Greg Brinkman

1
Western Wind and Solar Integration Study
February TRC meeting Transmission build test
case
Greg Brinkman Debbie Lew
National Renewable Energy LaboratoryGolden,
Colorado USA
2
Transmission expansion

• Use high-wind scenario as test case
• Assume both existing and new transmission is used
  optimally
• Run case in PLEXOS for full year
• Build 500 MW along interfaces with high shadow
  price
• Cutoff is 10/MW per hour
• 1600/MW-mi 0.11/yr (FCR) 250 miles 1/8760
  yr/hr 5/MW per hour
• Continue iterating until no more lines built
• Initial run plus 9 iterations

3
Transmission buildout statistics
it0 it1 it2 it3 it4 it5 it6 it7 it8 it9
MW interface capacity built 7500 6000 4000 3000 1500 1500 1000 1000 500
Curtailment (TWh) 30.7 19.3 13.2 8.6 6.4 4.9 4.1 4.0 3.6 3.5
Curtailment (fraction of wind solar) 0.119 0.075 0.051 0.033 0.025 0.019 0.016 0.016 0.014 0.014
/MWh reduction in curtailment (marginal) 29 43 38 61 44 84 403 104 222
/MWh reduction in curtailment (average) 29 34 35 37 38 39 40 41 42
Production cost (billion) 15.2 13.9 13.3 12.9 12.6 12.5 12.3 12.3 12.2 12.1
? production cost (billion) -1.33 -0.61 -0.38 -0.27 -0.16 - 0.13 -0.07 -0.08 -0.04
Build cost/yr (billion) - rule of thumb 0.33 0.26 0.18 0.13 0.07 0.07 0.04 0.04 0.02
Marginal value per 4.0 2.3 2.1 2.1 2.5 1.9 1.6 1.8 1.7
Average value per 4.0 3.3 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7
4
Iteration 0 (original WECC LRS interface
estimates) MW transfer capacity between
transmission zones
5
Iteration 1 MW transfer capacity increase from
iteration 0 (WECC LRS interface limits)
6
Iteration 2 MW transfer capacity increase from
iteration 0 (WECC LRS interface limits)
7
Iteration 3 MW transfer capacity increase from
iteration 0 (WECC LRS interface limits)
8
Iteration 4 MW transfer capacity increase from
iteration 0 (WECC LRS interface limits)
9
Iteration 5 MW transfer capacity increase from
iteration 0 (WECC LRS interface limits)
10
Iteration 6 MW transfer capacity increase from
iteration 0 (WECC LRS interface limits)
11
Iteration 7 MW transfer capacity increase from
iteration 0 (WECC LRS interface limits)
12
Iteration 8 MW transfer capacity increase from
iteration 0 (WECC LRS interface limits)
13
Iteration 9 MW transfer capacity increase from
iteration 0 (WECC LRS interface limits)
14
Transmission expansion

• Decided at December TRC meeting to produce
  statistics for a high, low, and medium
  transmission buildout
• Metric for low, medium, high buildouts?
• Value, shadow price, curtailment, etc.
• Levers to turn
• Shadow price threshold
• Number of iterations
• Art

15
Buildout by shadow price threshold
Shadow price threshold (/MWh)----gt 5 10 15 20
Alberta_to_British Columbia 5000 3500 2500 1500
Alberta_to_Montana 0 0 0 0
Arizona_to_California_South 1000 1000 1000 1000
Arizona_to_Colorado 5000 1500 0 0
Arizona_to_IID 500 500 500 500
Arizona_to_LDWP 5000 500 500 500
Arizona_to_Nevada_South 0 0 0 0
Arizona_to_New Mexico 0 0 0 0
Arizona_to_San Diego 500 500 500 500
Arizona_to_Utah 500 500 500 500
British Columbia_to_Northwest 4000 2000 0 0
California_North_to_California_South 0 0 0 0
California_North_to_Nevada_North 5000 1500 1500 1000
California_North_to_Northwest 500 0 0 0
California_North_to_San Francisco 1500 1500 1000 500
California_North_to_SMUD 0 0 0 0
California_South_to_IID 1500 500 0 0
California_South_to_LDWP 0 0 0 0
California_South_to_Nevada_North 0 0 0 0
California_South_to_Nevada_South 0 0 0 0
California_South_to_San Diego 0 0 0 0
Colorado_to_Montana 1000 0 0 0
Colorado_to_New Mexico 1000 0 0 0
Colorado_to_Utah 0 0 0 0
Colorado_to_Wyoming 1000 0 0 0
Idaho_to_Montana 0 0 0 0
Idaho_to_Nevada_North 3000 500 500 500
Idaho_to_Northwest 0 0 0 0
Idaho_to_Utah 5000 1000 0 0
Idaho_to_Wyoming 0 0 0 0
IID_to_San Diego 500 500 500 500
LDWP_to_Nevada_North 0 0 0 0
LDWP_to_Nevada_South 0 0 0 0
LDWP_to_Northwest 500 500 0 0
LDWP_to_Utah 0 0 0 0
Mexico (CFE)_to_New Mexico 4500 500 500 500
Mexico (CFE)_to_San Diego 4500 1500 1500 1500
Montana_to_Northwest 5000 2500 1500 1000
Montana_to_Wyoming 0 0 0 0
Nevada_North_to_Nevada_South 500 500 500 500
Nevada_North_to_Northwest 1000 1000 1000 500
Nevada_North_to_Utah 0 0 0 0
Nevada_South_to_Utah 500 500 500 500
Utah_to_Wyoming 5000 3500 2500 1500
- 10/MW per hour was the shadow price
threshold used for this analysis
16
Questions?

