Captain Dave Price, USN

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Interactive and Structural Complexityin the
Flight Training Environment(A Wicked Problem)

• Captain Dave Price, USN
• Commander, Training Air Wing FOUR

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Learning Theory
Wicked Problems
Art and Science
effect
Interactive Complexity
Causality or Correlation
Structural Complexity
probability
Then What?
Why?
System of Systems
Humans!
Chaos
Links
Assumptions
Waves of Consequences
NATOPS
Nodes
What if?
Rule Sets
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Discussion Themes

• Recognize and challenge assumptions.
• Zoom out! (instructing and flying are different)
• Work to reduce ambiguity and risk through better
  situational awareness but
• Be prepared for human-induced chaos.
• Ask simple but difficult questionsWhat if?
  Then what? Why?
• Spend time thinking!

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First things first!

• Can we analyze our training environment in
  systemic fashion?
• What are the elements of our system?
• What are the outcomes we seek from the system?
• What do/can we control?

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Analyzing our Training Environmentby Challenging
Assumptions

• Reduce ambiguity through assessment
• What do we know we know?
• What do we think we know?
• What do we hope we know?
• What do we need to know?
• What can we not know?
• What if we answer wrong? Increased risk?
• A systems approach can help

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What is our framework of outcomes?

• Actions and reactions in the environment are
• Predetermined
• Possible
• Likely
• Unlikely
• Impossible

When someone tells you something is probable, ask
for a number! (Probability is based on
experimentation.)
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System of Systems Analysis (SoSA)
Systems functionally, physically, and/or
behaviorally related groups of regularly
interacting or interdependent elements
Key Definitions
Airspace
Links Elements of a system that represent a
behavioral, physical, or functional relationship
between nodes.
Airplane
Key Nodes A node that has critical impact on
the entire system of systems. -Key nodes are
likely to be linked to, or resident in, multiple
systems.
Aircrew
ATC
Adapted from Joint Doctrine
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Can you describe our system

• Examples of nodes?
• 1.
• 2.
• 3.
• Examples of links?
• 1.
• 2.
• 3.

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Systems

• Should be analyzed based on both system structure
  and linkages.
• Structural complexity number of nodes
• Interactive complexity relationships between
  nodes how they interact
• Can you give an example of a structurally
  complex, interactively simple system?

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What is Interactively Complex?
Let's play chess!
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The Operational Environment of Chess

• How many
• Players?
• Possible Outcomes?
• Pieces?
• Spaces?
• Basic moves?
• Average legal moves per turn?
• Possible starting moves?
• Possible permutations to the outcome?

Does anyone have a super computer handy?
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Is Chess Complex?

• Shannons number
• 10120
• Is that BIG?
• Anyone know how many atoms are estimated to be in
  the universe?
• 4x1079 and 1081
• Now lets add a little humanity!

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What if?

• Our opponent has different rules?
• His objectives and end state differ from ours?
• The spectators begin moving pieces?
• ENS Pawn doesnt like Boomer IP Rook and refuses
  to move to an adjacent space?
• Ranger Solo Knight misinterprets his orders?

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Then what?

• How complex is the environment now?
• Our assumptions were wrong?
• Are others irrational because we dont know their
  rules? Because they dont follow ours?
• If our opponent is only playing to capture all of
  our pawns might we both claim victory?

Is flight training more complex than chess?
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What does this mean??

• The proximate cause of effects in interactively
  complex situations can be difficult to predict.
• Caveman Aviator translation Did your instructor
  action cause the desired effect in your student?

Let's Demonstrate!
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A simple system?

• Structurally simple with two nodes (you and me).
• But interactively complex?
• Known rules and desired effect.
• Please lay your hand flat on the table.
• When I raise my right hand, you raise yours.

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What happened??!!

• Causality or correlation?
• Did you raise your hand because I raised mine or
  due to some other stimulus?
• What links exist between the nodes?
• How did the human element affect the outcome?

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So what?

• Interactively complex systems like those
  encountered in our flight training environment
  present wicked problems. Despite this, working
  to understand nodes and links in the system and
  how they might interact reduces ambiguity and
  correspondingly risk, thereby increasing our
  chances for success.
• Need to balance the art with the science.