???

1
????????????????????9.11???????

• ?????
• (?1?)
• ???? ?

2
???????????

• ???? a
• ??(??)
• ?? ????????????
• ???(??)
• ?? ?????
• ?????(??)
• ??? ??????
• ??(????)
• ???? ?????????
• ??

3
????? -????????-

• ???????????????????????????????????
• ??????????????????????????????
• ???????????????!
• ???????????????????????????????????

4
????? -????????-
????????? ?????????!
5
????(I)
?1?(4?11?) ???????????????
????9.11??????????????? ?2?(4?18?)
?????????????????????????? ?3?(4?25?) ???(
deterrence)?????(extended deterrence)
5?2?(?)????? ?4? (5?9?) ??????????
6
????(II)
?5? (5?13?) ? ????? ????????????? ?6?
(5?16?) ???????????????????? ?7?
(5?23?) ????????????? ?8? (5?30?) ????????????
?? ?9? (6?6?) ????????????????
7
????(III)
?10? (6?13?) ???????????????? ?11?
(6?20?) ??????????????I ??????????
6?27?(?)????? ?12?
(7?4?) ??????????????II ?????????? ?????(??)
?????? (??????????) ?13? (7?11?)
?????? ??????????????III ????????
8
?????????

• ??????(2000???) ???
• ??????(3000???) ???
• ????????????????
• ???????????
• ???????????????????????????????????????????????
  ?????

9
?????????

• ????
• ??????????????????????????(?????2005?)
• ????????????????????(?5?)?(????2005?)
• ?????
• ???????????
• URL http//web.sfc.keio.ac.jp/kenj/security/

10
??????
High Intensity
???
WMD
WMD
??
??????WMD?????
??????????
???
????????? ??????????????
???
??
?????
?????????
?????????
??????
???????
??????
Low Intensity
11
911???? ????????

• 1.?????????
• 2.??????????????????????
• ??????????????????
• ? 1) ???Balance of Power
• 2) ????

12
???Balance of Power????

• A, B, C, D, E ?5?????????
• 1) A B C D E
• 2) A B C D E eg. ????
• 3) A B E ? C D E Balancer
• A B ? C D E
• 4) A gt B C D E A Hegemon
• ???????????? Rule of Games
• ????????

13
Balance of Power ?? ????????

• ???????????
• ????????O???!?
• ?????????
• O? A gt B C D E
• ?????
• (O) F ? A gt B C ? D E
• Transnational Front
• O ? A B C D E

14
???????????????????/??????
???????? ?????????
???????? ??????
??????? ??????????
15
????????(?3????????????)

• ???????
• 1) ?????? (??)
• 2) ??????? (??)
• 3) ?????? (????)
• ????????
• 1) ???????????? (????)
• 2) ???????? (?????????)

16
9.11???????????????????????????
????????
17
????2??(theater)
????? ????
????????
????? (?2??)
???? (?1??)
?????????????
18
9.11???????
????(???????)
???(????)
??(?????????)
???????(??????)
???????(????)
?????(???????)
????(????)
???????????(???????)
19
??????????1994?/2004?

• ???????
• 1994???????(??1300km)
• 2004????????(??2000km???)
• ????
• 1994 ????/???????
• 2004??????/???????
• ?????????????????????

20
North Korean Nuclear/Missile Threat

• System Range Quantity Status
• Scud Mod C 550km unknown Operational
• Nodong 1300km 100-200 Operational
• Taepodong1 1500-2000km n/a Tested
• Taepodong2 3500-10000km n/a Development

21
(No Transcript)
22
(No Transcript)
23
(No Transcript)
24
??????????
National Level Security ????
Regional Level Security ????
????????
PKO???
???????
Global Level Security?
25
9.11???????????????????????????
????????
26
???????????????
???????????????????????(MD)????
??
???(???)??
?????
?????????????????
??
??
??
??
???(????)??
????
??????
?????
??????????????????
?????????
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
27
????????

• ??????????(2002?)9?
• 1)?????
• ?????
• ??????? ?????????
• 2)???????
• ??????????????
• ????????????
• ????????????????????????

28
??????????????
???
?????????? ?????
???
?
??
???? ?????
???
(?????)
?????
(??????)
PSI ????
????
?????? ????????
WMD??
??
????
??????
??????
ARF
?
(??????)
???
????
???
???
(??????)
29
??????????????
??????? ? ??????
??
?????
????
??????? ? ????????
??
??
????????? ???????
?????
??????
? ?
PKO?
????
PSI?
???????
?????????
? ? ? ? ? ? ? ?
(?????????????????????????)