Title: FNCE 4070 Financial Markets and Institutions
1FNCE 4070Financial Markets andInstitutions
- Lecture 7
- Central Banking and the Conduct of Monetary
Policy -
2What are These Central Banks and Who are These
Central Bankers?
3Why Study Central Banking?
- Answer Central bank actions have significant
impacts on financial markets and specifically on - (1) interest rates (the cost of borrowing and the
return on investing). - (2) financial asset prices (stocks, bonds,
foreign exchange) - Thus we need to know something about central
banks - How do central banks operate in financial
markets? - How can we monitor the potential for changes in
central bank actions? - Understanding these issues will add to our
understanding of (1) and (2) above.
4Who Runs a Countrys Central Bank?
- Central Banks may be either
- (1) government owned and government controlled
or - (2) run under regulations that are specifically
created to prevent extensive government
interference. - In most countries -- especially in the developing
world -- the central bank is owned and controlled
by the national government and, thus, has the
potential for a minimal degree of autonomy from
that government. - This situation, unfortunately, allows for the
possibility of government interference in
monetary policy. - As one example, the Central Bank of China, the
People's Bank of China (PBOC) enjoys little
operational independence. - Unlike Western central banks, the PBOC does not
have the final word on adjusting interest rates
or the value of the yuan. The basic course of
monetary and currency policy is set by the State
Council, China's cabinet, or by the Communist
Party's ruling Politburo.
5Central Banks in Major Countries
- In the major countries of the world, however,
central banks generally operate independent of
their respective governments. Some of these
banks are owned by their governments while others
are not. - The Bank of England was nationalized in 1946
however in 1997 it became an independent public
organization, still wholly owned by the
Government, but with independence in setting
monetary policy to achieve government mandated
inflation target. - The Federal Reserve, on the other hand, is
owned by the 12 district banks and it is
considered an independent central bank because - Its decisions do not have to be ratified by the
President or anyone else in the executive or
legislative branch of government, - It does not receive funding appropriated by
Congress, and - The terms of the members of the Board of
Governors span multiple presidential and
congressional terms.
6Reducing Government Control of Central Banks
- Removing government control is designed to
prevent political interference in the monetary
policy process. - In reality, however, the degree of true
independence, or separation from government
involvement, varies even among these countries. - Some governments (e.g., the U.K., Australia, and
Canada) are actively involved in setting specific
inflation targets for their central banks. - Others such as the ECBs operate within an
inflation target as implied in its original
charter. - The Federal Reserve is probably an example of a
central bank with the greatest separation from
government involvement.
7Major Central Banks Independence
- Central Bank (Date Founded) Date of Independence
- Federal Reserve (1913) 1913
- Bank of England (1694) 1997
- Bank of Japan (1882) 1998
- European Central Bank (1999) 1999
- Recognized date of separation from government
influence. - Granted in the 1913 Federal Reserve Act.
- Following the election of the new Labor
Government in May 1997. - Under revisions to the Bank of Japan Law
- As noted in the Maastricht Treaty (1993) and
specified in the Banks charter.
8Should Central Banks be Independent?
- Over the years, there has been growing debate as
to the most efficient and effective arrangement
for central banks. - Case for Central Bank Independence
- Independent Central Banks are more likely to have
longer run objectives while politicians may have
shorter term objectives. - Independence minimizes a political (i.e.,
election induced) business cycle. - A 2005 study suggested that political business
cycles have been concentrated in the Latin
America region. - Empirical work suggests that countries with the
most independent central banks do the best job of
controlling inflation and achieving economic
growth (see slides which review this evidence). - Case against Central Bank Independence
- Central Bank should be accountable (at least in
terms of their goals) to their general
populations (and perhaps less so in terms of
their policies to achieve goals). - Hinders coordination of monetary and fiscal
policy.
9How Independent are Central Banks Today?
