LCDR Kleanthis Kyriakidis HN

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LCDR Kleanthis Kyriakidis HN Advisor  Dr. Peter
C. Chu Second Reader Mr. Steven D. Haeger
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• INTRODUCTION
• STUDY SITE
• Forcing mechanism
• Baroclinicity
• WQMAP MODEL
• MODEL EVALUATION
• CHEMMAP MODEL
• CHEMICAL THREAT SCENARIOS
• CONCLUSIONS

OUTLINE
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• INTRODUCTION/ IMPORTANCE
• Littoral Waters Special Operations, Mine
  Warfare, Expeditionary Warfare, Object Drift,
  Search and Rescue, Oil Spill
• National Security Prediction of propagation in
  case of Chemical Attack or accident
• Model evaluations Requirements for prediction of
  currents and tides worldwide

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• INTRODUCTION/ PURPOSE
• Determine how well 2D depth-integrated models
  will satisfy certain Navy applications in coastal
  bays.
• Evaluate the models WQMAP - CHEMMAP purchased by
  NAVOCEANO
• Apply the CHEMMAP model in different threat
  scenarios in San Diego Bay

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• STUDY SITE - SAN DIEGO BAY
• Importance Large City, Host of a significant
  part of US Navy, near the borders
• Oceanographic Interest Small Tidal Basin, Semi-
  Enclosed Bay
• Advantage Historic Data

Zuniga jetty
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• STUDY SITE - CHARACTERISTICS
• Average depth 6.5 m (measured from the mean sea
  level). Northern/outer part narrower (1-2 km
  wide) - deeper (up to 15 m) . Southern/inner part
  wider (2-4 km wide) - shallower (less than 5 m).
• Average temperature 21 C (range 14 26 C).
  Average temperature during summer (late June to
  late August) 23 C.
• Salinity (32.5 - 37.5 ppt) and average 35 ppt
  (in summer 36 ppt).

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• STUDY SITE FORCING MECHANISMS
• Currents produced by tides (tidal pumping
  caused due to the flow difference between ebb and
  flood).
• Winds insignificant effect. Both westerly
  afternoon winds and easterly morning/ evening
  winds less than 5 m/sec
• Annual precipitation 0.26 m (in summer negligible
  less than 0.005 m) . No significant river inflow

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• BAROCLINICITY
• Data used 3 ADCP sites in summer 1993 (SPAWAR)
• ADCP /velocity coefficient remarks
• Nb1/u 97.16
• Nb1/v 96.32
• Nb2/u 91.89
• Nb2/v 94.71
• Bb/u 35.19
• Bb/v 92.94
• Bb/u 49.53 Filtered
• Bb/v 100.00 Filtered

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• BAROCLINICITY EXCEPTION
• u component near point Loma has great differences
  in surface and bottom.
• Reasons for discrepancies
• Relatively open ocean
• (Influence of California Current
• as well as influence of Wind )
• Data from ADCP very near to Zuniga jetty

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WQMAP MODEL MAIN EQUATIONS
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• WQMAP MODEL - APPROXIMATIONS AND BOUNDARY
  CONDITIONS
• Hydrostatic
• Boussinesq
• Land boundaries assumed impermeable (normal
  component of velocity set to zero).
• At closed boundaries transport of substance (i.e.
  salinity) is zero.
• At open boundaries, concentration specified
  during the inflow, using characteristic values.

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• MODEL EVALUATION/
• VELOCITY COMPONENTS
• Data/Model comparison
• Mean values differences 0.491.29 cm/s
• Deviation values differences 0.44 6.70
• Correlation Coefficient 91.66 - 92.60
• Root Mean Square Error 6.739.02 cm/s
• Error Coefficient Variation6.8 16.76

