Thinking Globally About Michigan Education

1
Thinking Globally About Michigan Education

• Brian Rowan
• School of Education
• Institute for Social Research
• University of Michigan

2
Themes

• Michigan is in the midst of a major economic
  transition.
• The building of a world class education system
  in Michigan will be important to the success of
  that transition.
• Currently, Michigans K-12 education system is
  not among the best in the world (or even the
  USA).
• So What can Michigan educators learn from
  global trends in educational achievement and
  improvement?

3
Michigans Economic Transition
4
Michigan and the Global Economy

• In 2008, Michigan ranked 8th among U.S. states in
  the value of exports.
• Michigans economy is the size of Argentinas.
• Michigans place in the world economy is due in
  large part to the Big 3 automakers.
• 46 of all Michigan exports involve
  transportation equipment.
• Michigans biggest trade partners are Canada
  (53), Mexico, Germany, Japan, and China
• 72 of all export value was produced in the
  Detroit metro area
• More than 10,000 companies in Michigan are
  engaged in exporting.
• 89 are small companies
• But, small companies account for only 12 of
  export value

Export Jobs as Percent of Total
In 2005, 1 in 5 jobs in Michigan was export
related.
5
Michigans Economic Transition

• Michigan is experiencing its longest period of
  job loss since the Great Depression.
• Unemployment is now at 12.9.
• The manufacturing sector has been hardest hit,
  especially the automotive sector, with nearly 10
  straight years of job losses (see Table).

6
Michigan and the New Economy

• Many analysts believe Michigan must make a
  transition to the new economy if we are to
  maintain our historic standard of living.
• The new economy is
• a knowledge-based economy
• where innovative ideas and technologies raise
  productivity, asset values, and standards of
  living
• The new economy is indexed by
• Growth in the service sector (education services,
  financial services, professional/technical/scienti
  fic services, business management services)
• Research and development to enhance productivity
• Employment in high tech industries (e.g.,
  info-tech, nano-tech, bio-tech)

7
Can Michigan Make the Transition?

• Michigan is not without strengths in this area
• It is an engineering center
• It has strong universities and RD activities
• It attracts foreign investment and foreign talent
• It has a growing knowledge economy

8
How K-12 Education Can Help

• Many factors will determine Michigans success in
  transitioning to a new economy.
• K-12 education will be a key to this transition.
• That is because quality of educationas judged by
  STUDENT ACHIEVEMENT SCORESis associated with
  economic development.
• Eric Hanushek estimates that for every one
  standard deviation increase in student test
  scores, economic growth rates increase by 1.
• Figure 2 projects what might happen after an
  education reform that increased student
  achievement by 1/2 s.d over three time periods.
• The Lesson Slow but steady education reform
  ultimately produces increased economic growth!

9
An Example of Economic Transition Finland
10
Finlands Trajectory to Economic Development
11
The Role of Education in Finlands Economic
Growth
12
Michigan Education in Global Perspective
13
Can Education Drive Michigans Transition?

• To answer that question, well first compare U.S.
  educational outcomes to outcomes in other
  countries.
• Key benchmark countries are
• English speaking nations
• European countries
• Asian countries (Hong Kong, Japan, Korea,
  Singapore)
• Then, well locate Michigans educational
  outcomes within the distribution of U.S. outcomes
  generally.
• In both cases, well want to look at
• Student achievement near the end of basic
  education
• Means
• Disparities
• Post secondary outcomes
• Were asking, does Michigan have a world class
  education system?

14
International Comparisons Where Does the U.S.
Stand?
15
The U.S. No Longer Leads the World in Educational
Provision/Attainment
16
The U.S. Also Lags in Educational Achievement
International Comparisons (PISA)

• Why PISA?
• Test measures knowledge use in
• reallife situations
• Test assesses students near end of
• basic schooling (age 15).
• ------------------
• U.S. 15 year olds typically had lower achievement
  scores than
• All English speaking nations (Australia, Canada,
  Ireland, New Zealand, the United Kingdom
• All Asian nations
• Most European nations (except in reading)

17
U.S. Educational Outcomes International
Comparisons (Meta Analysis)

• Other testing programs show similar results.
• A meta analysis of results from multiple
  international assessment programs shows that U.S.
  students typically fall in the middle of the
  pack.
• Two exceptions
• Reading
• Civics

