Welfare regimes, social fluctuations and the generational gap

1

• Welfare regimes, social fluctuationsand the
  generational gap
• Compared cohort dynamics in France, Europe and
  the United states

• Louis Chauvel Pr Sciences-Po Paris
• Site http//louis.chauvel.free.fr
• chauvel_at_sciences-po.fr

2

• Intentions
• Developing aspects of my bookon cohort dynamics
  of inequality Destiny of Generations
• Analyzing a non-acknowledged source of
  inequalities a mix between inter- and intra-
  generational inequalities
• Insisting on scarring effects (French effet
  de scarification) linked to transitional
  socialization on birth cohorts objective life
  chances
• Interrogating future of inequalities and welfare
  regimes we are socializing the pensioners of
  2050

3

• General plan
• Definitions of generations
• The Long term generational progress hypothesis
• Collective socialization and social history
• Lexis diagram and cohort lines
• Seven generational brakes in France
• International hypothesis on generational brakes

4

• Definitions of  generation 
• Anglo-Saxon tradition generation kinship
• European tradition three degrees of generations
  

Historical generation Collective identity and consciousness, conflictuality, generation "by itself and for itself" Social generation Demographic generation( birth cohorts) Neutral grouping of individuals raw material
5

• Cultural or objective generations?...
• Karl Mannheim and a symbolic-culturalist theory
  of generations
• The contains ltof consciousnessgt are important
  (sociologically speaking), not only because of
  their signification, but also because they melt
  separate individuals into one group, they have an
  effect of socialization. (dass sie die
  Einzelnen zur Gruppe verbinden, sozialisierend
  wirken ) (K. Mannheim, Das Problem der
  Generationen, 1929)
• Mannheim acknowledges also the existence of a
  Generationenlage objective generational
  situations
• QUESTION do the conditions of entry of a cohort
  in adulthood have an effect on future life
  chances? Do they have effects of socialization?

6

• The long term generational progress hypothesis
• Kant and the intergenerational progress The
  previous generations seem to have worked because
  of the following ones, to prepare the level from
  which the followers will be about to build the
  edifice of which Nature has the project, and of
  which the former generations will be the only
  ones to benefit from. Their ancestors (may be
  with no intention), have worked with no
  possibility to enjoy the felicity they prepared
  Idea for a Universal History with a Cosmopolitan
  Intent (1784)
• Medical progress longer life expectancy in
  better conditions
• Progress in education better integration of
  newer generations
• Economic growth increased consumption
• Pacification of intergenerational relations
  intergenerational solidarity
• QUESTION Is that Kantian hypothesis really true?

7

• Les temps de la socialisation
• La socialisation primaire (Parsons)
• Dans lenfance, le moment de lapprentissage
  général des valeurs, rôles et modèles sociaux,
• famille comme lieu central.
• La socialisation secondaire (Berger et Luckmann
  La construction sociale de la réalité)
• Deuxième processus, de socialisation spécialisée
  comme lintériorisation de sous-mondes
  institutionnels . Problème chez BL au long de
  la vie, ou près lécole primaire ?
• La socialisation transitionnelle
  (Roulleau-Berger)
• Période courte de la vie où les potentialités
  acquises à lécole se changent en une position
  sociale définitive
• Utilité et limites de ce modèle

socialisation primaire Jusquà la fin de lécole obligatoire socialisation transitionnelle socialisation secondaire Au long de la vie adulte
8

• Socialization versus individual and collective
  history
• Life cycle and socialization
• Primary and secondary socialization (Berger et
  Luckmann)
• The  transitionnal socialization 
• Long term impact of the  transitionnal
  socialization   scar effect 
• History and the constitution of a
  Generationengeist and of a Generationenlage

Primary socialization Untill mandatory school (?) Transitionnal socialization Secondary socialization adulthood
25-30 y.o.
16-18 y.o.
9

• The Lexis Diagram (1872)

10
QUESTION are there long term consequences of
collective difficulties when entering labor
market ?
Risks of unemployment 12 months after living
school  ()
45
40
35
30
Male
25
20
Female
15
Birth cohort 1959
10
5
Birth cohort 1953
0
Year
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source  Enquêtes emploi INSEE 1969-2000, centre
Quételet archive Lasmas
11

• Seven generational brakes in France
• 1. Income distribution by cohort
• 2. Progress of the occupational structure
• 3. Effect of  rémanence  Scar effect
• 4. Downward mobility
• 5. Risks of dyssocialisation
• 6. Desequilibrium in the political representation
• 7. Problems of transmission of our social model
  to the next generations

12
1. Distribution of income
13

• Standardized income (francs 1995 CU) by age
• Source  Chauvel (1998), graphique 35  6,65 F
  1

• Travels ( of 4 nights or more outside for
  leisure)   30-39 and 50-54 y.o.
• Source  Rouquette et Taché, 2002