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• MODEL EVALUATION/ ELEVATION
• Data/Model comparison
• NOAA SPAWAR
• M2 (ampl dif) 2.51 cm 3.83 cm
• K1 (ampl dif) - 0.94 cm 3.73 cm
• O1 (ampl dif) - 0.84 cm - 2.19 cm
• S2 (ampl dif) 0.71 cm - 1.1 cm
• M2 (ph dif) 0.75 o - 1.71 o
• K1 (phdif) - 26.08 o - 25.94 o
• O1 (ph dif) 29.58 o - 45.33 o
• S2 (ph dif) - 48.96 o 5.41 o

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• MODEL EVALUATION/ CONCLUSION
• 2D Model satisfactory for well-mixed areas of the
  Bay (less accurate for the entrance)
• Few Discrepancies due to proximity of ADCPs to
  the shore, bathymetry errors

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• CHEMMAP MODEL
• Predicts trajectory/ fate of floating, sinking,
  evaporating, soluble and insoluble chemicals and
  product mixtures.
• Estimates the distribution of chemical elements
  on the surface, in the water column and in the
  sediments.
• Langrangian approach

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CHEMMAP MODEL SELECTION OF CHEMICALS
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• CHEMICAL THREAT SCENARIOS
• 12 scenarios (6 chemicals in North and South San
  Diego Bay)
• Methanol (1 barrel released in depth 1m).
• Benzene (10 tons in depth 1m).
• Ammonia (200 tons in depth 3m).
• Chlorobenzene (200 tons in depth 3m).
• Trichloroethylene (200 tons in depth 3m).
• Naphthalene (200 tons in depth 3m).

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• CHEMICAL THREAT SCENARIOS/ RESULTS NORTH SAN
  DIEGO BAY
• In 3 hours San Diego port/city
• In 10 hours Entire North SD Bay
• In 12 hours Outside SD Bay
• In 16-30 hours Naval Station
• In 5 days Heavy impact on NS
• In 20 Days South Bay
• In 32 Days The entire SD Bay

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• CHEMICAL THREAT SCENARIOS/ RESULTS SOUTH SAN
  DIEGO BAY
• In 12 hours Naval Station
• In 15-17days Small part of absorbed or dissolved
  chemical in San Diego city/port
• After 32 days No effect to North San Diego Bay

Comparison of different chemicals results after
spilling in South San Diego Bay
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• CHEMICAL THREAT SCENARIOS
• RESULTS FOR FLOATERS
• Methanol after 3 days 45-50 in water column,
  after 20 days less than 5 - rest decayed.
• Benzene 45 evaporates. After 2 days 30-50 in
  water column, after 20 days 8-18 - rest decayed.
  
• Ammonia After 3 days 50-75 in water column,
  after 20 days 8-18 - rest decayed.

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• CHEMICAL THREAT SCENARIOS
• RESULTS FOR SINKERS
• Chlorobenzene After 5 days 65 - 97 in water
  column, after 20 days 50-90 - rest decayed.
• Trichloroethylene After 5 days 60-93 in water
  column, after 20 days 38-71 - rest decayed.
• Naphthalene (gas/air dispersed) After 5 days 33
  - 78 in water column, after 20 days 12-33 -
  rest decayed.

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• APPLICATION CONCLUSIONS
• Great danger/ vulnerability
• In the North San Diego Bay, contamination of
  city/port, Bay small reaction time.
• In the South San Diego Bay, contamination only of
  Southern part (including Naval Station).
• When in the South, bigger percentage of chemical
  and for more time remains in the water column.

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• GENERAL CONCLUSIONS
• San Diego purely barotropic
• San Diego Bay purely tidal forcing
• 2D depth-integrated models should be applied to
  semi-enclosed, well-mixed, tidal basins. WQMAP -
  CHEMMAP far from perfect but useful
• Discrepancies mainly due to proximity of ADCP
  sites to shoreline, bathymetry errors

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• RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FURTHER RESEARCH
• Use of better bathymetry, finer grid and more
  recent ADCP measurements (and more distant from
  the shore).
• More detailed comparison of 3D vs. 2D model and
  application for drift and for instantaneous
  current prediction.
• Classified thesis with data about real chemical
  threat (e.g. anthrax) - not available to
  foreigners.

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Questions?
Questions?