18
PISA Also Shows Substantial Ethnic Disparities
in U.S. Educational Outcomes
1 sd 100 points. Black gap to OECD average
.91 sd Hispanic gap to OECD average .61 sd
19
How Far Behind World Standards Are U.S.
Minority Students?
1 s.d. 100 points. Black gap to Finland 1.5
sd Hispanic gap to Finland 1.24 sd.
20
PISA also Shows Income Disparities in
AchievementOn the PISA (2006) science test,
the U.S. had below average achievement and above
average SES disparities in achievement
21
Michigans Educational Outcomes
22
Michigan Education in National
Perspective(Source Quality Counts)
By most indicators, Michigan is average in terms
of tested achievement. Moreover, tested
achievement and achievement gaps have been fairly
stable this decade.
23
More Evidence of Disparities(Michigans low
income and minority students perform below
comparable students in most other states.)
Trends shown here are for 8th grade math. But,
trends are similar for reading.
24
Michigans Reputation
This chart labels Michigan as low in achievement
and high in achievement dispar- ities. It
measures disparities in terms of minority
student concentration in low achieving
schools. It measures achievement in terms of
proficient on NAEP. Ranks are above and
below national average and do not take into
account statistical significance of
state-to- state differences.
Source Lost Opportunity, Scott Foundation for
Public Education (8th grade math
25
Other Quality Indicators Graduation Rates
Michigan ranks in the middle of the pack on
graduation rates.
Source NCES
MI Four Year Cohort Graduation Rates 2007

75.45
26
Other Quality Indicators Michigans
Disturbing Disparities in Graduation Rates
(2003-2004)
African American 32 Asian

67 Latino 35 White 73
Source Education Trust, Inc., Education
Watch-Michigan (2006)
27
Other Quality Indicators Michigans college
going population is taking a rigorous curriculum
Source Achieve, Inc., American Diploma Project,
Michigan Report, 2008
28
AND More Michigan Students Are Taking AP Exams
Source Achieve, Inc., American Diploma Project,
Michigan Report, 2008
29
But, Postsecondary Participation and Persistence
Lag Behind Top States and Show Real Disparities
Source Education Trust, Inc., Education
Watch-Michigan (2006)
30
Why Education Disparities Are Important

• Michigans population will grow slowly over the
  next two decades (MI will fall from 10th to 11th
  in state population rank).
• Michigan will continue to have a majority White
  population (gt75) in the next two decades.
• But, almost ALL population growth over the next
  two decades will occur among Black and Hispanic
  populations.

31
What Michigan Can Learn from Other Countries
Global Trends in Educational Improvement
32
Explanations for Cross-National Differences in
Academic Achievement

• Place in world system
• Economic development status
• Historic civilizations
• Education system variables
• Centralization/decentralization
• Standards and accountability
• Inspection/improvement regimes
• Time/Opportunity to Learn
• Cross-sector alignment
• CBEs
• Training models
• Well-developed teaching profession
• Choice/Privatization

• Societal planning models
• Cross-sector coordination/trust
• Consistent leadership
• National commitment
• National Culture Models
• Life cycle emphasis (early/late)
• Ability/effort
• Out-of-school resources

33
Economic Development/Historic Civilization

• There is a world model of schooling.
• It diffused from the north to the south
• (1st to 2nd to 3rd world).
• Later adopters generally have lower levels
• of school knowledge than early adopters
• Later adopters also face different issues
• in educational management/improvement
• Motivating participation rates
• Mobilizing education resources
• Government efficiency
• The countries we benchmark against are
• are more highly developed

34
Among Developed Nations Spending and
Achievement Are Weakly Related
The USA is among developed nations with high
education spending, but lower achievement. In
the U.S., research does not show a Consistent
relationship between spending and
achievement.
USA
35
Education System ModelsCentralization/Decentrali
zation

• The US has a decentralized education system.
• We often think that other (non-English-speaking)
  nations are more centralized.
• But, the world model of education is moving
  toward decentralization
• Centralization/decentralization occur across many
  dimensions of decision making.
• The new world model typically has centralized
  standards and test-based accountability
• But there is huge variation cross-nationally in
  centralization of other functions, like
• Curriculum
• Instructional practice
• Resource allocation decisions
• Control over funding
• Control over instructional materials (textbooks)
• Control over teacher hiring

