Aviation in Transition Challenges and Opportunities of Liberalisation The Future of Liberalisation Professor Ian Poll Director Cranfield College of Aeronautics

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Aviation in TransitionChallenges and
Opportunities of LiberalisationThe Future of
LiberalisationProfessor Ian Poll Director
Cranfield College of Aeronautics
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The Father of the Aeroplane

• Sir George Cayley (1773 1857)

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Why was Cayley interested in flight?

• He recognised that the industrial revolution
  needed transportation to bring raw materials to
  the factories and to take the products to market.
• He saw clearly that road, rail and sea were
  limited.
• However transport by air would remove many of
  the limitations of the other modes and would
  bring huge economic benefits

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Issues

• After 100 years there is now a clear divergence
  of civil and military aviation.
• Civil aircraft are now treated as commodities
  airframe is no longer a major target for research
• Technology is now just as important on the ground
  as it is in the air

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The Drivers

• Economy
• Safety
• Security
• Environment
• Cheaper, Safer and Cleaner

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Technology to reduce costs

• Health and usage monitoring only service the
  aircraft when absolutely necessary
• New air traffic solutions cut out waste
• De-skilling piloting and ATM tasks reduce cost
  of staff
• Better use of IT to reduce cost of sales, links
  with supply chain etc
• More efficient training methods

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Technology to improve safety

• Reduce piloting intervention 80 of accidents
  involve human error
• Use of virtual reality to overcome physical
  difficulties e.g. all round vision, poor weather
  visibility
• ATM systems that separate aircraft rather than
  bunch them together
• More effective training systems

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Technology to improve security

• Ability to screen for weapons and explosives
• Internationally linked data bases for rapid
  identification of undesirable individuals
• Designated no go areas built into flight
  control systems

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Technology to protect the environment

• Use of fuel cells to provide aircraft electrical
  power on the ground
• Proper treatment of runoff water and better
  disposal of unpleasant substances both at the
  airport and in the manufacturing and disposal
  processes
• Better multi-modal linking to reduce congestion

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The real problem is at 35,000

• Growth rates of 5-6 will result in a 4 fold
  increase fuel burn in the next 25 years
• Can anyone believe that this could (or should)
  be allowed to happen?

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My conclusion is that aviation, as we know it
today, is probably non- sustainable. What is
the path for future development?
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Is it this?
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Or is it this?
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Blended Wing Body
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BWB versus Conventional

• With fully turbulent flow L/D better by up to 30
  (better than a conventional aircraft with a
  laminar flow wing)
• Fuel burn per passenger seat mile up 25 (needs
  bigger engine)
• With laminar flow BWB has an L/D 4 times larger
  than a conventional a/c)
• These advantages are going to become hard to
  ignore

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Conclusions

• Technology has been used to solve many challenges
  over the past 50 years
• Emerging technologies can solve many of todays
  issues. They can help deliver the new way for
  aviation and they can produce new business
  opportunities for a liberalised industry
• Most importantly, technology holds the key to
  the long term sustainability of civil aviation