Climate Change

1
Climate Change

• What you dont know Can
• Hurt You

2
A Climate Change Reality Check

• One Persons Review of the State of Climatic
  Science, Specifically Anthropogenic (Human
  Produced) Greenhouse Gases versus Natural
  Climatic Variations

3
I. Introduction

• The basis of this review is to ascertain if the
  evidence for anthropogenic climatic warming
  withstands scrutiny using the principles of the
  Scientific Method.

4
A Quick Review of The Scientific Method

• The scientific method is the process by which
  scientists, collectively and over time, endeavor
  to construct an accurate (that is, reliable,
  consistent and non-arbitrary) representation of
  the world.
• Recognizing that personal and cultural beliefs
  influence both our perceptions and our
  interpretations of natural phenomena, we aim
  through the use of standard procedures and
  criteria to minimize those influences when
  developing a theory.
• As a famous scientist once said, "Smart people
  (like smart lawyers) can come up with very good
  explanations for mistaken points of view." In
  summary, the scientific method attempts to
  minimize the influence of bias or prejudice in
  the experimenter when testing a hypothesis or a
  theory.

5
The Scientific Method has four steps

• 1. OBSERVATION and DESCRIPTION of a phenomenon or
  group of phenomena.
• 2. FORMULATION of a HYPOTHESIS to explain the
  phenomena. In physics and in climatic science,
  the hypothesis often takes the form of a causal
  mechanism or a mathematical relation.
• 3. USE of the HYPOTHESIS to PREDICT the existence
  of other phenomena, or to predict quantitatively
  the results of new observations.
• 4. Performance of experimental TESTS of the
  PREDICTIONS by several independent experimenters
  and properly performed experiments.
• If the experiments bear out the hypothesis it may
  come to be regarded as a theory or law of nature.
  If the experiments do not bear out the
  hypothesis, it must be rejected or modified. What
  is key in the description of the scientific
  method just given is the predictive power (the
  ability to get more out of the theory than you
  put in) of the hypothesis or theory, as tested by
  experiment. It is often said in science that
  theories can never be proved, only disproved.
  There is always the possibility that a new
  observation or a new experiment will conflict
  with a long-standing theory. (Wilson, E. Bright.
  An Introduction to Scientific Research,
  McGraw-Hill, 1952).

6
Example of The Scientific Method

• Einsteins General Theory of Relativity
• In 1905, while working at a Swiss Patent office
  Albert Einstein published four papers which would
  comprise the basis of the General Theory of
  Relativity, which he published in 1916. At first
  his papers were either ignored or heavily
  criticized as the established world of physicists
  were very skeptical of his theories. But his
  theories were tested, and proved to be correct.
• The first major test was in 1919. His theory
  predicted that large gravitation bodies can
  deflect light. Astronomers made observations and
  found that sure enough during the 1919 solar
  eclipse, they could accurately measure the
  deflection of star light by the sun.
• Einsteins theories are still being tested to
  this day, NASA currently has several satellites
  (GRACE, LAGEOS, and in the future LISA) in orbit
  testing gravitation effects as predicted by
  Einstein to a much finer degree than has
  previously been possible.
• Proper testing of the hypothesis of anthropogenic
  climatic warming must be done in a similar
  fashion, and examine its predictions against
  actual data.

7
II. Radiative Balance of the Planet

• The earth is warmed by infrared radiation that is
  absorbed from the sun (about 235 w/m2).
• The infrared radiation is transmitted through the
  atmosphere and absorbed by the earths surface by
  varying amounts, due the varied nature of the
  surface (ocean, snow pack, ice, soil, rocks,
  varied vegetation, human structures, etc.).
• Some of the infrared radiation that is not
  absorbed is reflected back into the atmosphere
  which eventually transmits it back into space.
• The balance of infrared radiation absorbed and
  infrared radiation reflected and transmitted into
  space allows the earths surface to stay at the
  relatively narrow range of temperatures.
• This balance is controlled by the earths
  atmosphere, through its circulation systems and
  precipitation systems.

8
Radiative Balance (Spencer, Roy F. web site)
9
Weather and Precipitation Systems

• The earths atmosphere is a complex circulation
  system,controlled by the 2nd Law of
  Thermodynamics which states that any system will
  try to come to an equilibrium.
• In the case of the atmosphere that means that
  because of the vastly different temperatures and
  pressures of the atmosphere from surface
  (troposphere) to outer edges of the atmosphere
  (ionosphere) the atmosphere is constantly trying
  to balance the heating and cooling extremes that
  the addition of solar radiation on the atmosphere
  creates.
• Thus weather systems constantly move warm and
  cold air around in the atmosphere, with the
  associated precipitation and condensation of
  water vapor. The result is cold and warm weather
  fronts, low and high pressure systems, and rain,
  snow, wind and all the types of weather systems.
• The most important of these is the effect of
  precipitation systems. The process of
  evaporating water and then condensing and
  precipitating water moves heat up and down in the
  atmosphere.

