Richard Howitt

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Water and California Agriculture Getting Through
the Next 40 Years

• Richard Howitt
• University of California, Davis
• howitt_at_primal.ucdavis.edu
• California Agricultural Summit
• Davis, Ca, February 10 2011

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Trends in California Agriculture

• Land cropping patterns are influenced by
• Economic factors
• Climatic conditions
• A Future Scenario for California agriculture, NOT
  a prediction- a set of plausible scenarios
• Driving forces Interaction among
• Market demands
• Productivity
• Water
• Salinity
• Urbanization

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(No Transcript)
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Surviving the Next 12-15 years in the Valley
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Modeling South of Delta Water Transfers

• UCD Civil Engineering feasibility analysis
• Existing facilities can sustain significant
  transfers
• Political Constraints
• Many regions lie within a single county
• East-West transfers within a county
• Preliminary Modeling
• Willing to pay between 350 - 500 per af
• Up to 45 percent reduction in impacts in some
  regions

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  HH Aqueduct HH Aqueduct HH, Don Pedro, etc HH, Don Pedro, etc HH, Don Pedro, etc  
   
  KINGS  
  New Melones New Melones TOLUOMNE TOLUOMNE MERCED MERCED Millerton Dam Millerton Dam Millerton Dam KAWEAH  
  COWCHILLA COWCHILLA  
  FRESNO TULE  
   
  STANISLAUS STANISLAUS FRIANT KERN CANAL FRIANT KERN CANAL FRIANT KERN CANAL (267 TAF/month) (267 TAF/month) (267 TAF/month)  
  Madera  
  59 TAF/mo 59 TAF/mo  
   
   
  KERN RIVER KERN RIVER  
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
  SAN JOAQUIN RIVER SAN JOAQUIN RIVER SAN JOAQUIN RIVER  
  Fleenor wasteway Fleenor wasteway Fleenor wasteway Westley wasteway Westley wasteway Westley wasteway Newman wasteway Newman wasteway Newman wasteway  
  (261 TAF/month ) (261 TAF/month ) (261 TAF/month ) (255 TAF/month) (255 TAF/month) (255 TAF/month)  
   
   
   
   
   
  273 TAF/month 273 TAF/month  
  DELTA MENDOTA CANAL DELTA MENDOTA CANAL DELTA MENDOTA CANAL DELTA MENDOTA CANAL  
   
   
   
   
  From San Luis Rerservoir From San Luis Rerservoir From San Luis Rerservoir  
 
  48 TAF/month 48 TAF/month  
  CROSS VALLEY CANAL CROSS VALLEY CANAL CROSS VALLEY CANAL  
   
   
   
   
   
  778 TAF/month 778 TAF/month 778 TAF/month  
  STATE WATER PROJECT CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT STATE WATER PROJECT CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT STATE WATER PROJECT CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT STATE WATER PROJECT CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT STATE WATER PROJECT CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT STATE WATER PROJECT CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT  
  STATE WATER PROJECT CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT STATE WATER PROJECT CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT STATE WATER PROJECT CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT STATE WATER PROJECT CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT STATE WATER PROJECT CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT STATE WATER PROJECT CALIFORNIA AQUEDUCT TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA  
   
