943 because he is the head of the
government of US 1943. The influence means have
no significant vulnerability.
Test whether President Roosevelt has means to
influence the government
What is a means for President Roosevelt to
influence the government of US 1943?
President Roosevelt is the head of the government
of US 1943
Test whether the influence of President Roosevelt
over the government of US 1943, as the head of
the government of US 1943, has any significant
vulnerability
The influence of President Roosevelt over the
government of US 1943, as the head of the
government of US 1943, has no significant
vulnerability
Does the influence of President Roosevelt over
the government of US 1943 have any significant
vulnerability?
No
24
The influence of President Roosevelt over the
military of US 1943, as the commander in chief of
the military of US 1943, has no significant
vulnerability
Test whether President Roosevelt has means to
influence the military
What is a means for President Roosevelt to
influence the military of US 1943?
President Roosevelt is the commander in chief of
the military of US 1943
Test whether the influence of President Roosevelt
over the military of US 1943, as the commander in
chief of the military of US 1943, has any
significant vulnerability
The influence of President Roosevelt over the
military of US 1943, as the commander in chief of
the military of US 1943, has no significant
vulnerability
Does the influence of President Roosevelt over
the military of US 1943 have any significant
vulnerability?
No
25
The influence of President Roosevelt over the
people of US 1943, as a trusted leader using the
Mass Media of US 1943, has no significant
vulnerability
Test whether President Roosevelt has means to
influence the people
What is a means for President Roosevelt to
influence the people of US 1943?
President Roosevelt is trusted by the people of
US 1943 and can use Mass Media of US 1943 to
influence them
The influence of President Roosevelt over the
people of US 1943, as a trusted leader using the
Mass Media of US 1943, has no significant
vulnerability
Test whether the influence of President Roosevelt
over the people of US 1943, as a trusted leader
using the Mass Media of US 1943, has any
significant vulnerability
Does the influence of President Roosevelt over
the people of US 1943 have any significant
vulnerability?
No
26
Overview
Modeling based on the task reduction paradigm
COG analysis through task reduction
Intelligence analysis through task reduction
COA critiquing through task reduction
Workaround planning through task reduction
Guidelines for the modeling process
27
Intelligence analysis through task reduction
Sample intelligence analysis tasks
Identification of the locations where it would be
possible to produce illegal drugs, given the
presence of plants, buildings, chemicals,
transportation equipment (such as trucks or
cars), and infrastructure (such as roads,
railroads, airstrips, small airports).
Detection of likely terrorist activity in a
country or location by taking into account the
political situation, the transportation network,
the buildings, chemicals, biological and/or
nuclear materials present, the telecommunications
present, the financial backing, the local
religion, the local standard of living, as well
as vehicles and weapons present or reported to be
on site.
28
Intelligence Analysis through hypothesis analysis
and evidence synthesis
S1
T1

S11
S1n
T1n
T11

S111
T111
S11m
T11m

• A complex intelligence analysis task is performed
  by
• successively reducing it to simpler tasks
• finding the solutions of the simplest tasks
• successively composing these solutions until the
  solution to the initial task is obtained.

29
Intelligence Analysis through hypothesis analysis
and evidence synthesis
Assess whether Location-A is a training base for
terrorist operations
Let us consider this intelligence analysis task
S1
T1
In order to perform this complex assessment task,
the analyst and the agent will ask themselves a
series of questions. The answer to each question
will lead to the reduction of the current
assessment task to simpler assessment tasks.

S11
S1n
T1n
T11

S111
T111
S11m
T11m

• A complex intelligence analysis task is performed
  by
• successively reducing it to simpler tasks
• finding the solutions of the simplest tasks
• successively composing these solutions until the
  solution to the initial task is obtained.

30
Intelligence Analysis through hypothesis analysis
and evidence synthesis
Assess whether Location-A is a training base for
terrorist operations
What type of factors should be considered to
assess the presence of a terrorist training base?
S1
T1

S11
S1n
T1n
T11

S111
T111
S11m
T11m

• A complex intelligence analysis task is performed
  by
• successively reducing it to simpler tasks
• finding the solutions of the simplest tasks
• successively composing these solutions until the
  solution to the initial task is obtained.

