As Perspectivas de Combust

1
As Perspectivas de Combustíveis Líquidos
Alternativos no Mundo

• Seminário Perspectivas Energéticas para América
  Latina
• 18 de Outubro de 2004 (UNICAMP)
• Dr. Francisco Rosillo-Calle
• Imperial College London
• (University of London)

2
RESUMO

• O papel da indústria do automóvel
• Mudanças/implicações
• Os grandes desafios
• Cenários- ER
• Cenários transporte
• Combustíveis principais no mundo
• Gasolina, diesel, sintéticos, gás natural,
  etanol, biodiesel, metanol, biogás, bio-óleo,
  hidrogênio, DME, ETBE, células combustíveis

3
The Role of the Automobile Industry/O papel das
Montadoras

• Changes in alternative renewable transport fuels
  (RTFs) do not happen in a vacuum / As mudanças no
  sistema de combustíveis dependem de muitos
  fatores
• They are interrelated to the
• Automobile industry/ A indústria do automóvel
• Developments in engine technology/Des.tec motores
• Development in fuel technology /Des. tec. de
  combustíveis
• Availability and cost of fuels/ Disponibilidade e
  custos de combustíveis
• Social, economic, political.. changes

4
O Papel/.

• WE drive on industrially manufactured fuels. the
  tech is constantly improving under constant
  socio-econimic and enviromental pressures / Nós
  usamos combustíveis industriais. Esta tecnologia
  muda constantemente, devido a pressões sociais,
  ambientais e econômicas
• Environ. advantages of RTFs is not always
  sufficient

5
O Papel

• The automobile industry is going through major
  changes/Grandes mudanças no setor
• Global dominance by a few/ Domínio mundial
• Intensive competition/ Forte competição
• Low margins on benefits or losses/ Margem de
  benefícios é muito pequena
• The industry has invested massively on oil-based
  fuels/ Investimento pesado na área dos
  combustíveis fósseis

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The top 10s/ As 10 primeiras em 2003

• GM 8.59 M units (185.5B)
• Toyota 6.78 (153.1B)
• Ford 6.54 (154.2B)
• VW 5.02 (98.4B)
• DaimerC 4.36 (171.9B)
• PSA/Peugeot 3.29 (61.2B)
• Hyundai 3.05 (38.9B)
• Nissan 2.97 (65.8B)
• Honda/ 2.39 (42.4B)
• Renault

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O Papel

• The industry make 60 M cars trucks/yr /Produz
  60 M de veículos/ano
• In 1995 there were 600 M vehicles/ 600 M de
  veículos em 1995
• In 2010 there may be one billion / Podem ser um
  bilhão em 2010
• This posses major environmental problems/
  Problema ambiental sério, com 0.5 M mortes/ano de
  acordo com a OMS

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Os 4 desafios principais

• The Fuel Challenge/ O desafio dos combustíveis
• Urgent need to find environmentally cleaner fuels
  (be fossil-based or RTFs)/ Necessidade de usar
  combustíveis mais limpos
• At the moment there is not a clear winner/
• Which RTFs? Mais usual combustível?
• Which criteria to select them? Que critério?
• Most promising ethanol, biodiesel, synthetic
  fuels (fossil and biomass)/ Mais promissor
• Hydrogen, fuel cells longer term alternatives

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O DESAFIOS...

• The engineering challenge/ Desafio da engenharia
• The IC engine has dominated the transportation
  systems/ Domínio do motor CI
• Urgent need to developed a more environmentally
  friendly engine/ propulsions systems/ Necessidade
  de desenvolver novos sistemas para proteger
  melhor o meio ambiente
• IC will dominate next two decades/ O motor CI vai
  continuar a dominação nas próximas duas décadas
• Promising innovation is the flex-fuel
• New propulsion systems (hydrogen) still require
  considerable RDD/ Novos sistemas de propulsão
  vão demorar ainda muitos anos

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OS DESAFIOS

• Environ. Health Challenge/ Os desafios
  ambientais e de saúde
• Transport is responsible c30 CO2
• Stringent environmental legislation/Maior
  controle ambiental
• Partial solutions/ Algumas soluções parciais
• Menos carros
• Improve the ICE/ Melhorar a eficiência
• Use cleaner fuels (ethanol, biodiesel, synthetic
  (fossil or biomass based)
• Utilizar combustíveis menos poluentes

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OS DESAFIOS.

