Renewable Energy: Overview

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Renewable Energy Overview
Wim C. Turkenburg Copernicus Institute for
Sustainable Development and Innovation Utrecht
University The Netherlands Unicamp, Campinas,
Brazil 19 February 2002
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WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT
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Renewable Energy WEA

• Chapter 5
• Energy Resources
• (Hans-Holger Rogner)
• Chapter 7
• Renewable Energy Technologies
• (Wim C. Turkenburg)

• Lead authors chapter 7
• - Jos Beurskens
• - André Faaij
• - Peter Fraenkel
• - Ingvar Fridleifsson
• - Erik Lysen
• - Davis Mills
• - Jose Roberto Moreira
• - Lars Nilsson
• - Anton Schaap
• - Wim Sinke

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Advantages Renewables

• Improving access to energy sources
• Diversifying energy carriers
• Balancing the use of fossil fuels
• Reducing dependence on imported fuels
• Reducing pollution from conventional energy
  systems
• Suited to small and large scale applications

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Disadvantages Renewables

• Technologies often capital intense
• Energy costs often not (yet) competitive
• Diffuse energy source spatial requirements
• Environmental concerns (hydro, wind, biomass)
• Intermittent character (wind, solar)

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Present contribution Renewables

• World primary energy consumption in 1998
• _________________________________________________
  _____________________________________________
• Fossil fuels 320 EJ (80)
• - oil 142 EJ
• - natural gas 85 EJ
• - coal 93 EJ
• _________________________________________________
  _____________________________________________
• Renewables 56 EJ (14)
• - large hydro 9 EJ
• - traditional biomass 38 EJ
• - new renewables 9 EJ
• _________________________________________________
  _____________________________________________
• Nuclear 26 EJ (6)
• _________________________________________________
  _____________________________________________

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Technical Potential Renewables
Supply in 1998 Technical potential

Biomass 45 10 EJ 200-500 EJ/y
Wind 0.07 EJ 70-180 EJ/y
Solar 0.06 EJ 1,500-50,000 EJ/y
Hydro 9.3 EJ 50 EJ/y
Geothermal 1.8 EJ 5,000 EJ/y
Marine - n.e.
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Biomass energy conversion

• Sources
• plantations
• forests residues
• agricultural residues
• municipal waste
• animal manure
• etcetera

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Biomass energy conversion

• Production of heat
• improved stoves, advanced domestic heating
  systems, CHP.
• Production of electricity
• (co-)combustion, CHP, gasification (BIG-CC,
  engines), digestion (gas engines).
• Production of fuels
• ethanol, biogas, bio-oil, bio-crude, esters from
  oilseeds, methanol, hydrogen, hydrocarbons.
  Produced by extraction, fermentation, digestion,
  pyrolysis, hydrolysis, gasification and synthesis.

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Status biomass energy

• Cost biomass from plantation already favourable
  in some developing countries (1.5-2 /GJ).
• Electricity production costs of 0.05-0.15 /kWh.
• New technology (BIG-CC) needed to reduce
  electricity production costs to 0.04 /kWh.
• Advanced technologies to produce bio-fuels
  (methanol, hydrogen, ethanol) at competitive
  cost (6-10 /GJ).

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Biomass energy development strategies

• More experience with, and improvement of, the
  production of energy crops.
• Creating markets for biomass.
• Development and demonstration of key conversion
  technologies.
• Poly-generation of biomass products and energy
  carriers from biomass.
• Policy measures like internalizing external costs
  and benefits.

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Modern wind energy


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Modern wind farms some key figures

• On land wind farms capacity varying from 1 MW to
  100 MW (Spain even 1000 MW)
• Typical ex-factory price US 350 to 400 per m²
  rotor swept area
• Installed power varying from 400 W/m² (low wind
  speed area) to 550 W/m² (high wind speed area)
• Present most applied turbines 0.6 MW to 1.5 MW
  (or approx. 43 m Ø to 60 m Ø).

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Market development
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Market developmentsome key figures

• Total installed power 23,300 MW (end 2001,
  world).
• 82 of power in only 5 countries (D, DK, E, USA,
  India)
• Growth during last 5 years gt 30 /year.
• Progress factor 80 .
• Energy pay back time 0.25 - 0.5 years.
• Technical life time 20 years.

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Future development wind

• Wind turbines become larger.
• Wind turbines will have fewer components.
• Special offshore designs.
• 10 percent grid penetration maybe around 2020.
• Installed capacity in 2030 could be 1,000 2,000
  GW.
• Potential development energy production costs
  0.05 gt 0.03 /kWh ( 0.01 /kWh for storage).

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Solar PV stand-alone systems

• consumer products
• telecom
• leisure
• water pumping
• lighting signalling
• rural electrification
• etc.

Solar Home System (Bolivia)
PV-pumped cattle drinking trough (NL)
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Grid-connected PV systems

• building- infrastructure-integrated PV
• roofs
• facades
• sound barriers
• etc.
• ground-based power plants

City of the Sun 50,000 m2 PV (NL)
PV sound barrier (NL)
PV gold (Japan)
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PV market growthshipments per year (MW)
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Status Solar PV

• Conversion efficiencies of PV modules ranging
  from 6-9 (a-Si) to 13-15 (x-Si).
• Many PV technologies under development.
• Increase PV shipments (50 MW in 1991 150 MW in
  1998 280 MW in 2000).
• Continuous reduction investment costs (learning
  rate 20).
• gt 500.000 Solar Home Systems installed in last 10
  years.

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Potential development Solar PV

• Investment costs grid-connected PV-systems may
  come down from 5-10 /W gt 1 /W.
• Energy payback time may come down from
  3-9 years gt 1-2 years (or less).
• Electricity production costs may come down from
  0.3-2.5 /kWh gt 0.05-0.25 /kWh.
• PV can play a major role in rural electrification.

