???????? Project Risk Management

1
??????????????
1
2
???????? Project Risk Management
2
3
????

• ???????

???????
3
4
????
(1)?????????? ? ????? (2)??????????? ? ?????

?????? (3)????????? ? ????????
4
5
????

• ?????????
• (1)?????????????
• (2)?????????

5
6
????
?? ???? ???? (???????)
??-?? (known ?known) ???? ????
??-?? (known ?unknown) ???? ????
??-?? (unknown ?unknown) ???? ????
????????????
6
7
??????????????
???????? ????
????(initiating phase) ?????? ????? ????
????(planning phase) ???? ??????? ??????
???? (implementation phase) ?????? ?????? ?????? ????
????(close-out phase) ?????????? ??????? ???????
7
???????????????(??)
8
??????
(1)??????????? (2)??????????? (3)???????????
8
9
??????
9
?????????
10
????????
(1)?????? (plan risk management )
(2)????(identify risk ) (3)????????(perform
qualitative risk analysis) (4)????????(perform
quantitative risk analysis) (5)?????? (plan risk
response) (6)??????? (monitor and control risk)
10
11
????????
11
12
????????
12
???????????????????????
13
?????? Plan Risk Management
13
14
????????????
14
????????????????????
15
????????????
15
?????????????
16
?????????
(1)??????(project scope statement)
(2)????(project charter) (3)??????(project
management plan) (4)?????????(enterprise
environment factors) (5)??????(organizational
process assets)
16
17
????????????
????????(planning meeting and analysis)
-?????????????????? -?????????????????????
-????????????? -????????,?????????????
17
18
?????????
(1)???????(methodology) (2)?????(roles and
responsibilities) (3)????(budgeting)
(4)?????(timing) (5)????(risk categories)
18
19
?????????
??????(RBS)??
??????(RBS)?????????????????????????????????????
???,????????,?????????,?????????????????????
19
20
?????????
(6)??????????? (definition of risk and
impact) (7)????? (8)???????(probability and
impact matrix)
20
21
?????????
?????????????????????????(????????) ?????????????????????????(????????) ?????????????????????????(????????) ?????????????????????????(????????) ?????????????????????????(????????) ?????????????????????????(????????)
?? ?? ???????????? ???????????? ???????????? ???????????? ????????????
?? ?? ??/.05 ?/.10 ??/.20 ?/.40 ??/.80
?? ??????? ??????10 ????10-20 ????20-40 ??????40
?? ??????? ??????5 ????5-10 ????10-20 ??????20
?? ??????? ?????????? ??????????? ???????????? ????????????
?? ??????? ??????????????? ??????????? ??????????????? ????????????
????????????????????????????????????????????????,?????????,????????????????????? ????????????????????????????????????????????????,?????????,????????????????????? ????????????????????????????????????????????????,?????????,????????????????????? ????????????????????????????????????????????????,?????????,????????????????????? ????????????????????????????????????????????????,?????????,????????????????????? ????????????????????????????????????????????????,?????????,?????????????????????
21
????????????????????
22
?????????
(9) ?????????????????? (revised
stakeholders tolerance) (10) ????/??(reporting
format) (11) ??(tracking)
22
23
?????????
1.?? (1)????????? (2)?? a ?? b ??????????? (3)?? a ???? b ?? c ?? (4)??????????? a ???? b ?????????? c ?? 2.???? (1)???? a ?????? b ????,? c ???? (2)???? a ????????? b ??????? c ???? d ????????? (3)???? a ????????? b ????????????? c ??????????? d ?????? 3.???? (1)????????????? (2)???????????? (3)????????? (4)??????? 4.?? (1)???????? (2)???????
23
????????
24
??????Identify Project Risk
24
25
????????
25
?????????
26
????????
26
??????????????????
27
????????
27
???????????
28
???????
(1)??????(project scope statement)
(2)????(project charter) (3)??????(project
management plan) (4)????????(risk management
plan) (5)??????(enterprise environment factors)
28
29
???????
(6)??????(organizational process assets)
-??????????? -????????? -???????????
(7)????????????
29
30
??????????
(1)????(documentation reviews) (2)??????(informat
ion gathering techniques) -?????(brainstormin
g) -????(delphi techniques)
30
31
??????????
31
?????????
32
??????????
32
??????????????
33
??????????
(2)??????(information gathering techniques)
-???(interviewing) -??????(root cause
identification) -??/??/??/??(SWOT)??
(3)?????(checklist analysis) (4)????(diagramming
techniques) -?????(cause-and-effect
diagrams) -??????????(system or process flow
charts) -???(influence diagram)
33
34
??????????
(5)????(assumptions analysis) (6)????????(project
breakdown structure) (7)???????? (8)???????
(9)?????(sensitivity analysis)
(10)?????(failure tre analysis) (11)?????
34
35
??????????
35
????????(??)
36
???????
(1)?????(risk register) -?????
-????????? -???????? -????????????
-??????????? -??????? -??????
36
37
???????
(2)???????????? (3)???????? (project
management plan updated)
37
38
????????Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
38
39
??????????
39
??????????????????????
40
??????????
40
???????????????
41
???????????
(1)?????/?????(risk register) (2)??????(risk
management plan) (3)??????(project scope
statement) (4)??????(organizational process
assets) (5)??????(work performance data)
41
42
??????????????
(1)????????? (risk probability and impact
assessment) (2)???????(probability and impact
matrix) (3)????????(risk data quality
assessment) (4)????(risk categorization)
(5)???????(risk urgency assessment)
42
43
??????????????
??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ???????
?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ?? ??
0.90 0.05 0.09 0.18 0.36 0.72 0.72 0.36 0.18 0.09 0.05
0.70 0.04 0.07 0.14 0.28 0.56 0.56 0.28 0.14 0.07 0.04
