Byeongwon Park

1
Second International Seville Seminar on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
Impacts on policy and decision making, 28th- 29th
September 2006
Korean Technology Foresight for S T Policy
Making
Byeongwon Park Technology Foresight Center Korea
Institute of ST Evaluation and Planning
2

• Second International Seville Seminar on
  Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
  Impacts on policy and decision making, 28th- 29th
  September 2006

3

• Koreas ST has achieved remarkable growth during
  the last half century.

4
Past and Present of Koreas ST
World 8th Power in ST by 2025
Rapid Progress all the area in ST related
activity
Corporate Research Institutes 10,270(2004) 44
?(since 2000)
Technological Competitiveness 2nd (IMD,
2005) 7th(WEF, 2005)
of Researcher 156,220 FTE 44 ?(since 2000)
New ST Administration Since 2004
SCI Paper 19,279(2004) 55 ?(since 2000)
US Patents 4,428 34 ?(since 2000)
RD Budget 28,774(milliom US PPP) 56 ?(since
2000)
5
Overview of Government RD in Korea
Current National RD Budget
Governmental RD 7.7B (05)
MOCIE 19 for Industrial Technology
Development
Rest of Ministries (Defense, Agriculture,Transpo
rtation,etc.)
MOST 19 for Scientific RD
MOST(OSTI) 11 for Managing Research
Organizations
MOCIE Ministry of Commerce, Industry
Energy MOST Ministry of Science
TechnologyMIC Ministry of Information
Communication OSTI Office of Science
Technology Innovation
MIC 9 for Information Communication
Technology
2
6
Government RD Related Organizational Structure
President
N S T C
MOST
Vice Prime Ministry
OSTI
MOCIE
MIC
KISTEP
KOSEF
ITEP
IITA
Main Bodies of RD(Research Institutions under
Research Council, Private Companies,
Universities, etc)
NSTC National Science Technology Council
5
7
Main Government RD Programs in Korea

2000
2001
2002
2004
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97


98

99
Dual Use Tech. Program
HAN Project (G7)
Space Tech. Development Program
MOST
MOST National RD Programs
Creative Research Initiatives
NRL Program
21C Frontier Program
Nuclear Energy Development Program
Next-generation growth engine program
Basic Science Program
MOCIE
Industrial Technology Program (Program for SMEs
Key Tech. Program)
Alternative Energy Energy Conservation Program
Information Telecommunication Technology Program
MIC
Dual Use Tech. Program
MOD
Health Medical Technology Program
MOHW
Environmental Technology Program
MOEnv
Key Environment Tech. Program
Agricultural Technology Program
MOAF
SMBA
Small Business Innovation Research
MOE
Academia Support Program
14
BK21 Program
8

• BUT,
• Korea faces the new and daunting
  challenges in coming years.

9
Korean Economy in the midst of Uncertainty

• High oil price
• - 97 import of energy
• Energy-intensive industry
• (ex.steel Ind.)

• Increasing risk due to new Tech
• Advances in NT, BT, ET
• Fast-follower ? World leader

Fast Ageing society -fertility rate
4.53(70)?1.08 (06) -Net decrease in population
after 2020
Socioeconomic Polarization -Collapse of middle
class -Big Corp. vs. SMEs -Seoul vs. Regional
North Korea

• FTA economic Block
• 38.3 GDP dependence on Export
• Rising China
• -Nutcraker Situation