36
A Brief Look at Variation in European Systems
Centralization/Decentralization

• In the table, deeper hue more autonomy.
• European systems vary greatly in
• what is centrally/regionally/locally
• regulated.
• Research suggests that
• Days in school year, length of
• school day is not related to
• achievement differences
• curricular centralization
• standardizes teaching
• centralization/decentralization
• overall have no consistent effects
• on assessment outcomes

Time
Instruction
Organization
37
A Brief Look at Variation in European Systems
Testing Systems
European systems have a variety of assessment
regimes
38
A Brief Look at Variation in European Systems
Variation in Test- and Inspection-Based
Monitoring of Education
England Large-scale assessment CBEs
inspection used in government monitoring of
schools. France Large-scale assessment CBEs
inspection used in government monitoring of
schools. Italy Large-scale assessment CBEs
used in government evaluation of schools. No
inspection system. Finland Monitoring by
assessment results
Research suggests that systems with CBEs have
higher assessment results.
39
A Brief Look at Variation in European Systems
Inspection/Reporting Systems
England A list of specific criteria is used for
school evaluation, nation publishes results of
test and inspection results France No list of
evaluation criteria exists (inspectorate has
discretion), and there is no publication of
evaluation results. Schools are held accountable
to inspectorate. Italy/Finland No external
evaluation of school quality exists.
There is no research on the effects of
inspection/improvement systems on assessment
outcomes.
40
A Brief Look at Variation in European Systems
Teacher Hiring is Made at Many System Levels
England Municipal hiring (school hiring for
public schools). France Central government
control over hiring/allocation. Italy Central
government control over hiring/allocation. Finla
nd LEA control over hiring.
41
A Brief Look at Variation in European Systems
School Choice Policies Vary
England Choice with limits France
Allocation Italy Choice with limits Finland
Allocation
Research suggests choice can occur without
increasing disparities. Systems with greater
private school enrollment have slightly higher
assessment outcomes.
42
Applying Cross-National Results to Michigan

• In the USA, states might be thought of as the
  equivalent of national ministries.
• But, in the USA, states almost always lack the
  capacity of national ministries.
• Therefore, locating responsibility for different
  functional responsibilities at different levels
  of state systems is an important decision.
• What system level controls standards and testing?
• What system level engages in inspection/evaluation
  ?
• What system level has authority over resource
  allocation?

43
The Michigan Situation

• Michigans system of standards and assessments is
  considered world class (Achieve, Inc.).
• But, MEAP proficiency standards are lower than
  NAEP proficiency standards.
• Michigan receives high grades for cross sector
  linkages (Quality Counts).
• K-12 assessment now linked to college standards,
  incentives for students (and approximates a CBE)
• K-12 workplace linkages exist (career tech
  diploma, industry licensure)
• But, cross-national literature might be used for
  models of cross-sector linkages

44
The Michigan Situation

• Michigans system inspection and support for
  improvement is underdeveloped.
• Heavy reliance on state-mandated public reporting
• Real improvement assumed to occur through
  self-evaluation.
• No professionalized and staffed inspection
  system.
• Under-developed intervention strategy for
  under-performing schools.
• Michigans support of the teaching profession is
  mixed
• MI teachers are well-paid by American/World
  standards
• MI has increased subject-specific course work
  requirements and has subject matter testing of
  teachers
• MI does not have well-developed entry into
  teaching
• MI does not have well-developed teacher
  evaluation system
• MI does not have well-developed system of
  monitoring teacher education outputs

45
The Michigan Situation

• Michigans political system might lack the
  features of political systems that have
  stimulated marked and sustained education
  improvement
• Researchers classify Michigan as a local
  control education system
• Research shows that this form of decentralization
  leads to educational improvement when there is
• consensus
• and common commitment to improvement
• But, researchers also classify Michigan education
  politics as fragmented, with low consensus
• No highly visible, non-partisan policy analysis
  capacity
• Education funding debates often prevail over
  substantive discussions
• Key constituencies in contention
• Importantly, platforms for discussion/planning/con
  sensus building are emerging (Superintendents
  re-visioning process, the Center for Michigan)

46
Summary

• Michigan education is not at the top by world
  class standards
• High cost/medium performance/high inequity
• Uneven quality of organization
• Strong standards
• Strong accountability
• Progress on cross-sector linkages
• Low improvement capacity
• Low attention to upgrading the teaching
  profession
• Michigan needs to come together around
  educational improvement.
• In planning for improvement, there are no magic
  formula to copy.
• Each nation/state is unique. But each can learn
  from the others.