0.50 0.03 0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.40 0.20 0.10 0.05 0.03
0.30 0.02 0.03 0.06 0.12 0.24 0.24 0.12 0.06 0.03 0.02
0.10 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.08 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.01
0.05 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.80 0.80 0.40 0.20 0.10 0.05
??????(??,?????????)(????) ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????(??,?????????)(????) ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????(??,?????????)(????) ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????(??,?????????)(????) ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????(??,?????????)(????) ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????(??,?????????)(????) ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????(??,?????????)(????) ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????(??,?????????)(????) ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????(??,?????????)(????) ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????(??,?????????)(????) ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ??????(??,?????????)(????) ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
??-????
43
44
???????????
(1)??????(risk register updates)
-??????????????? (relative ranking or
priority list of project risks)
-?????????(risks grouped by categories)
-???????????????? (list of risks
requiring response in the near-term)
-??????????????? (list of risks for
additional analysis and response)
-??????????(watch lists of low priority risks)
-??????????? (trends in qualitative
risk analysis results)
44
45
??????????????
??? ???? ?? ?? ??? ??
1 ??????,?????????????? 0.5 0.5 0.25 ?
2 ???????????? 0.5 0.5 0.25 ?
3 ???????????? 0.5 0.4 0.20 ?
4 ???????????? 0.4 0.4 0.16 ?
5 ????????? 0.4 0.4 0.16 ?
6 ??????,??????????? 0.3 0.5 0.15 ?
7 ??????????? 0.3 0.5 0.15 ?
8 ?????????? 0.3 0.4 0.12 ?
9 ???????? 0.3 0.3 0.09 ?
10 ???????,??????? 0.2 0.4 0.08 ?
45
???????
46
????????Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis
46
47
??????????
???????? ????????
?? ???????????????????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????,?????????????
????? ????????????? ????????????????????????? ?????????????????? ????????????????????????,??????????????????? ?????????????????,??????????? ?????????????????????
?????????? ??????????????????????/????????????????? ????????????????????????????????????????????????????
???????? ?????????/??????????????????/???????? ??????????????(??????)?
????? ????????????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????????????????????????
?????? ??????????????????????,?????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????,??????????????????????????????
???? ??????????????????????????????????????????????,???????,??????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????????????????????,???????,???????????????????????????????????
47
?????????????
48
??????????
48
??????????????????????
49
??????????
49
???????????????
50
???????????
(1)?????/?????(risk register) (2)??????(project
management plan) (3)??????(organizational
process assets)
50
51
??????????????
(1)?????????(data gathering and representation
techniques) -??(interviewing)
-????(probability distribution)
-????(Expert judgment)
51
52
??????????????
Beta???????????????????????????Beta???????????,??
??????????????????? ??????????????????????????????
???????,?????????????
????????(????PMBOK??2008)
52
53
??????????????
(2)??????????? (quantitative risk analysis
and modeling techniques) -?????(sensitivity
analysis)
53
???(NPV)???????????????
54
??????????????
(2) -?????(decision tree analysis)
?????(??)
54
55
??????????????
(2)-??????(expected monetary value, EMV)
? ???????? ? ????????(??) ?
????????????
55
56
??????????????
????1 ????1 ??? ?? (??) ?????(EMV)
????? ?? 60 50? 500 60 (?200) 40 220
????? ?? 40 ?200? 500 60 (?200) 40 220
?????? ?? 90 200? 200 90 (?100) 10 170
?????? ?? 10 ?100? 200 90 (?100) 10 170
?????????
56
57
??????????????
(2)-???????(modeling and simulation) (3)?????
?? ????
Vp ? Vm P
Vm ? Vo 100 P
?????????????????
?? ???? ?????
Vp ? Vm P P ??????VpVm???????
Vm ? Vo 100 P 100 P ??????VpVm???????
57
??????????????
58
???????????
????????(risk register updates)
-??????(probabilistic analysis of the project)
-????????????? (probability of
achieving cost and time objectives)
-?????????? (prioritized list of
quantified risks) -??????????????
(trends in quantitative risk analysis results)
58
59
??????Plan Risk Response
59
60
??????
????????
60
61
????????
61
??????????????????????
62
????????
62
???????????????
63
?????????
(1)?????(risk register) -???????
-?????????? -??????????? (2)??????(risk
management plan)
63
64
????????????
(1)????(??)????? (strategies for negative
risks or threats) -??(avoid)
-??(transfer) -??(mitigate)
64
65
????????????
(2)????(??)????? (strategies for positive
risks or opportunities) -??(exploit)
-??(share) -??(enhance) (3)??????????????
(strategy for both threats and opportunities)
65
66
????????????
(4)??????(contingent response strategy)
?????? ???? ??
??(Avoid) ????,?? ??????,???????,???????????
??(Transfer) ????,?? ????,?????????
??(Mitigate) ????,?? ????????
??(Exploit) ????,?? ????????????????
??(Share) ????,?? ????
??(Enhance) ????,?? ?????????????
??(Accept) ????,???? ????????????????,????????
??(Contingency) ????,???? ?????????????,????????
66
67
?????????
(1)??????? (risk register updates)
(2)?????????? (risk-related contractual
agreement) (3)????????(project management plan
updates) -?????????? -????????
-??????? -???????????
67
68
????????

