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Module One
Bringing the Future to the Present Pre-Adapting
Your Organization to What Happens After What
Comes Next
 
Presented By Thornton May Futurist
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I Am A Futurist!
2004
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Aural Rorschach Test
What Is the First Thing That Leaps To Mind
When You Hear the Phrase Futurist?
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Aural Rorschach Test
P.T. Barnum
Tarot Cards
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What Dont Working Futurists Do?
What We Dont Do tell fortunes Prophecy is
a habit of foolsdont write best sellers
most books are obsolete before they hit the
shelvesdont only do the rubber chicken
circuitmindlessly spit out statistics with no
interpretationdont talk about things or issues
we know nothing about the seagull thing
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What Do Working Futurists Do?
Future ofConsumer BehaviorWorkWealth
ManagementGovernment RegulationHealth
CareEducationWarTechnology
1. We document linearities trendsWhere Have
We Been?Where Are We Today?Where Are We Going?
2. We analyze specific end points We are
Temporal Travel Agents Just as historical
novelists e.g., Leo Tolstoy bring to life the
places of the past, Futurists bring to life the
places of the future
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What Do Working Futurists Do?
3. We test drive potential products, processes
and people4. We document skills sets and minds
sets critical for success in the future
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My Objective Today?
Convert All of You into Rapid DogFuturists
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Four Techniques for Futuring
Tracing LinearitiesDeja ViewingBringing the
Future to the PresentExperience Hitch-Hiking
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Deja Viewing
Deja Viewing, a technique frequently used to
craft insight-producing, behavior-changing
scenarios of what lies ahead and what actions
should be taken, involves looking intensely at
the attributes of the current period and asking,
Have we experienced anything like this before?
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Two Deja Views Emerged
The post-Sputnik 1960s the launch of the
Russian satellite October 4, 1957 shook a
fundamental and almost universally held belief
that Americans were and would always be
significantly ahead of the Soviets is ALL aspects
of science and technology. The universally
examined and widely adopted practice of
outsourcing higher end IT work similarly has
shaken the belief that America and Americans
would always lead the world of computer
technology.The first big management consulting
fad - scientific management late 19th and
early 20th century - Frederick Taylor
synthesized a program designed to assist
management reduce waste through the careful study
of work and adoption of standardized work
practices. The processes of IT are being closely
studied with an eye toward simplification,
standardization and significant improvement in
productivity.
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Bringing the Future to the Present
Go to a future point in time and paint a picture
of what you want to happen.
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Bringing the Future to the Present
Famous Example ofBringing the Future to the
Present During a joint session of Congress on
May 25, 1961, President Kennedy went out a decade
and saw an American on the moon.
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Bringing the Future to the Present
Before we can Bring the Future to the PresentWe
have to develop a rudimentary capability
intechnology linearity.
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20 Years Studying How Organizations Make
Decisions Reveal Three Different Kinds of Futures
1. The Future That Is A Predictable Linear
Extrapolation of the World We Live In Today
2. The Oh S_ _ _! Future That Happens to You
3. The Future We Create
All of our Nexts Will Be A Blended Portfolio of
These Kinds of Futures
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Linearitiesthe school figuresof Futuring
Where we have been?Where we are today?Where
we are going?
Piet MondrianRhythm of Black Linesc. 1935/42
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Story
May-san, Ware-ware mondai ga arimasu yo!
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Linearities Head-Set Exercise
In your groups, please divide the years 1987
through 2017 into computational eras.no
less than 2, no more than 6
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Head Set Exercise
What Patterns/Trends if anydo you
thinkmanifested themselves in the responses
of hundreds of executives?
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Head-Set Exercise
