Data Analysis, Probability, Predictions,

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Data Analysis, Probability, Predictions,
Proportions
Its Probably Raining Fractions
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs by Judi Barrett
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Its Probably Raining Fractions
Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs by Judi Barrett
Arkansas 4th grade SLEs DAP. 16.4.1 Make
predictions for a given set of data DAP. 17.4.1
Use fractions to predict probability of an
event DAP. 17.4.2 Conduct simple probability
experiments, record the data and draw conclusions
about the likelihood of possible outcome
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• During the month of April the head meteorologist
  for the town of Chewandswallow tried to forecast
  or predict the weather for the entire month so
  the citizens would know whether they would need
  spoons or forks each day. Because of what
  happened last year in April, he prepared for pea
  soup and spaghetti.

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April Last Year Find the fractions!
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1 Pea soup 2 Spaghetti 3 Spaghetti 4 Pea soup
5 Spaghetti 6 Spaghetti 7 Pea soup 8 Spaghetti 9 Pea soup 10 Pea soup 11 spaghetti
12 Spaghetti 13 Pea soup 14 Pea soup 15 Pea soup 16 Pea soup 17 Spaghetti 18 Spaghetti
19 Spaghetti 20 Pea soup 21 Pea soup 22 Pea soup 23 Spaghetti 24 Pea soup 25 Pea soup
26 Spaghetti 27 Spaghetti 28 Spaghetti 29 Pea soup 30 Spaghetti
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Group Findings

• Did it rain pea soup more or less than 1/2 of the
  month? How do you know?
• How many days did it rain spaghetti on your April
  calendar?
• As a fraction, how can you say and write the
  number of days in April it rained spaghetti?

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Drawing Conclusions

• Which fraction best describes the probability of
  it raining spaghetti in April? Why?
• If the weather were similar to April for the
  entire year, how many days would you expect it to
  rain pea soup?
• How might your simulation and the results change
  for the month of February?
• Why is the probability of raining spaghetti and
  pea soup on the same day 0?

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Think about it..
Whats the Theoretical probability
If the years are similar, what's the
"Theoretical" probability for Pea Soup or
Spaghetti this April?
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Experiment..
Find the Experimental probability

• Use a random drawinga spinnera die a coin that
  will accurately represent what happened last
  April.
• Did the experiment turn out like you thought it
  would?
• Is everyones the same?
• What do you think will happen
  if we compile all the data?

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November Last Year
Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat
1 Spaghetti
2 Pea soup 3 Spaghetti 4 Spaghetti 5 Pea soup 6 Pea soup 7 Spaghetti 8 Spaghetti
9 Spaghetti 10 Spaghetti 11 Spaghetti 12 Spaghetti 13 Spaghetti 14 Pea soup 15 Spaghetti
16 Pea soup 17 Spaghetti 18 Pea soup 19 Spaghetti 20 Pea soup 21 Spaghetti 22 Spaghetti
23 Pea soup Spaghetti 30 24 Spaghetti 25 Spaghetti 26 Pea soup 27 Spaghetti 28 Pea soup 29 Spaghetti
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More Group Findings

• Did it rain pea soup more or less than 1/3 of the
  month? How do you know?
• How many days did it rain spaghetti on your
  November calendar?
• As a fraction, how can you say and write the
  number of days in November it rained spaghetti?

If the years are similar, what's the
"Theoretical" probability for this November?
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Experiment..
Find the Experimental probability

• Participants will conduct an experiment of this
  Novembers weather
• Can you use a random drawing?
• Can you use a spinner?
• Can you use a die?
• Can you flip a coin?

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More Conclusions

• On the November spinner, which food has a
  probability closer to 1? Explain.
• Why is raining spaghetti more probable than
  raining pea soup for the November spinner?
• For the fractions describing the chances for
  raining a certain food, will the numerator ever
  be larger than the denominator? Explain.