  COASTAL AQUEDUCT COASTAL AQUEDUCT COASTAL AQUEDUCT  
   
  STATEWIDE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION MODEL (SWAP) STATEWIDE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION MODEL (SWAP) STATEWIDE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION MODEL (SWAP) STATEWIDE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION MODEL (SWAP) STATEWIDE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION MODEL (SWAP) STATEWIDE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION MODEL (SWAP) STATEWIDE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION MODEL (SWAP) STATEWIDE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION MODEL (SWAP) STATEWIDE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION MODEL (SWAP) STATEWIDE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION MODEL (SWAP) STATEWIDE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION MODEL (SWAP) STATEWIDE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION MODEL (SWAP) STATEWIDE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION MODEL (SWAP)   LEGEND LEGEND      
  Study on San Joaquin and Tulare Water Markets Study on San Joaquin and Tulare Water Markets Study on San Joaquin and Tulare Water Markets Study on San Joaquin and Tulare Water Markets Study on San Joaquin and Tulare Water Markets Study on San Joaquin and Tulare Water Markets Study on San Joaquin and Tulare Water Markets Study on San Joaquin and Tulare Water Markets Study on San Joaquin and Tulare Water Markets Study on San Joaquin and Tulare Water Markets Study on San Joaquin and Tulare Water Markets Study on San Joaquin and Tulare Water Markets Study on San Joaquin and Tulare Water Markets          
                                FEDERAL PROJECT FEDERAL PROJECT    
  RICHARD E. HOWITT RICHARD E. HOWITT RICHARD E. HOWITT RICHARD E. HOWITT RICHARD E. HOWITT RICHARD E. HOWITT RICHARD E. HOWITT RICHARD E. HOWITT RICHARD E. HOWITT RICHARD E. HOWITT RICHARD E. HOWITT RICHARD E. HOWITT RICHARD E. HOWITT            
  JAY R. LUND JAY R. LUND JAY R. LUND JAY R. LUND JAY R. LUND JAY R. LUND JAY R. LUND JAY R. LUND JAY R. LUND JAY R. LUND JAY R. LUND JAY R. LUND JAY R. LUND   STATE PROJECT STATE PROJECT    
  JOSUE MEDELLIN-AZUARA JOSUE MEDELLIN-AZUARA JOSUE MEDELLIN-AZUARA JOSUE MEDELLIN-AZUARA JOSUE MEDELLIN-AZUARA JOSUE MEDELLIN-AZUARA JOSUE MEDELLIN-AZUARA JOSUE MEDELLIN-AZUARA JOSUE MEDELLIN-AZUARA JOSUE MEDELLIN-AZUARA JOSUE MEDELLIN-AZUARA JOSUE MEDELLIN-AZUARA JOSUE MEDELLIN-AZUARA            
  DUNCAN MACEWAN DUNCAN MACEWAN DUNCAN MACEWAN DUNCAN MACEWAN DUNCAN MACEWAN DUNCAN MACEWAN DUNCAN MACEWAN DUNCAN MACEWAN DUNCAN MACEWAN DUNCAN MACEWAN DUNCAN MACEWAN DUNCAN MACEWAN DUNCAN MACEWAN   NATURAL STREAMFLOW NATURAL STREAMFLOW    
                                       
  DRAFT MARCH 2009 DRAFT MARCH 2009 DRAFT MARCH 2009 DRAFT MARCH 2009 DRAFT MARCH 2009 DRAFT MARCH 2009 DRAFT MARCH 2009 DRAFT MARCH 2009 DRAFT MARCH 2009 DRAFT MARCH 2009 DRAFT MARCH 2009 DRAFT MARCH 2009 DRAFT MARCH 2009     INTAKES      
                                       
                             
   
                                                                                         
 
CVPM 12
CVPM 11
CVPM 13
CVPM 17
CVPM 16
CVPM 20
CVPM 18

CVPM 21
CVPM 19
CVPM 14
CVPM 15
CVPM 10
 
 
 
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Paying for an Isolated Delta Facility
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Combined Delta Water Export Demand ( 2007)
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Exceedence for an Isolated Facility
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The Cost of Salinity Effects
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Relative Change in the Shallow Groundwater
Table (0.46 - 0.58 /pa-- Shoups 2004).
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Saline Affected Areas (DWR 2001)
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(No Transcript)
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Urbanization Effects in the Valley
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Urban Land Use 1998 (Landis and Reilly)
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Urban Land Use 2020 (Landis and Reilly)
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Urban Land Use 2050 (Landis and Reilly)
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Effects of Climate Warming
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Climate Induced Yield Change
Crop Groups Sacramento San Joaquin
Alfalfa 4.9 7.5
Citrus 1.77 -18.4
Corn -2.7 -2.5
Cotton 0.0 -5.5
Field -1.9 -3.7
Grain -4.8 -1.4
Orchards -9.0 -9.0
Pasture 5.0 5.0
Grape -6.0 -6.0
Rice 0.8 -2.8
Tomato 2.4 1.1
Truck Crops -11.0 -11.0
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Percent Reduction in Optimized Water Deliveries
Region Agriculture Urban Total
Sacramento 24.3 0.1 19.1
San Joaquin 22.5 0.0 17.6
Tulare 15.9 0.0 13.5
Southern California 25.9 1.12 8.9
Total 21.0 0.7 14.0
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Runoff, Deliveries, Land Use and Revenues 2050
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2050 Outlook Under Climate Warming
Predicted yield reduction in perennial and annual
crops, with the exception of fodder crops. Water
shortages will be the key resource through which
climate change impacts will be felt in
California Adaptation to climate change will
depend on innovative research and resource
management methods. Statewide irrigated acreage
reductions average 20.5 2050 real agricultural
revenues will increase over 2005 levels by 25
despite reductions in land and water
use. Websites http//swap.ucdavis.edu/,
http//cee.engr.ucdavis.edu/faculty/lund/CALVIN/