Do you suppose the hundreds of senior executives
participating in this exercise tended to spend
more time talking aboutThe Past or the
Future?The Gadget or the Behaviors
enabled/required by the Gadget? The Cost or
the Value? General Understanding of How IT
works?What was happening inside the enterprise
or outside the enterprise?
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Base Case Outputs Computational Eras Exercise
???A.M.O.
NOW!
InternetEnterprise Software
Client Server
Personal Computing
Source Thornton May, The New Mental Landscape A
Forensic Analysis of C Level Thinking About
Information Technology
Mainframe
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Linearities the school figures of Futuring
Management teams have real problems figuring
out how longs line last.
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When you hear the words, technology
imagination What comes to mind?
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technology imagination Is a business process
that has to be managed, measured and very much
improved upon. Technology imagination is the
process that tells us what we want technology to
do for us.
Short Term Technology Imagination Alignment
Longer Term Technology Imagination Vision
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In the Immediate Future, We Face A Crisis of
Technology Imagination
The tech program at Camp Wing is run by a Waltham
nonprofit called WiredWoods. The goal is to get
campers interested in using computers creatively
-- rather than just surfing the Web and dashing
off instant messages. ''We're careful to make
sure it doesn't feel like school.' There aren't
any lectures in the WiredWoods cabin -- only
projects to work on, and four adult ''project
specialists'' to help out when campers have
questions. ''When we started this in 2001, we
were responding to a particular problem,''
Deninger says. ''There were computers everywhere,
but we couldn't get kids to want to do anything
other than sit there and surf the Web. And
surfing the Web is a lot like watching TV -- it's
passive. So we try to catalyze their interest in
creating, rather than just consuming.''
Scott Kirsner, Technology fun comes to summer
camp, New York Times (7/21/2003).
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The thought processes of Thought Leadersinside
many companiesregarding information
technologyare in most casestragically flawed
BadNews
C Level IT Landscape
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The Mixed Marbles Exercise
1000 Red Marbles
1000 Blue Marbles
Red Bin
Blue Bin
20 from Blue Bin to Red Bin- then 20 from Red Bin
to Blue Bin. At the end of 3 Round Trips, which
container has more of the alien color in it?
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One of the Key Outputs of Any Strategic Planning
Initiative
Document widely held assumptions regarding
how longs line last.e.g., what
changeswhat stays the same?
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Futuring is All About Determining How Long Do
Things/Should Things Stay the Same?
How Buildings Learn,1994
daily / monthly
3 years or so
7- 15 years
20 years or so
30 to 300 years
The rebuilding of American cities, for example,
involves a 35 year cycle. The expansion of
medical services involves 15 year planning the
time it takes to enter college and complete
medical board exams. H.Kahn A. Wiener, The Year
2000 A Framework for Speculation on the Next
Thirty-Three years (1967).
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The Bias of Moderns to Believe that Lines No
Longer Exist
New College, Oxford despite its name was founded
in the late 14th century. It has a great
dining hall with big oak beams which are 2 feet
square and 45 feet across. A century ago, a
building examiner poked a pen knife into the
beams and discovered they were full of beetles.
This was reported to the College Council, who
met in some dismay, lamenting where they would
ever find beams of that caliber.
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Macro-Linearity
An enterprising Council Member suggested that
there might be on College lands some oak as
English Colleges are endowed with pieces of land.
  They approached the College Forester who
pulled his forelock and said, Well sirs, we was
wonderin when youd be asking.
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Linearity
Upon further inquiry it was discovered that when
the College was founded, a grove of oaks had been
planted to replace the beams in the dining hall
when they became beetly. College architects knew
oak beams always become beetly in the end.
This plan had been passed down from one
Forester to the next for six hundred years.
You dont cut them oaks. Thems for the
College Hall.
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Problems With Linearity