- Some central banks which we characterized as
independent have their inflation goals set by
their national governments, but are given freedom
with regard to the use of policy instruments to
achieve those goals. - Bank of England The Banks monetary policy
objective is to deliver price stability. Price
stability is defined by the Governments
inflation target of 2. The 1998 Bank of England
Act made the Bank independent to set interest
rates. (Bank web-site). - Other examples Brazil, China, Mexico
10Variations on Inflation Target Process
- Switzerland the central bank has authority to
set its inflation target (currently at no more
than 2 a year for the medium to long term). - ECB governing council sets its own inflation
target (currently 2) consistent with the 1992
Maastricht Treatys stated goal of price
stability. - Canada and New Zealands inflation targets are
determined jointly by their respective
governments and their central banks. - Both the U.S. and Japan, where neither the Fed
nor the BOJ has specific mandated government
(inflation) goals.
11Central Bank Independence and Inflation, 1955-1988
12Central Bank Independence and Inflation, 1973-1988
13Central Bank Independence and Economic Growth,
1973-1988
14Visualizing the Path of Central Bank Monetary
Policy
- Monetary Policy Tools (Policy Instruments)
- (1) Open market operations (buying and selling
debt) - (2) Discount window (borrowing) facilities
- (3) Reserve requirement adjustments
- (4) Intervention in foreign exchange markets
- Operational Targets (Targets of Policy Actions)
- Monetary aggregates (money supply measures)
- Financial market variables (short interest rates,
exchange rates) - Macroeconomic Target (Ultimate Goals of Policy)
- Inflation
- Economic growth
- Employment
- External trade
15Question What is the Most Commonly Used of
Policy for the Fed?
- Monetary Policy Tools (Policy Instruments)?
- (1) Open market operations
- (2) Discount window (borrowing) facilities
- (3) Reserve requirement adjustments
- (4) Intervention in foreign exchange markets
- Operational Targets (Targets of Policy Actions)
- Monetary aggregates (money supply measures)
- Financial market variables (short interest rates,
exchange rates) - Macroeconomic Target (Ultimate Goals of Policy)
- Inflation
- Economic growth
- Employment
- External trade
16Historical Use of Fed Policy Instruments
- 1913 Act Major policy instrument was the
discount facility and the discount rate
(rediscounting of commercial paper). - Federal Reserve Act of 1913 actually had no
provision for changes in reserve requirements and
open market operations as a policy tool were not
yet discovered. - When discount loans (which were a source of
income for the Fed) fell in 1920, the fed started
to purchase seasoned securities for income and as
they did so they quickly realized that these
open market operations were having a impact on
bank reserves. - Thus, as a result, open market operations evolved
into the major Fed instrument from this point on.
17Open Market Operations
- (1) Open market operations Purchases and sales
of U.S. Treasury and federal agency as specified
by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). - A short term objective is specified in terms of a
desired interest rate (federal funds rate) and is
conveyed to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York
for implementation. - Since 1995 the Fed has specified an explicit
target level for the federal funds rate. - For specific targets since 1995, see
http//www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm - The FOMC has regular meeting scheduled
approximately every 6 weeks (8 times a year),
although it can call an emergency meeting
anytime. - For scheduled meeting and minutes of meetings
see - http//www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc
calendars.htm
18Discount Facility
- (2) The discount rate The interest rate charged
to commercial banks and other depository
institutions on loans they receive from their
regional Federal Reserve Bank. - Federal Reserve Banks offer three discount window
programs to depository institutions - (1) primary credit, i.e., overnight, (current
rate 0.75) - (2) secondary credit (to meet severe short term
financial difficulties (current rate 1.25), and - (3) seasonal credit, i.e., to smaller
institutions in agricultural or seasonal resort
areas (current rate 0.20) - All discount window loans must be fully secured
(usually with Treasury securities). - The term discount rate is normally applied to
the rate on primary credit loans. - For current and historical discount rates see
http//www.frbdiscountwindow.org/index.cfm
19Relationship of Discount Rate to Fed Funds Rate
- Historically, the discount rate was set below the
federal funds rate. - To discourage banks from borrowing at the
discount window and lending it out at a profit in
the fed funds market, the Fed required a bank to
prove it that a discount loan was its last option
for securing needed funds. - In 2003, however, the Fed introduced a new policy
by which the discount rate is now set above the
fed funds rate. - Since 2003, the discount rate has averaged 85
basis points above the effective fed funds rate. - See exhibits on next slide.