14
2. Progress of the occupational structure
Proportion of higher white collars for two age
groups and French average Source
Enquêtes Emploi 1969-2000 et Formation-qualificati
on-professionnelle 1964 et 1977, INSEE archives
LASMAS-Quételet Note Les jeunes salariés ont
connu un quasi doublement des emplois qualifiés
entre 1964 et 1980, puis un arrêt de la
croissance. Le pourcentage est calculé par
rapport à la classe d'âge. Sont considérés comme
cadres et professions intermédiaires ceux qui
exercent effectivement un emploi correspondant à
cette catégorie. Jr classe d'âge 30 à 34 ans
Sr classe d'âge 50 à 54 ans. Les enquêtes FQP
surestiment la part des cadres chez les 50-54 ans
en excluant de l'enquête les femmes
définitivement en retrait de la population
active.
15
3. Scar effect Proportion of higher white
collars 1971-2000
16
Lexis Table
(Lexis)
1971-1975
1976-1980
1981-1985
1986-1990
1991-1995
1996-2000
Period
Age
30-34
22,0
24,5
25,8
25,2
26,2
27,5
35-39
18,0
22,7
27,8
27,5
27,3
27,0
Cohort
1965
Cohort
1965
40-44
15,8
18,6
25,4
28,8
28,6
28,3
45-49
15,3
15,8
20,2
25,9
29,4
28,8
50-54
15,1
15,3
17,2
21,0
26,2
29,3
Cohort
1945
Cohort
1945
55-59
13,3
15,2
16,5
16,9
20,1
25,4
Cohort
1930
Cohort
1915
Cohort
1930
Cohort
1915
Source
Enquêtes
Emploi
1971-2000, INSEE
archives LASMAS-Quételet
Note
en moyenne, entre 1971 et 1975, la classe
dâge 30-34
ans comptait 22,0
de cadres et professions
intermédiaires. Sont considérés comme cadres et
professions intermédiaires ceux qui exercent
effectivement un
emploi correspondant à cette catégorie, ou
retraités ayant exercé comme dernier emploi une
telle profession
femmes
et hommes en part de leur classe dâge.
17

• Lexis Graphs
• Proportion of higher white collars (Goldthorpes
  service class III) 1971-2000 lexis
  age/period lexis period/age

18
The cohort diagram Proportion of higher white
collars (Goldthorpes service class III)
1971-2000
19
4. The newer generations know no more
improvement, when compared to their own parents
Intergenerational upward mobility rate and
difference up less downward mobility
rates Upward mobility rate difference up less
downward mobility rates Source 
Enquêtes Emploi 1982-2000, INSEE  archives
LASMAS-Quételet
20
5. A major risk of dyssocialization
Evolution of relative suicide risk for two age
groups (1950 to 2000) (100 average national
rate for 15 to 84 yo) Source Chauvel,
1997a pour 1950-1995 et Service d'Information sur
les Causes Médicales de Décès (SC8 de l'INSERM)
pour 1990-1999. Note Depuis 1985, le taux de
suicide des 35-44 ans a fortement progressé, à
l'inverse de celui des 55-64 ans. Population
masculine.
21
Oversuicidity by age group 1950 to 2000
Source  Chauvel, 1997a pour
1950-1995 et Service d'Information sur les Causes
Médicales de Décès (SC8 de l'INSERM) pour
1990-1999. Note  Oversuicidity is the residual
of age and period standardized suicide rates
22
6. Desequilibrium in political representation
Age distribution of French Députés (National
Parliament) 1981-1997-2002 Source 
Trombinoscopes de lAssemblée Nationale.
23

• Daily newspaper reading ( ) (diagramme cohortal)
• Note  answer  everyday  to the question
   abour how often do you read the news in daily
  newspapers 

• Participation to political discussions in two age
  groups
• Note  answer    frequently  to the question
   when you get together wth friends, would you
  say you discuss political matters frequently,
  occasionally or never 

Source  Mannheim Eurobarometer
Trend File 1970-1999, MZES-ZUMA-ZEUS  données
fournies par la BDSP-Grenoble..
24

• 7. Transmission of our social model to the next
  generation
• Lexis diagram and the illusion of age

Age
Death
1910
Retirement
1930
1950
80
1970
End of stable employment
60
Jadis
Access to stable employment
40
End of school
20
0
Period
1890
1910
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
25

• International variations
• A french specificity?
• A universal evolution in  post industrialized
  countries  facing slow growth?
• Diversity in societal adaptability to economic
  fluctuations?
• Role of welfare regimes, and intergeneration
  inequalities
• Three great models of evolution
• Continental and Mediterranean Europe ( Japon)
  protection of insiders against outsiders (new
  generations are facing major difficulties)
• United States and anglo-saxon countries the
  new generations, in the average, face
  difficulties, but higher inequalities imply a
  divergence between lowest and highes income
  groups and social classes
• Northern Europe Closer to a universalistic
  egalitarian equilibrium between age groups,
  genders and social classes (lower intra- and
  inter- cohort inequalities)
• Emerging countries
• in fast growth countries new opportunities
  for newer cohorts, and higher inter- and
  intra-cohort inequalities to the benefit to young
  university graduates
• in stagnation countries intergenerational
  inequalities and generational destabilization

26

• Conclusions
• Kant law of long term generational progress is
  false for short-middle term
• The future of Welfare state in France is highly
  uncertain
• In many countries, a better equilibrium between
  generations is ned
• Problem the social inertia ( scaring effect )
  imply a long term impact if nowadays
  difficulties sacrificed generations do not
  easily catch up
• This catch up dynamics of sacrificed generations
  is not spontaneously effective it can become
  an object of negotiation for a new Welfare state
  in Europe

27

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  macrosociale , Revue française de sociologie,
  vol.41, n4, pp.643-684.
• Becker H.A., 2000 Discontinuous Change and
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  Generational Conflict. The Family and State in
  Ageing Societies, Routledge, London and New York.
  
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