Developments in foodservice - Presentation for Food from Denmark-

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Developments in foodservice- Presentation for
Food from Denmark-
22 September 2010
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Horizons Foodservice Architects

• We help our clients build successful businesses
  in foodservice
• 100 focused on foodservice and hospitality in
  UK, Europe, USA, UAE
• We work for
• Investors
• Operators
• Distributors
• Manufacturers

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(No Transcript)
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Menurama

• 6-monthly menu collection and analysis
• 400 menus
• 100 chains
• 4 regions
• 36 menu characteristics
• 10,000 data points
• Trends since 2003
• Used for
• Strategic and tactical review of
• customer offers and prices
• Identifying emerging trends

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QuickBite

• Qualitative survey of consumers eating out
  behaviour
• By channel and outlet type
• 4 times a year
• 1,000 adults aged 16 interviewed
• Questions
• How often - in the last 2 weeks - have you eaten
  food away from home
• In which type of establishment did you obtain the
  last meal away from home?
• How much did your own meal cost?
• In the year ahead, are you likely to eat our
  more, less, or about the same as you did last
  year?
• Plus special questions

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Foodservice and Retail
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Retail and Foodservice Feel the difference
Retail Ordered Systems-driven The customer has to
work
Foodservice People centric Anything else to make
your meal special? Entrepreneurial
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Foodservice plus Retail
Total Food and Drink 140 billion

• Foodservice has given the retail world
• Pizza
• Indian food
• Chinese food
• Burgers
• Oven-ready chips
• Ice cream
• Coffee

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Foodservice
Retail
Institutions gtgt
Source Horizons with IGD
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Overview of foodservice in the UK
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Operating sectors

• Contract Caterers
• Travel

• Restaurants
• Quick Service
• Pubs
• Hotels
• Leisure
• Staff Catering
• Health Care
• Education
• Services

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Caterers spend 41 Billion each year on ...
Equal shares Food and drink 1/3 Note Food
alone 1/4 Labour 1/3 Other expenditure
1/3
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Foodservice and Near foodservice

• Mainstream foodservice
• Popular foodservice
• Hotels/leisure
• Institutional
• Vending
• Blurring foodservice/retail
• On the go
• Retailers home delivery
• Retail eating out/eating in
• What its not
• Accommodation, travel, gambling
• Retail

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Meals served by UK foodservice
Meals served 2009 Total 8 billion
Source Horizons
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Sales value of UK foodservice
Total Food and Beverage sales 2009 41 billion
Source Horizons
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Top 10 brands

• QSR

• Restaurants

• Greggs
• Subway
• McDonald's
• Costa Coffee
• KFC
• Starbucks
• Burger King
• Domino's Pizza
• Caffè Nero
• Ben Jerry's

• Pizza Hut
• Pizza Express
• Nando's
• Frankie Benny's
• Little Chef
• Prezzo
• ASK
• Prezzo
• Café Rouge
• Zizzi

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Who have outperformed their sector?

• Carluccios
• Sales 8.0
• Sector -1.1
• Maximise revenue cover costs throughout the day
• JD Wetherspoon
• Sales 1.2
• Sector -1.5
• Maximise customer spend on profitable lines

• 3. Dominos
• Sales 17.5
• Sector 2.1
• Increase sales by being available everywhere, all
  the time
• The lessons?
• Its possible to grow in the midst of a recession
• Be available
• Offer what the customer wants

Source Market Dynamics Toolbox, Key Brands and
Accounts
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How big is foodservice in the UK?

• Food, drink sales to consumers 42.0 Bn
• Food sales 31.2 Bn
• Drink sales alcoholic soft drinks 10.8 Bn
• Share of Retail Foodservice 30
• Food sales to operators 10.1 Bn
• Food ex-factory shipments 7.1 Bn
• Per year, it serves 8.3 Bn meals
• Number of outlets 259,000

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Pricing
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Dish prices
Starters, Desserts Prices go up Consumers stay
away
Source Menurama
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Price of a 3 course meal Widening difference
Source Menurama
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Promotions
Meal Deals 21
Meal Deals 36
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What would you have done if you hadnt used a
discount voucher?