• Structural/Market challenge/ O desafio das
  estruturas
• Some new fuels (e.g. hydrogen) require expensive
  infrastructure
• Others (ethanol, biodiesel) dont and this is a
  major advantage
• Alguns dos combustíveis (o hidrogênio) necessitam
  de estruturas muito caras

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SCENARIOS

• Development of RE will affect new RTFs
• O desenvolvimento dos RTFs está supeditado ao
  desenv. das ER
• RE can make a major contribution
• EREC scenarios
• Robust support RE 50 energy (2040)
• Significant support 25
• (EREC takes into account only tech dev in RE, and
  not in conventional energy- ela só considera os
  desenvolvimentos tecnológicos)
• Conselho Europeo das Energias Renováveis

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Scenarios
2001 2010 2020 2030 2040
World energy consumption MTOE 10,038 11,752 13,553 15,547 17,690
Biomass 1080 1291 1653 2221 2843
Hydro L 223 255 281 296 308
Hydro S 9.5 16 34 62 91
Wind 4.7 35 167 395 584
PV 0.2 1 15 110 445
Solar T 4.1 11 41 127 274
Solar TW 0.1 0.4 2 9 29
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Scenario, Cont..
Geother 43 73 131 194 261
Tidal 0.05 0.1 0.4 2 9
Total RE 1364 1683 2324 3416 4844
RE 13.6 14.3 17.1 22.0 27.4
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Scenarios

• RE provides (exclud trad biomass hydro) 100 GW
  of grid connected electric
• Cumulative investment/ Inversões (1995-2003)
  85 B
• Wind/Eloica Power 40.3 GW (2003) 0.5 world
  electricity 2008 95GW
• Germany 14.6 GW (2003)
• Spain 6.4 GW
• USA 6.34 GW

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Scenarios Transporte

• Global estimates not quantified/O potencial
  mundial não foi quantificado
• Studies focussed on tech rather than economics or
  social/Estudos sobre a questão tecnológica
• Competition for other uses (electric, heat) makes
  it difficult to determine the most effective use
• Outros usos da biomassa dificulta qual o melhor
  uso energético
• Lack of an international market/ Falta de um
  cartel internacional

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Scenarios Transporte..

• Advanced Conversion tech
• Key RDD areas/ Áreas princípais de PD
• Conversion of cellulose to sugars
• Biomass conversion via gasification thermal
  chemical routes/ Gasificação, termo-química
  converção
• (ethanol, methanol, DME, synthetic fuels,- can be
  obtained from resulting gases)
• Pyrolysis to produce bio-crude/bio-oleo

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Possible Fuel Chains
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Scenarios Transporte

• Biofuel production (biocombustíveis) 120 BL (80
  BL gasoline equiv) or 6 of world gasoline (2020)
• Other 10 and 3 of diesel (ethanol from cane)
• 33-35 of gasoline (2050-2100)
• Produced mostly in DLG/ Produtores países pobres
• Consumed mostly in DVC/ Consumidores países
  indústriais

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COMBUSTÍVEIS PRINCIPAIS

• Gasoline reformulated gasoline from crude oil
• Diesel oil reformulated diesel from crude oil
• Synthetic fuels (from oil, coal, natural gas and
  biomass)
• Natural gas

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Combustíveis, cont..

