Climate Change Research at the Regional Level: California

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Climate Change Research at the Regional Level
California

• Guido Franco
• Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program
• California Energy Commission

February 22, 2010
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Outline

• Brief history of regional climate change research
  in California
• Recent Impact Assessments
• Vulnerability/Adaptation Study
• CalAdapt

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Brief history of regional climate change research
in California
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Climate Change Science Informing Policy in CA

• The Energy Commission led the preparation of the
  first CA Assessment in 1988 (AB 4420)
• Studies at the national and international levels
  have been extremely useful
• Federal agencies (USGCRP) are designing a new
  National Assessment

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Climate Change Research at the Energy Commission

• PIER was created in the late 1990s and started
  working in earnest on climate change in 2001
  (80 million/yr)
• First PIER Assessment released in 2003
• PIER created the California Climate Change Center
  in 2003
• First state-sponsored CC research initiative in
  the USA
• Designed to complement national/international
  programs
• Annual budget 6 million
• Areas of research 1) climate monitoring,
  analysis, and modeling 2) GHG inventory methods
  3) Options to reduce net GHG emissions and 4)
  impacts and adaptation studies
• More than 200 scientific PIER reports produced so
  far most of them also published in the
  peer-reviewed literature

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Long-term Research Strategy an example

• Probabilistic climate projections for California
  at adequate temporal and geographical resolutions
  for research and long-term planning

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Probabilistic Climate Projections
Research groups Scripps, UC Santa Cruz, LBNL,
LLNL, Santa Clara U.
Use of statistical and dynamic models
Region B daily and 10 Km x 10 Km
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Basic Science ProjectsAerosols and Regional
Climate (an example)

• 2004 PIER study by Prof. Mark Jacobson (Stanford)
  suggested that aerosols are affecting our
  regional climate and precipitation levels
• Aerosols may be reducing precipitation by about
  12 in the Sierra Nevada
• Study by Prof. Rosenfeld (Hebrew University) et
  al. using research aircraft, satellite
  measurements, and numerical modeling seems to
  confirm this finding.
• A study by Prof. Ramanathan (Scripps) suggests
  that BC from Asia is affecting our climate and
  may be reducing snow albedo in the Sierra Nevada
• CalWater project under way
• Why do we need to focus on this topic?
• Properly model climate
• Potential adaptation option

Source Rosenfeld, D., W. L. Woodley, D. Axisa,
E. Freud, J. G. Hudson, and A. Givati (2008),
Aircraft measurements of the impacts of pollution
aerosols on clouds and precipitation over the
Sierra Nevada, J. Geophys. Res.,
doi10.1029/2007JD009544, in press.
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Development of new tools to properly study
impacts and adaptation options
SWAN Delf University of Technology

• CALVIN model
• Coastal Geomorphic Evolution Model (CGEM) SWAN
  provides input data
• Dynamic ecological model for California
• INFORM demonstration project for five major
  reservoirs in Northern CA
• -Climate Analyses (e.g,. role of irrigation on
  climate in the Central Valley)

CALVIN
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Recent Impact Assessments
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2006 Impacts Study

• Led by PIER
• About 17 scientific papers
• Special Issue in Climatic Change

Our Changing Climate contributed to the passage
of AB32
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2009 Assessment
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General Approach
Climate and Sea Level Rise Scenarios
Physical Impacts
Economic Outcomes
Statewide Agricultural Production Model (SWAP)
Howitt et al. (UC Davis)
Lobell and Field (Stanford)
Sanstad et al., (LBNL, PPIC, LLLN, CEC)
Uncertainty
Demographic and Urban Projections
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2009 Impact Study (Assessment)

• 40 different studies on public health, coastal
  resources, energy, air quality, agriculture,
  forestry, ecosystems, and extreme events.
• Common set of climate and SLR scenarios,
  population and urban projections
• About 100 scientists involved
• Final peer-reviewed papers posted

SF Bay Wastewater Treatment Plants Vulnerable to
Sea Level Rise
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Vulnerability and Adaptation Study
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2009 California Adaptation Strategy

• Unveiled by the Governor on 12/2/2009
• Requires the preparation of a Vulnerability
  Assessment for California
• Creates a high level Advisory Committee that will
  report to the Governor late this year
• Requires updating and improving the CalAdapt
  website

http//climatechange.ca.gov/adaptation/index.html
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Vulnerability Study

• Statewide plus local/regional studies
• Physical and socio-economic vulnerabilities
• Coastal studies
• Coastal flood probabilities for five locations in
  California (Scripps Inst. Of Oceanography)
• Using LiDAR (USGS, NOAA), flood probabilities,
  and wave run-up to estimate impacts in Central CA
  (UC Berkeley)
• Local adaptation studies for Santa Cruz and
  Ventura (UC Santa Cruz)
• Barriers to adaptation (possible)

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CalAdapt
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Motivation

• Huge amount of scientific information being
  produced by the PIER Center and others
• There is a need to efficiently transfer
  information/data to local decision makers
• 2009 California Adaptation Strategy

http//climatechange.ca.gov/visualization/index.ht
ml
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Prototype
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CalAdapt

• PIER and Google.org are collaborating
• The final version will have three levels of
  information
• Level 1 Educational material for the general
  public
• Level 2 Access of data (moderate sizes) and
  reports
• Level 3 Availability of huge data sets (mostly
  for researchers and technical staff) or links
• Results of the Vulnerability Study will be
  displayed in CalAdapt

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Climatic Projections
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Sea Level Rise Impacts
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Thanks!Questions?