• Monte Carlo Simulation ??
• ?????????? (??????)
• ????
• ????

69
?? ? ?
???????
?????????
???????
???????
???????
????????
RM?EVM ??

• EVM?RM????????

70
EVM ??????

• ?????
• ???????????????,??????? (?CPI? SPI?CV?SV?)????????
  ????????
• ????????
• ??????????????????
• ?????????????????

71
EVM ??????

• ????????
• ????,?????????
• ??EVM?????????,??????????????????????????????
• ??EVM????????????????????,??????????????

72
RM ??????

• RM ???
• ???????????
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????,???
  ????????????,???????????
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??

73
RM ??????

• RM ???
• ????????,??????????,??????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????,????????????????????????
  ???

74
EVM ? RM ???

• ??EVM????????????????????????,????????????????????
  ????????????
• ??????????????????????????????????????????

75
EVM ? RM ?????(Hilson, 2004)
76
EVM ? RM ?????

• ????
• ????????
• ??????
• ????????

77

• ????????

1. ????
2. ????
? ?

3. ????
100
40
60
15
25
30
30
78
??????
????? ????????????????????????????????
????? ?????????????????
Input ???? ???? ????? ?????? ??????
Output ?????? ?????? ??????
Input ???? ?????? ??????
Output ???? ???? ?????
?? ????
????
????? ???????????????????????????
Input ???? ???? ?????? ????? ???????????? ??????
????? ?????????????????????????????
Input ???? ???? ????? ?????? ??????
Output ?????? ??????
Output ??????? ??????
????
?? ????
Input ???? ???? ?????? ?????? ????? ??????? ?????
? ?????? ??????
????? ??????????????????????-???????????????????
????
Output ???? ???? ???? ??????
????
79
??????
????? ???????????????????????????????????????????
????????????????
Input ???? ???? ??????? ????? ?????? ??????
Output ??????? ???? ??????
????
????? ?????????????????????????????
Input ??????? ???? ???? ???? ?? ??????
Output ???? ?????? ??????
????
80
????????
Input ?????? ??????? ??????? ???? ???????? ??????
??????? ?????? ??????
????? ??????????????????????????????SWOT???????
????? ???????
Output ?????
Input ?????? ????????????? ?????? ??????
Output ???????
????
?? ????
????? ????????????????????????????
????? ??????????????????????????????????????????
??
Input ????? ??????? ?????? ??????
Input ????? ??????? ??????? ??????? ??????
Output ???????
Output ???????
????????
????????
????? ?????????????????????????????????????
Input ????? ???????
Output ??????? ????????? ????????? ??????
?? ????
81
????????

