Freight Movement Model Development for Oklahoma

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Freight Movement Model Development for Oklahoma
Phase 2
OU/OSU03-02 and OU/OSU03-04
Ricki G. Ingalls, Ph.D. Manjunath Kamath, Ph.D. School of Industrial Engineering and Management Oklahoma State University P. Simin Pulat, Ph.D. School of Industrial Engineering Guoqiang Shen, Ph.D. School of Architecture University of Oklahoma
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Project Description

• A prototype software system to run the Freight
  Movement Model for Oklahoma
• Multiple deliverables spanning 3 years
• First year Math model for United States freight
  flow and detailed survey of the databases to feed
  data to Regional Model
• Second year Validation verification of the
  Math model using historical data available and
  development of software prototype
• Third year development of State Model with
  inputs from regional model output

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Regional Model Development Outcomes 1st year

• Primary purpose to generate incoming, outgoing,
  and through freight by commodity, by mode, and by
  route for Oklahoma
• Modified Four-stage Travel Demand Model
• Trip Generation
• Trip Distribution
• Mode Split /Trip Assignment

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Regional Model Development continued..

• First step Code Mapping
• Relationship between Industry and Commodity
  groups
• Complete Mapping between 1997 Industry Codes
  (NAICS) and Commodity Groups (SCTG) developed

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Code Mapping

• An Illustration of Code Mapping

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Regional Model Development Phase 2 - Summary
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Regional Model Development continued

• Trip generation
• Generated freight trips origin and destination
  for 50 States using Commodity Flow Survey
  Database and Census Data (People and Business)
• Stepwise Regression used to identify contributing
  variables
• Two parts
• Trip production
• Trip attraction

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Trip Generation continued

• Trip production
• Freight production by state is a function of
  business and production information in the state
• Contributing variables include Establishments and
  employment
• Trip attraction
• Freight attraction by state is a function of
  population and business consumption in the state
• Contributing variables include Population,
  Employment, and Income
• Example for Alcoholic Beverages(SCTG09)

Origin Tonnage 0.418(Establishments) - 0.000177(Payroll) Destination Tonnage -0.165(Establishments) 0.00713(Employment) 0.000017( Gross Income)
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Trip Distribution

• Using the regression model, predict the future
  year freight flow by applying growth factors for
  independent variables
• Distribute the freight between states using
  gravity model

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Mode Split/Trip Assignment

• Mode split is inbuilt in Trip Assignment
• All or Nothing assignment using Network Model
• Assigns freight one commodity at a time i.e.,
  different networks for different commodities

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Mode Split/Trip Assignment continued
The Network diagram
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Expected Outcomes Phase 3

• Verification of math models for the Regional
  freight flow to generate incoming, outgoing, and
  through freight by mode, by commodity and by
  route for Oklahoma
• Development of prototype software to implement
  the regional model