Clarifying the Coal Question

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Clarifying the Coal Question

• presenter Dr. Brian Davies, Physics Dept, WIU
• For a summary of this presentation with pointers
  to internet resources, see my webpage
  http//frontpage.wiu.edu/bmd111/coal.htm
• Conclusion There is much less available coal
  than commonly believed. Total carbon emissions
  will be less than IPCC figures.
• The key analytical work presented here is that of
  Prof. David Rutledge, Chair of the Division of
  Engineering and Applied Science at the California
  Institute of Technology. See http//rutledge.calt
  ech.edu/ for a video and slide presentation.
• Related figures for oil and natural gas need to
  be included for a big picture analysis. We use
  these to illustrate the Hubbert Linearization
  method of displaying production trends.

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Atmospheric CO2 has been steadily increasing
during the Anthropocene epoch (NOAA data)
From the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis
Center http//cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/co2/graphic
s/mlo145e_thrudc04.pdf
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The trend continues upward, and can be estimated
by calculations, using as an input an estimate
of the emission of carbon dioxide by human
activity. The primary source from human
activity is the combustion of fossil fuels such
as coal, petroleum and its derivative products,
and natural gas.
Where does this line trend in the future?
How much carbon is available to be burned and
how much will end up in the atmosphere?
Reference http//www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/tren
ds/
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A goal of the calculations is to estimate this
trend from basic physics.
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The American Geophysical Union has released a
statement on Human Impacts on Climate which
states that The Earth's climate is now clearly
out of balance and is warming. Many components
of the climate systemincluding the temperatures
of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of
sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the
distribution of precipitation, and the length of
seasonsare now changing at rates and in patterns
that are not natural and are best explained by
the increased atmospheric abundances of
greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human
activity during the 20th century. ... If this
2C warming is to be avoided, then our net annual
emissions of CO2 must be reduced by more than 50
percent within this century. With such
projections, there are many sources of scientific
uncertainty, but none are known that could make
the impact of climate change inconsequential.
For the full statement (and it should be
read as an entire statement) see
http//www.agu.org/sci_soc/policy/positions/clima
te_change2008.shtml
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UN Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

• The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  (IPCC) publishes assessment reports that reflect
  the consensus on climate change
• The 4th report has been released (www.ipcc.ch)
• Over one thousand authors
• Over one thousand reviewers
• Updated measurements
• Temperature rising 0.013?C per year (1956-2005)
• JPL satellite measurements indicate that sea
  level rising 3mm per year (1993-2003)

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The IPCC report envisions 40 different scenarios
with varying assumptions.
Adapted from http//rutledge.caltech.edu
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One of my major points in this talkWe need to
estimate the actual amount of carbon emissions
that could be emitted by burning known amounts
of hydrocarbons, and not just make simple
assumptions about growth rates. Fossil fuel
production has been studied since the 1800s,
notably by William Jevons in his book The Coal
Question (1865).
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William Jevons The Coal Question First
edition -1865Second edition, revised 1866
http//www.econlib.org/library/YPDBooks/Jevons/jvn
CQ.htmlhttp//www.eoearth.org/article/The_Coal_Qu
estion_e-bookfor full text PDF see
http//books.google.com/books?idnVtJUsGgLcoCThi
rd edition, revised 1906 for full text PDF see
http//books.google.com/books?idcUgPAAAAIAAJ
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The second edition included Plate I, with graphs
of the trend lines for population, imports of
coal, coal from Newcastle, and an
exponential extrapolation from the figures for
coal in the 19th century up to 1861.
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The 3rd edition was prefaced by Alfred William
Flux and included this new version of Plate I
which showed the trend line somewhat lower
because the growth rate fell from 2.5 to 2.
This received much criticism in that era (first
decade of the 20th century), but this soon met
the reality of the peak of production in the
second decade of the century.
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Jevons concludes with some difficult questions
These questions remained unanswered. Petroleum
and natural gas provided alternative sources of
energy, turning attention away from the Coal
Question.
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Historical U.S. petroleum production
Alaskan oil

• Data from the DOEs Energy Information
  Administration (EIA)
• From http//rutledge.caltech.edu

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US Crude-Oil Production cumulative plot
29Gb remaining

• EIA data (1859-2006), and graph by Rutledge
• Cumulative production assumes an ultimate of
  225Gb production
• Hubberts larger ultimate was 200 billion barrels
  (the Alaska trend is 19 billion barrels)

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Growth-Rate Plot for US Crude Oil
Trend line is for normal fit (225 billion
barrels)

• EIA data (cumulative from 1859, open symbols
  1900-1930, closed symbols 1931-2006)
• This plot shows annual production divided by
  cumulative production (vertical axis) vs.
  cumulative production (horizontal axis) (also
  known as Hubbert linearization)