31
Intelligence Analysis through hypothesis analysis
and evidence synthesis
What type of factors should be considered to
assess the presence of a terrorist training base?
Political environment, physical structures, flow
of suspected terrorists, weapons and weapons
technology, other suspected bases in the region,
and terrorist sympathetic population
S1
T1

S11
S1n
T1n
T11

S111
T111
S11m
T11m

• A complex intelligence analysis task is performed
  by
• successively reducing it to simpler tasks
• finding the solutions of the simplest tasks
• successively composing these solutions until the
  solution to the initial task is obtained.

32
Intelligence Analysis through hypothesis analysis
and evidence synthesis
Political environment, physical structures, flow
of suspected terrorists, weapons and weapons
technology, other suspected bases in the region,
and terrorist sympathetic population
Assess whether there is a flow of suspected
terrorists in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are other suspected bases
for terrorist operations in the region of
Location-A
S1
T1
Assess whether the political environment would
support a training base for terrorist operations
at Location-A
Assess whether there is terrorist sympathetic
population in the region of Location-A

S11
S1n
T1n
T11
Assess whether the physical structures at
Location-A support the existence of a training
base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are weapons and weapons
technology at Location-A that suggest the
presence of a training base for terrorist
operations

S111
T111
S11m
T11m

• A complex intelligence analysis task is performed
  by
• successively reducing it to simpler tasks
• finding the solutions of the simplest tasks
• successively composing these solutions until the
  solution to the initial task is obtained.

33
Intelligence Analysis through hypothesis analysis
and evidence synthesis
Assess whether there is a flow of suspected
terrorists in the region of Location-A
Assess whether there are other suspected bases
for terrorist operations in the region of
Location-A
S1
T1
Assess whether the political environment would
support a training base for terrorist operations
at Location-A
Assess whether there is terrorist sympathetic
population in the region of Location-A

S11
S1n
T1n
T11
Assess whether the physical structures at
Location-A support the existence of a training
base for terrorist operations
Assess whether there are weapons and weapons
technology at Location-A that suggest the
presence of a training base for terrorist
operations

S111
T111
S11m
T11m

• A complex intelligence analysis task is performed
  by
• successively reducing it to simpler tasks
• finding the solutions of the simplest tasks
• successively composing these solutions until the
  solution to the initial task is obtained.

34
Intelligence Analysis through hypothesis analysis
and evidence synthesis
S1
T1

S11
S1n
T1n
T11

S111
T111
S11m
T11m

• A complex intelligence analysis task is performed
  by
• successively reducing it to simpler tasks
• finding the solutions of the simplest tasks
• successively composing these solutions until the
  solution to the initial task is obtained.

35
Intelligence Analysis through hypothesis analysis
and evidence synthesis
S1
T1

S11
S1n
T1n
T11

S111
T111
S11m
T11m

• A complex intelligence analysis task is performed
  by
• successively reducing it to simpler tasks
• finding the solutions of the simplest tasks
• successively composing these solutions until the
  solution to the initial task is obtained.

36
Intelligence Analysis through hypothesis analysis
and evidence synthesis
S1
T1

S11
S1n
T1n
T11

S111
T111
S11m
T11m

• A complex intelligence analysis task is performed
  by
• successively reducing it to simpler tasks
• finding the solutions of the simplest tasks
• successively composing these solutions until the
  solution to the initial task is obtained.

37
Intelligence Analysis through hypothesis analysis
and evidence synthesis
S1
T1

S11
S1n
T1n
T11

S111
T111
S11m
T11m

• A complex intelligence analysis task is performed
  by
• successively reducing it to simpler tasks
• finding the solutions of the simplest tasks
• successively composing these solutions until the
  solution to the initial task is obtained.

38
Intelligence Analysis through hypothesis analysis
and evidence synthesis
S1
T1

S11
S1n
T1n
T11

S111
T111
S11m
T11m

• A complex intelligence analysis task is performed
  by
• successively reducing it to simpler tasks
• finding the solutions of the simplest tasks
• successively composing these solutions until the
  solution to the initial task is obtained.

39
Intelligence Analysis through hypothesis analysis
and evidence synthesis
S1
T1

S11
S1n
T1n
T11

S111
T111
S11m
T11m

• A complex intelligence analysis task is performed
  by
• successively reducing it to simpler tasks
• finding the solutions of the simplest tasks
• successively composing these solutions until the
  solution to the initial task is obtained.

40
Intelligence Analysis through hypothesis analysis
and evidence synthesis
S1
T1

S11
S1n
T1n
T11

S111
T111
S11m
T11m

• A complex intelligence analysis task is performed
  by
• successively reducing it to simpler tasks
• finding the solutions of the simplest tasks
• successively composing these solutions until the
  solution to the initial task is obtained.