• Methanol from natural gas, coal, or cellulose
  material
• Ethanol from sugars/starches and cellulose
• Biodiesel from oil-containing plants
• Hydrogen by electrolysis of water
• Dimethyl-ether (DME) from natural gas
• Fuel cells (electric engines)

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Production of Biomass Derived End-Fuels
(Transport)

1. Biodiesel
2. Ethanol
3. Hydrogen
4. Bio-oil
5. Bio-gas
6. Methanol
7. DME
8. Electricity

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Combustíveis, cont

• ETBE based on bioethanol
• Biogas
• Bio-dimethyl ether based on biomass or
  biodegradable waste/resíduos, lixo

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Combustíveis, cont..

• The biofuels considered in the EU are
• Biodiesel (from rapeseed/carola,
  sunflower/girassol, etc)
• Bioethanol (sugar beet/beterraba, cereals, etc)
• ETBE (based on bioethanol)
• Biogas
• Biomethanol (based on biomass or biodegradable
  waste)
• Biodimethylether (based on biomass or
  biodegradable waste)

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Combustiveis, cont

• Gasoline/diesel- reformulated
• RD on these fuels is gathering pace/ Incremento
  rápido em PD
• These fuels quality is improving and will
  develop, eventually, into even higher and cleaner
  fuels/ Melhora da qualidade dos combustíveis
  (gasolina e diesel)
• They would be able to compete with biofuels on an
  environmental basis

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Combustiveis, cont

• Synthetic fuels/ Combustíveis sintéticos
• Synthetic fuels will become increasingly
  important (alcohols, diesel and gasoline) Maior
  importância no futuro
• South Africa has been producing them for many
  years (oil, coal and natural gas)
• 40 of total supply
• New plants are coming on stream in USA, Malaysia
• This has implications for biofuels

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Combustíveis, cont

• Ethanol (bio) 2003
• World 38 Bl (13 countries/países)
• Brazil 14.2 BL
• USA 10.6 BL (circa)
• EU c. 2.2 BL (incl. bioethanol-based ETBE
  Synthetic- incu ETBE a partir do álcool)
• Others, c.2 BL
• (Australia, Canada, Colombia, China, India,
  Mexico, Peru, South Africa, Thailand, etc)
• 35 countries interested

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Combustíveis, cont

• Ethanol, cont.
• World/Mundo 60-70 BL in 2012 120 BL in 2020
  (c.10 transport fuels)
• Brazil 22 BL in 2012
• USA 20 BL (2012)
• EU 8-10 BL (2010)
• Canada 1.33 BL 2010)
• China 10 BL (2010?)
• India 1.5 BL
• LA/AL 3-5 BL (Peru 1.2 BL Colombia, 1 BL..)

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Combustíveis, cont

• Methanol
• Used in the past/ Utilizado como combustível
• Produced mostly from natural gas
• Used as a building block for many applications
• Production 47.3 BL (2000)
• It is suitable for gas turbines and IC
• Best candidate for fuel cells/Muito promissor
  para uso em células combustíveis
• Potential fuel demand 3.3 BL (2010)(American
  Methanol Institute- www.methanol.org

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Bio-methanol
Feedstocks
Conversion Technology
Gasification and syngas reformulation

• Crops (Lignocellulosic)
• Short Rotation Coppice
• Long Rotation Forestry
• Residues
• - Forestry
• - Agricultural

• End-Fuel
• Raw bio-oil
• Stabilised bio-oil
• Upgraded bio-oil

• Pilot Demonstration
• Oil stabilisation and use
• Novel
• Catalytic upgrading of oil
• New reactors and continued development of
  existing reactors

• Other
• Waste oils fats?

