Impact Assessment of Thailand FTA

1
Impact Assessment of Thailand FTA
KAMEYAMA Hiroshi,Tawan BOOTSUMRAN Associate Prof.
and Master student, Faculty of Agriculture,
Kagawa University E-mailkameyama_at_ag.kagawa-u.ac.j
p
index for assessment a. equivalent variation
(EV) The welfare change measurement in
GTAP, million US, a money metric equivalent of
this utility change and any change in population.
The regional households EV, resulting from a
policy shock, is equal to the difference between
the expenditure required to obtain the new level
of utility at initial expenditure.2 b. Real
GDP (qgdp) quantity index of GDP (gross
domestic product), changes c. terms of trade
(tot) The price of exports relative to the
price of imports, change. TOT improvement
reduces the price of total domestic final
expenditure (which includes imports but not
exports) relative to the market price of output
(which includes exports but not imports).

Abstract This study addresses the economic
assessment of the impacts of Thailand Free Trade
Agreement (FTA) and trade liberalization between
Thailand and regional countries quantitatively.
Thailand will be in a good position to perform
a gratifying consequences and entirely advantage
from FTA.
I. INTRODUCTION Thailand and Japan reached a
general accord for an economics partnership
agreement (EPA) in 2005. The free trade agreement
(FTA) reduces barries on more than US40 billion
trade. It is also expected to help increase
cross-country investment and technology transfer/
Japan is Thailands single largest trading
partner and investor, and Thailand is a leading
exporter and supplier of a number of food, raw
materials and finished products to Japan1.
II. GTAP MODEL and the TRADE POLICY SIMULATION
The analysis is based on a Computable General
Equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade. For
performing GE analysis, GTAP model (version 6,
2005) was employed. This database provides
input-output table with 87 regions and 57
commodities and bilateral trade. We aggregate it
into 20-regions 11-setors and 5-factors.The
data of each country in this model corresponds to
the global economy in 2001.
Trade impact in ASEAN
change
Note1. policy simulation is eliminating the
Import Tariff among ASEAN countries.
2.Values are the change of VIMS (Trade-
Bilateral imports at market prices ). 3.
In case of ALL1 scenario as follows.
IV. RESULT Thailand will be in a good
position to perform a gratifying consequence, and
entirely advance from FTA.
III. IMPACT ASSESSMENT by SIMULATION Four
scenarios a. with and without sensitive
goods (Processed rice, Sugar), b.
armington trade substitution elasticities,
standard or doubled
zero tariff (import tax) armington
elasticity ALL1 all commodity
standard ALL2
all commodity
doubled SEN1 without sensitive
commodity standard SEN2
without sensitive commodity doubled
Reference 3
References 1 Suthiphand Chirathivat,
Japan-Thailand EPA Problems and Future,
working paper No.5, Center for Contemporary
Asian Studies (CCAS) Doshisha Univ., Japan,
May 2007. 2 Karen M. Huff and Thomas W. Hertel,
Decomposing Welfare Changes in the GTAP
Model, GTAP technical paper No. 5. January
2000. 3 Kawasaki K. GTAP model analysis,
Japan-Thailand FTA and Japan-Korea FTA,
edited by Suzuki N.FTA and Food, Tsukuba
Shobou, 2005 (Japanese).