10
How Precipitation Systems Move Heat - Part I

• The difference in temperature from one region to
  the next causes air currents (wind) to blow
  across the surface of the earth, picking up heat
  from the surface and moving it to somewhere else.
• The heat transferred to the surface from the
  overlying air is either sensible (an increase in
  air temperature), or latent (water evaporated
  from the surface, adding water vapor to the air
  which contains the latent heat of vaporization).
• Latent heat loss by the Earths surface through
  evaporation is the dominant method of cooling it.
  You feel this effect when a breeze blows over
  your skin. The breeze is taking heat from your
  body as the water on its surface evaporates into
  water vapor and is removed from your body.
• At least 90 percent of the heat lost by water
  bodies (streams, lakes, oceans) is through energy
  required to evaporate water from surface. For
  land surface plants evaporate water through
  evapotranspiration. That is why forests feel
  cooler the heat of vaporization is being
  removed from them.

11
How Precipitation Systems Move Heat - Part II

• As air accumulates water vapor and latent heat it
  tends to rise. As the warm air rises it reaches
  levels of the atmosphere that are too cool to
  keep all the water vapor in vapor form. Now at
  100 percent humidity some water vapor condenses
  releasing the latent heat and warming the upper
  parts of the atmosphere. This warming from
  condensational heating then causes the cloudy air
  parcels to continue to rise and condense more
  water vapor. This is how clouds and ultimately
  thunderstorms are formed.
• If precipitation reaches the surface it
  represents solar energy that has been transferred
  from the surface to the upper atmosphere.
• These columns of warm air force the dryer air
  around them to sink to fill the gaps left by the
  rising warmer air. This air as it is being
  forced downward warms the upper troposphere by
  emitting infrared radiation some of which is
  transmitted to outer space.

12
The Effect of Weather on Radiative Balance

• If there were no precipitation and circulation
  systems and the transmitting effect of weather on
  heat and cold in the atmosphere the temperature
  on the surface of the earth would be about 140 F
  (based on a radiative heat model - Spencer, Roy
  F., 2008). The temperature would rapidly
  decrease with altitude and as low as 30,000 feet
  the temperature would be so cold that jet fuel
  would freeze or turn into a gel and make jet
  aviation impossible without more insulation and
  heating in fuel tanks.
• Therefore precipitation systems on earth have the
  effect of being the earths air conditioning
  system, cooling the surface and transmitting the
  heat up and throughout the atmosphere. (Spencer,
  Roy F., 2008)

13
Present Day Composition of the Atmosphere

• The atmosphere is made of a number of gases
  primarily nitrogen (76.55), oxygen (20.54),
  water vapor (1.96), and argon (0.91). Other
  gases include carbon dioxide (0.03) and the rest
  of the atmosphere (0.1) is composed of methane,
  nitrous oxide, sulfur dioxide, helium, and other
  noble gases and trace gases. This is the current
  percentage of gases in the atmosphere.

14
Past Composition of the Atmosphere

• However current gas percentages have in no way
  been constant over geologic time, and have varied
  considerably. For instance geologic studies have
  indicated oxygen may have been as low as 15
  percent and as high as 30 percent of the
  atmosphere in the last 550 million years

15
Greenhouse Gases

• The gases that primarily control the balance of
  infrared radiation absorbed and reflected are the
  greenhouse gases.
• A greenhouse gas is defined as a gas that
  strongly absorbs and emits infrared radiation.
  The dominant greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
  are water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane.
• These and some of the minor other gases act as
  radiative blanket, causing the lower atmosphere
  to be warmer, and the upper atmosphere cooler.
  They do this by trapping more of the infrared
  energy that would be dissipated into outer space.
  Of these three, water vapor is by far the most
  important, causing over 95 percent of radiative
  absorbing or transmitting.

16
Carbon Dioxide Stability

• From studies of the geologic record and
  associated indications of the composition of
  ancient atmospheres (in many cases by isotope
  studies and proxy measurements) , it has been
  determined the concentration of carbon dioxide
  has not been stable, but has also varied over
  geologic time.

