How can education contribute to the recovery

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How can education contribute to the recovery
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• Education builds social and human capital and
  creates knowledge.
• And provides people with the skills they need to
  participate in the workforce.
• So there are social and individual returns to
  education
• The best returns to education come from educating
  younger people so the costs of getting it wrong
  for youth are highest.
• And unemployment is disproportionately borne by
  the young.
• So we need a particular focus on youth.

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• Education is a major enterprise in Canterbury.
• Before the earthquakes, the Canterbury education
  sector had operating revenue of 1.31 billion and
  employed 11,000 people
• Public education organisations held about 1.32
  billion in capital assets.
• International education generated 200 million a
  year, had overall economic impact of 300 million
  and supported 2,000 jobs in the region
• Tertiary institutions won 56 million a year in
  research contracts
• Per capita, the tertiary sector in greater
  Christchurch enrolled more students than either
  Auckland or Wellington

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• In Christchurch now there are extra risks
• greater levels of disengagement from the
  education system and the labour market
• too many young people are leaving education
  without qualifications and skills
• and higher youth unemployment as the local
  economy readjusts
• rationalisation in the industries that employ
  lower-skilled people means that it will get
  harder for those without qualifications to get
  work
• the rebuild could see young people working in low
  skill jobs but vulnerable as the boom winds down
• young people need portable skills

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• We need to
• get the pathways through the education system
  working better
• build understanding by education of employer
  needs and conversely
• get more leverage from the knowledge and
  resources of our education system
• build better links between the research
  community, firms and TEIs as a means of
  supporting industry and strengthening the local
  economy

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This talk

• Looks at the state of educational achievement and
  youth transitions in the region as it was and
  is now
• Identifies the labour market outcomes for young
  people
• Explains what the education leaders in Canterbury
  are doing about it
• Describes the challenges ahead of us
• Looks at what we are coming up with in our
  renewal plan
• First Where are the young people in
  Christchurch? What are they doing?

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School leaver achievement

• Between 5,500 and 6,000 leavers each year
• About 30 dont get to level 2 the minimum for
  recognition in the labour market
• And for progression to meaningful higher
  education

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School leavers

• One in five school leavers has had no further
  training by age 20
• But double that for Maori and Pasifika
• And for those with low school achievement
• So those who need education most access it least

• The graph shows the proportion of leavers from
  Christchurch schools who dont go on to tertiary
  
• Or who go on to programmes like the Youth
  Guarantee.
• Key finding most people who have low/no school
  achievement end up not doing tertiary education

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School leaver achievement and destinations

• Big variations between schools and not all due
  to decile
• Examples ....
• In one school, only half of the 2009 leavers had
  NCEA 2 or higher
• And 15 had no achievement
• And of the no achievement leavers, 83 took no
  further education on leaving school
• High risk of being NEET

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School leaver achievement and destinations
variations between schools
Destinations for 2009 leavers Destinations for 2009 leavers Destinations for 2009 leavers Destinations for 2009 leavers
Leavers in 2009 and 2010 who don't have level 2 Leavers in 2009 and 2010 who don't have level 2 Leavers in 2009 and 2010 who don't have level 2 No education or training in 2010 No education or training in 2010 Degree education in 2010 Degree education in 2010
Number of all leavers of no attainment leavers of all leavers of NCEA 3 leavers
School 1 468 42.9 42.9 42.2 58.4 28.6 63.8
School 2 255 58.5 58.5 44.7 63.4 9.7 63.3
School 3 243 41.3 41.3 46.3 60.6 16.5 54.1
School 4 170 69.4 69.4 47.6 51.0 4.9 33.3
School 5 118 49.6 49.6 56.7 82.6 7.5 31.6
School 6 104 54.2 54.2 44.9 57.1 14.1 76.9
All Christchurch 3,535 29.6 29.6 37.5 62.0 32.5 61.0
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How well does the system supply the local labour
market?