20Fed Funds Rate and Discount Rate
21Reserve Requirements
- (3) Reserve requirements The amount of funds
(reserves) that a depository institution must
hold in reserve against its specified deposit
liabilities. - Reserves can be held the form of vault cash or
deposits with Federal Reserve Banks. - Reserves requirements are set against transaction
accounts (e.g., demand deposits, NOW accounts,
etc), time deposits, and eurocurrency deposits. - Under the Monetary Control Act of 1980, the Fed
can vary reserve requirement up to 14 on
transaction accounts and up to 9 on all other
deposits. - This act also applies these reserve requirements
to all commercial banks, regardless of Fed
membership. (See next slide) - For historical and current reserve requirements
see - http//www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/rese
rvereq.htm
22Monetary Control Act (MCA) of 1980
- Before the passage of the MCA in 1980, only
commercial banks that were members of the Federal
Reserve System had to meet the Fed's reserve
requirements. - State-chartered commercial banks that were not
Federal Reserve members had to meet their
respective state's reserve requirements, which
typically were lower. - As a result, many commercial banks were dropping
their Federal Reserve membership in favor of
state charters. - And, as banks did so, Federal Reserve member bank
transaction deposits fell from nearly 85 of
total U.S. transaction deposits in the late 1950s
to 65 by the late 1970s. - The MCA resolved this problem by authorizing the
Fed to set reserve requirements for all
depository institutions, regardless of Fed
membership status.
23Limited Use of Reserve Requirements as a Monetary
Policy Tool
- Since 1980, there have been only a handful of
policy-related reserve requirement changes in the
United States. As two examples - In December 1990, the Fed cut the requirement on
time deposits and on Eurocurrency deposits from
3 to 0. - The Fed suggested that the cut would reduce
banks' costs, "providing added incentive to lend
to creditworthy borrowers. - In April 1992, the Fed cut the requirement on
transaction deposits from 12 to 10. - The Fed suggested that this cut would put banks
"in a better position to extend credit."
24Question What Operational Target Does the Fed
Use?
- Monetary Policy Tools (Policy Instruments)
- Open market operations
- Operational Targets (Targets of Policy Actions)?
- Monetary aggregates (money supply measures)
- Financial market variables (short interest rates,
exchange rates) - Macroeconomic Target (Ultimate Goals of Policy)
- Inflation
- Economic growth
- Employment
- External trade
25Historical Use of Operational Targets by the
Federal Reserve
- Interest Rate Targets
- In the years immediately after WW II, the Federal
Reserve agreed to peg interest rates at very
low levels (3/8 on Treasury bills and 2 ½ on
Treasury bonds). - Fed agreed to this interest rate target as a way
of holding down the Treasurys war financing
costs (see next slide) - In 1951, an agreement was reached between the
Treasury and the Fed agreed that the Fed would no
longer peg Treasury interest rates (agreement
called the The Accord) . - In the 1950 and 1960s, the Federal Reserve
decided to target money market conditions, and
specifically short term interest rates.
26Short Term Interest Rates After WWII
27Historical Use of Operational Targets by the
Federal Reserve
- Recall that in the 1970s, the U.S (as well as
other industrial countries) experienced very high
inflation rates. - During this time, under increasing criticism from
monetarists that central banks were unable
control inflationary pressures, the shift was
from interest rate targets to targeting of
monetary aggregates, specifically various money
supply measures (M1, M2, etc). - Milton Friedman (1968) Inflation is always and
everywhere a monetary phenomenon. - By the end of the 1970s, most major central banks
had dropped interest rate targets and adopted
some form of monetary aggregate targeting - Bank of England in 1973
- Bundesbank (Germany) in 1975
- Bank of Japan in 1978
- Federal Reserve October 6, 1979.
28Short History of Money Supply Targeting
- The 1978 Humphrey-Hawkins Act mandated that the
Fed set annual targets for money supply and that
the Fed Chairman report to Congress twice each
year regarding these targets. - However, a monetary target was a appropriate only
so long as its velocity (the rate of turnover of
a dollar of the money supply) was stable over the
long term. - Unfortunately, the long term stability of money
velocity, which was at the core of monetarism,
disappeared beginning in the late 1980s. - In addition, there was concern that in targeting
the money supply, central banks were losing
control over interest rates and these rates were
becoming more volatile.