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UK Oil production field by field

• Field by field analysis of UK oil production
  (data source Department of Trade and Industry
  Analysis and forecast LBST)
• from Depletion of Oil (presented at Univ.
  Salzburg, 15 July 2003)
• Werner Zittel and Jorg Schindler,
  LB-Systemtechnik GmbH, Daimlerstr. 15, D-85521
  Ottobrunn, Germany

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Norway Oil production field by field

• Norwegian oil production showing individual
  fields (data source National Petroleum
  Directorate, 2003, LBST, 2003)
• from Depletion of Oil (presented at Univ.
  Salzburg, 15 July 2003)
• Werner Zittel and Jorg Schindler,
  LB-Systemtechnik GmbH, Daimlerstr. 15, D-85521
  Ottobrunn, Germany

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Alaska Oil production field by field

• from Depletion of Oil (presented at Univ.
  Salzburg, 15 July 2003)
• Werner Zittel and Jorg Schindler,
  LB-Systemtechnik GmbH, Daimlerstr. 15, D-85521
  Ottobrunn, Germany

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USA Oil production by region

• from Depletion of Oil (presented at Univ.
  Salzburg, 15 July 2003)
• Werner Zittel and Jorg Schindler,
  LB-Systemtechnik GmbH, Daimlerstr. 15, D-85521
  Ottobrunn, Germany

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Now consider world oil production

• This method (known as Hubbert Linearization in
  some discussions) allows for an estimate of
  ultimate production (the total amount of the
  resource that will eventually be extracted from
  the ground).
• We will show the global oil production curves,
  then
• skip the display of world oil production and go
  on to
• estimate the ultimate quantity of all types of
  hydrocarbon that will be extracted (Oil, natural
  gas, and natural gas liquids, etc., but not
  liquids derived from biomass).

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Consumption has overtaken discovery, with a 40
year lag in peaks. From a talk by Albert
Bartlett, U. Colorado (retired). The
projections in this graph are outdated, so just
look at the historical data.
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Growth-Rate Plot for World Hydrocarbons
(from Rutledge)
Trend line for 3Tboe remaining

• Oil natural gas natural gas liquids like
  propane and butane
• Data 1965, 1972, 1981, 2006 BP Statistical Review
  (open 1960-1982, closed 1983-2005)
• The German resources agency BGR gives hydrocarbon
  reserves as 2.7Tboe
• Expectation of future discoveries and future OPEC
  oil reserve reductions
• Includes 500Gboe for non-conventional sources
  like Canadian oil sands

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World Hydrocarbon Production (from Rutledge)
3Tboe remaining

• Cumulative normal (ultimate production 4.6Tboe)
• IPCC scenarios assume that 11 to 15Tboe is
  available

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Coal production

• Coal resources ALL the coal underground (a huge
  resource)
• Coal reserves Coal that can be economically
  mined (much less)
• New data on coal usually results in downgrading
  of the proven reserves.
• German hard coal reserves were downgraded by 99
  percent from 23 billion tons to 0.183 billion
  tons in 2004.
• German lignite reserves have been downgraded
  drastically, which is noteworthy because Germany
  is the largest lignite producer world-wide.
• Poland downgraded its hard coal reserves by 50
  percent compared to 1997.
• Poland downgraded its lignite and subbituminous
  coal reserves in two steps since 1997 to zero.
• Some of the IPCC scenarios assumed up to 18 TBoe
  of coal would be mined and burned on a global
  basis, and we will see that estimates of
  actually-recoverable coal reserves may be around
  1.6 TBoe, much lower than assumed by the IPCC
  authors. (Even generous estimates of coal
  production yield a figure of 3.5 TBoe.)

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British Coal Production (from Rutledge)

• Data from the US National Bureau of Economic
  Research (1854-1876), the Durham Coal Mining
  Museum (1877-1956), and the British Department of
  Trade and Industry (1957-2006)
• In the peak production year, 1913, there were
  3,024 mines

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Cumulative British Coal Production (from Rutledge)
Pre-war fit
Post-war fit

• Pre-war lms fit (1854-1945, ultimate 25.6Gt, mean
  1920, sd 41 years)
• Post-war lms fit (1946-2006, ultimate 27.2Gt,
  mean 1927, sd 39 years)

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Growth-Rate Plot for British Coal (from Rutledge)

• 1854-2006, 1853 cumulative from William Jevons,
  The Coal Question
• Already near the trend line in 1854

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Reserves vs Trends for Remaining Production
Region Reserves Gt Trends Gt
North America 255 135
East Asia 190 70
Australia and New Zealand 79 50
Europe 55 23
Africa 30 10
Former Soviet Union 223 18
South Asia 111 111
Central and South America 20 20
World (at 3.6boe/t) 963 (3.5Tboe) 437 (1.6Tboe)

