CALIFORNIA WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS CENTER

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CALIFORNIA WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH AND
APPLICATIONS CENTER

• Norman L. Miller, Principal Investigator
• Regional Climate Center, Earth Sciences Division
• Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
• University of California
• NASA/RESAC PI WORKSHOP
• Washington D.C.
• November 9, 1999

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RESEARCH AND APPLICATION TEAM

• Dr. Norman Miller - Hydrometeorologist, LBNL,
  Regional Climate Center Group Leader
• Dr. Jinwon Kim - Meteorologist, LBNL Staff
  Scientist, Regional Climate Center (RCC)
• Dr. Phaedon Kyriakidis - Geostatistician, LBNL
  Postdoctoral Scholar, RCC
• Dr. Nigel Quinn - Water Resources Engineer, LBNL
  Staff Scientist, and USBR
• Prof. William Dietrich - Geomorphologist,
  UC-Berkeley, Geology Dept. Chairman, and RCC
• Dr. Mauro Casadei - Geomorphologist, UC-Berkeley,
  Postdoctoral Scholar, Geology Dept.
• Prof. George Brimhall - Geologist,
  UC-Berkeley/Space Science Center, 2 Grad.
  Students
• Prof. James Frew - Computational Geographer,
  UC-Santa Barbara, Sch. Env. Sci. Man.
• Mr. Ryan Eldridge - GIS Specialist, San Jose
  State Univ., and RCC Graduate Fellow
• Senior Advisory Committee
• Dr. Sally Benson -Geohydrologist, LBNL Earth
  Sciences Division Director
• Prof. Inez Fung - Atmospheric Scientist,
  UC-Berkeley, Atmos. Sciences Center Director
• Dean Jeff Dozier - Computational Geographer,
  UC-Santa Barbara, Sch. Env. Sci. Man.

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COLLABORATING PARTNERSHIPS

• NOAA California-Nevada River Forecast Center NOAA
  National Weather Service-Sacramento
• NOAA NCEP Climate Prediction Center SIO
  Experimental Climate Prediction Center
• California Department of Water Resources San
  Joaquin River Management Program
• California Department of Conservation UCB Earth
  Resources Center
• California Department of Forestry and Fire
  Protection UCSB Alexandria Digital Library
• U.S. Geological Service U.S. Forest Service
• U.S. Bureau of Reclamation NOAA International
  Research Institute
• Korean Meteorological Administration Changwon
  National University, South Korea
• Queensland Department of Natural
  Resources University of Queensland, Australia
• Chinese Ministry of Water Resources Arkwright
  Insurance Company

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PROGRESS TO DATE

• Hydroclimate and streamflow modeling
• Satellite data applications - current and future
• Landslide and sediment transport measurements and
  modeling
• Identification of mine contaminants, water
  quality monitoring and modeling
• Impact assessment, reports, and workshops
• Annual progress projection, new partnerships and
  funding
• Metrics and Methodology for measuring project
  success

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HYDROCLIMATE AND STREAMFLOW MODELING

• Automated daily 3-day forecasts of the western
  U.S. posted at web site http//esd.lbl.gov/RCSM
• A eight year hindcast (1988 - 1995) simulation
  was performed and evaluated, manuscript is in
  internal review.
• Twelve CNRFC-calibrated river basins have been
  linked to the RCSM, initial verification has
  begun.
• A downscaled future climate scenario (HadCM2
  transient doubling of carbon dioxide) has been
  completed. This four year (control, 2xCO2) run
  indicates that the western U.S. may be warmer and
  wetter.