17
CO2 in Geologic Time Howard, J.F. TPG 6/08
18
Additional CO2 Studies
19
The hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming is
based on the following concepts

• Human activities have added carbon dioxide in the
  atmosphere by the use of carbon based fuels (oil,
  gas, wood, etc.).
• The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is
  steadily increasing due to human use of carbon
  fuels.
• The increase of carbon dioxide has caused a shift
  in the radiative balance of the earths
  atmosphere, resulting in an increase in the
  infrared energy retained by the atmosphere.
• This retention of infrared radiation will be
  expressed by an increase in temperature in the
  lower and upper troposphere of the atmosphere, a
  general increase in atmospheric global
  temperatures, and by an associated increase in
  ocean temperatures globally due to natural
  circulation and equilibrium between the
  atmosphere and the ocean.
• The described increases in global temperatures,
  lower and upper troposphere temperatures, and
  ocean temperature will be expressed by changing
  conditions on the surface of the planet such as
  warmer average temperatures per latitude,
  shrinking ice packs such as continental and
  alpine glaciers, and resulting rises in sea
  level. (Spencer, Roy F., 2008)

20
Computer Models of Earths Climate

• Computer simulations of climate using
  mathematical representation of different aspects
  or parameters of the atmosphere are used to
  attempt to forecast long-term trends of the
  worlds climatic system. These models are very
  speculative in that the complexitiy of climatic
  systems do not allow accurate representation of
  most parameters. In most models several
  parameters, often cloud cover or solar radiation
  have to be given a constant value because of time
  and limitations of the computing power of the
  multiple processors used by the modelers. Each
  climate model can thus be very different as the
  modeler chooses which parameters to vary and the
  limits of the variation.

21
Climate Models Complexity
22
Key Assumptions for most Climate Models

• Solar irradiance on the earth remains within a
  narrow range and can be considered a constant
  over time.
• The historical record of concentrations of carbon
  dioxide in the atmosphere is best found in ice
  core data.
• The primary greenhouse gases are water vapor,
  carbon dioxide, and methane. The global
  temperatures will reflect increases of carbon
  dioxide and methane.
• Although water vapor is the primary greenhouse
  gas (95 percent of the greenhouse effect is by
  water vapor), its effects can be considered
  relatively constant except in its relationship to
  carbon dioxide and methane.
• The effect of carbon dioxide alone on atmospheric
  warming is limited in that its ability to trap
  infrared radiation significantly decreases with
  concentration. Due to this property the doubling
  of carbon dioxide concentration alone will result
  in an increase of 1 degree Celcius in global
  temperature at most, assuming a completely static
  atmospheric model.
• The effect of carbon dioxide is amplified by
  feedback mechanisms which cause other gases
  (particularly water vapor) to increase and thus
  increase the warming effect.
• Ocean temperatures will change over time as the
  increase in heat in the atmosphere will be
  transmitted to the ocean.

23
Key Suppositions from most Climate Models

1. With increase in carbon dioxide, the temperature
   in the atmosphere will increase with altitude
   from the surface in the troposphere to an
   altitude of about 9 to 12 kilometers, and then
   decrease with the thinning of the atmosphere.
   This is the key mechanism of the hypothesis of
   anthropogenic global warming that causes the
   enhanced warming of the atmosphere. Increase in
   carbon dioxide causes the mid and upper level of
   the troposphere to heat up, transferring heat to
   the surface instead of being radiated out into
   space.
2. With increase in carbon dioxide the temperature
   of the oceans should also increase. This
   temperature increase is significant because the
   oceans hold much more mass then the atmosphere
   and thus can hold much more energy for feedback
   mechanisms (resulting in higher sea levels and
   more storms hurricanes it is speculated).
3. With increase in carbon dioxide a positive
   feedback is predicted to occur with water vapor
   resulting in the increase of water vapor in the
   atmosphere and corresponding increase in
   temperature. Some modelers have stated that as
   the climate temperature increases the amount of
   this feedback could result in approaching a
   tipping point leading to catastrophic increase in
   atmospheric temperature.

24
Climate Model Parameters

• These assumptions and suppositions are key in the
  modelers climatic predictions that anthropogenic
  increases in carbon dioxide will result in human
  induced climate change (global warming) leading
  to increases in global increases in temperature
  with resultant glacial and ice cap melting,
  increased and severity of atmospheric
  disturbances (storms), sea level increases, fauna
  and flora stress and even possibly catastrophic
  effects on the climatic system.
• Each one of these assumptions and suppositions
  must withstand scientific method scrutiny in
  order for the hypothesis of anthropogenic warming
  to be considered valid, as with any hypothesis.

25
Assumptions The Role of Solar Radiation

• Assumption Solar Radiation varies over a narrow
  range and can be considered a constant over time.
• Astrophysicists tell us that sun irradiance
  varies according to distinctive cycles which are
  only poorly understood. The most frequent cycle
  is the 11-year sun spot cycle. This cycle has
  been tracked since the 1700s and is now between
  cycle Number 23 and Number 24. The chart on the
  next slide depicts this periodicity.