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Future of PV some conclusions

• PV technically sufficiently mature for
  large-scale use.
• large room for improvement in cost (x 1/5) and
  performance (x 2).
• major contribution (EJ, CO2) from PV requires
  long-term approach, but
• great commercial, economic, and development
  opportunities.

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Solar Thermal Electricity

• Production of high temperature heat, using
  concentrating systems, to generate electricity
• Applicable in sunnier regions
• All technologies rely on four basic elements
• - collector / concentrator
• - receiver
• - transport / storage
• - power conversion

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Solar Thermal Electricity

• Single Axis Tracking Through system
• commercial available since 1980s
• current energy costs 0.12-0.18 /kWh
• potential energy costs 0.06 /kWh

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Solar Thermal Electricity

• Two Axis Tracking Solar Tower
• started 1980s, several built
• Illustration Solar One 10 MW plant (Barstow,
  California, 1982-1988)
• Solar Two recently demonstrated molten salt heat
  storage, delivering power to the grid on a
  regular basis

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Solar Thermal Electricity

• Two Axis Tracking dish / heat engine power plant
• several prototypes operated successfully in last
  10 years.
• size prototypes 400 m2 10 kWe.
• 2-3 MWe dish plant under development, attached
  to existing power plant.

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STE some conclusions

• Installed STE capacity about 400 MWe (1 TWh/y)
  may grow to 2000 MWe in 2010.
• Solar fields can be integrated into fossil fuel
  power plants at relatively low cost.
• STE conversion efficiency may increase from
  13-16 in near term to 16-20 in long term.
• Electricity production costs may come down from
  0.12-0.18 /kWh today to 0.04-0.10 /kWh in long
  term.

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Low Temperature Solar Energy

• Worlds commercial low-temperature heat
  consumption 50 EJ/y for space heating and 10
  EJ/y for hot water production.
• Low and medium temperature process heat
  consumption (up to 200 C) 40 EJ/y.
• Demand can be met partially with solar energy.
• Mismatch between demand and supply requires heat
  storage.

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Low Temperature Solar Energy

• Solar Domestic Hot Water system (SDHW)
• Collector area per system 2-6 m2.
• Energy cost 0.03-0.25 /kWh.
• Solar fraction 50-100.
• Collector area installed is about 30,000,000
  m2, equivalent to 18,000 MW, generating 50 PJ
  heat per year.

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Low Temperature Solar Energy

• Large water heating system
• Around one-tenth of total installed area.
• Wide spread use in swimming pools, hotels,
  hospitals,
• Cost per kWh somewhat less than for SDHW systems

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Low Temp. Solar Energy Technologies

• Other options
• Solar space heating (solar combi-systems).
• District heating (central collector area).
• Heat Pumps (tens of millions installed).
• Solar cooling (poor economics today).
• Solar cooking (over 450,000 box-cookers in
  India).
• Solar crop drying (over 100,000 m2 installed).
• Passive solar energy use (new building design).

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Hydro-electricity
Salto Caxias hydro plant. More than 30 of total
investment budget allocated to 26
socio-environmental projects
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Electricity from hydropower
PRIMARY SOURCES OF ENERGY FOR WORLD ELECTRICITY
GENERATION

• Large-scale systems
• 640 GW installed
• 2,510 TWh/year
• ______________________________________________Smal
  l-scale systems
• 23 GW installed
• 90 TWh/year
• Figures 1997

Natural Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Coal
Oil based
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Hydropower some conclusions

• Production may increase to 6000 TWh in 2050.
• Technologies available to reduce social and
  ecological impacts.
• Hydropower plants are capital intensive.
• Large scale systems mature technology, unlikely
  to advance.
• Electricity production costs 0.02-0.10 /kWh.
• Additional advantages operating reserve,
  spinning reserve, voltage control, cold start
  capability.

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Geothermal Energy

• Used for bathing and washing for thousands of
  years.
• Used commercially for some 70 years
• High temperature fields in more than 80
  countries.
• Low temperature resources found in most countries.

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Geothermal electricity production

• Some conclusions
• 45 TWh produced in 1998
• Electricity production cost 0.04 /kWh
• Efficiency power plant 5-20
• Accessible potential 12,000 TWh/year
• Annual growth installed capacity 4

• Installed capacity in 1998 8,240 MW
• USA 2,850 MW
• Philippines 1,848 MW
• Italy 769 MW
• Mexico 743 MW
• Indonesia 590 MW
• Japan 530 MW
• New Zealand 345 MW
• Iceland 140 MW

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Direct use of geothermal heatsome conclusions

• Utilization in 1998 40 TWh
• Production cost 0.005-0.05 /kWh
• Conversion efficiency 50-70
• Accessible resource base 600.000 EJ
• Annual growth installed capacity 6
• New challenge geothermal heat pumps

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Marine energy technologies

• Tidal barrage energy
• Wave energy
• Tidal / marine currents
• Ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC)
• Other options

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Potential contribution renewables
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Potential contribution renewables
Shell scenario
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Potential contribution renewables

• Potential contribution in second half of the
  21th century
• 20 - 50 of total energy consumption.
• Transition to renewables-based energy systems
  relies on
• - Successful development of renewable energy
  technologies that become increasingly
  competitive.
• Removal of barriers to the deployment of
  renewables.
• New policy instruments to speed-up the diffusion.
• - Political will to internalise environmental
  (external) costs that permanently increase fossil
  fuel prices.

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Policy options cost-buy-down and dissemination

• Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
• Concessions
• Green electricity market
• Carbon dioxide tax
• Subsidies with sunset clauses
• Retail financing
• Clean Development Mechanism

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WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS