User Requirements/Applications

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User Requirements/Applications

• World Climate Research Programme
• Antonio J. Busalacchi
• ESSIC, University of Maryland
• Chair, JSC WCRP

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• How well is the sustained global ocean observing
  system providing the data that is needed for
  climate research?
• What else is needed?
• What is not needed?
• Any other feedback from the perspective of the
  other international research programs as users of
  the observing system?

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WCRP use/need of sustained global ocean
observations

• Fundamental/basic research
• Process studies
• Parameterizations (e.g. CPTs)
• Monitoring (including assessment and attribution)
• (Re)Analysis
• Initialization of prediction

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Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR)

• Studies physical mechanisms of climate
  variability and predictability on seasonal,
  interannual, decadal and longer time scales, and
  the role of the oceans in them.
• CLIVAR ocean basin panels develop pilot
  research-based observing systems focusing on the
  role of oceans in regional climate change and on
  important processes that affect the larger
  climate system.
• The CLIVAR basin panels have been a key partner
  for the Ocean Observations Panel for Climate
  (OOPC), a joint panel of the WCRP, the Global
  Climate Observing System (GCOS), and the Global
  Ocean Observing System (GOOS) in developing
  recommendations for the global module of the GOOS

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WCRP Observation and Assimilation Panel (WOAP)

• Coordinates with the WCRP/GCOS co-sponsored
  panels AOPC (Atmospheric Observation Panel for
  Climate) and OOPC (Ocean Observation Panel for
  Climate) and the GCOS Terrestrial Observation
  Panel for Climate (TOPC) to establish high
  quality and long-lived observations of the
  climate.
• WCRP projects and contributors have led
  atmospheric re-analysis for 20 years and are now
  closely involved in the development of ocean
  re-analysis and in future consideration of whole
  Earth system re-analysis

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Working Group on Seasonal to Interannual
Prediction (WGSIP)

• Under CLIVAR, WGSIP oversees development of
  improved models, assimilation systems and
  observing system requirements for seasonal
  prediction.
• Ocean observing systems are a critical component
  for initializing S-I climate forecasts.

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Climate and Cryosphere (CliC)

• Systematically addresses physical science
  questions related to sea-ice, glaciers,
  permafrost, snow and other components of the
  frozen water realm.
• These questions are integral to predicting future
  sea-level rise, water resources, changes in the
  ocean thermohaline circulation due to fresh water
  anomalies and the changes in the carbon cycle of
  the ocean

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Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX)

• Studies the hydrological cycle of the atmosphere.
  
• In cooperation with the WCRP Working Group on
  Surface Fluxes, it produces a new generation of
  land- and sea-surface flux data based on
  satellite observations, field studies and
  modeling.
• Better understanding and representation of
  ocean-atmosphere fluxes in coupled models is the
  key for longer-term climate prediction.

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Working Group on Surface Fluxes (WGSF)

• Was established to review the requirements of the
  different WCRP programmes for surface sea fluxes
  including biogeochemical fluxes, develop
  communication and co-ordination between various
  related research initiatives, encourage research
  and facilitate operational activities on surface
  fluxes.

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Surface OceanLower Atmosphere Study (SOLAS)

• A joint project of WCRP with the International
  GeosphereBiosphere Programme (IGBP), the
  Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research, and the
  Commission on Atmospheric Chemistry and Global
  Pollution.
• It is an innovative study aiming at quantitative
  understanding of the key biogeochemical-physical
  interactions and feedbacks between the ocean and
  atmosphere.
• SOLAS, as well as CLIVAR and CliC, contributes to
  the studies of the ocean carbon cycle,
  cooperating with the International Ocean Carbon
  Coordination Project (IOCCP).

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Working Group on Coupled Modelling

• Review and foster the development of coupled
  climate models, including organisation of model
  intercomparisons and utilisation of available
  instrumental records and paleo-climatic data for
  model validation and diagnosis of shortcomings
• Promote co-ordinated experimentation with coupled
  models aiming to understand natural climate
  variability on decadal to centennial time scales
  and its predictability, and to predict the
  response of the climate system to changes in
  natural and anthropogenic forcing
• Promote the development of appropriate data
  assimilation procedures for coupled models and
  consider questions related to initialisation
• Undertake other modelling activities in support
  of CLIVAR and the WCRP
• Liaise as appropriate with IPCC and the Global
  Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling (GAIM)
  element of IGBP

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Monsoon Research and Seasonal Prediction

• One third of the worlds population lives under
  the direct influence of monsoons, which occur due
  to the seasonal coupling of the atmosphere and
  ocean.
• Monsoon anomalies can mean deadly floods or
  insufficient rain for sustaining crops.
• WCRP monsoon initiatives are under way on all
  continents.
• Examples are the CLIVAR/GOOS Indian Ocean Panel,
  the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis
  (AMMA), and several South and North American
  projects.