• Market researchers deciding whether to put a
  train station in a town currently without one,
  sends market researchers to the town to see if
  there is any demand for a station.
• Upon arriving in the town, the researchers see no
  one waiting for a train and therefore conclude,
  there is no demand.

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I would not be surprised if the Russians reached
the moon within the week.
John Rinehart of the Smithsonian Astrophysical
Observatory in Cambridge, MA October 1957
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Soon they will be dropping bombs on us from
space like kids dropping rocks onto cars from
freeway overpasses.
Senator Lyndon Johnson October 1957
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People Misunderstand LinearityThe Cumulative
Impact of Time

• A congressman was discussing US energy needs with
  a futurist. The congressman pointed out that
  adequate conservation measures and modest
  lifestyles could reduce growth in electrical
  demand to 2 percent per year.
•  
• But Congressman, said the modeler,even at 2
  percent per year, electrical demand will double
  in 35 years.
•  
• Thats your opinion! exclaimed the Congressman.
•  
• The point is not to mock legislative innumeracy
  but to underscore that even the most technically
  valid model
• doesnt guarantee useful communication
• or productive interaction.

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Technology Timelines
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1.General ComputingTruths
FUTURE
2003
2005 - 2007
2010
10 GHz processor 2TB database 1GB link all
for 800
Infrastructure owned by nobody Internetcarryin
g pieces of programs following no architectural
design client server running across flaky LAN
protocolsconnecting powerful systems run by
amateurs.
Processing Power Doubles Every 18 monthsStorage
Capacity Doubles Every 12 monthsBandwidth
Throughput Doubles Every 9 months
Big Ideas
BIG IDEAS1. Technology advances are not slowing
down.We will make as much progress in the next
18 months as we had during the entire history of
computing up to today.2. Computing devices of
tomorrow will not be like the computing devices
of today.
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History of Technology 101

• The technology era we are just about to enter
  will feature intelligent, semi-aware, always-on
  devices made by other intelligent, semi-aware
  devices driven by ubiquitous, nano-scale, data
  collecting sensors.
• In 10 years, every molecule on the planet will be
  IP Addressable. RF-ID and GPS on key fobs are
  just the tip of the iceberg.

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The Crisis in Technology Imagination
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Too Much Cash?
Cash balances at 372 industrial companies in the
Standard Poors 500 Index climbed 21 in 2003.
Thats the biggest increase in cash since the
economic peak in 2000, when cash jumped
26. Cash balances at Lehman up 147 at
ExxonMobil up 47. Microsoft is sitting on 53
billion in cash.
Matt Krantz, Companies cope with too much cash,
USA Today (March 2, 2004), 1B.
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The Future of IT is Global

• Challenge 1 In rural Lebanon, there is a group
  of village schools which have no access to
  computers, nor to the internet and no
  connectivity. The school headmasters wish to
  introduce regular IT classes and teach word
  processing and access to the Internet. No donor
  is willing, at this time, to put in even a modest
  amount of computers and computing infrastructure
  in the schools. How can the headmasters realize
  their dream?
• Challenge 2 In Sri Lanka, farmers in rural areas
  have problems ranging from pests infecting the
  crops, to a cow that is not providing milk. The
  farmers have heard of the internet, but most of
  them are illiterate, and do not know English.
  Besides, they have no access to computers. How
  can farmers access knowledge on the internet,
  without computers or hand-held devices?
• Challenge 3 In a village of 6.5 million
  villagers in Karnataka, India, land records are
  critical for the villagers to get access to crop
  subsidies, for widows to qualify for pensions,
  and as a means of identity. The system is
  riddled with corruption and red tape, where
  village officials need to be bribed. A
  public-private partnership wants to address the
  issues using IT. What should be done?

