16th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum

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16th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum
Ready Set. Go !!! The Multi-Family Market
is Coming Back
Tampa Westshore Marriott Hotel December 8th ,
2010 Sponsored by
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HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS
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SINGLE FAMILY PERMIT TRENDS
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MULTIFAMILY PERMIT TRENDS
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OCCUPANCY TRENDS
triad
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RENTAL PRICING TRENDS
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2010 TAMPA BAY AREAPIPELINE NEW CONSTRUCTION
REPORT
UC Lease Up UC Lease Up Planned 2011 2012 Planned 2011 2012 Proposed ON-HOLD Proposed ON-HOLD
MARKET Dev Units Dev Units Dev Units
Hills 12 3,508 10 2,402 2 558
Pinellas 6 1,159 3 780 2 308
Pasco 3 923 2 496 5 1,522
Polk 5 1,606 0 0 2 672
Manatee 0 0 1 272 2 294
Sarasota 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bay Area 26 7,196 16 3,950 13 3,354
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BAY AREA PIPELINE
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HILLSBOROUGH PIPELINE
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PINELLAS PIPELINE
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PASCO PIPELINE
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POLK PIPELINE
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RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND
NEW DYNAMICS OF THE ECONOMY IMPACT THE
METHODOLOGIES OF PROJECTING RENTER
DEMAND SUPPLY LACK OF SUPPLY LIMITED NEW
CONSTRUCTION INCOMES ADJUSTED HH INCOMES - JOB
LOSS (REDUCED HH INCOME) SAVINGS LOSS -
CREDIT LOSS CONSUMERS ADJUSTED HOUSING CHOICES
INCOME DRIVEN CHANGE FORECLOSURES SHORT
SALES THEORY PREVIOUS METHODOLOGIES OF POP/HH
GROWTH, JOB GROWTH, NEW INVENTORY GROWTH ARE
NOT CURRENTLY ACCURATE OR VALID. NEW DYNAMICS
ARE KEEPING DEMAND STRONG ONLY CURRENT VIABLE
METHODOLOGY IS ACTUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE.
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BAY AREA MULTIFAMILY TRENDS
HIL VACANT LAND OPPS IN BRANDON SOUTH COUNTY
ACTIVE NEW CONS IN BRANDON WESTSHORE TAMPA
PALMS 221 (d)(4)s ACTIVE - REVS COMPLETE,
MARKET RECOVERY MODERATE PIN ONLY CONS IN GATEWAY
URBAN ST PETE 221 (D)(4) LARGO CLRWTR
RESTABILIZING, MARKET RECOVERY MODERATE PAS ONLY
ACTIVE NEW CONS SR 54/56 NEW DEMAND EXPANDING
OUT OF DISTRESSED DRIs OPP IN MID COUNTY
WESLEY CHAPLE - MARKET RECOVERY ABOVE
AVERAGE POL LAND AVAIL/AFFORD FOR FUTURE PIPELINE
NO NEW CONS - NO ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME DUE LOW
OCC NEGATIVE RENT GROWTH MAN LAND AVAIL
DEMAND LIMITED FOR FUTURE DEV BENEFIT FROM
SOUTHWARD HILLS EXPANSION PINELLAS BUILDOUT IN
THE FUTURE ACTIVITY IN LWR ATTHIS TIME
MARKET RECOVERY MODERATE SAR NEW CONST ALL BUT
STOPPED REVS IN RECOVERY LAND EXPENSIVE
MOST ACTIVITY IN ACQUISITIONS OCC RENT GROWTH
MODERATE GLOBAL TRENDS NEW CONST SLOWED BY
FINANCINT - DEMAND GROWING DUE TO DISTRESS SF
ECONOMIC TIMES - RECOVERY TO 94-95 IN 6 TO 12
FORECLOSURES JOB CHANGES CREATING NEW DEMAND
EMPLOY DOWN REGION STRONGER THAN MOST OF
FLORIDA - FINANCING THE CHALLENGE PLAYERS W/
WILL PLAY VULTURE CAPITALISTS ARE CIRCLING
OVERHEAD FOR ACQ _at_ 50 FOR REPOSITIONING
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16th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum
THANK YOU
Sponsored by