26
Solar Sunspot Cycle
27
Assumptions The Role of Solar Radiation

• As can be seen from the previous chart solar
  radiation on the earth has been on upward trend
  the last two centuries. According to the
  Max-Planck Institute for Solar Studies the level
  of solar activity during the past 70 years is
  exceptional, and the previous period of equally
  high activity occurred more than 8,000 years
  agoduring the past 11,400 year Sun spent only of
  the order of 10 of the time at a similarly high
  level of magnetic activity and almost all were
  shorter than the present episode. Solanki, S.K.
  et.al. , Nature 10/28/04.
• The next three charts show additional
  periodicities with sunspot and solar activity.
  Note the presence of the Maunder minimum between
  1600 and 1700 and its relation with global
  temperatures and finally a summary of the past
  3,000 years in global temperatures.

28
Additional Solar Cycles
29
Cyclical warm periods that match solar activity
(Stephen Wilde, 2008).
30
Summation of Global Temperature last 3,000 years
From Robinson, A.B., et.al., Jrnl of American Phy
Surgeons, 2007.
31
Assumptions The Role of Solar Radiation

• The next slide shows how temperature has varied
  over the last 100 years as compared to the
  changing length of the sun spot cycle.
• The following two slides then overlay other
  regions temperatures and corresponding and solar
  radiation.

32
Comparison of Solar Activity and Global
Temperature
Close correlation between surface land air
temperature in the Northern Hemisphere (thick
curve) and the changing length of the 11-year
sunspot cycle (thin curve), indicating the
varying intensity of the sun's eruptional
activity (From Friis-Christensen and Lassen,
1991). Data taken from Landscheidt, Theodore,
2002, Figure 4.
33
Comparison of Solar Activity and Global Temp in
Arctic
From Robinson, A.B., et.al., Jrnl of American Phy
Surgeons, 2007.
34
Solar vs Temp Other Regions (from Soon, 2009)
35
Summation Solar Activity

• Sun spot activity and thus solar activity has
  been historically recorded by observation for
  1400 years. These observations have been
  confirmed by isotope studies.
• The historical tracking of sun spots and global
  temperature have determined there is a strong
  correlation between them, although the mechanism
  is not entirely clear because the change in solar
  radiation is not sufficient to cause the degree
  in temperature change directly (using the
  radiative model method).
• One current theory is that with decreased solar
  activity, the decrease in solar wind allows more
  cosmic rays from outside the solar system to
  penetrate the atmosphere, ionize nitrogen
  oxygen atoms and provide more nucleating site for
  cloud droplets, increasing cloud cover and
  reducing global temperatures. Thus an indirect
  feedback mechanism.
• Recent measurements have determined the last
  three decades of sun activity has been
  exceptional, with the most sun spot and thus
  solar activity in the past 8,000 to 11,400 years
  (Solanski, S.K., et.al, Nature, 2004).
• The increase and decrease in global temperature
  this past century correlates strongly with this
  change in solar activity.
• The recent drop in global temperature also
  corresponds to the current quiescent state of the
  sun, as it switches over from sun spot cycle 23
  to 24.
• Because of these facts, Climate models that
  assume the solar irradiance is a constant are
  seriously flawed and probably invalid.

36
Examination of Assumptions

• Assumption Ice core data is the best
  measurement of carbon dioxide concentrations in
  the atmosphere.
• The IPCC and global climate modelers use ice core
  data and the amount of carbon dioxide trapped in
  gas bubbles in the ice core to measure the
  concentrations of carbon dioxide in the
  atmosphere. This has been the standard practice
  of climatologists for the past several decades.
  From ice core data it is assumed the pre
  industrial Holocene era (8,000 to 10,000 years
  ago) show a carbon dioxide level of about 240
  ppmv (ppm by volume).
• Modern carbon dioxide measurements are compared
  to the Mauna Loa observatory, which has been
  measuring carbon dioxide meticulously since 1958.
  The steady increase of carbon dioxide is assumed
  to be due to the use of carbon based fuel.

37
Mauna Loa Observatory Data
38
Evaluation of Carbon Dioxide Ice Core Data

• Reliance on ice core data ignores 90,000 accurate
  chemical analysis of carbon dioxide in air made
  since 1812 using reliable chemical methods that
  usually achieved accuracy better than 3 percent.
  This data, when compiled, indicates carbon
  dioxide has had three maxima in the last 200
  years around 1825, 1857, and 1942 with the later
  over 400 ppm (Beck, 2007). This data was not
  taken from specific station points for the
  purpose of examining carbon dioxide levels over
  extended periods, but collected as part
  scientific studies or measurements for other
  purposes. But, when carefully evaluated, there
  is no reason to assume this data is not useful as
  a historical carbon dioxide record.
• Evaluation of gases in ice core data indicate
  they are not a reliable record of carbon dioxide
  as the carbon dioxide tends to differentiate and
  diffuse in cold liquid water and diffuses by the
  Knudsen diffusion effect at drastic pressure
  changes such as experienced by deep ice cores
  which minimizes variations and reduces maximums
  (Hurd, 2006).
• Comparison of ice core data with proxy estimates
  of carbon dioxide (such as fossil leaf stomata
  indices) indicate ice core data consistently
  undervalues carbon dioxide concentrations by at
  miminum 100 to 200 ppm (Jaworowski, Zbigniew,
  Science, 2007).