Mohamed Muhsin, Vice President CIO, the World
Bank Group
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Technology Imagination Drives Value
The competitive advantage you gain from using
information technology is not based on storing or
moving bits around, but based on what you do with
them.
Gregor Bailar, CIO Capital One
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Bring the Future to the Present...
The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994
Horrific traffic jams and motorist
congestion California Transportation Department
(Caltrans) estimates 24 months to fix a key
destroyed bridge on the Santa Monica Freeway in
Beverly Hills. Economic cost of the bridge being
closed to the flow of traffic 1,000,000 a
day. Mayor Dick Riordan faces the first crisis of
his young administration started his job July
1993
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Bring the Future to the Present...
The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994
C.C. Meyers, innovative contractor and
entrepreneur based in Sacramento gets excited.
He sketches out the rough skeleton of a plan and
then he proceeds to act on it as though he has
the future in the palm of his hands. He contacts
eight people.
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Bring the Future to the Present...
The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994
Thursday morning The first person CC calls is a
woman who used to work for him. She was his
administrative assistant. She knows his style.
She is very well connected in LA. He says to her,
Please Arrange for me a 15 minute meeting with
the Mayor of the City of Los Angeles anytime
tomorrow, Friday. He has given her a purpose.
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Bring the Future to the Present...
The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994
He then contacts six key bridge building
subcontractors. He tells them to be ready to
report to the bridge site with the best team of
specialists they can assemble to work on the
bridge at the beginning of next week. He has
given them purpose and asked them to prepare to
do adaptive planning. He acts as if he has the
future in the palm of his hand. Does he have a
contract? Does he know he will get the contract?
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Bring the Future to the Present...
The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994
The eighth phone call he makes is to his
attorney. I have drafted a half page which is
my commitment but I need you to work on it and
notorize it. It is signed and notorized. He
relaxes. Things have been set in motion.
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Bring the Future to the Present...
The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994
Thursday evening His former AA gets back to him.
Tomorrow you have a meeting with the mayor of
the City of Los Angeles at 3 oclock. Does the
mayor know about this meeting yet? No but his
secretary does.
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Bring the Future to the Present...
The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994
Friday meeting with the Mayor Mr. Mayor, I am
here to tell you that I will have the Santa
Monica freeway bridge open safely to the flow of
traffic in six months. The Mayor asked, How
can you do this?
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Bring the Future to the Present...
The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994
Safety was a concern Tyranny of the Or People
think you can have it fast OR you can have it
safe not both. The inspectors will converge
on the job site next week and they will watch
every step of the way. It will not be the batch
processing adversarial look for mistakes after
they have been made kind of thinking. Instead
of having them come take a look every six weeks
and have us have to redo all work we may have
done wrong. They will stop the wrong from
happening in the first place. We will not have to
undo or redo anything. We will bring the
future in this case inspection to the
present.
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Bring the Future to the Present...
The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994
Friday meeting with the Mayor Mr. Mayor, I sense
that you are still a little concerned. I have
here a document that will put all your fears to
rest. If I am late so much as one day after the
six months I promise I will pay a penalty. A
penalty of 100,000 a day. This document pledges
the full extent of my net worth as collateral for
that promise-to-pay. The bid for the bridge work
is 15 million. The mayor says, that is very
serious. Lets bring in the Citys attorneys, get
this thing signed and get started. Mr. Mayor,
there is one more issue we need to discuss.
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Bring the Future to the Present...
The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994
Before we sign the document, lets talk about
what happens if I finish early? I pay a penalty
for finishing late. Why not give me a reward for
finishing early? The mayor started laughing.
You will be lucky to be on time let alone
early. Then you should not have any problem
putting a clause in the contract that says for
every day I am early I receive a million
dollars. The mayor jumps. Young man. Where do
you get all these numbers?
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Time Focus Beat All...
The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994
Meyers puts money in escrow AND SAYS HE WILL PAY
THEM FOR EVERYDAY HE IS LATE 100,000/DAY) Negot
iates a deal such that he will be paid a bonus
for every day he is early (100,000 /day)
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Time Focus Beat All...
The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994
Explains to all parties involved the economics of
the deal and makes them SIGNIFICANT beneficiaries
if they come in early. Every employee, every
supplier knows exactly what time costs -- about
100,000 a day -- split among themselves. No one
was walking on that construction site.
Shared Vision
Shared Focus
Shared Purpose
Alignment of designers, contractors, inspectors,
officials of the city, state and federal
government and the general public.
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Time Focus Beat All...
The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994
Railroad company explains that there will be an
eight day delay in the delivery of much needed
steel. The next delivery train is not available
for eight days. C.C. Meyers negotiates for a
special train.

How much do you think Mr. Meyers was willing to
pay for his special delivery???
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Time Focus Beat All...
The Los Angeles Earthquake January 17, 1994
The bridge is completed 66 days from award of
contract.