• A high number of tertiary completions
• including industry training
• The qualification profile of the population in
  the region is lower than NZ as a whole
• More with trades qualifications, but fewer with
  degrees
• So at higher levels, Christchurch is supplying
  the Auckland and Wellington labour markets

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NEET and employment

• Until now unemployment and NEET in Christchurch
  have been better than NZ as a whole
• For all age groups
• But recent trends are worrying
• The graph shows the NEET rate for 20-24 year olds
  in the June quarters
• September NEET data looks better but Canterbury
  is still rising, while NZ is falling

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NEET and employment

• Between September 2010 and September 2011
• The number of young people in Canterbury has
  fallen by 7
• The number in employment has dropped by 22
• The number not in the labour force is up 17
• The number in education has been stable
• More in the school system balancing the fall off
  in tertiary enrolments
• Overall message more young people disengaged
  and more leaving the area

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Key messages

• The region has a skill profile little different
  from NZ as a whole
• But the region doesnt have the high skill/ high
  education/ high earnings levels of other
  metropolitan areas
• NEET, unemployment have been better than NZ as a
  whole
• But recent trends show deterioration
• Mixed performance in the school system
• Too many school leavers without adequate
  qualifications and skills
• And high levels of disparity Maori and Pasifika
  do worse
• At higher qualification levels, Christchurch
  providers supply other labour markets
• Lower tertiary enrolments in 2011 pose a high
  risk to future income streams
• While providers face higher costs

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The outlook

• The CDC/DoL forecast model sees a short-term
  construction boom to deal with the residential
  repair/rebuild
• With the commercial rebuild spread over a longer
  period
• The education system is working to improve,
  increase and speed up training for the
  construction trades
• We need to be sure
• There are sustainable careers for those we
  encourage into that pipeline
• We dont hollow out recruitment into the
  firms/industries our tradable sector depends on
• We have clear and consistent messaging about the
  forecasts, the outlook for youth and the
  importance of education

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We need

• All school leavers to have level 2 NCEA or higher
• so they have options for tertiary study
• so they are more likely to be productive, even if
  they dont want to get into tertiary study
• and so their skills are more portable
• More people getting higher qualifications in
  tertiary education
• And better tertiary/employment linkages so
  Canterbury can capture more of the skills we
  produce
• So we grow the base of skills in this community
  to ensure
• we sustain the tradable economy during the
  construction boom
• we avoid the risk of reconstruction crowding out
  the production
• those we get into construction have portable
  skills and qualifications

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What are we doing about it
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Important challenges for us

• Better pathways and transitions within
  education and between education and employment
• Getting more from Youth Guarantee and trades
  academies
• More active management of young people at risk
  with earlier intervention
• Better careers advice and support
• Better understanding of employers needs by
  education and conversely
• Leading to better alignment of supply and demand
• More leverage from the knowledge and expertise
  resources of our education system
• Better research/business/education links

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We have made progress

• More places for the trades academies and a new
  approach to make sure training is more widely
  available
• He Toki Ki Te Rika a new Maori trades training
  initiative
• Enhanced pre-tertiary bridging programmes
• Canterbury job matcher portal run by Careers NZ
• New scholarships for Canterbury school leavers
  moving to tertiary study
• Youth guarantee and vocational pathways through
  NCEA
• The Governments Skills for Canterbury package
• And coming up a new youth transition service
  for young people at risk

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We have made progress

• And NCEA results for Canterbury schools from 2011
  look promising
• Schools have faced great difficulties but have
  worked hard to manage the challenges they faced
• But be careful there may be selection effects
  at play

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But challenges remain

• We need to encourage people to stay longer in
  school, getting higher qualifications and more
  skills
• That will sustain them beyond the construction
  boom
• Reconstruction is necessary for recovery, but we
  need to keep developing the skills needed for the
  long-term growth and development of the economy
  the industries that will sustain us in the longer
  term
• We need avoid the risk that reconstruction crowds
  out the real productive sectors
• We need the active support of the business
  community

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The education renewal/recovery plan

• Possible proposals cover
• More collaboration and coordination across the
  system
• Collaboration in capital planning ? shared use of
  facilities
• Look for areas to rationalise where there is
  duplication
• Cost reductions without loss of quality
• Better education/work links
• Including employers committing to training for
  unskilled employees
• And better business/university research links
• To capture more research funding, building on our
  strengths
• Collaborative marketing of Christchurch as an
  education city
• Domestic and international
• Create a shared private tertiary campus as part
  of the rebuild
• A new approach to managing youth at risk
• Earlier intervention and better information
  sharing

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Partnership with business leaders

• Better business/education links
• If you employ a young person without skills or
  qualifications, we want you to support that
  person in training
• Internships for secondary/tertiary students?
• Make better use of local tertiary institutions
  when you recruit?
• Partnerships with local tertiary institutions
• Research contracts related to developing your
  business?
• Providing skills when you look at opportunities
  for expansion/investment?
• A private tertiary education facility an
  investment opportunity?