Steve Heminger Executive Director, MTC

1

• Steve HemingerExecutive Director, MTC
• West Coast Corridor CoalitionOakland, CA
• November 30, 2006

2
Commissioners

• Mary Peters Secretary of Transportation
  Chairperson
• Frank Busalacchi Wisconsin Secretary of
  Transportation
• Rick Geddes Director of Undergraduate Studies,
  Cornell University
• Steve Heminger Executive Director, Metropolitan
  Transportation Commission
• Frank McArdle General Contractors Association of
  New York
• Steve Odland Chairman and CEO, Office Depot
• Patrick Quinn Chairman, American Trucking
  Association
• Matt Rose CEO, Burlington Northern Santa Fe
  Railroad
• Jack Schenendorf Of Counsel, Covington Burling
  Vice Chair
• Tom Skancke CEO, The Skancke Company
• Paul Weyrich Chairman and CEO, Free Congress
  Foundation

3
Statutory Mandate

• Study current condition and future needs of
  surface transportation system
• Evaluate short-tem sources for Highway Trust Fund
  revenues and long-term alternatives to replace or
  supplement fuel tax
• Frame policy and funding recommendations for 15-,
  30-, and 50-year time horizons
• Report to Congress by July 1, 2007 (make that
  January 1,2008)

4
Field Hearings

• September 20-21, 2006 Dallas, TX
• November 1516, 2006 New York, NY Memphis, TN
• February 2122, 2007 Los Angeles, CA Atlanta, GA
• April 1819, 2007 Chicago, IL Minneapolis, MN

5
System Maintenance
6
Pavement Ride Quality
National Highway System for 2004
100
91
91
91
89
80
60
Acceptable
52
Good
50
40
48
39
20
0
1997
2000
2002
2004
Source U.S. DOT
7
Bridge Conditions
Bridge Deficiency Percentages
Source U.S. DOT
8
Traffic Congestion
9
Highway Operational Performance

• Percent VMT Under Congested Conditions

35
31.6
30.7
29.6
30
27.5
25.9
25
20
15
10
5
0
1995
1997
2000
2002
2004
Source U.S. DOT
10
In Congestion for At Least 40 Hours Annually
Source Texas Transportation Institute
11
Growth in Transit Ridership
23 Growth in Total Ridership from 1995 to 2004
50
40
30
20
10
0
Heavy Rail
Commuter Rail
Light Rail
Demand Response
Motorbus
Vanpool
Ferryboat
Nearly half of the growth in total Transit
Passenger Miles from 1995 to 2004 has come from
the Heavy Rail mode.
Source U.S. DOT
12
Safety
13
(No Transcript)
14
(No Transcript)
15
Safety Fatalities
Fatalities per 100 Million PMT
248 Total Transit Fatalities in 2004
Fatalities per 100 Million PMT by Mode
Source U.S. DOT
Source U.S. DOT
16
Freight
17
Dramatic Increase in U.S. Maritime Trade
Volume of trade 2004 and 2020
Source U.S. DOT
18
More trade means more domesticfreight movements
U.S. domestic freight tonnage growth forecast,
2000-2020
U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode,
2000-2020 (tons in millions)
21,682
17,296
13,772
10,700
2,891
1,470
25
2,009
9
1,054
change 2000-2020
62
44
39
181
57
Source U.S. DOT
19
Freight Tons, Value, and Ton-Miles, 2002
Trucking dominates domestic freight movement
rail is critical to the movement of bulky,
lower-value commodities and for heavy shipments
moving long distances
80
Truck
74
Rail
67
70
Water
Air
60
Pipeline
Multiple Modes
Other/Unknown Modes
50
40
40
Percent
40
30
20
16
13
9
10
7
6
6
4
3
3
3
2
1
2
lt1
1
lt1
0
0
Tons
Value
Ton-Miles
Source Bureau of Transportation Statistics and
U.S. Census Bureau, 2002 Economic Census,
Transportation, 2002 Commodity Flow Survey,
Table 1b.
20
Rail Network Today
Todays rail network has been rationalized and
downsized to a core network that is descended
directly from the 19th Century design
21
Fuel Efficiency(Energy Independence)
22
U.S. Fuel Economy for New Light-Duty Vehicles
19752004 Model Years Sales-Weighted Horsepower
and MPG
23
International Fuel Economy Comparison

• Comparison of fleet average fuel economy and GHG
  emission standards for new-sale light-duty
  vehicles

24
Finance
25
Estimated Highway and Transit Program Levels and
HTF Account Balances
Assuming Level Funding After 2009
50
Highway Program
40
30
20
Transit Program
10
Dollars (in Billions)
Transit Balance
0
-10
-20
Highway Balance
-30
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-40
Based on Presidents 2006 Budget and 2006
Budget Mid Session Review revenue estimates
26
National Funding Gap
Year
Source U.S. Chamber of Commerce
27
Fuel Tax Purchasing Power Is Eroding
20
18.3
16.2
15
14.0
12.2
Cents per Gallon
10
5
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2010
2008
2006
2004
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
Source AASHTO
28
While Construction Costs Are Increasing

• Street and highway construction costs have
  increased dramatically over the past few years

Table shows the Bureau of Labor Statistics
Producer Price Index rates over the past twenty
years as indexed
29
Private Capital is Playing Larger Role
Source U.S.DOT
30
Contact the commission atinfo_at_surfacecommission
.gov