29Velocity of Money
30Volatility of Interest Rates in the 1980s
31Return to Interest Rate Targets
- By the 1980s, central bank concern about the
changing velocity of money combined with the wide
swings in interest rates which had been
occurring, resulted in the de-emphasis this
monetary aggregate approach. - Thus by the 1990s, central banks had shifted
their operational target focus back to short term
interest rates. - In July 1993, the Fed announced it was no longer
using any monetary targets. - In the 1990s, most major central banks had
abandoned monetary targets in favor of some short
term interest rate as their operational target.
Todays rates are - Fed Reserve The fed funds rate (rate for
reserves in the interbank market). - Bank of England Official bank rate
- European Central Bank Main refinancing rate
- Bank of Japan Uncollateralized overnight call
rate
32Question What is Feds Most Commonly Used
Macroeconomic Target?
- Monetary Policy Tool
- Open market operations (Buying and selling
Treasury securities) - Operational Target
- Financial market variable (short term interest
rates) - Macroeconomic Target?
- Inflation target
- Economic growth target
- Unemployment rate target
- Exchange rates target
33Early U.S. Central Bank History
- Except for two failed attempts (1791 and 1816),
the U.S. operated without an effective central
bank up until 1913. - Prior to 1913, there were frequent economic
recessions and financial crises in the U.S. with
the Bank Panic of 1907 finally convincing the
government that a central bank was necessary. - On December 23, 1913, Congress passed and
President Woodrow Wilson signed into law The
Federal Reserve Act, establishing a central bank
for the United States. - The Act was also called the Glass-Owen Act.
- The 1913 Act was to provide for establishment of
Federal reserve banks, to furnish an elastic
currency, to afford means of rediscounting
commercial paper, to establish a more effective
supervision of banking in the United States, and
for other purposes. - Note There were no explicit macro economic goals
in the 1913 Act and no mention of open market
operations.
34U.S. Economic Performance During the Early Fed
Years
35Changing Goals of the Federal Reserve
- In response to the unemployment crisis of the
Great Depression, the U.S. Congress, in February
1946, passed the Full Employment Act - The Congress hereby declares that it is the
continuing policy and responsibility of the
Federal Government to promote maximum
employment, production and purchasing power. - These new goals also become the goals of the
central bank.
36The 1970s -80s A New Problem
- Recall, in the 1970s, global inflation became
the major economic issue for industrial
countries. - Two distinct inflation peaks 1973/74 and
1980/81. - As a result, many central banks turned their
attention to inflation and some to the use of
inflation targets as a macro economic goal. - Begins with New Zealand adopting an inflation
target of 0 to 2 in March 1980.
- Inflation in Industrial Countries, per year
37Adoption of Explicit Inflation Targets
- Early Adopters (with original target)
- New Zealand March 1990 (set at 0 to 2)
- Canada February 1991 (set at 1 to 3)
- United Kingdom October 1992 (set at 2)
- Australia January 1993 (set a 2 to 3)
- Sweden January 1993 (set at 2)
- Finland February 1993 (set at 2)
- Spain January 1995 (set at 3.5 to 4)
- Later Adopters (with original target)
- Euro-zone Jan 1999 (set below, but close to, 2)
- Poland January 1999 (8 to 8.5)
- Brazil June 1999 (set at 8)
- South Africa 2002 (set a 3 to 6)
38Initial Response of the U.S. to High Inflation
- In 1977, additional mandates for the Federal
Reserve were introduced with Congressional
amendments to the Federal Reserve Act - The 1977 amendments required the Board of
Governors and the FOMC to "maintain the growth of
monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with
the economy's long-run potential to increase
production, so as to promote effectively the
goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and
moderate long-term interest rates. - However, no explicit inflation targets were
introduced at that time.
