Dr. Jonathan Harrington

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• Dr. Jonathan Harrington
• Associate Professor of International Relations
• Troy University

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• Talking Points
• I. Japan An Introduction
• II. Evolution of Japans US-centered Pacifist
  Security Regime
• III. Japans Soft Power Strategy
• IV. Post Cold War Period Japan Moves Towards
  Normalcy
• V. Japan at a Crossroads Future Security Options

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• I. Japan An Introduction
• Despite Chinas rise, Japan remains
• the preeminent economic and
• naval power in Asia.
• Population 128,000,000
• Population gr. -.05
• Area 145,894 sq. mi.
• Life Expectancy 85 (F) 78 (M)
• GDP 4.7 trillion USD
• GNI 39,000
• Trade balance 96 bln USD
• Political system Const. monarchy
• Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda
• Sources World Bank, Economist (2006)

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• Japanese Military Selected Statistics (2006)
• Major Naval Vessels
• Class Number (vessels) Standard
  Displacement (1,000 tons)
• Destroyer 53 205
• Submarine 16 42
• Mine warfare ship 31 27
• Patrol combat craft 9 1
• Amphibious ship 13 29
• Auxiliary ship 29 123
• Total 151 428
•  
• Combat Aircraft Number
• F-15 J/DJ 203
• F-4 EJ 91
• F-1 7
• F-2 A/B 68
• Total 369
•  Military budget Approx imately50 bln. USD

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• II. Evolution of Japans US-centered Pacifist
  Security Regime
• Since the end of WWII, relations with the US have
  dominated Japanese foreign policy.
• Article 9 of Japans US-imposed constitution
  (1947) states that the Japanese people forever
  renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation
  and the threat of the use of force as a means for
  settling international disputes.
• It also states that land, sea and air forces, as
  well as other war potential, will never be
  maintained. The right of the belligerency of the
  state will not be recognized. (English Japanese
  translations allowed flexibility in
  interpretation)
• Japan officially created its own Self Defense
  Force in 1954.
• Japans 1957 Basic Principles for National
  Defense further define the militarys limited
  role in Japanese foreign policy (defense and
  peacekeeping).
• These changes have had the following practical
  effects on Japans security posture
• Japans military spending has been limited to 1
  of GDP and its armed forces number around
  250,000.
• Japan has traditionally been prohibited from
  having offensive weapons.

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• Japan is also restrained in its ability to export
  arms to other countries.
• It embraces the NPTs three nuclear principles
  which prohibit production, import or storage of
  nuclear weapons.
• Japan became dependent on the US for most
  military procurement needs.
• The lack of a large military kept a strong
  military-industrial complex from developing.
• Most Japanese supported Article 9. Pacifism has
  traditionally been politically important in
  Japan.
• The ruling LDP largely complied with
  Constitutional limitations.
• Historical memories of the scars of WWI I and
  organized political groups helped to maintain
  this pacifism (Japan Communist Party, Japan
  Socialist Party, Soka Gakkai New Komeito Party).

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• Until relatively recently, the United States also
  favored limited development of Japanese offensive
  capabilities.
• The US occupied Japan from 1945-52 and Okinawa
  until 1972. The 1960 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation
  and Security and the Japanese Constitution
  solidified Japans relationship with the US and
  its military limitations.
• This relationship was reinforced by the 1978
  Guiding Principles of Japanese-American Defense
  Cooperation which states that Japan should
  provide conditions favorable to fostering US
  military operations aimed at defending Japan.

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• III. Japans soft power strategy.
• The US-Japan defense relationship allowed Japan
  to focus on economic development (Yoshida
  Doctrine).
• During the Cold War, Japan expanded its soft
  power in the Region.
• ODA was increased.
• Japanese multinationals dominated SE Asian trade
  and investment.
• Poorer East Asian states became resource and
  manufacturing bases for Japanese corporations.

• Japan became the main source for high tech
  products and knowhow in the Region.

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• Japan used its economic might to attempt to buy
  friends in the Region.
• Since the early 1970s, Japan has provided tens of
  billions of USD in ODA and investment to China.
• Until recently, Japan was S. Koreas largest
  trading partner.
• However, while trade and aid have increased along
  with economic interdependence, most Asian states
  remain worried about Japans intentions and
  historical legacy.

• .

