Biosecurity Vulnerability and Strategy evaluation Continued

1
BiosecurityVulnerability and Strategy
evaluationContinued
2
Total Welfare Total Welfare for CB analysis
TSWCSPS
3

• Appraisal Based on Changes in Net Income
• Examining situations where economic agents are
  operating with varying biosecurity attributes
  where all other factors either do not vary or can
  be controlled
• Estimating a relationship between net income and
  the biosecurity attribute
• Calculating the change in net income induced by
  the change in biosecurity attributes
• Utilizing quantitative relationship between
  biosecurity change and net income .
• Assumes prices dont change so demand is
  perfectly elastic

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Appraisal Based on Changes in Net
Income Assumes prices dont change
so demand is perfectly elastic
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Initial Accomplishments (V)Applying Sector
modeling
Forestland
Forest Production
Biofuel/GHG Demand
Cropland
Domestic Demand
Water
Markets
Crop Production
Labor
Export
Processing
Natl. Inputs
Import
Other Resources
Livestock Production
Feed Mixing
Pasture Land
AUM Grazing
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Model Economic Structure
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Primary Commodities Cotton Corn
Soybeans Sorghum SOFT HRWW DURW
HRSW Rice Oats
Barley Potatoes Silage Hay
Alfalfa Sugarcane Sugarbeet Tomatofrsh Toma
toproc Orangefrsh Orangeproc Grpfrtfrsh Grpfrtp
roc SwitchGras HybrPoplar Willow Cornres
SorgRes RiceRes WheatRes OatsRes BarleyRes She
ep CowCalf BeefFeed
Dairy HogFarrow FeedPig PigFinish
OthLvstk StockSCav StockHCav StockSYea
StockHYea VealCalf Turkeys Broilers
Eggs Beefcows BioManure
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• Secondary Commodities
• OrangeJuic GrpfrtJuic SoybeanMeal Soybean
  Oil
• HFCS Beverages Confection
  Baking
• Canning RefSugar GlutenMeal
  GlutenFeed
• DDG CornStarch CornOil
  CornSyrup
• Dextrose FrozenPot DriedPot
  ChipPot
• FedBeef NonFedBeef Pork
  Chicken
• Turkey WoolClean
  FluidMilkwhol FluidMilkLowFat
• SkimMilk Cream EvapCondM
  NonFatDryM
• Butter AmCheese OtCheese
  CottageChe
• IceCream
• Bagasse Lignin
  LigninHardwd LigninSoftwd
• EdTallow NonEdTallow YellowGrease
• CropEthanol CellEthanol Biodiesel
  BiodieselWO
• MktGasBlend SubGasBlend Tbtus

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FASOM Agricultural Regions
Pacific Northwest
West
East
Lake States
Great Plains
Northeast
Pacific Southwest
Rocky Mountains
Corn Belt
South West
Southeast
South Central
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Foreign Regions in FASOM
FASOM has supply and demand curves for corn, 4
types of wheat, soybeans, rice and sorghum across
the above regions and within 11 major US regions
where the region trades the commodity. FASOM
also maintains transportation costs between all
regions. The model determines exports to the
point where prices are in equilibrium considering
transport across all markets.
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Modeled Beef Cattle Flow
First Grazing Program
Steer Calf Stockers
Steer Calves
Second Grazing Program
Feedlot Beef Calves
Steer Yearling Stockers
Feedlot Beef Yearlings
Cull Cows
Heifer Yearling Stockers
Second Grazing Program
Heifer Calves
Heifer Calf Stockers
First Grazing Program
Replacement Breeding Stock
Feedlot Beef Slaughter
Non-Fed Beef Slaughter
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Modeled Dairy Cattle Flow
Feedlot Beef Slaughter
Non-Fed Beef Slaughter
Dairy Cull Cows
Feedlot Beef Yearlings
Steer Yearling Stockers
Raw Fluid Milk
Second Grazing Program
Dairy Steer Calves
Feedlot Beef Calves
Steer Calves
Steer Calf Stockers
First Grazing Program
Bulls
Dairy Heifer Calves
Replacement Breeding Stock
Dairy Steer Calves merge in with the Steer
Calves in the Beef Cattle Flow
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Rift Valley Fever

• An emerging disease and agro-bio-terror threat
• Mosquito-borne viral disease of livestock and
  humans
• Transmission modulated by weather
• Demonstrated ability to travel
• Unknown outside Africa and Arabian Peninsula
• Appearance in US expected to impact agriculture
  sector severely
• Cost of cattle illness and death
• Potential bans on US livestock
• Limited analytic tools to support decision-making
  or operational planning
• French vector model
• USDA/NASA risk assessment method

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Epidemic/Economic Modeling
Biology and Epidemiology
Disease Vectors
Modeling
Infection
Environment
Subject Matter Experts
Estimates
Animal Production
Analysis
Costs Impacts
Economics
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Items changed in FASOM/ASM for Rift Study
For both beef and dairy on a geographic
basis Calving rate Adult beef production
(Deaths and culling) Culled cattle (those who
lost calves) Replacement needs (lost adults and
lost replacements) Milk production (Deaths and
cows that lost calves) In model other indirect
effects Feed usage Calf movement Released feed
usage expanded elsewhere (exports, biofuels)
Regional locus of feeding Production Commodity
prices Dairy and beef products
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High Plains FMD Epidemic/Economic Modeling

• 64 scenarios over various outbreak and disease
  mitigation scenarios
• Early detection vs. late detection
• Ring vs. targeted vaccination
• Adequate vs. inadequate vaccine availability
• Regular vs. enhanced surveillance
• Slaughter options ring slaughter, slaughter of
  infected, and slaughter of dangerous contacts