39
Carbon Dioxide Chemical Methods from Beck 2004
40
Carbon Dioxide Chemical Methods from Beck 2004
41
Summation Ice Core Data

• Climate models assume the preindustrial carbon
  dioxide levels were around 240 to 260 ppmv, based
  on ice core data. They also assume that the
  latest Mauna Loa station data indicates that
  carbon dioxide has increased steadily to maximum
  values for the past 100 years.
• Ice core data has been demonstrated to be
  unreliable and the Mauna Loa data ignores prior
  data collected before the station initiation that
  found carbon dioxide levels above 400 ppm this
  century.
• Therefore the basic assumptions of the climate
  models regarding current and past carbon dioxide
  level that are based on ice core data are
  demonstratably underestimated and therefore
  suspect and probably invalid. Values of
  historical carbon dioxide levels require further
  independent verification by other proxy
  measurements or direct measurements if they can
  be developed.

42
Carbon Dioxide Increases and Global Temperatures
the past 200 years

• Assumption The primary greenhouse gases are
  water vapor, carbon dioxide, and methane. The
  global temperatures will reflect increases of
  carbon dioxide and methane.
• The climate models and most proponents of global
  warming postulate that the dramatic increase in
  the use of fossil fuels as part of the industrial
  revolution (particularly after the 1850s) have
  caused the amount of carbon dioxide to steadily
  increase. This increase will be reflected in
  global temperatures because of increases in
  greenhouse gases and the resultant affect on the
  radiative balance of the planet.

43
Temperature Trends Last 150 years
From Robinson, A.B., et.al., Jrnl of American Phy
Surgeons, 2007.
44
Comparison of Carbon Based Fuel Use and Global
Temperatures

• 1. Comparison with use of carbon based fuel and
  global temperatures have found contradictory
  correlations for the past 150 years.
• 2. Increase in global temperature from the 1910
  to 1940 compared to flat or small increase in
  carbon based fuels, and correlation was negative
  between 1940 to the late 1970s. Only positive
  correlation was after 1980s.
• Sea level rise and glacier shortening demonstrate
  no correlation.
• Solar activity actually correlates more closely.

Robinson, A.R., et. Al., 2007.
45
Up to Date Temperature Trends
46
Temperature Trends last 10 years
47
The Relationship of Carbon Dioxide and
Temperature over Geologic Time

• Ice core data such as the Vostok ice cores have
  found that during the fluctuations of temperature
  that have occurred in the last 400,000 years,
  carbon dioxide values have increased and
  decreases in response to temperature changes, and
  have not been a driver of temperature changes.
• Usually the maximum carbon dioxide concentration
  will follow a peak in temperature by about 400 to
  800 years.
• The explanation for this is probably the oceans
  and other water bodies that contain carbon
  dioxide are outgasing this molecule as they warm,
  like a can of soda outgases its carbonation as it
  sits.

48
Vostok Ice Core Data
49
Summation Carbon Fuel use and Temperature
Correlation

• A positive global temperature correlation with
  increase in fossil fuel use is observable only in
  last 20 years of last century.
• Comparison with beginning or middle part of
  century flat or negative.
• Solar activity actually is a better fit for
  global temperature correlation.

50
Temp vs CO2 using Mauna Loa Data
51
Examination of Water Vapor Constant Assumption

• Most climate models assume that as carbon dioxide
  is increased the temperature of the atmosphere
  will increase which will increase the evaporation
  of water adding more water vapor. As water vapor
  is a greenhouse gas this would amplify the
  greenhouse effect.
• However this is gross simplification of a much
  more complex system. The concentration of water
  vapor in the atmosphere is not controlled by
  surface evaporation, but by precipitation
  systems, as described previously. Even though
  surface evaporation tries to fill the atmosphere
  with water vapor, precipitation systems do not
  allow that to happen and disperse the water vapor
  and its heating/cooling effects. Relative
  humidity's near the surface average no more than
  70 percent.
• It is possible all that will occur if you add
  more carbon dioxide is an increase in the
  efficiency of the worlds precipitation systems
  ability to circulate and remove water vapor from
  the atmosphere, and thus no increase in global
  temperatures.
• Therefore the assumption that an increase in
  carbon dioxide will result in an increase in
  water vapor is speculation that has no real
  scientific basis.