• 10 of adults used a voucher in last 2 weeks
• Especially in pizza restaurants and take aways

Source QuickBite 1,000 adults July 2010
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Inflation The Margin Squeeze
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Drivers consumer issues

• More change
• Fickle consumers more choice
• Changes in lifestyle
• Demand for comfort
• More on the go
• More eating out at expense of at home
• Health/wellness vs obesity/heart disease
• Price
• Meeting (lower) price expectations

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Food and Marketing
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Top 5 dishesSource Menurama Winter 2009/2010

• Restaurants
• Pizza
• Beef/cheeseburger
• Steak
• Chicken pasta
• Chicken breast

• Pubs
• Beef/cheeseburger
• Steak
• Fish chips
• Chicken breast
• Chicken burger

• QSR (Swich/coffee shops)
• Sandwich
• Muffin
• Panini
• Baguette
• Croissant

• Hotels
• Steak
• Beef/cheeseburger
• Fish chips
• Pizza
• Grilled salmon

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Meeting changing ethical trends

• 2009
• Fairtrade
• Farm assured
• Local
• Organic
• Sustainable

• 2010
• Fairtrade
• Farm assured
• Five-a-day
• Local (grown or sourced)
• Line-caught fish
• Rustic
• Slow cooked / roasted
• Sustainable

• 2008
• Dolphin-friendly
• Organic
• Vegetarian

Fish and Chips at Old Orleans
Dixie Fish and Chips Battered cod fillets
served with fries, lemon and a side of creamy
Trinity dressing
Hand Battered Fish and Chips Fillets of battered
Pacific cod from sustainable sources, served with
peas, fries, lemon and a side of our own Trinity
dip
Hand Battered Fish and Chips Fillets of hand
battered cod from sustainable sources served with
peas, fries a side of our own creamy Trinity
dressing
Source Menurama
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Quality Assurance / Responsible Production

• Consumers increasingly demanding about their food
• Demand fuelled by celebrity chefs, press,
  documentaries
• Sales of premium foods suffered in the recession
• Top terms on menus - January 2010
• Free range (eggs, chicken, sausages)
• Organic (meat, fish, vegetables, cheese, bread,
  ice cream, biscuits, baby food)
• Home made (meat, fish, soup, English dishes
  crumble, cottage pie, roast Sunday lunch)
• Farm assured (chicken, meat)
• Corn fed (chicken, eggs)
• RSPCA Freedom Food (chicken) on menus since
  2006
• Sustainable (fish, seafood)
• Outdoor reared, Outdoor bred (meat)
• Fairtrade (coffee) on menus since 2004
• Dolphin friendly (tuna)
• Local, Farm fresh (cheese, meat)
• Red Tractor (meat) on menus since 2005

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Quality Assurance / Responsible Production
Other includes Red Tractor, hand selected,
hormone free, traceable etc Source Menurama
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Social Networking

• Resulting in increased brand loyalty

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Impact of the internet fixed and mobile

• Pre-dining research
• at outlet, dish and nutritional level
• 80 have online menus, 66 downloadable menus

Nandos
Source Menurama
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Structure of the Market
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A 25 year trend
Long term trends shown in terms of volume (Meals)
rather than purchases () because inflation can
distort the picture
0.8 pa growth in numbers of meals served
Source Horizons
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Numbers of meals
Increase in Commercial sector Restaurants QSR Pub
s Hotels Leisure
Decline in Non -Commercial sector Staff
catering Health care Education Services
Source Horizons
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During 2010

• People continue to eat out
• But spend less
• Meal deals help
• Operators facing a squeeze on their margins
• Inflation helped them get out over it in early
  2009
• 2010
• January snow down dramatically
• From mid January market picked up slowly
• Spring generally better than expected but not
  great
• Summer - disappointing

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Beyond 2010

• Next few months - continuing modest growth
• But stones in the road
• Impact of summer budget
• More taxes
• Cost sector cutbacks
• Less to spend
• Inflation
• Economic fragility
• Rising unemployment
• Leading to
• Market uncertainty
• Possible decline
• Non-commercial sector will decline

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Distribution to the foodservice sector
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Temperature profile of food purchases
Total Food purchases 2009 Total 10.1 billion
Source Horizons
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Distribution channels for food purchases
Total Food purchases 2009 Total 10.1 billion
Source Horizons
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The major players in food distribution

• Fragmented
• Top 2 have 36
• The next 5 have 17
• But
• Sector/temperature concentration

10.1 Billion
Source Horizons