39History of Macroeconomic Targets
- From a practical standpoint there are any number
of macroeconomic variable a central bank might
target, including - A unemployment rate (has been proposed for South
Africa) - A real GDP growth rate
- An exchange rate (Bretton Woods, 1944 1971
U.K. October 1990 September 1992 Hong Kong
and Singapore today) - An inflation target
- The use of exchange rate targets was popular
among some central banks in the late 1980s/early
1990s. - Bank of England adopted an exchange rate target
in 1990. - As noted earlier, in March 1990, the Central Bank
of New Zealand was the first to adopt an
inflation target. - Over the decade of the 1990s, a growing number of
countries adopted inflation targets - From 4 countries in 1990 to 54 by 1998.
- And in 2009 the U.S. followed with an announced
implied inflation target of 2
40Case Study Inflation Targeting in New Zealand
- Note GST refers to Goods and Services Tax
- New Zealand had informally targeted inflation
at 0 to 2 beginning in 1988 although in 1990 it
was formally introduced into law with the New
Zealand Act of 1989.
41Inflation Targeting Impact on Interest Rates New
Zealand
42Final Issue Central Bank Transparency
- Transparency means that a central bank provides
the general public and financial markets with
relevant information in an open, clear and timely
manner. - Transparency is potentially important because it
reduces uncertainty about a central banks
intention. - Helps the financial market establish anchors
critical to their expectations. - Today, most central banks consider transparency
as crucial to their success. - Monetary policy is assumed to be more effective
when the central bank provides the public with
guidance on its objectives, activities and
outlook.
43Central Bank Transparency
- Many Central Bank web sites are now in English
- Visit http//www.bis.org/cbanks.htm
- Many central bankers regularly talk to the
public. - Central Bank decisions and actions are published
in a timely manner. - Federal Reserve Bank Has eight scheduled
meetings per year. A press statement is released
immediately following each meeting. - http//www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/calendars
- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee meets
the first Thursday of every month. The decisions
on interest rates are announced at 12 noon
immediately following the meeting. - http//www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/deci
sions/decisions07.htm - Governing Council of the ECB meets on the first
Thursday of each month with the decision on the
key ECB interest rates is issued at 145 p.m.
C.E.T. At 230 p.m. C.E.T. , the President and
the Vice-President of the ECB hold a press
conference to discuss the decision. - http//www.ecb.int/press/govcdec/mopo/2007/html/in
dex.en.html - Bank of Japan announce their interest rate
decisions immediately following their meeting. - http//www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/index.htm/
44ECB and Bank of England Press Releases
- ECB http//www.ecb.int/press/html/index.en.html
- ECB Follow-up (With Q and A) http//www.ecb.int/pr
ess/pressconf/2008/html/index.en.html - Bank of England http//www.bankofengland.co.uk/pu
blications/news/2008/index.htm
45Measures of Central Bank Transparency
Fed ECB UK Japan Canada NZ AU
Goal of Monetary Policy and Accountability
Explicit Inflation Target Specified No Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes
Inflation Target/Range 2 lt2 2 ---- 1-3 1-3 2-3
Reports to Legislature (Accountability) Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Information To Financial Markets
Reports on Monetary Policy S M Q M Q Q Q
Forecasts Released S S Q S Q Q Q
Operational Procedures
Policy Meetings Per Year 8 12 12 14 8 8 11
Decisions Announced Immediately After Policy Meetings Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Press Releases Immediately After Policy Meetings Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Press Conferences (After Meetings) Yes Yes Yes Yes No Yes No
Voting Results Published Yes No Yes Yes No No Yes
Full Minutes of Policy Meetings Published Yes No Yes Yes No No Yes
Weeks After Minutes Published 3 2 5 2
Note Implied Target for U.S. Fed will hold 4 a year, beginning in April 2011. M Monthly Q Quarterly S Semi-annual.
