Presidential Nominations

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Presidential Nominations
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Who selects the nominee?

• Historically
• Members of Congress
• State party leaders
• Primary voters
• (Or just those in Iowa and New Hampshire?)

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Percent of Party Convention Delegates Chosen by
Primaries
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Rules of the 2008 race

• Frontloading

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Date 1996
Jan wk1
Jan wk2
Jan wk3
Jan wk4 AK, HI
Feb wk1 LA
Feb wk2 IA
Feb wk3 NH
Feb wk4 DE, AZ, ND, SD
Mar wk1 CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND, MA, NY, OH, RI, VT
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Date 2008 1996
Jan wk1 IA, WY
Jan wk2 NH,
Jan wk3 MI, NV
Jan wk4 SC, FL AK, HI
Feb wk1 ME, CA, NY, IL, NJ, MA, GA, MN, MO, TN, CO, AZ, AL, CT, AR, OK, KS, NM, UT, DE, ID, ND, AL, MT LA
Feb wk2 LA, NE, WA, ME, DC, MD, VA, HI, WI IA
Feb wk3 NH
Feb wk4 DE, AZ, ND, SD
Mar wk1 OH, RI, TX, VT CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND, MA, NY, OH, RI, VT
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Rules of the 2008 race

• Frontloading
• Effect on Momentum?
• Importance of the Invisible Primary?
• Demise of public finance?

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The demise of public finance

• FECA Creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates
  who enter primary elections
• All funds candidates raise in amounts of 250 or
  less (if they raise 5000 in 20 different states)
  are matched by the federal government on Jan 1 of
  election year
• If you take the federal money, you abide by
  overall and state by state spending restrictions
  (about 44 million in 2004)
• Public financing (74 million in 2004) for
  general election campaigns (with limits on
  campaign spending)

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Rules of the 2008 race

• Frontloading
• Effect on Momentum?
• Importance of the Invisible Primary?
• Demise of public finance?
• PR vs. the Unit Rule (Democratic party)

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California

• Open primary
• 370 delegates
• 241 allocated proportionally based on primary
  results in each of 53 congressional districts
• 129 allocated based on statewide vote

3 delegates CDs 20, 47 4 delegates CDs 2, 3,
11, 16, 18, 19, 21, 22, 25, 26, 31, 32, 34, 38,
39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 48, 49, 51, 52 5
delegates CDs 1, 4, 5, 7, 10, 13, 15, 17, 23,
24, 27, 28, 29, 33, 35, 36, 37, 50, 53 6
delegates CDs 6, 8, 9, 12, 14, 30
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California

• Closed Primary
• 170 delegates
• 159 allocated to the winner in each of 53
  congressional districts (3 per district)
• 11 allocated to winner of statewide vote

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Arizona

• Closed primary
• 50 delegates selected
• Winner take all

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Arkansas

• Open primary
• 35 delegates selected
• 22 allocated proportionally based on primary
  results in each of 4 congressional districts
• 13 allocated based on statewide vote

• 6 delegates in CD 1 2
• 5 delegates in CD 3 and 4

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Arkansas

• Open primary, polls close 530pm
• 31 delegates selected today
• 12 allocated to the winner in each of 4
  congressional districts
• (Three to the winner if he receives 50 of the
  vote, proportionally to the top two if he does
  not)
• 19 allocated based on statewide vote
• All to winner if he receives 50 of the vote,
  allocated proportionally among top three if he
  does not.

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Colorado

• Closed caucus
• Precinct caucuses select delegates to county
  conventions, which select delegates to
  congressional district conventions, where 36
  National Convention delegates will be chosen

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Colorado

• Closed caucus
• Precinct caucuses select delegates to county
  conventions. These delegates are not bound to
  vote along with results of straw poll on caucus
  day.

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West Virginia

• Party Convention
• 18 delegates selected
• All 18 delegates awarded to candidate who wins a
  solid majority of the vote at the convention on
  one of the first three ballots.

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Who is advantaged by these rules?
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So who selects the nominee?

• State party leaders?
• Primary voters?
• Large contributors?
• The Press?
• A combination?
• How might the influence of different actors vary
  because of
• The prevalence of caucuses/conventions/primaries?
• Open/closed primaries?
• The calendar/frontloading?
• Unit rule vs. PR?
• Campaign finance rules?