Forest simulation models in Finland: main developments and challenges

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COST ACTION FP0603 Forest models for research
and decision support in sustainable forest
management

• Forest simulation models in Finland main
  developments and challenges
• WG1
• Jari Hynynen, Annikki Mäkelä Kalle Eerikäinen

1st Workshop and Management Committee
Meeting.Institute of Silviculture, BOKU.8-9 of
May 2008Vienna, Austria
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Main features of Finnish forests

• Forest cover (total/share) 21.9 mill. ha (72
  of land area)
• Growing stock, annual growth and cuts
• ca 2000 mill. m3
• annual growth ca 98 mill. m3
• annual cuts 56 miil
• Main species Scots pine, Norway spruce, birch
  sp., European aspen, alder sp.
• Main non-wood products and services
• moose hunting
• nature tourism
• reindeer meet production
• berries, mushrooms
• Main risks
• 4 of the forest area severely damaged, 23
  moderately damaged
• damage agents abiotic (wind, snow), fungi,
  moose, insects
• Management and silvicultural characteristics
• mainly even-aged forestry
• typical management program
• artificial or natural regeneration (incl. site
  preparation)
• precommercial thinning

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Forest modelling approaches and trends

• Empirical models
• Main types of models developed
• extensive resrearch on modelling covers all types
  of growth and yield models
• most widely applied models are distance-independen
  t individual-tree models
• Trends in modelling
• model evaluation and reliability of simulation
  systems
• models for multipurpose forest management
• biomass and carbon sequestration
• deadwood dynamics and other valuable stand
  characteristics for forest biodiversity
• wood properties
• modelling of stand structure and development
  based on multi-source inventory data
• comprehensive analysis of the whole value chain
  of forestry (from seed to the end-product)

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Forest modelling approaches and trends

• Mechanistic models
• Main types of models developed
• stand growth models based on carbon balance
  including tree population dynamics
• a lot of supporting work on photosynthesis and
  other processes, tree physiology
• modular approaches with summary models
• Trends in modelling
• prediction of regional scale productivity from
  weather and inventory data
• process models predicting wood quality and yield
• models for multipurpose forest management
• biomass and carbon sequestration
• deadwood dynamics and other valuable stand
  characteristics for forest biodiversity
• wood properties
• comprehensive analysis of the whole value chain
  of forestry (from seed to the end-product)

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Modelling non-timber products and services

• Models for non-timber products
• berry and mushroom yields
• yield of lichen for reindeer forage
• Indicators of biodiversity
• occurence of epiphytic lichens, fungi, and some
  beetle species

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Models for predicting risk of hazards

• risk assessment models of abiotic damages
• wind (probability of disturbance and mechanistic
  models)
• snow
• risk assessment models of biotic damages
• root rot and other pathogens
• sawfly
• moose

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Simulators and information systems

• List existing forest simulators or decision
  support systems
• Stand-level simulators
• MOTTI - a stand-level analysis and decision
  support tool (Metla) www.metla.fi/metinfo/motti/i
  ndex-en.htm
• SMA - a stand-level simulation-optimization tool
  (University of Helsinki)
• SIMO - open source forest management planning
  software (University of Helsinki)
• Forest level decision support systems
• MELA - a forestry model and an operational
  decision support system (Metla)
  www.metla.fi/metinfo/mela/index-en.htm
• Monsu - forest planning program (T. Pukkala)
• Process-based models and simulators
• Photosynthesis SPP (Mäkelä et al. 2006), PreLUED
  (Mäkelä et al. 2007)
• Whole-tree growth over rotation
• CROBAS (Mäkelä 1997)
• LIGNUM (Perttunen et al. 1996)
• Tree structure and wood quality
• STEMS Development of 3D stem structure based on
  structural regularities and profile theory
  (Mäkelä 2001)
• PipeQual CROBAS runs stem development (Mäkelä
  and Mäkinen 2003)
• RetroSTEM empirical height functions run stem
  development (Mäkelä et al. 2004)
• FinnFor - ecological forest process model

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Research highlight

• Growth and yield models are widely applied at all
  levels of planning
• scenarios on the development of forest resources
  at national and regional levels
• scenarios based on NFI-data and produced with
  MELA-system
• model-based approach applied in forest management
  planning at forest holding-level
• private forest owners (coverage of planning ca.
  70)
• public forests (Forest and Park Service)
• all the major forest companies
• models and simulation tools are widely applied in
  preparation of silvicultural recommendations
• thinning guides
• determination of rotation length

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Future challenges

• development of planning tools for multipurpose
  forest management predicting
• different "products" from forests (quantity and
  quality)
• alternatives in forest management
• risks related to forest management
• effects of changing environment (incl. climate
  change)
• reliability of the simulations/scenarios
• effects on economics
• development of analysis tools for the whole value
  chain of forestry (from seed to end-product)

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Innovative references

• List a maximum of 5 references, the most
  innovative ones in your country and that provide
  added value to other countries.