52
Comparison of Climate Model Assumptions with
Actual Physical Measurements

• A number of instruments have been introduced in
  the last 25 years (such as satellites and
  balloons) which have measured some of the
  atmospheric parameters that climate models
  predict with increase in carbon dioxide.
• One such parameter is the temperature of the
  lower and upper troposphere. Climate models
  projecting increases in global temperatures
  because of anthropogenic increases in carbon
  dioxide all project significant increases in the
  temperatures of the troposphere from the 7 to 13
  kilometer range.
• Actual measurements of global temperatures in the
  lower troposphere do not match the predicted
  ranges.
• The models predictions of lower troposphere
  temperatures are therefore are to be considered
  either suspect or invalid.

53
Comparison of Actual Satellite Temperature
Measurements with Climate Models Predictions
Douglas, D.H., et. al, International Journal of
Climatology, 2007
54
Comparison of Actual Satellite Temperature
Measurements with Climate Models Predictions

• Temperature trends for the satellite era
  (C/decade). Relax it is simple. HadCRUT, GHCN
  and GISS are various compilations of surface
  temperature observations. IGRA, RATPAC, HadAT2,
  and RAOBCORE are all balloon-based observations
  of the surface and lower troposphere. UAH, RSS,
  UMD are satellite-based data for various levels
  of the atmosphere. The 22-model average comes
  from an ensemble of 22 model simulations from the
  most widely used models from throughout the
  world. The light red lines are the 2 and -2
  standard errors of the mean from the 22 models
  (from Douglass et al., 2007).

55
Comparison of Model Output with Actual
Measurements
56
Comparison of Aqua Satellite Measurements with
Climate Models Predictions

• Feedback measurements are at the crux of the
  global warming debate. Some of the major
  feedback mechanisms that climate models predict
  is increase in water vapor with increase in
  carbon dioxide.
• Potential feedback mechanisms are being directly
  measured by the NASA Aqua satellite, which was
  designed and launched by NASA to measure climate
  parameters such as water vapor variations. Aqua
  satellite has been collecting data since 2002.
• The latest data from Aqua determined water vapor
  does not increase in concentration with increases
  in carbon dioxide. (Spencer, R.F. et. al.,
  2007).

57
Comparison of NASA Aqua Satellite Measurements
with Climate Models Predictions

• As stated on March 17, 2008 by Jennifer Marohasy,
  a biologist and senior fellow of Melbourne-based
  think tank the Institute of Public Affairs on ABC
  Radio National What all the climate models
  suggest is that, when you've got warming from
  additional carbon dioxide, this will result in
  increased water vapour, so you're going to get a
  positive feedback. That's what the models have
  been indicating. What this great data from the
  NASA Aqua satellite ... (is) actually showing is
  just the opposite, that with a little bit of
  warming, weather processes are compensating, so
  they're actually limiting the greenhouse effect
  and you're getting a negative rather than a
  positive feedback."
• As explained in testimony before Congress on
  March 13, 2007 Dr. Spencer stated, As rain
  system activity and tropospheric warmth reach
  peak levels during tropical intraseasonal
  oscillations (ISOs), we measured an increase in
  outgoing infrared radiationwhich was traced to a
  decrease in cirrus cloudiness.
• Increase in outgoing infrared radiation means the
  radiative balance of the planet will cool, not
  warm as purported by climate models predicting
  human induced anthropogenic global warming.

58
Argus Project and Ocean Temperatures

• The Argus Project is a series of 3000 or more
  buoys that have been launched throughout the
  oceans to measure temperatures. They have the
  ability to dive several thousand feet in depth to
  check temperatures in the deep ocean as well as
  the surface.
• Researchers found that the average temperature of
  the upper ocean rose by 0.16 degrees Fahrenheit
  from 1993 to 2003, and then fell 0.055 degrees
  Fahrenheit from 2003 to 2005. The recent decrease
  is a dip equal to about one-fifth of the heat
  gained by the ocean between 1955 and 2003. They
  analyzed data from a broad array of ocean
  moorings, floats and shipboard sensors, and
  supported their results with data from NASA's
  Jason and Topex/Poseidon satellites.