Electricity Production Via turbine (steam and /
or gas) Fuel Cell

• Hydrogen
• Battery powered vehicles and electric trains

End Use
Vehicle IC Engine
31
Combustíveis, cont

• Biodiesel
• Rapid increase in recent years/Aumento rápido nos
  anos recentes
• EU c2.5 BL (Germany 1.3 BL)
• Can be obtained from many sources
• Many countries are considering biodiesel
• Brazil can be a world leader
• Programa de biodiesel

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Combustíveis, cont

• Bio-crude/bio-oleo
• Many potential applications/ Grande potencial
• Niche applications/Aplicações especiais
• Unlikely use in transportation in large scale/Uso
  em pequena escala

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Combustíveis, cont

• Biogas
• Large experience in non-transport applications
• Used in niche markets (urban transport)
• Many experiments
• Can use same infrastructure than natural gas
• Pode utilizar a mesma estrutura que o gás N
• Small-scale applications/Usos em pequena escala
• Low calorific value/Baixo valor calorífico

34
Combustíveis, cont

• Gás natural
• Prime candidate for hydrogen/fuel cells
• Clean fuel increasing use
• About 2 M vehicles worldwide (2004) (CNG and LNG)
• 130,000 in the USA
• (Natural Gas Vehicles Coalition)

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Combustíveis, cont

• Dimethyl ether (DME)
• Advantage can be made from any carbonaceous
  feedstock (N gas, coal, biomass) using
  established technologies/DME pode-se conseguir do
  gás N, carvão mineral, biomassa.. com tecnologias
  existentes
• Current global production 150,000 t/y 1.8 Mt
  under construction
• Major interests
• Russia- from N gas in Siberia
• China- from coal (cooking/cozinha, transport)
• Iran (0.8 Mt, export for LPG/GLP)

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DME (Dimethyl Ether)
Conversion Technology Advanced Gasification and
syngas reformulation
Feedstocks

• Crops (Lignocellulosic)
• Short Rotation Coppice
• Long Rotation Forestry
• Residues
• - Forestry
• - Agricultural

• End-Fuel
• DME as diesel extender / modifier

• Novel
• Still in RD stage

• Other
• Wastes (MSW)

Vehicle Internal Combustion Engine
End Use
37
Combustíveis, cont

• Ethyl tertiary butyl ether (ETBE)
• Made by reacting ethanol with natural gas and
  petroleum derivatives to produce a clean-burning
  fuel additive/Produzido a partir da reação de
  etanol com o GS, e outros derivados do petróleo
  para a produção de um aditivo limpo
• ETBE is approx. 42 ethanol
• ETBE is favoured in the EU
• MTBE is facing difficulties

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Combustíveis, cont

• Hydrogen
• Considered as the ultimate fuel/ O mais promissor
  para células combustíveis
• Hydrogen from ethanol
• Many problems
• Infrastructure
• 20 years away in large scale

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Hydrogen
Conversion Technology Gasification and syngas
reformulation Electrolysis
Feedstocks

• Crops (Lignocellulosic)
• Short Rotation Coppice
• Long Rotation Forestry
• Residues
• - Forestry
• - Agricultural

• End-Fuel
• Hydrogen

• Pilot Demonstration
• Fuel Cell Vehicles
• CHP systems
• Novel
• Infrastructure development
• ??

• Other
• Renewable Electricity
• Wastes (MSW)

Electricity Production Via turbine (steam and /
or gas) Fuel Cell

• Hydrogen
• Battery powered vehicles and electric trains

End Use
Vehicle Fuel Cell
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Main References

• www.erec-renewables.org
• www.biodiesel.at
• www.methanol.org
• www.economist.com/surveys/
• Mainstreaming Renewable Energy in the 21stC,
  Worldwatch Inst. Paper 169 (May 2004
• Sawin J L (2004) Thematic Background Paper 3,
  Int. Conf. RE, Bonn, June 1-4
• Fulton L (2004) Biofuels for Transport- An
  International Perspective, IEA
• Zervos A, Lins C, Schafer O (2004) Tomorrows
  World, REW 74 238-245

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Finalmente

• Não é fácil dar resposta a uma questão muito
  complexa como é o futuro dos combustíveis no
  setor do transporte.
• Muitos avanços técnicos são ainda necessários e
  muitas mudanças sociais, políticas e ambientais
• No futuro os combustíveis podem ser muitos, mas o
  petróleo vai dominar ainda por várias décadas
• MUITO OBRIGADO PELA SUA ATENÇÃO!