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Western US Domains at 36km and 12km Resolutions
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Quantitative Precipitation and Streamflow
Forecasts (Hopland, Russian R.)
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OBSERVED 30-YEAR PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY
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SIMULATED 8-YEAR PRECIPITATION CLIMATOLOGY
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STOCHASTIC DOWNSCALING

• Establish parametric time series models of
  environmental variables from observed records at
  monitoring station locations.
• Distribute model parameters in space, accounting
  for correlation with satellite products, e.g.
  digital elevation models or land-cover types.
• Stochastic simulation for generating alternative
  parameter realizations (maps), which reproduce
  exactly observed model parameters at station
  locations, and measures of scale-dependent
  (cross)correlation with satellite products.
• Output is a set of time series models at any
  location, used for generating alternative
  simulated records of environmental variables,
  e.g. precipitation or temperature.
• The set of alternative realizations is used for
  propagating uncertainty into impact assessment
  studies, e.g. stream-flow modeling.

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STOCHASTIC SIMULATION
Observed precipitation
Realization 1
3
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REMOTELY SENSED DATA APPLICATIONS

• AVHRR and SAR Snow Cover Area (SCA) is beginning
  to be evaluated with model snow depth. Daily SCA
  maps will be produced in collaboration with the
  Arizona RESAC and UCSB/ESSW, Snow water
  equivalent (SWE) will also be generated.
• AVHRR monthly Leaf Area Index and Green Leaf
  Fraction is used in Land-Surface model
• Digital Terrain Elevation Data is being used to
  compute hydrologic model parameters
• High resolution altimetry data is being used for
  landslide model testing
• Planning to utilize data buyback and data from
  future missions
• Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (2000
  launch) SWE
• Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (1999 launch)
  fine-scale topography
• MODIS snow cover area
• Vegetation Canopy Lidar (2000 launch) 2 year
  vegetation mapping
• Apply to the regional scale and statistically
  downscale

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LANDSLIDE AND SEDIMENT TRANSPORT MODELING

• Quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF)
  downscaled to the catchment and hillslope scale.
• Spatio-temporal distribution maps of the relative
  potential for debris flow initiation due to QPF.
• Estimations of the consequent path, potential
  size, and final depositional area of debris flows
  applied to the SHALSTAB model.
• Channel particle size distribution mapping begun,
  initial stochastic model formulated.
  Statistical-dynamical model will be developed.

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IDENTIFICATION OF MINE CONTAMINANTS

• Final development of the portable Analytical
  Spectral Device (ASD) IR and Visible
  spectrometers capability to identify weathered
  minerals that impact water quality, field testing
  at the Cerro Gordo abandoned mine site, Inyo
  Mountains, CA.
• ASD identified jarosite, geothite, and other
  iron-hydroxides that indicate the release of
  contaminants by the sulfide oxidation process.
• ASD can distinguish contaminants from the common
  mineral composing bedrock (calcite, dolomite,
  limestone, marble, quartz, shale, conglomerates,
  etc.)
• Lab development of the real-time computer program
  to automatically reduce the IR spectra for
  reconnaissance digital mapping of abandoned mine
  dumps.
• Lab verification of the IR determination of Cerro
  Gordo mine site minerals.

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WATER QUALITY MODELING AND MONITORING

• REAL-TIME SALINITY FORECASTING IN THE SAN
  JOAQUIN RIVER
• Development of a decision support system to
  communicate flow and salinity conditions in the
  San Joaquin River.
• Formation of an interagency team (LBNL, USBR,
  DWR, CRWQCB) to continue development of river
  water quality monitoring network
• Endorsement by over 20 signatories, representing
  agencies, public and private entities of a
  Memorandum of Understanding for support of the
  project
• Publication of weekly forecasts of flow and water
  quality conditions on website at
  http//wwwdpla.water.ca.gov/sid/waterquality/realt
  ime/weekly/index.html
• and through a listserver for the San Joaquin
  River since January 1999 .

