Land Use and human-enviroment interactions in Amazonia

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Land Use and human-enviroment interactions in
Amazonia
FAPESP 50 Years Symposium, 2011

• Gilberto Câmara
• National Institute for Space Research (INPE)

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Energy
Agriculture
Ecosystems
Space technology adds value to Brazils natural
knowledge economy
Megacities
Climate change
Weather and natural disasters
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World Research Centers Impact and Visibility
INPE only Brazilian institute in top 40
Source Cybermetrics Lab, Spain
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Nature, 29 July 2010
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(No Transcript)
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ICSU Grand challenges
Improve the usefulness of forecasts of future
environmental conditions and their consequences
for people.
Develop, enhance and integrate the observation
systems needed to manage global and regional
environmental change.
Determine what institutional, economic and
behavioural changes can enable effective steps
toward global sustainability.
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ICSU Grand challenges a bit of ancient wisdom
Be careful what you wish for.
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The challenge reducing deforestation
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Impact of land change in Brazils emissions
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Earth observation satellites are essential for
measuring land change
Medium-resolution (5-50 m) earth observation
satellites data are global public goods
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How does deforestation happen?
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INPEs Monitoring Systems
dialy deforestation alerts
time
Yearly rates of clear cuts
Floresta
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Real-time Deforestation Monitoring
Daily warnings of newly deforested large areas
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Result major reduction in deforestation
Markets? Credit crunch? Coercion? Institutional
arrangments?
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Markets have a positive rôle
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Policing actions illegal wood seizure
50 of operations in 2 of the area
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Transparency builds governance!
CBERS image
Deforestation
Degradation
Science (27 April 2007) Brazils monitoring
system is the envy of the world.
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Keep watching!
Jan-April/2011 126 increase
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Deforestation hotspots March-May 2011
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Deforestation hotspots June-August 2011
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By 2020, Brazil will reduce deforestation by 80
relative to 2005. (pres. Lula in Copenhagen
COP-15)
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Market impact of deforestation reduction in Brazil
EU-15 reduction 2005-2020 20 of 1990 levels
Avoided def Brazil 2005-2020
4,9 Gt CO2eq
7,7 Gt CO2eq
From 2005 to 2020, avoided deforestation by
Brazil would be 2/3 of the total proposed EU-15
cuts
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What happened with 720.000 km2 deforested?
First map of land use and land cover of Amazonia
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Agriculture (grains)
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Cleared pasture
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Degraded land
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Class TOTAL (km2)
Clean Pasture 335.714,94 46,7
Secundary Vegetation 150.815,31 21,0
Dirty pasture 62.823,75 8,7
Regeneration with pasture 48.027,37 6,7
Non-observed areas 45.406,27 6,3
Agriculture (large-scale) 34.927,24 4,9
Small farms and settlers 24.416,57 3,4
Urban areas 3.818,14 0,5
Mining 730,68 0,1
Degraded areas 594,19 0,1
Others 477,88 0,1
Desflorestation 2008 11.458,64 1,6
TOTAL 719.210,99
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Prediction?
The Brazilian Amazon has different institutional
arrangements that influence the spatial and
temporal patterns of deforestation.
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Governing the commonsinstitutional arrangments
Ostrom, Science, 2005
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Institutional analysis in Amazonia
Identify different agents and try to model their
actions
Land change patterns
Field work
Land change models
Urban networks
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Current situation in Amazonia
Tension between different ways of access to
market and natural resources, land tenure regimes
(private and public/collective) and political
forces.
Araújo e Aguiar (forthcoming)
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Landscape model different rules of behavior at
different partitions which also change in time
SÃO FÉLIX DO XINGU - 2006
FRONT
MIDDLE
BACK
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Full and open access to space-based information
is indispensable for global sustainable
development
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A few satellites can cover the entire globe, but
there needs to be a system in place to ensure
their images are readily available to everyone
who needs them. Brazil has set an important
precedent by making its Earth-observation data
available, and the rest of the world should
follow suit.
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RIO-92 Declaration principle 10
Environmental issues are best handled with
participation of all citizens. Each individual
shall have appropriate access to information
concerning the environment.
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RIO 20 bulding on principles from RIO-92
We need a new convention on the public
availability of environmental information
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Thanks to INPEs team

• Deforestation and land cover monitoring
• Dalton Valeriano, Claudio Almeida, Luiz Maurano,
  Isabel Escada, Silvana Amaral, Mauricio Silva
• Land change modelling and institutional analysis
• Ana Paula Aguiar, Roberto Araújo, Pedro Andrade,
  Luciana Soler, Talita Assis, Sérgio Costa,
  Patrícia Pinho