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Model Appraisal and Development

• The Working Group on Ocean Model Development
  addresses the specific needs and concerns of the
  ocean component of climate change projections.
• More than 40 intercomparison projects have been
  undertaken by WCRP since its inception to develop
  weather prediction, ocean and climate models from
  their infancy

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Global Observations

• WCRP assists the GCOS in formulating requirements
  for climate observations.
• It cosponsors panels reviewing ocean (OOPC) and
  atmospheric observations for climate.
• By developing prototypes of observing techniques,
  data assimilation methods and deploying pilot
  observing systems, WCRP projects were
  instrumental in setting the stage for such
  successful activities as GOOS, Argo, and Global
  Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE).

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International Polar Year 2007-2008 (IPY)

• Input from the WCRP helped to shape the science
  programme of IPY, and climate research dominates
  its agenda.
• WCRP was instrumental in setting up the
  unprecedented two-year snapshot of the polar
  oceans.
• For the first time, many satellites will allow
  coordinated observations of the poles at multiple
  wavelengths, improving our understanding of the
  physics of the polar oceans.

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Earth System Science Partnership (ESSP)

• Formed by WCRP, IGBP, Diversitas and the
  International Human Dimensions Programme on
  Global Environmental Change (IHDP), studies the
  complex Earth system.
• Oceanographic projects of the IGBP include
  Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone
  (LOICZ, cosponsored by IHDP), SOLAS, and
  Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem
  Research (IMBER).
• The two latter projects are also cosponsored by
  the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research
  (SCOR).
• The joint ESSP Global Carbon Project (GCP), in
  its work on the global carbon cycle, cooperates
  with the IOCCP

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Climate Impacts Dependent on Ocean Observations
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Sea-level Rise

• In June 2006, the WCRP organized a major
  international workshop, hosted by the IOC at
  UNESCO, on sea-level rise and variability.
• It achieved consensus on the estimates of the
  current pace of sea-level rise and the
  requirements for observing systems and modeling
  to better constrain the estimates and
  predictions.
• More research is needed to better understand the
  heat uptake and resulting expansion of the
  oceans, the stability of ice sheets, the amount
  of water stored on land, and to improve
  altimetric measurements of the ocean.

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Role of the ocean in seasonal and decadal
forecasting and prediction of droughts and floods

• Long-term weather anomalies, heat waves and
  precipitation patterns are strongly influenced by
  the ocean.
• WCRP-led research on seasonal and decadal
  forecasting has already demonstrated its value
  for assessing water abundances and shortages, and
  hence the danger of droughts and floods, of
  outbreaks of tropical diseases, of forest fires
  and of many other hazards.
• Developing countries are most vulnerable to these
  seasonal climatic anomalies, and therefore stand
  to gain the most from improved predictions. For
  that reason, it is crucial to take full advantage
  of the potential predictability associated with
  the ocean in a range of seasonal and decadal
  prediction applications.

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Abrupt climate change

• In many past climate records, there are clear
  signs of abrupt changes in the regional or global
  climate, warming or cooling of more than 5C in
  only a few decades.
• Some evidence suggests that these events may have
  been caused by large changes in the oceanic
  circulation. There may be thresholds or tipping
  points in the oceanic circulation, so that
  changes to the climate may not be reversible.
• While the IPCC expects that the North Atlantic
  thermohaline circulation will slow and not change
  abruptly in the coming century, uncertainties
  remain, and the effects could be potentially
  catastrophic.
• Further investment in research on non-linear
  climate feedbacks and improvement of global
  ocean, coupled climate and Earth System models is
  necessary.

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Tropical cyclones, storms, surges and other
climate-related hazards

• Floods and tropical cyclones are some of the
  deadliest and costliest natural hazards.
• The Bhola cyclone in 1970 killed 500,000 people
  in Bangladesh, and cyclone Katrina flooded the
  city of New Orleans in 2005.
• Tropical storms draw their energy from the heat
  of the ocean surface, so that ocean models and
  sea-surface flux data are required for predicting
  both the strength and path of an individual
  storm, and also the long-term changes in storm
  number, intensity and location.

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How well is the sustained global ocean observing
system providing the data that is needed for
climate research?

• Truly great strides have been made in the past
  10-15 years e.g., TAO, Argo, satellite altimetry

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What else is needed?

• Greater synergy between in situ and space-based
  ocean observations
• Greater dialogue (i.e., requirements) between
  climate prediction and ocean observing components
• Systems approach to obs/fields
• A routine ocean state estimation activity
  inclusive of observational error estimates
• Sustained data/information delivery plan for
  access and archival of ocean research
  observations
• Infrastructure to ensure climate quality,
  continuity, and reprocessing capabilities

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What is not needed?

• Organizational boundaries that serve as
  impediments to greater synthesis, synergy, and
  requirements definition for ocean observations

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Any other feedback from the perspective of the
other international research programs as users of
the observing system?

• Systems outside the WCRPs scope that benefit
  from improved climate predictions
• Fisheries and Marine Resources
• Coastal Area Management
• Ocean ecosystems change

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