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AusSpread

• Output
• Duration of epidemic in weeks
• Expected number of infected herds
• Expected number of dangerous contacts
• Expected slaughter
• Expected vaccination

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Integration into FASOM

• Unlike Rift, FMD affects more than cattle
• Adjustment of sheep and swine budgets as well
• Estimate percentage impacts and adjust budgets by
  these percentages
• Spatially lock infected region at the production
  level

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Specific Adjustments

• Cow/Calf
• Dairy
• Milk
• Sheep
• Wool
• Feeder Pig Production
• Hog Farrow to Finish

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Example Dairy

• Dairy budgets are on a per cow basis
• A single dairy cow produces, on average a certain
  amount of milk and a certain amount of dairy
  calves each year as well as cull cows
• To do this she needs a certain amount of inputs
• The conversion of FMD effects into percentage
  allows the modeler to adjust these outputs across
  an entire region
• the model automatically shifts input to
  alternative uses

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Baseline Specification Average Units / Description
base.Silage -6.600 US tons for dairy production
base.Hay -5.060 US tons for dairy production
base.Milk 193.906 100 lbs of raw milk
base.CullDairyCows 1.657 100 lbs of cull dairy calves
base.DairyCalves 2.057 100 lbs of dairy calves
base.biomanure 4.940 tons manure available for bioprocesses
base.SoybeanMeal 0.860 tons soybean meal
base.DairyCon0 108.529 100 lbs grain blend for dairy cattle
base.Pasture 1.750 Acres of pasture land
base.Labor 31.587 Hours
base.othercosts 1272.391 Dollars
base.Profit 1435.851 Dollar difference between revenues and costs
base.Head 1.000 Budget is for one animal
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Code in FASOM

• adjust budgets for slaughter
• livestockbud("TxHiPlains",ANIMAL,livetech,eftech,"
  DairyCalves")
• (livestockbud("TxHiPl
  ains",ANIMAL,livetech,eftech,"DairyCalves")
• and
  avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlai
  ns",herdcomponent))
• (livestockbud("TxHiPl
  ains",ANIMAL,livetech,eftech,"DairyCalves")
• -2.057(avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname
  ,"TxHiPlains","infected")
• avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,
  "TxHiPlains","immune")
• 
  avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlai
  ns","dead")))
• handle milk loss
• livestockbud("TxHiPlains",ANIMAL
  ,livetech,eftech,"milk")
• (livestockbud("TxHiPl
  ains",ANIMAL,livetech,eftech,"milk")
• and
  avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlai
  ns",herdcomponent))
• (livestockbud("TxHiPl
  ains",ANIMAL,livetech,eftech,"milk")
• (1-(avgeffectsonherd(
  "dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlains","latent")
• 
  avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlai
  ns","infected")
• 
  avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlai
  ns","immune")
• 
  avgeffectsonherd("dairy",newscenarioname,"TxHiPlai
  ns,dead)))

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Initial Accomplishments (VI) Estimated Economic Impacts of an FMD outbreak Initial Accomplishments (VI) Estimated Economic Impacts of an FMD outbreak Initial Accomplishments (VI) Estimated Economic Impacts of an FMD outbreak Initial Accomplishments (VI) Estimated Economic Impacts of an FMD outbreak Initial Accomplishments (VI) Estimated Economic Impacts of an FMD outbreak Initial Accomplishments (VI) Estimated Economic Impacts of an FMD outbreak Initial Accomplishments (VI) Estimated Economic Impacts of an FMD outbreak Initial Accomplishments (VI) Estimated Economic Impacts of an FMD outbreak
Welfare for Agriculture Base millions Economic Impacts Economic Impacts Economic Impacts Economic Impacts Economic Impacts Economic Impacts
Welfare for Agriculture Base millions Large Feedlot Large Feedlot Grazing Operation Grazing Operation Backyard Backyard
Welfare for Agriculture Base millions (1) Early Detection (57) Late Detection (15) Early Detection (7) Late Detection (40) Early Detection (16) Late Detection
US Consumers 1,587,043 -218 -354 -64 163 172 -21,106
US Processors 2,681 13 0.0142 13 -15 -44 46
US Producers 54,951 -22,384 -44,849 -1,514 -3,498 -4,213 -7,108,210
US Total 1,644,676 -22,590 -45,203 -1,565 -3,350 -4,085 -7,129,270
Foreign Consumers 188,107 -87 -89 -65 -37 -62 -1,691
Foreign Producers 15,039 21 19 10 -15 -10 1,329
Rest Total 203,146 -66 -70 -54 -53 -72 -362
Total Globally 1,847,823 -22,656 -45,274 -1,620 -3,404 -4,158 -7,129,632
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Costs for Disease Management and Carcass Disposal

• Disease Management
• Vaccination (per head and per farm)
• Testing (per farm)
• Surveillance (per farm/ per visit)
• Carcass Disposal
• Appraisal (per farm)
• Euthanasia (per head)
• Disposal (per farm)
• Cleaning and Disinfecting (per farm)

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Average Costs Across Scenarios

• Disease Management
• 5,912,086.82
• Carcass Disposal
• 39,998,352.68
• Average Across Scenarios 45,910,439.5

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Price Changes from Pre-Event Base

• Drops in
• Cotton, soybeans, wheat, barley, silage , hay and
  sugarcane (less than 1)
• Feeder Pig prices dropped about 15 across
  scenarios
• Feeder calves, stocker calves dropped 2-7
• Not much change in cattle yearlings
• Prices Increased for
• Fresh vegetables and raw milk (less than 1)
• Broilers, pork and fed beef (small 0.1 2)
• Generally no change in lamb
• Certain late detection, backyard index cases were
  exceptions.
• Very large drops and increases (15-40)
• Rarely, dairy calves and steer calves dropped
  almost 100.