46Links to Worlds Major Central Banks
- United States
- http//www.federalreserve.gov/
- European Union
- http//www.ecb.int/
-
- Bank of England
- http//www.bankofengland.co.uk/
- Bank of Japan
- http//www.boj.or.jp/en/index.htm
47Other Useful Web Sites
- Links to all the worlds Central Banks (note 172
banks as of March 27, 2011) - http//www.bis.org/cbanks.htm
- Federal Reserve statistical data
- http//www.federalreserve.gov/releases/
- Economic time series, U.S. and some foreign (also
allowing for graphing of data) - http//www.economagic.com/
48Appendix 1 The Channel of Fed Policy
- The following is from the Federal Reserve web
site and articulates in the Feds words the
channel of monetary policy in the U.S. today
49U.S. Monetary Policy Channel
- According to the Federal Reserve
- Using the three policy instruments, the Federal
Reserve influences the demand for, and supply of,
balances that depository institutions hold at
Federal Reserve Banks and in this way alters the
federal funds rate. - Changes in the federal funds rate trigger a chain
of events that affect other short-term interest
rates, foreign exchange rates, long-term interest
rates, the amount of money and credit, and,
ultimately, a range of economic variables,
including employment, output, and prices of goods
and services. - http//www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.
htm
50Appendix 2 The Organizational Structure of the
Federal Reserve
51Formal Structure of the Federal Reserve System
- The system (i.e., formal structure) as it exists
now includes - Twelve Federal Reserve Banks
- Member Banks, i.e., members of the Federal
Reserve (around 3,600, out of about 7,500 banks) - Seven individuals who are members of the Board of
Governors (BOG) of the Federal Reserve System
(including a Chairman). - Twelve individual members of the Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC). - Federal Advisory Council (12 bankers)
- Note The system, however, is dominated by the
Board of Governors
52Formal Structure of the Fed
53The Twelve Federal Reserve Districts
54The Federal Open Market Committee
- Undoubtedly the most closely watch group within
the Federal Reserve is the Federal Open Market
Committee. - There are 12 members on the FOMC
- All seven members of the Board of Governors plus
the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New
York and four other presidents among the
remaining 11 Federal Reserve District Banks (see
Appendix 1 for the Fed structure). - The chairman of the Board of Governors is the
chair of the FOMC. - The FOMC has scheduled meetings 8 times a year
(about every 6 weeks) although emergency
meetings can be called anytime, and at these
meetings - The FOMC makes decisions regarding the level of
the federal funds rate.
55Appendix 3 History of Other Major Central Banks
- The Bank of England, the Bank of Japan and the
European Central Bank are discussed in the slides
that follow
56Bank of England
- Founded in 1694 initially to manage the U.K.
Governments accounts and to borrow on behalf of
the Government (usually to finance wars with
France). - Controlled by the Government until granted
interest rate autonomy in 1997 by the Labor
Party. - Since May 1997 the Banks 9 member Monetary
Policy Committee has had statutory responsibility
for setting interest rates to meet the
Government's stated inflation target. - Each year the Chancellor of the Exchequer sets an
inflation target for the country (currently 2).
- The MPC has to judge what interest rate is
necessary to meet that inflation target. - The Bank implements its interest rate decisions
by setting the interest rate at which the Bank
lends to commercial banks and other financial
institutions in the U.K.
57European Central Bank (ECB)
- Founded in January 1999 by a treaty between the
European Central Bank (ECB) and the European
System of Central Banks (ESCB). - Stated goal is to maintain price stability in the
euro area (at inflation rates of below, but close
to, 2 over the medium term). - The 18 member Governing Council is the main
decision making body of the ECB. - Consist of 6 Executive Board Members (chosen by
the 12 euro member governments) plus the 12
governors of all the national central banks from
the 12 euro area countries - The Governing Council meets its inflation target
by setting the interest rate at which banks
borrow from the central bank (similar to U.S.
federal funds rate). - The key ECB rate is the interest rate on
refinancing operations which provide the bulk
of liquidity to the banking system.
58Bank of Japan (Nippon Ginko)
- Founded in 1882.
- The Bank of Japan Law (1998) gave the Bank of
Japan autonomy for monetary policy. - Also stated that monetary control shall pursuit
price stability. - The 7 member Policy Board targets an overnight
interest rate for uncollateralized call money
(similar to U.S. federal funds). - The Bank controls the call money rate on a daily
basis through money market operations (similar to
open market operations). - Also uses an official discount rate at which it
will make loans to banks. - At the present time, the Bank of Japan does not
have a specified inflation target.