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IMPACT ASSESSEMENT REPORTS AND WORKSHOPS

• The IPCC 2000 Scientific Assessment - N. Miller
  and J. Kim (Contributing Authors on regional
  modeling and impacts)
• U.S. National Assessment 2000 - N. Miller
  (Contributing Author on Mega-West Report, Coastal
  Report). Jan. 2000
• U.S. National Assessment 2000 Water Sector - N.
  Miller, J. Kim, R. Hartman (Authors to manuscript
  JAWRA Special Issue on Climate Change and Water
  Resources). Dec. 1999
• Confronting Climate Change in California
  Ecological Impacts on the Golden State, (C.
  Field, F. Davis, C. Gaines, P. Matson, J, Melack,
  and N. Miller), sponsored by the Ecological
  Society of America and the Union of Concerned
  Scientists. Nov. 1999
• California Climate, Impacts, and Information
  Workshop - Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,
  Oct. 4, 1999, Report in preparation. (N. Miller
  host)

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PROGRESS PROJECTION YEAR ONE

• Task 1. Establish western U.S. domain at 36 km
  resolution, begin western U.S. baseline
  simulation using NCEP reanalysis as hindcast, and
  prepare an expanded database.
• Task 2. Couple CNRFC basins and parameters to the
  existing land-surface module of the RCSM.
• Task 3. Begin 2xCO2 climate sensitivity data
  study using the Hadley Centres IPCC scenario.
• Task 4. Begin landslide and sediment transport
  model development.
• Task 5. Begin environmental site inventory of
  abandoned mines in the Sierra Foothills.
• Task 6. Advance water quality monitoring system
  and build Decision Support
• Task 7. Begin to link RCSM output data to NASA,
  USBR, DWR, NWS, NCEP, ESSW user interfaces.
• Task 8. Significant Results Conference October
  4, 1999

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PROGRESS PROJECTION YEAR TWO

• Task 1. Continue with tasks identified in Year 1.
• Task 2. Complete web-based user information
  system, expand and improve based on user
  feedback.
• Task 3. Evaluate western U.S. baseline simulation
  using NCEP reanalysis as hindcast.
• Task 4. Evaluate downscaled 2xCO2 climate
  sensitivity study, prepare manuscript for IPCC.
• Task 5. The landslide model will be tested as a
  hindcast using observed precipitation.
• Task 6. Abandoned mine site inventory in the
  Mojave desert will begin.
• Task 7. Significant Results Conference, expand
  user and stakeholders group.
• Task 8. NASA RESAC Progress Report.

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PROGRESS PROJECTION YEAR THREE

• Task 1. Continue with tasks from Year 1 and Year
  2.
• Task 2. Significant Results and Stakeholder
  Workshop, assess effectiveness.
• Task 3. Reports on advances to users and
  stakeholders .
• Task 4. NASA RESAC Report.
• Task 5. Generate sustainable resources for
  continuing activities.

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NEW PARTNERSHIPS AND FUNDING

• NASA/ASI Natural Hazards - CASSANDRA A storm
  based model for forecasting the initiation and
  runout of debris flows. W. Dietrich
  (UC-Berkeley), A. Howard (UV-Charlottesville), N.
  Miller (LBNL), J. Kim (LBNL), M. Casadei
  (UC-Berkeley)
• EPA/STAR - Vulnerability assessment of San
  Joaquin Basin water supply, ecological resources,
  and rural economy due to climate variability and
  extreme weather events. J. Dracup (UCLA), N.
  Miller (LBNL), N. Quinn (LBNL), R. Howitt
  (UC-Davis), L. Grober (Central Valley Regional
  Water Quality Control Board)
• CALFED - Real-Time forecasting of contaminant
  loading from the Panoche/Silver Creek watershed
  to the San Joaquin River. N. Miller (LBNL), N.
  Quinn (LBNL), M. Martin (Westside Resources
  conservation District), N. Drake (Coordinated
  Resource Management Program), F. Charles
  (McGulley, Frick, and Gillman, Inc.), C. Eacock
  (USBR)

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METRICS AND METHODOLOGY FOR MEASURING PROJECT
SUCCESS

• Successful completion of tasks
• Peer reviewed publications
• Successful simulations and monitoring of
  short-term and seasonal hydroclimate, streamflow,
  landslide, sediment transport, aquatic and
  contaminants.
• Application of satellite data to create
  value-added RESAC products
• Use of RESAC products by stakeholders and the
  general user
• New partnerships and funding