41
Intelligence Analysis through hypothesis analysis
and evidence synthesis
S1
T1

S11
S1n
T1n
T11

S111
T111
S11m
T11m

• A complex intelligence analysis task is performed
  by
• successively reducing it to simpler tasks
• finding the solutions of the simplest tasks
• successively composing these solutions until the
  solution to the initial task is obtained.

42
Intelligence Analysis through hypothesis analysis
and evidence synthesis
Assess whether there is terrorist sympathetic
population in the region of Location-A
Assess whether the political environment would
support a training base for terrorist operations
at Location-A
43
Overview
Modeling based on the task reduction paradigm
COG analysis through task reduction
Intelligence analysis through task reduction
COA critiquing through task reduction
Workaround planning through task reduction
Guidelines for the modeling process
44
Critiquing as an expertise task
Critiquing means expressing judgments about
something according to certain standards.
Example Identifying the strengths and
weaknesses of a military course of action with
respect to the principles of war and the tenets
of army operations. For instance, assess a
particular course of action with respect to the
Principle of Surprise.
45
Course of Action critiquing
Challenge problem in the DARPAs High Performance
Knowledge Bases Program, 1997-1999.
Identifies strengths and weaknesses in a military
course of action based on the principles of war
and tenets of army operations. Supports ground
combat planning by the commander and staff -
identifies key combat tasks assigned to units -
analyzes ability of units to accomplish their
tasks - evaluates contributions of these tasks
to the accomplishment of the mission.
46
The Course of Action critiquing agent
Source Challenge problem for the DARPAs High
Performance Knowledge Base (HPKB) program
(FY97-99).
Background A military course of action (COA) is
a preliminary outline of a plan for how a
military unit might attempt to accomplish a
mission. After receiving orders to plan for a
mission, a commander and staff analyze the
mission, conceive and evaluate potential COAs,
select a COA, and prepare a detailed plans to
accomplish the mission based on the selected COA.
The general practice is for the staff to generate
several COAs for a mission, and then to make a
comparison of those COAs based on many factors
including the situation, the commanders
guidance, the principles of war, and the tenets
of army operations. The commander makes the final
decision on which COA will be used to generate
his or her plan based on the recommendations of
the staff and his or her own experience with the
same factors considered by the staff.
Agent task Identify strengths and weaknesses in
a COA, based on the principles of war and the
tenets of army operations.
47
COA411 the sketch
Graphical depiction of a preliminary plan. It
includes enough of the high level structure and
maneuver aspects of the plan to show how the
actions of each unit fit together to accomplish
the overall purpose.
48
COA411 the statement
Explains what the units will do to accomplish the
assigned mission.
49
COA411 the statement (cont.)
50
COA critiquing task
Answer each of the following questions
51
Modeling the critiquing process overview
To assess a course of action with respect to a
specific principle or tenet one needs a certain
amount of information about that course of
action, information related to that principle or
tenet. This information is obtained by asking a
series of questions. The answer to each
question allows one to reduce the current
assessment task to a more specific and simpler
one. This process continues until one has
enough information to recognize a weakness or a
strength.

T1
S1
Q1

A1n
A11
S1n
S11
T1n
T11a
Q11a

A11am

A11a1
S11am
S11a1
Each leaf is a solution (a weakness or a
strength). The solution corresponding to an
intermediate node is the union of the solutions
of its immediate children.
52
The Principle of Surprise (from FM100-5)
Strike the enemy at a time or place or in a
manner for which he is unprepared. Surprise can
decisively shift the balance of combat power. By
seeking surprise, forces can achieve success well
out of proportion to the effort expended. Rapid
advances in surveillance technology and mass
communication make it increasingly difficult to
mask or cloak large-scale marshaling or movement
of personnel and equipment. The enemy need not be
taken completely by surprise but only become
aware too late to react effectively. Factors
contributing to surprise include speed, effective
intelligence, deception, application of
unexpected combat power, operations security
(OPSEC), and variations in tactics and methods of
operation. Surprise can be in tempo, size of
force, direction or location of main effort, and
timing. Deception can aid the probability of
achieving surprise.
53
Sample critique generated by the COA agent
To what extent does this course of
action conform to the Principle of Surprise?
"There is a strength with respect to surprise in
COA411 because the enemy is unlikely to be
prepared for the heavy concentration of combat
power applied by BLUE-TASK-FORCE1 as MAIN-EFFORT1
in action PENETRATE1. In this action,
MAIN-EFFORT1 is applying a force ratio of 10.6
which is more than double the recommended force
ratio 3.0. Applying this much combat power for
this action is likely to surprise the enemy and
is indicative of the proper application of the
principle of surprise."