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories
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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• Japan also supported multilateral institutions.
• Japan became the second biggest contributor to
  the UN operating budget.
• Japan funded the work of major UN agencies
  including UNDP, UNEP, WHO, UNU, UNICEF etc.
• Japan promoted participation in regional
  multilateral organizations including ASEAN 3,
  ARF, APEC etc. and later the Six Party Nuclear
  Talks

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• IV. Post Cold War Period Japan Moves Towards
  Normalcy
• During the Cold War, Japans place in US
  containment policy ensured that the US would come
  to its aid in the event of an attack.
• The end of the Cold War created a more uncertain
  atmosphere. PM Nakasone addressed this new
  reality by stating that while Japan should not
  aspire to be a major military power, it should
  amend its Constitution to allow it to share the
  burdens of maintaining collective security in the
  world.
• Having armed forces allows peaceful countries to
  defend peace and help deter aggression.
• He also stated that since the Constitution was
  imposed from outside, the Japanese people had a
  right and responsibility to change it to fit
  their own needs. There was much debate about this
  change in attitude about Article 9.

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• There were a number of other events that have
  influenced Japans move away from pacifism.
• Gulf War I put pressure on Japan to increase its
  participation in UN mandated collective security
  activities.
• This pressure led to passage of the Law on
  Cooperation with the UN Peacekeeping Forces in
  1991. This law allowed deployment of forces for
  UN peacekeeping, but limited their activities to
  non-lethal support roles.
• This opened opportunities for Japanese forces to
  monitor elections, provide humanitarian
  assistance, carry out evacuations and provide
  logistical support and reconstruction services in
  non-combat areas.
• Japan has participated in peacekeeping missions
  in Cambodia, Angola, Mozambique, Golan Heights,
  Rwanda and others.

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• The five principles that guided deployments
  included
• 1. an agreement must be reached between
  conflicting sides on a permanent cease fire or
  temporary halt to hostilities
• 2. the conflicting sides consented to the
  activity of UN forces and Japans participation
• 3. Neutrality was observed, which did not permit
  supporting of one of the conflicting sides
• 4. Japan retained the right to independently
  recall its contingent if any of these conditions
  were not implemented
• 5. and the use of weapons was kept to a minimum
  (59).

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• Another event that influenced relations was the
  signing of the Japanese-American Joint Security
  Declaration in 1996.
• This agreement reinforced the significance of the
  US-Japan Security Treaty. It also states that
  responsibilities of signatories should be
  symmetrical and operations should include areas
  in and around Japan not just the Japanese
  mainland.
• Another agreement, the New Guiding Principles,
  more clearly defined this relationship in 1997
  and is more specific about coordination,
  cooperation and joint action.
• Japan passed another new law, the Law on
  Self-Defense Forces to allow for operations
  around Japan and participation in rear support
  activities related to offensive operations.
• At the time, PM Hashimoto also made it clear that
  the agreement extended to Taiwan.
• These changes were partly made possible by the
  accelerated decline of leftist elements in both
  the LDP and the Socialist and Communist Parties.
  The LDP formed a number of special committees to
  study Constitutional reform. Constitutional
  change requires a 2/3 vote in the Diet and a
  national referendum.

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• Emerging perceived external threats also drove
  this process.
• The DPRKs launch of a satellite/missile in 1998
  revealed defensive vulnerabilities.
• Relations with China have deteriorated, partly
  because of Japans unwillingness to apologize for
  past Japanese actions in WWII.
• Chinas military buildup is also a concern.
• China continues to threaten military retaliation
  if Taiwan declares independence, which could pull
  Japan towards war if the US assists Taiwan.
• Territorial disputes (Senkaku, Takeshima, Kuril)
  remain unresolved.

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• US pressure also pushed Japan to step up its
  support for AWOT.
• The War on Terror is seen as a direct threat to
  Japanese security.
• In 2001, Japan enacted legislation that allowed
  it to support American military actions in
  Afghanistan.
• This law, the Anti-Terrorism Special Measures
  Law, was sold as a temporary measure, but its
  renewal has become routine.

