1
How to tell President the Facts Statistics and
the Environment. Adrián Fernández,
PhD. National Institute of Ecology, SEMARNAT,
Mexico. August 6, 2003
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• Mexico City population at
  risk
• 20 million inhabitants, including
• 2.2 million children
• 250,000 street sellers
• 250,000 taxi, microbus and bus drivers
• More than 30 million trips-person are made every
  day
• People spend in average 3 hr commuting per day
• 20 of commuters spend 4 or more hours
• CO, PM, VOCs and NOx exposure levels are 2-3
  times
• higher in commuting microenvironments than at
• fixed site monitoring stations

3
Annual average concentration Dowtown (Merced)
monitoring station
Lead (?g/m3)
CO (ppm)
SO2 (ppm)
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Main reasons for air quality improvement
1990-1999

• Lead
• Unleaded gasoline introduced in 1990
• Leaded gasoline completely phased out in 1997
• Average blood lead levels dropped from 20 ug/dl
  in the late 1980s to less than 10 ug/dl in the
  late 1990s
• Sulfur Dioxide
• Industrial heavy fuel oil was phased out in mid
  1990s
• Sulfur content of diesel was reduced to 0.05 in
  1995
• Power plants and other industry shifted to
  natural gas in the early 1990s

5
Annual average concentration Downtown (Merced)
monitoring station
Ozone (ppm)
PM10 (?g/m3)
NO2 (ppm)
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Number of days with ozone above 100, 150, 175,
200, 225, 250 and 300 AQ Index Points
Year gt100 gt150 gt175 gt200 gt225 gt250 gt275 gt300 Number of data
1988 329 228 126 66 18 8 2 0 366
1989 329 129 56 15 4 2 1 0 365
1990 328 220 151 84 47 20 8 3 365
1991 353 296 245 174 114 61 27 8 365
1992 332 266 203 123 75 37 19 11 366
1993 324 241 155 80 42 14 8 1 365
1994 344 262 186 93 36 4 0 0 365
1995 324 262 191 88 36 6 3 0 365
1996 327 235 152 69 27 5 0 0 366
1997 322 214 123 52 14 2 0 0 365
1998 320 215 133 58 16 3 0 0 365
1999 300 188 98 30 10 2 0 0 365
2000 323 184 77 20 5 0 0 0 366
2001 296 143 54 12 2 0 0 0 365
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Ozone annual peaks in Mexico City and the South
Coast
Tlalnepantla (TLA), Xalostoc (XAL), Merced
(MER), Pedregal (PED) y Cerro de la Estrella (CES)
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Tailpipe emissions of CO in g/l FTP-75 cycle
tests
Tests on 36 vehicles of 4 technological strata
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Evolution of vehicle emissions through three
Remote Sensing Campaigns

• Several thousand vehicles were measured in each
  campaign
• Most of monitoring points were the same
• Average age of measured vehicles was 8 years

Campaign CO, vol HC, ppm (C3) NO, ppm
2000 1.3 440 914
1995 2.1 1070 --
1991 4.3 2100 --

• IMP, Study commissioned by CAM
• Bishop, Stedman, Dávalos, De la Garza (1977)
• Beaton, Bishop, Stedman (1992)

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Comparison of USA and Mexican Standards
Tail-pipe emissions in g/km
HC
CO
NOx
US emission limits
1972
2.2
24.2
NR
1975
0.94
15.0
1.94
1978
0.94
15.0
1.25
1981
0.25
2.1
0.62
1994
0.16
2.1
0.25
Mexican emission limits (0 km)
1975
2.5
29.2
NR
1977
2.6
24.2
2.2
1988
2.0
22.2
2.3
1990
1.8
18.0
2.0
1991
0.7
7.0
1.4
1994
0.25
2.1
0.62
2001
0.16
2.1
0.25
These emission levels were met in 1999 through
a voluntarily agreement .
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Rational for taking action with new cars
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• Background for the TIER I negotiations (1)
• In 1997 INE started negotiations with Car
  Manufacturers Association (AMIA) to review
  standards for new vehicles
• Standards in México were similar to those applied
  in the US for 1981-1993 vehicles
• The difference in NOx emissions between a 1997
  Suburban and a Cavalier was 71 (1.2 g/km vs 0.17
  g/km, TIER I standard was 0.25 g/km)
• AMIAs position earliest possible date to meet
  the new standards TIER I (EPA 1994) was 2001

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• Arguments stated by AMIA members in 1997
• Regulatory efforts should concentrate only in old
  cars
• Altitude played an important role
• Gasoline quality was a serious problem (sic)
• Costs for meeting TIER I (EPA 1994) will be too
  high
• Earliest possible date for TIER I 2001

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• Creating value the 2-year exemption of the
  vehicle inspection program
• Current federal standards mandate an inspection
  for all vehicles twice a year, irrespectively of
  age and model. I/M annoys people, and there is a
  risk of failing the test
• INE proposed to CAM a voluntary standard 1999
  2000 vehicles meeting TIER I (instead the
  obligatory target of 2001) would obtain a 2-year
  I/M test waiver
• Key issue the scheme would generate competition,
  because some vehicles were already TIER I while
  others were not. Consumers would have more
  choices
• Result all 1999 vehicles met the voluntary
  standard

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Emission levels of some 1998 1999 models
Hidrocarbons
Carbon monoxide
Nitrogen oxides
g/km
g/km
g/km
0.5
7
1.6
1.4
6
0.4
1.2
5
1
0.3
4
0.8
3
0.2
0.6
2
0.4
0.1
1
0.2
0
0
0
1998
1999
1998
1999
1998
1999
Silverado
Ram 1500
Ram 2500
Jeta
Combi Panel
Sedán
Pickup larga Nissan
Suburban
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In May 2000 INE told the media that the I/M
waiver would be cancelled because authorities had
no news from AMIA The following week AMIA sent a
proposal to INE and went back to the negotiations
table
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(No Transcript)
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Comparison of emissions Prius vs VW Taxi
Emissions VW Beetle Taxi PriusTaxi Difference less emissions
CO ton/year 2.5 0.017 2.48 99.2
CO2 ton/year 13.6 7.0 6.6 48.5
NOx kg/year 144 2.0 142 98.6
THC kg/year 285 4.0 281 98.6
Considering about 200 km driven per day, 60,000
km per year The annual emissions of 1 taxi are
equivalent to Emissions of 147 Prius for CO, 74
for NOx, 71 for THC, and 2 for CO2 Fuel savings
are around US 2000 - 2500 per year.
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Fuel efficiency of passenger vehicles comparable
to the hybrid vehicle Prius (model-year 2002)
Manufacturer Brand Fuel Efficency (City) Km/L
Toyota Prius Corolla 22.1 12.8
Chevrolet Astra 11.7
Dodge Athos Neón SE 14.4 10.9
Ford Focus 12.1
Nissan Sentra SE-R 12.2
Honda Civic 14.1
VW Golf A4 9.7
Source Mexican Automotive Manufacturers
Association CONAE (www.conae.gob.mx) These
values were obtained under laboratory conditions
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José María Velasco Camino a Chalco con Volcanes,
1891.
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Aerial view of Manzanillo Bay (INEGI, 2000)