Reference FM 100-5 pg 2-5, KF 118.1, KF 118.2,
KF 118.3 - Surprise is achieved by
striking/engaging the enemy in a time, place or
manner for which he is unprepared. The enemy can
be surprised by the tempo of the operation, the
size of the force, the direction or location of
the main effort, and timing. Factors contributing
to surprise include speed, effective
intelligence, deception, application of
unexpected combat power, operations security, and
variations in tactics and methods of operation.
54
coa411-surprise
Assess COA411 with respect to the Principle of
Surprise
Does COA411 assign appropriate surprise,
deception, or counter-reconnaissance actions?
I consider the presence of surprise factors
I consider enemy reconnaissance
Assess surprise in COA411 with respect to the
presence of surprise factors
Assess surprise in COA411 with respect to
countering enemy reconnaissance
Continues on next slide
I consider the application of surprising levels
of combat power
I consider the presence of deception actions
Assess surprise in COA411 with respect to the
presence of deception actions
Assess surprise in COA411 with respect to the
application of surprising levels of combat power
55
coa411-surprise
Continues from previous slide
Assess surprise in COA411 with respect to
countering enemy reconnaissance
Is an enemy reconnaissance unit present?
Yes, RED-CSOP1 which is performing the
reconnaissance action SCREEN1
No, ...
Assess surprise in COA411 where the enemy unit
RED-CSOP1 performs the reconnaissance action
SCREEN1
Continues on next slide
56
coa411-surprise
Continues from previous slide
Assess surprise in COA411 where the enemy unit
RED-CSOP1 performs the reconnaissance action
SCREEN1
Is the enemy reconnaissance unit destroyed?
No, ...
Yes, RED-CSOP1 is destroyed by DESTROY1

ASSESSMENT There is a strength with respect to
surprise in COA411 because it contains aggressive
security/counter-reconnaissance plans, destroying
enemy intelligence collection units and
activities. Intelligence collection by RED-CSOP1
through SCREEN1 will be disrupted by its
destruction by DESTROY1. This and similar actions
prevent the enemy for ascertaining the nature and
intent of friendly operations, thereby increasing
the likelihood that the enemy will be surprised.
This is a strength of high importance.
REFERENCE FM 100-5 pg 2-5, KF 118.1, KF 118.2,
KF 118.3 - Surprise is achieved by
striking/engaging the enemy in a time, place or
manner for which he is unprepared. The enemy can
be surprised by the tempo of the operation, the
size of the force, the direction or location of
the main effort, and timing. Factors contributing
to surprise include speed, effective
intelligence, deception, application of
unexpected combat power, operations security, and
variations in tactics and methods of operation.
57
Modeling based on COA421
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coa421-surprise
Assess COA421 with respect to the Principle of
Surprise
Does COA421 assign appropriate surprise,
deception, or counter-reconnaissance actions?
I consider enemy reconnaissance
Assess surprise in COA421 with respect to
countering enemy reconnaissance
Is an enemy reconnaissance unit present?
Yes, RED-CSOP1 which is performing the
reconnaissance action SCREEN1
Assess surprise in COA421 where the enemy unit
RED-CSOP1 performs the reconnaissance action
SCREEN1
Is the enemy reconnaissance unit destroyed?
No, RED-CSOP1 is not destroyed
ASSESSMENT There is a weakness with respect to
surprise in COA421 because the intelligence
collection by RED-CSOP1 through SCREEN1 will not
be disrupted. Therefore the enemy may ascertain
the nature and intent of friendly operations,
thereby decreasing the likelihood that the enemy
will be surprised. This is a weakness of high
importance. REFERENCE FM 100-5 pg 2-5, KF
118.1, KF 118.2, KF 118.3 - Surprise is achieved
by striking/engaging the enemy in a time, place
or manner for which he is unprepared. The enemy
can be surprised by the tempo of the operation,
the size of the force, the direction or location
of the main effort, and timing. Factors
contributing to surprise include speed, effective
intelligence, deception, application of
unexpected combat power, operations security, and
variations in tactics and methods of operation.
60
The Principle of Mass (from FM100-5)
Mass the effects of overwhelming combat power at
the decisive place and time. Synchronizing all
the elements of combat power where they will have
decisive effect on an enemy force in a short
period of time is to achieve mass. To mass is to
hit the enemy with a closed fist, not poke at him
with fingers of an open hand. Mass must also be
sustained so the effects have staying power.
Thus, mass seeks to smash the enemy, not sting
him. This results from the proper combination of
combat power with the proper application of other
principles of war. Massing effects, rather than
concentrating forces, can enable numerically
inferior forces to achieve decisive results,
while limiting exposure to enemy fire.
61
Sample critiques generated by the COA agent
To what extent does this course of
action conform to the Principle of Mass?
There is a major strength in COA411 with respect
to mass because BLUE-TASK-FORCE1 is the
MAIN-EFFORT1 and it acts on the decisive point of
the COA (RED-MECH-COMPANY4) with a force ratio of
10.6, which exceeds a recommended force ratio of
3.0. Additionally, the main effort is assisted
by supporting action SUPPRESS-MILITARY-TASK1
which also acts on the decisive point. This is
good evidence of the allocation of significantly
more than minimum combat power required at the
decisive point and is indicative of the proper
application of the principle of mass.
There is a strength in COA411 with respect to
mass because BLUE-MECH-COMPANY8 is a
COMPANY-UNIT-DESIGNATION level maneuver unit
assigned to be the reserve. This is considered a
strong reserve for a BRIGADE-UNIT-DESIGNATION
level COA and would be available to continue the
operation or exploit success.
There is a strength in COA411 with respect to
mass because BLUE-TASK-FORCE1 is the main effort
of the COA and it has been allocated 33 of
available combat power but this is considered
just a medium level weighting of the main effort.