59
Argus Project and Ocean Temperatures

• Monitoring the heat content of the oceans is
  vital to understanding how Earth's energy balance
  is changing. "The capacity of Earth's oceans to
  store the sun's energy is more than 1,000 times
  that of Earth's atmosphere," Lyman said. "It's
  important to measure upper ocean temperature,
  since 84 percent of the heat absorbed by Earth
  since the mid-1950s has gone toward warming the
  ocean. Measuring ocean temperature is really
  measuring the progress of global warming." The
  NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory is
  currently developing an ocean observing system to
  better quantify changes in the ocean to include
  heat content.
• The recent changes in ocean temperature run deep.
  A small amount of cooling was detected at the
  ocean's surface, consistent with global
  measurements of sea-surface temperature. The
  maximum amount of cooling was seen at a depth of
  about 1,300 feet, but substantial cooling was
  still observed at 2,500 feet and the cooling
  appears to extend deeper.
• Lyman said the cause of the recent cooling is not
  yet clear. Research suggests it may be due to a
  net loss of heat from the Earth. "Further work
  will be necessary to solve this cooling mystery,"
  he said.

60
Ocean Temperatures

• The Argus data is consistent with the finding
  that the dodecal Pacific Oscillation in the ocean
  has changed bringing cold waters to the surface
  in the northern and middle Pacific.
• However it directly contradicts the predictions
  of most climate models that purport anthropogenic
  global warming in that those models predict ocean
  temperatures will rise.

61
ENSO Variations

• El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the
  Pacific is the most important coupled
  ocean-atmosphere phenomenon to cause global
  climate variability on interannual time scales.
• The following graph show its variation from
  average since the 1940s.
• It shows a trend of lower than average
  temperatures from the 1940s to the mid 1970s,
  followed by a higher than average trend from the
  mid 1970s to 2005.
• This correlates with the general trend of global
  temperatures, indicating ENSO is an important
  natural phenomena affecting global temperatures.

62
ENSO Chart
From Wolter and Timlin, NOAA, 1993, 1998
63
PDO Chart

• Pacific Dodecal Oscillation has turned cool this
  past year, indicating cooler temperatures the
  next coming years, if the cycle acts as before.
• PDO graph showing its average temperatures per
  year is next slide.

64
PDO Graph
Climate Skeptic August 13, 2008
65
Arctic Temp vs PDO AMO
66
Comparing Sun vs Temp vs PDOAMO
67
Summation

• The hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming Is
  based on assuming the increase of carbon dioxide
  in the atmosphere this past century is due to use
  of carbon based fuels by humans.
• The hypothesis postulates that increases in
  carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is modifying the
  radiative balance of the atmosphere so that more
  infrared radiation is trapped and increasing
  global temperatures. Climatic models are used to
  explain the mechanism of this phenomena.
• However this hypothesis has not matched observed
  atmospheric data in the following ways

68
Invalidations Temperature

• Proxy data and ice core data has shown carbon
  dioxide has varied by large concentrations over
  geologic time and has been much higher than the
  current 350 ppmv.
• The suppositions of the range of normal
  atmospheric range of carbon dioxide in the
  atmosphere since the Holocene is probably flawed
  due to the limitations of Ice cores to retain
  carbon dioxide and thus the concentrations are
  undervalued. Actual measurements by highly
  accurate chemical methods of carbon dioxide this
  past two centuries do not match ice core values.
  
• The geologic record indicates that increases in
  carbon dioxide have followed temperature
  increases in the atmosphere and not caused them.
• Global temperatures increased from the 1900s to
  the 1940s, then decreased from the 1940s to the
  1970s, which does not correlate with the supposed
  human used carbon based fuel carbon dioxide
  driver phenomena.
• In the last ten years global temperatures have
  been flat, which also does not correlate with
  observed increase in carbon dioxide.

69
Invalidations Models

• Solar irradiance has not been a constant this
  past century and has in fact been the highest
  observed in the last 8,000 to 11,400 years,
  directly contradicting important assumptions of
  the computer models.
• Temperature measurements in the troposphere have
  not matched model predictions, which calculate
  that the temperature must increase from 7 to 13
  kilometers above the surface in order for the
  anthopogenic mechanism to work. Actual
  measurements of temperatures in the last 25 years
  have shown temperatures in this atmospheric range
  much lower than the models predicted.
• Recent data by Aqua satellites have found that
  the predicted carbon dioxide/water vapor feedback
  mechanism to be negative (decrease in water vapor
  and increase in infrared radiation emission into
  space with increase in carbon dioxide) instead
  of positive, as required by computer models.
  Due to limitations of the effect of carbon
  dioxide infrared absorption with concentration, a
  positive feedback mechanism is essential for the
  anthropogenic climate change hypothesis to be
  correct.
• Argus buoys have found ocean temperatures have
  decreased in the past five years, contradicting
  most model predictions.

