Global Power Shifts in the 21st Century

1
Global Power Shifts in the 21st Century

• Dr. William Y. Jiang
• Department of Organization Management
• San José State University
• Email jiang_w_at_cob.sjsu.edu
• August 2010

2
Presentation at A Glance

• Historical Power Shifts
• The Rise of U.S.
• The Rise of Asia
• The would-be 1Superpower
• The Chindia Phenomenon

3
Historical Power Shifts

• Roman Empire
• Portugal/Spain
• UK
• USA
• The Asian Hemisphere

4
The Rise of US

• 1880s/The Golden Age (the Gilded Age)
• First World War
• Second World War
• 1950s/1960s
• 1980-1989
• 1989-2000

5
US Dominance

• The Year of 1989
• Cold War Peace Dividend
• Rapid Market Expansion
• Fortune 500 Globalization
• GDP increased Three Four Folds

6
U.S. as Economic Superpower Prior to 2000

• The Super Tank Analogy
• Twenty Year Bull Market
• Growth with Increasing Productivity
• Twenty Year of Consecutive Growth
• Low or Moderate Unemployment Rate
• Low or Moderate Inflation

7
The Decade Fall of the United States

• The Internet Bubble-Busting
• 9-11
• Costly War
• The Inapt U.S. Presidential Administration
• Financial Crisis
• Over-Spending Culture (Consumers and Gov.)
  Borrow from Future
• National Debt 13.5 Trillion/44k per capita
• 4 Billion/Day Increase

8
The Decade Fall of the United States

• War Spending _at_1 billion/Day
• Over 3.2 trillion in Iraq
• Total war spending since 911 over 5 trillion
• Corporate governance (Greed/Fraud)
• Lax Financial Mechanisms

9
Prognosis of U.S. Economy

• Short and intermediate term Not optimistic
• The economy may take 10 years to recover
• Long-term US economic landscape
• Stagnation and Low growth (1-3)
• The post-American world

10
Asias Development in the Last Twenty Years

• Asian Population as ?? of the Worlds
• Asian Diligence
• Asian Ingenuity
• Asian Competitive Spirit
• Free from Historical Burdens

11
China Would Be Superpower

• De-Ideologizing
• Free Market Economy/Capitalism
• Pragmatism
• Science and Tech
• Towards Meritocracy
• National Stability
• Education/Training

12
Chindia Phenomenon

• Close to 40 of Worlds Pop. Market
• Inexhaustible Inexpensive labor
• Inexhaustible skilled labor too
• China heavy manufacturing base
• India Heavy Service Base

13
The Need for U.S. Realization

• Is the U.S. recognizing all of these?
• Is the U.S. ready and able to restore the US
  luster?
• How to deal with the ineluctable ascendance of
  Asia and the decline of the West, especially USA?

14
Current Global Challenges

• Stop the War/Achieve Peace
• The Extreme Income Inequality
• Raise Environmental Standards
• Control Pollutant Emission And Climate Change
• Establish the Rule of Law, Rather Than the Rule
  of Man and the Rule of Money