10
Some challenges in ST area
Weak Basic Research
Increasing Technology Trade Deficits
a serious sociocultural phenomena of avoiding
sci. eng. among the young
"Uncertainty cannot be pinned down or coaxed into
cages. It is only partly tamable, and we must
learn to live with the beast. -Paul J.H.
Schoemaker
11
How can Korea find a way to the future of ST?
Foresight Activities
12
YEAR DELPHI MIXED PANEL/SCENARIO
1970-    
1989     Netherlands
1990 1st Germany 5th Japan   OECD(?Present)
1991     1st US-Core Tech.
1992     New Zealand, UN(?present)
1993 1st Korean TF(?1994)   2nd US-Critical Tech., Germany-21C Tech.
1994 France Japan/Germany 1st UK Netherlands
1995 6th Japan   France-100 core Tech. 3rd US-critical Tech.
1996 Japan Germany   AU-ASTEC, Finalnd(1996-98) Netherlands (Future Committee) Italy industrial forecasting ACUNU Millennium Project Nigeria, India, Philippines
1997   Spain-OPTI Ireland
1998 Austria Germany US George Washington Univ.     South Africa, New Zealand Sweden, 4th US- critical Tech. Norway, APEC EU-IPTS Futures, Netherlands
1999 2nd Korean TF(?1999) Spain APEC Hungary-TEP 2nd UK, Germany-FUTUR(?present) Ireland, Italy
2000   Venezuela 2nd France-100 Core Tech. Italy 2nd Industrial forecasting China, Portugal, Brazil
2001 7th Japan   Czech, Mlata, Cyprus, Estonia
2002   Turkey Bulgaria, Rumania, 3rd UK(?present)
2003-2004 8th Japan(?2004) China  3rd Korean TF(?2004) EU(FP 6 ?(till 2006) UK (every year) Germany( every year), UN, OECD
13
Foresight is booming everywhere in the world

• Increasing interest in thinking about the future
  of ST
• in order to strengthen the ability to anticipate
  future ST related issues
• In order to formulate new strategy for ST policy
• Nowadays technology foresight(TF) is practiced in
  many countries and private firms.
• Because TF can make a unique strategic
  contribution to the policy maker and firm manager
  as well as social stakeholders.
• Especially in the science and technology related
  area.
• The need for priorities in science and technology
  
• No one country can afford vast amount of RD
  spending
• This Seville Seminar is a premier example that
  shows the current emerging issues in Foresight
  activities.

14
Currently On-going TF activity in Korea
Type Sponsoring Ministry Facilitating organization Thematic Area or Project Title Time Horizon Methodology
TF (2006) Ministry of Information and Communication IITA (Institute for Information Technology Advancement) Foresight for Information Technology -2030 Delphi
TF (2006) Ministry of Information and Communication NCA (National Computerization Agency) Ubiquitous Korea 15 yrs Panel
TF (2006) Ministry of Health and Welfare KHIDI (Korea Health Industry Development Institute) Future Trends in Health care and Life Science 15 yrs Delphi
TF (2006) Ministry of Environment KIEST (Korea Institute of Environmental Science and Technology) Future Trends in Environmental Technology 15 yrs Environmental Scanning Delphi
TF (2006) Ministry of Science and Technology KISTEP (Korea Institute of ST Evaluation and Planning) Thematic Foresight -Nanomaterial -Stem cell -Ubiquitous Computing 15 yrs Panel Scenario
F The Presidential Office Presidential Committee on Education Innovation Future of Education in Korea -What we do right now? 15 yrs Panel
TRM (2001-present) Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy KOTEF (Korea Industrial Technology Foundation) Technology Roadmap for - Material and Component - Industries (Robot, Battery, Semiconductor, Automobile etc.) 10 yrs TRM Panel
ST (2006) Ministry of Planning and Budget Co-Work with KDI(Korea Development Institute) Vision 2030 - Layout for government Budget Spending up to 2030 -2030 Panel
15
Overview of Korean Technology Foresight carried
out by MOST

• ST basic Law Article 13 (enacted in 2001)
• Every 5 years (carried out by KISTEP)
• Provide the vision and direction of emerging ST
  area identify new technology that may have high
  potential for growth of national wealth and
  betterment of quality of human life
• Has to implement in ST basic plan (every 5 year,
  2nd Plan for 2008-2012))
• ? 1st TF (1993-1994) and 2nd TF(1997-1998) were
  Lab-Directed Research Projects carried out by
  STEPI and KISTEP
• STEPI (Science and Technology Policy Institute)
• ? 3rd TF was carried out in 2003-2004 by KISTEP
  and it is the first TF after enactment of ST
  basic Law.