70
Natural Phenomena Climate Drivers

• Variation in solar irradiance correlates very
  closely with global temperatures in both geologic
  and recent time scales.
• In recent time scales ocean current phenomena
  such as ENSO and PDO have also correlated very
  closely with global temperatures.
• Precipitation systems in the atmosphere have been
  shown to have large buffering effects on
  temperature increases and variations in
  atmospheric gas concentrations based on current
  NASA satellite data.

71
Conclusions

• Actual data measuring parameters testing
  hypothesis of anthropogenic global warming have
  determined its predictions do not match actual
  atmospheric conditions.
• Warming of the past 400 years since the Little
  Ice Age is much better explained by natural
  phenomena, the combination of increased solar
  activity and ocean current variations and their
  measurable effect on global temperatures.
• Recent quiescence of sun during switch from solar
  cycle 23 to 24 indicate a period of global
  cooling may be starting, reinforced by the PDO
  and ENSO cooling ocean pattern cycles which have
  been observed this past two years.

72
The Role of the Political Organizations, the
Media, and the Scientific Community in distorting
the actual state of science on Climate Change

• The general public is under the mistaken
  assumption that the United Nations IPCC is a
  neutral scientific body. It is not. It is a
  political organization whose charter specifically
  called for determination of how human produced
  global warming was affecting the planet. It
  assumes that humans are affecting the climate and
  looks for scientific research which may supply
  evidence for that hypothesis and ignores or
  suppresses contradictory evidence. Its general
  summations are notorious for this. It has also
  used scientific papers without proper independent
  peer review that support its position. The Mann
  papers on proxy determined historical
  temperatures being the most notorious example.
  These papers used utterly flawed statistical
  methods to analyze proxy measurements of
  historical global temperatures and state the
  earth in the late 20th centrury was the warmest
  in over 1,000 years. Outside independent review
  forced the retraction of that paper. It is now
  accepted that temperatures within the last 20
  years (called the late 20th century warm period)
  are lower than temperatures that occurred other
  cyclically occurring historical warm periods such
  as the Minoan Warm period (1400 1300 BC), the
  Roman Warm period (300 100 BC), and the
  Medieval warm period (800 1000 AD).
• Besides the UN, organizations such as the Nobel
  committee have glorified politicians pretending
  to be scientists whose dissertations on global
  warming have been shown to be at least misleading
  and in most cases demonstratably false.

73
The Role of the Political Organizations, the
Media, and the Scientific Community in distorting
the actual state of science on Climate Change

• The media have offered extremely poor reporting
  of the state of the science of global warming.
  The media is biased toward sensationalism,
  because it is believed this engenders good
  ratings. Therefore they consistently report the
  state of climate science with the theme the sky
  is falling and the planet is being destroyed. A
  few examples, after the year of Hurricane Katrina
  and Rita most media posited that human induced
  global warming was probably making hurricanes
  more frequent and dangerous. Did they retract
  that position after three very quiet hurricane
  years? Of course not. Has the media reported
  that there has been no increase in global
  temperatures the last ten years? No. Has the
  media reported that the Antarctica has gotten
  increasing colder overall the last 50 years and
  the amount of ice and snow mass has steadily
  increased during these 50 years? No, they report
  large ice sheet fractures and releases, which are
  spectacular, but are small compared to the amount
  of ice and snow mass increase. The media reported
  at the beginning of this summer that the north
  pole might have no ice this year. They have
  ignored the fact that this winter was the coldest
  globally in 50 years, that Alaska has had a very
  cool summer, and that there is almost no chance
  the north pole ice will vanish this year. They
  also try to frighten the public about extinction
  of polar bears due to lose of habitat, ignoring
  the fact that the polar bear population has been
  growing steadily for 50 years and now is
  extremely robust.
• In general the media report readily news that
  predicts that humans are causing global
  temperatures to rise while ignoring scientific
  research showing these positions have no basis in
  fact. The media also attempts to demonize
  scientists whose work refutes anthropogenic
  global warming calling them climate doubters and
  darkly implying they are tools of oil companies.

74
The Role of the Political Organizations, the
Media, and the Scientific Community in distorting
the actual state of science on Climate Change

• The scientific community is also not unbiased in
  climate research. It is much easier to obtain
  grant money if you proclaim that your research
  will investigate some aspect of humans
  destroying the planet than if you propose to
  study the natural variation of climate.
• A large number of climate scientists careers are
  based on findings which they believed indicated
  human induced global warming. These scientist
  are reluctant to have their lifes work shown to
  be fatally flawed, just like any normal human is
  reluctant to be told his job is worthless.
  Therefore there is considerable resistance to any
  finding or funding of research that intends to
  seriously challenge that hypothesis of human
  induced global warming. Nevertheless, this
  research is proceeding and yielding results that
  directly contradict the anthropogenic hypothesis.