• EVM ?????
• ??????????????? (BCWS) ? ???? (PV)???????????(BCWP
  )????(EV)???????????(ACWP)???????(AC)?????????
• ??????????????????????????
• ??????????BCWS(??)????????????,???????????????????
  ?????????????(Allowance)??????????????(Robustness)
  ?

82
????????(?)

• ??????????
• ???BCWS????????????????????
• ?????????????????????????????????????
• ???????,????????????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????
• ??????????,???????????,???????????????????????????
  ???,?????????????????
• ??RM??????????????????? BCWS ???????????????

83
????????(?)

• ??????
• ????????????????????,?????????????,???????????????
  ????
• ??????????????????????????,???????????????????????
  ??????????????????
• ??????????????????(?????????,?????????????????????
  ????)
• ???????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????,???????????????????

84
????????(?)

• ??????
• ??????????
• ???????,?????????????????
• ????????,???????????
• ????????????????????? (90????),???????????
  (?????? ?????)????????? (??????),?????????????????
  ?????

85
Workshop?? Crystal Ball ? _at_Risk
??WBS, ?????????(?????)
????????????? ????? ?????????
???????? TTriangular NNormal UUniform ß Beta
???80?????????,??????????????? ???75?????????,??
???????????? ??????????????
86
(????)????????
?????????????????? ??????????
87
???????????
88
??????????????????????????????
89
????????
90
??????

• ???????
• ??????????????????????????????????
• ????????????????,???????????????(EAC)?
• ?????????????????(ACWP ?????AC),?????????????(ETC)
  ,??????????????????????(??????????CPI,????????????
  CPI? SPI)?
• ???????? EAC???????????????????
• ??????????,???EAC?????????????????

91
??????

• ???????
• ?????????????????????????????????????
• ???????????????,??????????S?????
• ???????BCWS???????????????,??????????????????

92
??????

• ?????????(?????)
• ?????????????????(?????)?????(???)????
• ????????????????????,?????????what-if???????????
  ??????
• ??,???????????,????????????????????(???????)??,???
  ??????????????
• ?????????(???)??,???????????????(S-??)????"????",?
  ?????????????????????????????????????????

93
??????

• ????????EVM
• ??????????????????????????????????????????????
• ???????????????????BCWS ? PV?
• ??EVM??,??????????????,???????????????,???????????
  ??????????? (??????)?

94
????????

• ???????EVM????
• ???????????,???????????????????????
• RM ?????????????????????????????????????
• ???? RM ??????,?????????????????
• EVM????(CPI, SPI) ????????????,???????????????????
  ?????????????????????

95
????????

• ???????EVM????
• ??CPI ? SPI ?? 1.0 ??????????
• ???????????????????
• ??????????????????? (??),?????????????????????????
  ?
• ???????????????????,???????????
• ?????,???????????,?????????,????,??????????????

96
????????

• ???????EVM????
• ?CPI?SPI ???? 1.0,?????????????,?????????????
• ??????,?????????????????,?????????????????????????
  ?????
• ?????????????,??????????,????????????????
• ????CPI?SPI ??? 1.0,??????????????????,???????????
  ??????

97
RM ????? EVM ??

• ?? EVM ???? RM ???????
• ????EVM????????????????????????
• ??CPI?SPI????
• ??????????????,???????????????????
• ? EVM ???????????????????????,????????
• CPI? SPI 0.9 ? 1.25 ?????
• ???"?????"??? 0.75,???????????????

98
RM ????? EVM ??

• EVM???????????????

99
RM ????? EVM ??

• ??EVM????????????

100
RM ????? EVM ??

• EVM???????
• CPI? SPI 0.9 ? 1.25 ?????
• ???"?????"??? 0.75,???????????????
• ??? 0.75? 0.9 ? 1.25 ,?????,????????????????CPI?SP
  I,??????????,?????????????????

101
CPI?SPI??????????

• CPI?SPI???????????????????????????????
• ???????????????(SPI ???????1.0??),????????????????
  ??????
• ???????????????,???????????????????????????????

102
EVM?????RM????

• ??1 CPI??SPI?,???????
• ??2 SPI??CPI?,?????????????
• ??3 SPI??CPI?,???????????
• ??4 CPI??SPI?,????????????????

103
Q A
103