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• However, the LDP was careful to not totally break
  with Article 9, by limiting the scope of support
  operations.
• It states that Japan must not constitute the
  threat of use of force, shall be implemented on
  the high seas or on the territory of a foreign
  state only in cases where consent from countries
  has been obtained, it is controlled by the Prime
  Minister and is carried out in cooperation with
  other relevant government agencies.
• It also requires the PM to report any support
  activities to the Diet. It also allows the SDF to
  guard American troops from threats from terrorist
  attacks.
• Both the SDJ and JCP believed that these changes
  openly violated Article 9. However, they did not
  have the votes necessary to change the
  legislation.
• The legislation was adopted by a largely party
  line vote, which shows that there is still a lack
  of consensus about Japans progress towards
  becoming a more normal country.
• Opposition groups believe that the new policies
  are contrary to the Yoshida Doctrine (1956).

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• For his part, PM Koizumi was careful to
  acknowledge the letter, if not the spirit of
  Article 9.
• Other amendments to the Law on Cooperation with
  UN Peacekeeping Forces have also expanded the
  role of the military. The new amendments allow
  Japanese forces to monitor truces, deploy in
  buffer zones, interdict ships etc.
• Japans participation in the Iraq conflict was
  driven by Koizumis belief that participation was
  necessary to maintain the Japanese-American
  alliance.
• Public opinion was not supportive of this action,
  but the weakness of opposition groups allowed the
  LDP to move ahead with the deployments.
• In 2003, the Law on Special Measures to Support
  the Restoration of Iraq was passed. It states
  that this is consistent with UN Security Council
  Resolutions calling for cooperation in restoring
  Iraq.
• It allows Japanese forces to actively maintain
  security by providing rear support to US
  offensive forces. It has a time limit of 4 years.

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• Renewal of the legislation supporting the US led
  coalition was scheduled for November 2007.
• Recent elections placed the opposition party, the
  Democratic Party of Japan (Minshuto), in a
  position to block passage of the legislation.
• It is unclear whether Japans new Prime Minister,
  Yasuo Fukuda, will be able to force passage of
  the bill. As of 12/07, the legislation had not
  been renewed.

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• The DPJ asserts that
• 1) the DPJs opposition to the deployment had
  been a consistent party position since the
  legislation was first proposed to the Diet in
  2003,
• 2) the DPJ and Minshuto President Ozawa are firm
  believers in the importance of the Japan-US
  alliance
• 3) Japans military operations overseas are
  currently restricted by the US-inspired Japanese
  Constitution, and
• 4) the DPJ wishes to find ways to fulfill its
  international obligations without having to
  override the Constitution.
• In short, the DPJ favors a more UN based
  diplomacy and opposes major changes to Article 9.
  This is consistent with Japanese public opinion.

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• V. Japan at a Crossroads Future Security Options
• Up to now, Japan has been moving away from single
  country pacifism. Continued dominance of the LDP
  under Koizumi solidified this trend.
• However, this trend is not set in stone. New
  political actors have entered the scene.
• The Japanese public is beginning to turn away
  from rightist extremist groups.
• Some future security options for Japan include
• Develop normal status and become an active ally
  of the US regionally and globally (ex. UK).
• Develop normal status as a strong independent
  actor and move away from US influence, possibly
  develop an independent nuclear deterrent and
  military-industrial complex.
• Develop a UN centered security approach largely
  independent of US influence, expand offensive
  capabilities and military participation in robust
  peacekeeping activities (ex. Sweden).
• Reinforce pacifist tendencies, move away from US
  influence, do not develop offensive military
  capabilities, focus on soft power and conflict
  prevention.
• Others?

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Japans Security Dilemma Future Trajectories

• For More Information
• Denny, Roy. 2004. Disapproving Dragon Japans
  Growing Security Activity and Sino-Japan
  Relations. Asian Affairs An American Review.
  31 2, 101.
• Fukushima, Akiko. 1999. Japanese Foreign Policy
  The Emerging Logic of Multilateralism. London
  St. Martins Press.
• Global Security. Japanese Military
  Backgrounder. http//www.globalsecurity.org/milit
  ary/world/japan/jda.htm.
• Japan Ministry of Defense website
  http//www.mod.go.jp/e/index.html.
• Katzenstein and Okawara. Japan and Asian-Pacific
  Security. In Suh, J.J., Peter Katzenstein and
  Allen Carson (eds.) (2004). Rethinking Security
  in East Asia Identity, Power and Efficiency.
  Palo Alto Stanford University Press.
• Senatorov, Alexei. 2004. Japan From
  Single-Country Pacifism to a Normal Country? Far
  Eastern Affairs. 321, 55.
• Tamamoto, Masaru. 2005. How Japan Imagines China
  and Sees Itself. World Policy Journal. 22 4,
  55.