Mid-Term Evaluation of NDP/CSF: Macro and Micro Evaluation

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Mid-Term Evaluation of NDP/CSFMacro and Micro
Evaluation

• The Economic and Social Research Institute
• www.esri.ie

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Introduction

• Medium-Term Prospects
• Micro-economic studies
• Macro-economic framework
• Implications
• Horizontal Principles
• Supplementary Measures
• Evaluation Process

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Macro-Economic Background

• Potential Growth Rate
• Infrastructural Deficit
• Inflation
• Modelling Housing Market
• Changing Sectoral Structure
• Strategy Broadly Correct

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MicroeconomicsInfrastructure

• International experience
• Model Impact of roads
• Model Impact of sanitary services
• Returns to roads
• Low in 1980s
• Very high 2000
• Impacts on productivity

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Microeconomics Human Capital

• Throughput of schemes
• Transforms from low to high skilled
• Reduces supply of low skilled
• Increases supply of skilled
• Participation effect
• Competitiveness effect
• Productivity effect

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Skilled Labour Supply
W1
7
Unskilled Labour
W
L
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Returns to Education
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Implications

• Returns on Investment
• High at this point in time, c. 14
• Constraint on action inflation
• Model of Housing market
• Inflationary consequences of investment
• Medium-term sectoral prospects
• Good services, also high tech.
• Poor agriculture, fishing, tourism, building

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NDP Effects on GNP
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Investment Criteria

• Rely on Evaluations of OPs
• Market Failure?
• Priority and Timing
• Inflation
• Management of Infrastructure
• Getting the best out of it
• Competition reveals information
• The Menu
• Economists and spending money

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Envelope to 2006

• Existing Huge Effort
• Overall Unchanged volume to 2006
• High Priority
• Economic and Social Infrastructure
• Regional Special Funding for NSS
• Human Resources
• broadly unchanged priority
• Productive Sector
• Reduced Priority

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Investment, share of GDP 2001
14
Public Investment, of GDP
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Examples

• Social housing
• Constrained by inflation
• Sectoral Prospetcs
• Agriculture, Fishing, Tourism, Building
• Affects training, RD
• Education and health

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Example - Broadband

• Where is the market failure?
• Regulatory Failure
• Possible Regional Issues
• Taking the horse to water

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Horizontal Issues

• Horizontal Principles
• Social inclusion, environment, equality, rural
  development, regional balance, North-South
• Proofing? Purpose
• Sensitising policy makers
• Policy Evaluation
• Better
• Targeted policy impact assessment

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Supplementary Measures

• Appropriate Pricing
• Water
• Waste
• Tolling
• Management of Housing Market
• Planning
• PPPs

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Management Issues

• Management
• under resourced
• Project Selection
• No change without evaluation

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Evaluation Process

• Terms of reference
• All human life is there
• Length of reports v readability
• Best the enemy of the good
• Do more in house less reliance on consultants
• Importance of independence

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Priorities Lessons

• Roads
• Urban Public Transport
• Management of Infrastructure
• Maximise Usage
• Appropriate pricing
• No change without evaluation