• Greg Brinkman
• 303-384-7390
• gregory.brinkman_at_nrel.gov
• Debbie Lew
• 303-384-7037
• debra.lew_at_nrel.gov

17
Extra slides for addressing potential questions
18
Renewable generation profiles

• Solar
• Remake all solar generation data, down to 1-min
  resolution
• PV is 60 of solar, CSP is 40
• Distribution to regions based on the ReEDS
  results
• Distribution within regions based on the
  following rules
• Rooftop PV is 40 of PV where possible
• Capacity distributed by population (same capacity
  per person)
• Maximum capacity per grid cell of 1 kW/person
• All scenarios use same sites with different
  capacity per grid cell
• Distributed utility PV is 20 of PV
• Sited near population areas
• Scenarios use subset of sites
• Remote-site utility PV is 40 of PV
• Sited based on capacity factor
• Scenarios use subset of sites

19
Renewable generation profiles

• Wind
• Sited by capacity factor within ReEDS region
• Close capacity factor sites were sometimes
  substituted so not all wind was in same location
• Use WWSIS phase 1 data set
• Statistically downsampled data available for
  subhourly analysis
• Load
• 2006 1-min data available from WECC VGS
• 2004 or 2005?

20
Sample map of solar sites
21
High wind (25 wind, 4.8 PV, 3.2 CSP)
22
Intermediate (16.5 wind, 9.9 PV, 6.6 CSP)
23
High solar (8 wind, 15 PV, 10 CSP)
24
Retirement Scenarios

• All scenarios (including base case TEPPC 2020)
• Probably use WECC TEPPC DWG projections
• May need to add capacity if additional units are
  retired from TEPPC 2020 case
• Gas CC added in locations where capacity is
  retired
• Sensitivity analysis on additional retirements
  for renewable scenarios
• Amount retired will be based on capacity value of
  renewables

25
Transmission zones

• Run zonally initially. Nodal runs at a later date
  for deeper dives.
• Propose to use these 20 TEPPC zones. Aiming at
  more rather than less zones to better approximate
  actual current operations.
• Commit and dispatch within each zone with no
  hurdle rates between zones to allow for interzone
  transfers.

26
Capacity (GW) by state for 3 scenarios
  HighWind HighWind HighWind Intermediate Intermediate Intermediate HighSolar HighSolar HighSolar
  Wind PV CSP Wind PV CSP Wind PV CSP
AZ 4.3 4.8 4.0 1.4 9.5 9.5 0.2 14.5 9.7
CA 11.1 11.6 3.0 5.9 16.1 3.8 5.4 19.4 9.2
CO 5.5 2.5 0.2 3.9 2.6 0.2 3.0 5.1 1.3
ID 1.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0
MT 5.9 0.1 0.0 4.0 0.1 0.0 1.0 0.1 0.0
NM 4.2 0.4 0.1 2.8 2.1 0.3 0.5 3.2 0.6
NV 2.8 0.9 0.6 1.4 4.1 0.6 0.2 6.6 0.6
OR 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SD 2.3 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
TX 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0
UT 1.1 0.9 0.0 0.6 2.2 0.0 0.3 4.9 0.0
WA 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
WY 9.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0
                   
Total 47.3 21.3 7.8 29.6 37.1 14.4 13.0 54.2 21.3