• North America includes trends for the East
  (40Gt), the West (25Gt), reserves for Montana
  (68Gt), and trends for Canada and Mexico (2Gt)
• IPCC scenarios assume 18Tboe is available for
  production

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Future Fossil-Fuels Production (from Rutledge)
3.0Tboe hydrocarbons remaining
1.6Tboe coal remaining

• Hydrocarbons cumulative normal (ultimate 4.6Tboe,
  lms fit for mean 2018, sd 35 years)
• 2005 coal cumulative from the 2005 BGR Energy
  Resources Report (USGS for US)
• Coal cumulative normal (ultimate 2.6Tboe, lms fit
  for mean 2024, sd 48 years)
• The standard deviations of 35 and 48 years can be
  compared to time constants for temperature and
  sea level

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Fossil-Fuel Carbon Emissions (from Rutledge)
Producer-Limited Profile
Super-Kyoto Profile
520Gt remaining

• Total fossil-fuel carbon is an input for
  climate-change models
• Carbon coefficients from the EIA oil
  (110kg/boe), gas (79kg/boe), coal (141kg/boe),
  and future hydrocarbons weighted by BGR reserves
  (98kg/boe)
• The Super-Kyoto Profile is a 50 stretch-out in
  time with the same ultimate production

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Using the work of Rutledge, a conclusion of this
talk comes by comparing with the IPCC Scenarios
Producer-Limited Profile

• The Producer-Limited profile has lower emissions
  than any of the 40 IPCC scenarios, which puts
  limits on the eventual temperature rise!
• Jean Laherrere was the first to point out this
  anomalous situation

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Conclusion The Producer-Limited profile has
lower emissions than any of the 40 IPCC
scenarios. This means that these scenarios are
probably unrealistic. Carbon availability limits
the eventual temperature rise it may be
significantly lower than the IPCC estimates.

• Rutledge web site with video and accompanying
  Powerpoint slides http//rutledge.caltech.edu/
• Dr. Rutledge has also summarized this in a web
  discussion forum http//www.theoildrum.com/node/2
  697
• CalTech has several related video presentations
  (by Hansen, etc) http//today.caltech.edu/theate
  r/list?subsetscience
• Ken Deffeyes, Hubberts Peak, in the Malpass
  library
• William Catton, Overshoot, in the Malpass library
  
• http//www.architecture2030.org/home.html

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Concluding Thoughts from Dr. Rutledge

• Results
• Estimate for future hydrocarbon production
  (3Tboe) is consistent with reserves
• Estimate for future coal production (1.6Tboe) is
  about half of reserves
• The time constants for fossil-fuel exhaustion are
  of the order of 50 years
• The time constants for temperature and sea-level
  change are of the order of 1,000 years
• Implications
• Since estimate for future fossil-fuel production
  is less than all 40 UN IPCC scenarios, producer
  limitations could provide useful constraints in
  climate modeling
• A transition to renewable sources of energy is
  likely
• To lessen the effects of climate change
  associated with future fossil-fuel use, reducing
  ultimate production is more important than
  slowing it down
• Opportunities
• One-third of US fossil-fuel reserves are on
  federal lands, so ultimate production could be
  reduced substantially by limits on new leases for
  mining and drilling
• The US has an outstanding resource in its direct
  sunlight

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from COAL RESOURCES AND FUTURE PRODUCTION
Background paper prepared by the Energy Watch
GroupMarch 2007 EWG-Series No 1/2007updated
version 10th July 2007
39
From a National Academy of Sciences report, June
2007
US coal-producing regions
40
from COAL RESOURCES AND FUTURE PRODUCTION
Background paper prepared by the Energy Watch
GroupMarch 2007 EWG-Series No 1/2007updated
version 10th July 2007
41
from COAL RESOURCES AND FUTURE PRODUCTION
Background paper prepared by the Energy Watch
GroupMarch 2007 EWG-Series No 1/2007updated
version 10th July 2007
42
from COAL RESOURCES AND FUTURE PRODUCTION
Background paper prepared by the Energy Watch
GroupMarch 2007 EWG-Series No 1/2007updated
version 10th July 2007
43
from COAL RESOURCES AND FUTURE PRODUCTION
Background paper prepared by the Energy Watch
GroupMarch 2007 EWG-Series No 1/2007updated
version 10th July 2007
44
from COAL RESOURCES AND FUTURE PRODUCTION
Background paper prepared by the Energy Watch
GroupMarch 2007 EWG-Series No 1/2007updated
version 10th July 2007
45
CO2 levels on geologic time scales were much
higher than in the paleolithic period (or now)
(present level is about 350 ppm 0.03)
R. Dudley, J. Exper. Biol.,201, 1043, 1998.