16
3rd Korean TF Characteristics

• Consideration of socio-economic needs and issues
  in future Korea and enlargement of participation
  of the stakeholders
• Application of Delphi methods for emerging
  technology that may solve the future needs and
  issue
• Scenario writing for future society
• Future prospect, needs/issues and technology
• Internal consistency
• Increase awareness the role of ST in the
  knowledge-based society
• Offering of policy alternatives to promote
  knowledge-based innovative society

Time Horizon up to year 2030 Project Duration
2003.7 - 2004.12 TYPE OF EXERCISE ADDRESSED
National covering all ST fields and
the entire territory of Korea
17
3rd Korean TF Procedures
1st phase
2nd Phase
Future perspectives Needs and Issues of
society (4 actors-15 categories-43
subcategories (Dec. 2003)
Future Technology Subjects and Delphi
Survey Analysis (Aug. 2004)
3rd Phase
Future Social Systems Scenario Building (Dec.
2004)
18
Korean TF Sector Expert Panels
10 sectors (based on key words)
Space earth
Material  manufacturing
Information and knowledge
Food bio-resource
Life health
Energy environment
Safety Securuty
Social Infrastructure
Management innovation 
ST and society/culture
Delphi Survey
Provide List of Future Technologies
Scenario
19
Korean TF Results

• Technology Foresight with socio-economic
  consideration (3rd Generation Foresight)
• Future perspectives, assessment of future needs
  issues
• Scenario writing on future social systems
  (education, labor, healthcare, safety)
• Identify 761 future technology subjects
• 61 of them will realize between 2011-2015
• Korea is still lagging all future technology area
• Korea has the strong competitiveness in IT area
• Space and earth is most lagging area(7-10 years)
• Strong emphasis on dissemination to the general
  public
• Book, Comics, Movie in addition to formal report
• Heavy media exposures
• Government took follow-up action quickly
• Future Strategic Technology

20
National Strategic Future Technology Initiative

• Government launches new project to identify
  emerging generic technologies at the national
  level based on 3rd Korean foresight results
• Critical attributes of national strategic
  technology
• Emerging
• Disruptive
• Converged
• Strategic area where government should be involved

21
Priority Setting Procedure
Survey from Industrial RD Inst.
3rd Technology Foresight
Overseas DB
Future Tech. Candidate DB (KISTEP)
1st Screening (Expert Panel)
Survey 2nd Screening
22
Future Strategic Technology 21

• Digital convergence
• Smart computing
• Nano and functional material

Economic Impact

• Information security
• Super efficient transportation
• Bio-resource
• Satellite
• fusion

• Cognitive science and humanoid robot
• Culture contents

• Regenerative medicine

Quality of Life
Public Need

• Bio-safety defense
• Drug discovery personalized medicine
• Bio-diversity and natural resources conservation

• Ubiquitous civil infrastructure
• Hazard?disaster forecast
• Next generation nuclear energy and safety
• Clean and renewable energy

• Global observing system
• Climate/weather forecasting
• Marine territory management

23
Technology Roadmapping in Korea
24
Brief History of TRM in Korea

• Public Sector
• MOCIE
• Industrial Technology Roadmap
• 1st Phase(2000. 92001. 8), 2rd Phase(2001.
  72002. 6), 3rd Phase(2003. 62004. 6), 4th
  Phase(2004. 102005. 9)
• Annually try the new indursty area(product) and
  update old ones.
• MOST
• National Technology Roadmap(2002)
• MIC
• Private Sector
• Samsung Electronics
• Customized TRM based on SRI-framework

25
NTRM Approach
Analysis of Industrial Need 5 visions
13 Directions 49 Strategic Product/Functions
99 Key Technologies NTRM

• Incorporate existing TRMs into NTRM with
  necessary modifications
• Handle basic ST separately from NTRM based on
  bottom-up approach

• NTRM include Macro Roadmaps for strategic
  product/functions and
• detailed TRM for chosen key technologies

