Leapfrogging energy systems of developing countries

1
Leapfrogging energy systems of developing
countries wishful thinking or a
reasonableoption?
Sverker Molander Environmental Systems
Analysis Chalmers University of Technology
2
Leapfrogging energy systems of developing
countries wishful thinking or a
reasonableoption?
Sverker Molander Environmental Systems
Analysis Chalmers University of Technology
3
What is there?
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Large and quickly growing rural
populationsNon-commercial energy systems
Typically few BIG hydropower plantsVery low
electrification rates in rural regionsVery
slow grid extension, often not a viable solution
for rural electrification
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Several developing countries have launched
programs for introduction of RET Many failures
often due to socio-technical mismatches (Murphy
2001 Brent Kruger 2009)
Needs production, growth, education, health
services Unexploited fossil resources
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Renewable energy sources (RES) are there!Solar,
wind, geothermal, hydro biomass
Wind speed
Tidal currents
Solar energy
Tidal range
Illustrated data compiled from published local
measurements and remote sensing data (NASA Eosweb)
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What should be there?
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Productive commercial (modern) energy systems -
electrification! (e.g. Dalal-Clayton et al.
2003)) Development of small solitary grids
(Molander et al. 2008) Combinations of several
renewable energy sources (RES)/ technologies
(increased reliability in small grids) (Ehnberg
2007) Self-sufficiency and increasing
returns-development growth!
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How to get there?
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Macro
Meso
Micro
?
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Micro
Meso
Macro
!
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Global climate change drives interest and efforts
for renewable energyInternational instruments
may economically support RET in developing
countries (Duic et al. 2003 Duokas et al.
2009)For technology absorption, an energy
system has to meet local demands and
preconditions(Murphy 2001 Mulder Tembe 2008)
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Technical and economical prerequisites
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Social/institutional prerequisites
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SoThere are significant efforts towards
expansion of renewable energy sources even among
the most poor countriesWhere resources are
abundant, appropriate renewable energy
technologies may find niche marketsSpecific
technical adaption may be important to meet the
preconditions of developing country
marketsInstitutional arrangements are key
socio-technical systems!
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Leapfrogging energy systems-a reasonable
optionBut
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Investigating prerequisites and
consequencesSocio-technical-ecological
evaluations of potential renewable energy
systemsSTEEP-RESSverker.Molander_at_chalmers.seH
elene Ahlborg, Erik Ahlgren, Jimmy Ehnberg, Linus
Hammar, Martin Gullström, Sverker Jagers