Reference FM 100-5 pg 2-4, KF 113.1, KF 113.2,
KF 113.3, KF 113.4, KF 113.5 - To mass is to
synchronize the effects of all elements of combat
power at the proper point and time to achieve
decisive results. Observance of the Principle of
Mass may be evidenced by allocation to the main
effort of significantly greater combat power than
the minimum required throughout its mission,
accounting for expected losses. Mass is evidenced
by the allocation of significantly more than
minimum combat power required at the decisive
point.
62
coa411-mass
I need to
Assess COA411 with respect to the Principle of
Mass
Does COA411 identify a decisive point?
Yes, it identifies the decisive point
RED-MECH-COMPANY4.
Therefore I need to
Assess mass for COA411 with RED-MECH-COMPANY4 as
the decisive point
Does the main effort act on RED-MECH-COMPANY4
with an adequate force ratio?
Yes, it acts with a force ratio of 10.6
Therefore I need to
Assess mass for COA411 when the main effort acts
on RED-MECH-COMPANY4 with the adequate force
ratio of 10.6.
Does the main effort get help acting on
RED-MECH-COMPANY4?
Yes, it gets help from the supporting action
SUPPRESS1, which also acts on RED-MECH-COMPANY4.
Therefore I conclude that
There is a major strength in COA411 with respect
to mass because BLUE-TASK-FORCE1 is the
MAIN-EFFORT1 and it acts on the decisive point of
the COA (RED-MECH-COMPANY4) with a force ratio of
10.6, which exceeds a recommended force ratio of
3.0. Additionally, the main effort is assisted by
the supporting action SUPPRESS1 which also acts
on the decisive point. This is good evidence of
the allocation of significantly more than minimum
combat power required at the decisive point and
is indicative of the proper application of the
principle of mass.
63
The Disciple-COA agent
DiscipleCOA
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68
Overview
Modeling based on the task reduction paradigm
COG analysis through task reduction
Intelligence analysis through task reduction
COA critiquing through task reduction
Workaround planning through task reduction
Guidelines for the modeling process
69
Planning as an expertise task
Planning means developing a sequence of
actions that achieve a desired goal.
Examples Develop a plan for a military unit to
reconstitute or bypass damage to an
infrastructure, such as a damaged bridge, tunnel
or road. Develop a plan of how to manufacture a
loudspeaker. Develop a plan of how to travel from
one location to another.
70
Workaround planning through task reduction
Estimate enemys best way of working around
damage to a transportation infrastructure, such
as a damaged bridge or a cratered road.
Input problem