Inter-Government CoordinationTaskForce
NSTC Office
KISTEP Project Team
NTRM Head Council
Vision V Committee
Vision IV Committee
Vision I Committee
Vision II Committee
Vision III Committee
TRM team A
TRM team B
TRM team C
TRM team N
..
26
?. NTRM by 5 Visions
27
Five National ST Visions 2012
Building an information- knowledge-intelligence
society
1
28
1. Building an Information-Knowledge-Intelligence
Society
Meeting a variety of human needs in all areas of
life by making IT service more intelligent,
mobile, and user-friendly
Anytime, Anywhere, Any-device Communication
Innovation in Contents Service
Ambient Intelligence
29
Direction of Development
Strategic products and Functions
Key Technologies
Vision
Optical Internet Technology
High-Speed Wireless Multimedia Technology
Mobile Multimedia Contents Technology
New Semiconductor Device Technology
Information- Knowledge- Intelligence Society
Digital Convergence
Intelligent Network Technology
Anytime, Anywhere, Any-device Communication
High Density Storage Technology
Intelligent Computing
WireWireless Integration System Device Technology
Ubiquitous Network
Digital Signal Processing Technology
Mobile Wearable IT Device
Tera-bit Optical Communication Elements Technology
Digital Broadcasting Technology
E-marketplace Technology
Contents
Next Generation Information System Technology
Innovation in Contents Service
E-Commerce
S/W Standard/Design/Reuse
E-Finance Technology
Business Service
Information Search DBMS Technology
Digital Information Design Technology
Knowledge/Information Security
Information Security Technology
Movie/Video/Digital Media Standardization
Intelligent Man-Machine Interface
Digital Contents Authoring Technology
Intelligent Robot
Game Engine Technology
Ambient Intelligence
Intelligent Home Appliance
Cyber Communication Technology
Culture Original Form Restore Technology
Intelligent Building/Home
Art Intelligent Technology
Intelligent Transport System
MEMS Technology
Intelligent Medical System
Home Network Technology
Intelligent Home Appliance Technology
Display Technology
Bio-Diagnosis Technology
30
Portfolio Analysis of Strategic Products and
Functions
31
High-speed Wireless Multimedia/ 4G Mobile
Communication
High
Competitiveness of domestic technology
Medium
Low
?
wideband CDMA modem
narrowband CDMA modem
?
QAM,OFDM,Diversity,Turbo code
?
High-speed packet modem
?
Power control, Smart antenna, Interference, SDR
?
Technology
??
IP-based RAN
Fixed ATM/IP
?
High-speed adaptive RAN
IP-based RAN with smart antenna
?
?
Wireless IP core tech. (QoS, Handoff,Resource
management)
?
??
Network interworking(GW)
Homogeneous network Integration
??
Active core network
?
DO/GPRS
DO/DV/GPRS enhancements
??
??
ALL-IP core network
?
??
high-speed hot spot gt 100 Mbps
?
Adhoc, Bluetooth
PAN
??
2007
2002
2012
Product
2G cellular system
HMI/Hot Spot system
Cdma20001x EV system
4G mobile comm.
Cdma20001x EV-DO/ EV-DV
W-CDMA system/ HSDPA
32
Corporate Foresight Samsung

• SGTO based in IBM GTO
• ? Identify Emerging Technology Trends Significant
  to Industry
• Disruptive to Existing Business Potential to
  Create New Ones
• Exponential and Threshold
• How New Technology can Impact Customers/Businesses
  
• Understand Customer Challenges
• Has a Direct Influence on Technical Strategy of
  Company

• Future Technology Center (SAIT)
• Sectoral Technology Forecasting

• Siemens Picture of Future
• Combination of Retropolation and Extrapolation

33
Challenges

• Due to Law article, it seems to be quite
  favorable situation to run TF in nation-wide in
  Korea
• But there are several things to be addressed.
• Capability to run TF (Facilitator)
• Not many
• Not enough experiences
• Methodological Competence
• Till now, DELPHI is major method but continued to
  use?
• What is the best combination of methods
• Impact on Policy making
• Not Clear yet

34
Thank you
Dr. Byeongwon Park ? bpark_at_kistep.re.kr ? 82 2
589 2931