Please do not quote or reproduce without permission

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Conflict Analysis May 17, 2006
Please do not quote or reproduce without
permission
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Why conflict analysis?

• The Bank aims at promoting economic growth and
  poverty reduction through assistance that
  minimizes potential causes of conflict
• (Operational Policy on Development Cooperation
  and Conflict)
• Sensitivity to conflict in Bank assistance
• A need to understand factors that affect conflict
  when developing strategies, policies and programs

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Why conflict analysis?

• Increase sensitivity to conflict in strategies,
  policies and programs
• Identify and understand drivers and dynamics of
  conflict escalation and de-escalation
• Understand linkages between conflict and
  poverty
• Basis for strengthened resiliency to conflict
  escalation via appropriate development
  strategies and interventions

Conflict Analysis Framework
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Conflict Analysis Framework (CAF)

• Quick screening on 9 indicators to determine
  conflict analysis need
• Full CAF analysis of some 30 variables in
  different socioeconomic categories, adapted to
  local context
• Policy recommendations and programmatic
  implications

Conflict Analysis Framework
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Conflict Analysis Framework
Six categories of variables
Conflict Analysis Framework
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Conflict Analysis Framework

• Examples of variables used in conflict analysis
• ethnic cleavages
• regional imbalances
• inclusiveness of political institutions
• militarization of society
• economic growth
• per capita income changes
• access to natural resources
• role of diaspora

Conflict Analysis Framework
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Conflict Analysis Framework

• Variables analyzed in local context on
• history/changes
• dynamics/trends
• public perceptions
• politicization
• organization
• link to poverty
• effects on conflict escalation and
  de-escalation

Conflict Analysis Framework
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Different CAF Formats

• Limited or comprehensive design
• Conducted alone or with partners
• Discrete analysis or part of wider work
• Public dissemination or internal use
• At the Bank 14 countries subject to conflict
  analysis, variety of design and process formats

Conflict Analysis Framework
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Conflict Analysis at the Bank

• Comprehensive stand-alone analyses Nigeria,
  Somalia, Sri Lanka
• Limited stand-alone analyses CAR, Burundi,
  Venezuela
• Limited conflict analysis as part of other work
  Chad, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau, Angola
• Other macro analyses with attention to conflict
  Haiti, West Bank and Gaza

Conflict Analysis Framework
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Challenges in conflict analysis

• Constraints of time, funding, capacity
• Security and access during field work
• Relationship to host government
• Application of findings and recommendations in
  operations

Conflict Analysis Framework
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Way forward in conflict analysis

• Briefer analyses often sufficient
• Many benefits from multi-agency analyses
• Country anchoring important
• Maintain conflict analysis rigor even when
  conflict is not main focus
• Conflict analysis should include operational
  application of findings and recommendations, not
  end with dissemination

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Operational implications

• Based on the analysis
• What kind of strategy and interventions would
  have a positive effect on the conflict situation
  (i.e. help reduce tension strengthen countrys
  resilience to conflict escalation)?
• What kind of strategy / interventions should we
  avoid ?