• description of a military unit that needs to
  work around some damage
• description of the damage and of the terrain
• description of the resources in the area that
  could be used to repair the damage

Solution

• detailed plan of actions
• minimum duration
• expected duration
• resources
• link capacity

71
Modeling fragment
Workaround obstacle by unit10
What is the type of obstacle?
Bridge at site100.
Tunnel
Crater
Workaround bridge obstacle at site100 by
unit10
What is the type of damage to the bridge?
Damaged bridge but no mines.
Mined and damaged bridge.
Only mines
Workaround unmined damaged bridge at
site100 by unit10
What type of workaround strategy to adopt?
Ford the river.
Repair the bridge.
Ford damaged bridge at site100 by unit10
72
Modeling fragment (cont.)

Prepare river banks at site103 using
bulldozer-unit201 to allow fording by unit10
What bank needs to be prepared?
Both site107 and site105 need to be reduced
because their slopes are too steep for unit10.
Reduce the slope of site107 by direct
cut using bulldozer-unit201 to allow the
fording by unit10
Reduce the slope of site105 by direct
cut using bulldozer-unit201 to allow the
fording by unit10
Ford bulldozer-unit201 at site103



73
Overview
Modeling based on the task reduction paradigm
COG analysis through task reduction
Intelligence analysis through task reduction
COA critiquing through task reduction
Workaround planning through task reduction
Guidelines for the modeling process
74
General guidelines

• Partition the domain into classes of problems.
• Select representative problems for each class.
• Model one class at a time.
• Model one example solution at a time.
• Organize the top level part of the problem
  solving tree to identify the class of the problem.

75
Partition the domain into classes of problems
Center of gravity analysis
Multimember nature of force
Opposing force1
Government
Single state
People
War scenario
Military
Type of scenario
Opposing force2
Economy
Operations other than war
76
Partition the domain into classes of problems
Critical vulnerabilities
Critical capabilities
Critical requirements
Center of gravity analysis
be protected
stay informed
communicate
leader
be influential
Government
be a driving force
organization
have support
be irreplaceable
77
Partition the domain into classes of problems
Course of action critiquing
Each principle and tenet leads to a different
class of critiquing task.
78
Partition the domain into classes of problems
Workaround reasoning
Workaround damaged tunnels
Workaround damaged bridges with fording
Workaround damaged bridges with fixed bridges
Workaround damage
Workaround damaged bridges
Workaround damaged bridges with floating bridges
Workaround damaged bridges with rafts
Workaround damaged roads
79
Specific guidelines for the modeling process
1. Identify the problem to be solved, then form
a task name by writing a clear, thorough, natural
language sentence describing that
problem. 2. Follow each task or sub-task with a
single, concise, question relevant to solving the
named task. - Ask small, incremental questions
that are likely to have a single category of
answer (but not necessarily a single answer).
This usually means ask who, or what, or
where, or what kind of, or is this or that
etc., not complex questions such as who and
what, or what and where, 3. Follow each
question with one or more answers to that
question. - Express answers as complete
sentences, restating key elements of the question
in the answer. - Even well formed, simple
questions are likely to generate multiple
answers. Select the answer that corresponds to
the example solution being modeled and continue
down that branch. Go back and explore possible
branches in a solution tree when you are ready to
model a new example solution.
80
Specific guidelines for the modeling process
(cont.)
4. Evaluate the complexity of each question and
its answers. When a question leads to apparently
overly complex answers, especially answers that
contain an and condition, rephrase the question
in a simpler, more incremental manner leading to
simpler answers. 5. For each answer, form a new
sub-task, or several sub-tasks, or a solution
corresponding to that answer, by writing a clear,
thorough, natural language sentence describing
the new sub-tasks or solution. - To the extent
that it is practical, incorporate key relevant
phrases and elements of preceding task names in
sub-task names to portray the experts chain of
problem solving thought and the accumulation of
relevant knowledge. - If the answer has led to
several sub-tasks, then model their solutions in
a depth-first order.
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Specific guidelines for the modeling process
(cont.)

• 6. After completing a solution tree for an
  example solution, revisit the potential branches
  of that tree to model additional example
  solutions within that category of solutions,
  reusing existing model components to the greatest
  extent possible.
• Utilize the tools and learning ability of
  Disciple to the greatest extent possible to
  minimize the amount of modeling required.
• Only completely model solutions that are unique
  in their entirety. Entirely unique solutions
  will be rare.