IMF ??

1
????????????

• ???????????
• ?????
• ??????????

2
????????????

• ??
• ????????????????
• ?????????????????
• ???????????????????
• ??????????????????

3
????

• ??????????????,??????????????????????????????????
  ???????????,???????
• ??????????????????,??????????????????????????,???
  ??????????????,????????????

4
IMF ??

• ??????????????????????????????????????1948??????
  ?????????,??????1950??1961??1977??1993??????,????
  ???????
• ??,????????????????1977??????????????,?????????5??
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ???,???????????????????????

5
???????????168??? ???

• ????91?7?31????
• ?????????????????2???????,??????????,???,?2???????
  ??????,????8?????2???????,?????????168???,????????
  ?????????

6

• ??????,??????????,?????????????,??????????????????
  ????,??,?2???????????,?????????????,???????,??????
  ,??????????,?????????

7

• ??????,????????????,???2??????????????,????????2??
  ???????????????,??????????,??????????,????????????
  ??????,??????????2???????????,??????????????

8

• ??7????????????????????,????????,???2???5?????????
  ??,4???6??????????????,?????????

9
96??1?????????????

• ??96??1??????87.8???,?????? 109.7???,??????????(?
  ??????????)3.7????
• ?????,?????????????8.6,????????????????2.3,????
  ?????????????????????????,??????71.2???,???????82
  .8???????14.4???,???????4.5???,??????????????????
  ??40???,???????,???????3.6???,????????????????????
  (OBU)?????????????????9???,???????1.5?????????????
  ????????????????,????????87.8???,???????(???94??4?
  ),???????32.9????59.8?

10

• ?????,????????????????,?????1.5????118.2??????,???
  ????????????????????(????79??2??95??4?)??????????
  ?111.8???,???????(???92??2?),???????????????,?????
  ??????????????????????????????????6.5???,????????
  ??????????????????????????4.4????????????14.3???,?
  ?????????????????????,?????????????,??????????????

11
?????

• ?????Y300billion
• ??C??I??X-??M
• 20090150-140
• ????SY-C300-200100
• ????FM-X140-150-10
• ??I????S????F100(-10)90
• ????F,??????????(140-150)
• X-M?????FM-X????
• 150-14010 140-150-10

12

• ??????
• ????????????????
• ????(S)Y-C ?????
• ????(??),?????????????????(??)???(F)M-X?(????)
• ????????,??????(????)
• ?????????(1970??)??????,???????,???????,????????,
  ????????

13

• 2003??????????(?10?????)???????(Y)9900???(C)7500
  ???(I)1700 ??(X)5700 ??(M)5000?
• ????????(DS)Y-C9900-75002400
• ????(FS)M-5000-5700-700
• ??I1700DSFS2400-700???????????(2400)??????(-70
  0)??????????????????
• ??2003??????DS/Y2400/990024, ????
• ????2003??2066?????????????????

14
????????

• ?????CURBAL??X-??M????????????(????)
• ?????CAPBAL???????????????????????????????????
  ??
• CURBALCAPBAL

15
?????????Balance of Payments

• ?????????,?????????????????????????????????
• ????????????,???????
• ??????????????????,?????????????????
• ??????????????????,?????????
• ????????,????????????

16

• ????????????????????,?????????????????????????
• ????????????,???????????????,????????????,????????
  ?????????????

17

• ????????(IMF)???????????????????
• IMF1948???????????????,????1950??1961??1977??19
  93?????,???????????
• ??,????????????????1977??????????????,?????????5?(
  1993)???????????????????????
• ???????????????IMF????????,???????????????????????
  

18
????????????

• ?????????????????
• ???????????
• ????????????????
• ????,????????????????,????
• ??????????????,????,??????,?????
• ???????BOP??????

19
????????

• 1981-2005????
• 190-2005???????
• ???
• ???

20
(No Transcript)
21
(No Transcript)
22
(No Transcript)
23
(No Transcript)
24
1988-2003
25
(No Transcript)
26
(No Transcript)
27
1988-2005?????

• ????,??????????, 2004???7,145?????????2005???6028?
  
• ???????2000????(4,928),2002-2003????(1445-453),2
  004????1,898???2005?1625???
• 2003????(????),???????????????,?2004???2005???2003
  ???
• ?????????,???????

28
????

• ???????,????????,???????
• ???????
• ?????CURBAL??X-??M??????????(??????-????)??(???
  ?)
• ???????
• ?????CAPBAL???????????????????????????????????
  ??

29
????

• ???????????????
• ??????????,??????(??????????????2000.12????US34.8
  ??)2003.09 US58.1??,Debt-Service(????/??
  ??????0)
• 1960?????????????? (??????????)
• ????????????????????International Cooperation
  and Development Fund(ICDF)
• 1986.7 ?????NT122?

30
(No Transcript)
31
?????????

• ????????????
• ????????????????1 ?6????
• ????,??,????????(???)?

32
????????? 2

• ????????????????,???????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????
• ?????????
• ????????
• ???????

33
???????

• ?????????????(??????,??,?????)????????????
• ?????????????? -??????????
• ????
• ????

34
??????1991-2005

• ??????????????44,602????,???US887??
• ????34,452?.
• ??4,363?,US72?,???
• ????????????????
• ?????????(???????????,?13)

35
(No Transcript)
36
??????

• ?????
• ??????????UNCTAD????????10-2006???????????????????
  ,??????????(????????)
• ???????????????-???????????????????

37
??????(UNCTAD ??????10-2006)
38
(No Transcript)
39
WIR 2006

• Comparing the two indices we can draw up a
  four-fold matrix of inward FDI performance and
  potential

40
Front-runners countries with high FDI potential
and performance.

• Australia, Bahamas, Bahrain, Belgium, Botswana,
  Brunei Darussalam, Bulgaria, Chile, China,
  Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Dominican
  Republic, Estonia, Finland, Hong Kong (China),
  Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Jordan, Kazakhstan,
  Latvia, Lebanon, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malaysia,
  Malta, Netherlands, New Zealand, Panama, Poland,
  Portugal, Qatar, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia,
  Spain, Sweden, Trinidad and Tobago and United
  Arab Emirates.

41
Above potential countries with low FDI potential
but strong FDI performance.

• Albania, Angola, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bolivia,
  Congo, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Ethiopia, Gabon,
  Gambia, Georgia, Guyana, Honduras, Jamaica,
  Kyrgyzstan, Mali, Mongolia, Morocco, Mozambique,
  Namibia, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Republic of Moldova
  , Romania, Sudan, Tajikistan, Uganda, United
  Republic of Tanzania, Viet Nam and Zambia.

42
Below potential countries with high FDI
potential but low FDI performance.

• Algeria, Argentina, Austria, Belarus, Brazil,
  Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Islamic
  Republic of Iran, Israel, Italy, Japan, Kuwait,
  Libyan Arab Jamahiriya, Mexico, Norway, Oman,
  Philippines, Republic of Korea, Russian
  Federation, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Taiwan
  Province of China, Thailand, Tunisia, Turkey,
  Ukraine, United Kingdom and United States.

43
Under-performers countries with both low FDI
potential and performance.

• Bangladesh, Benin, Burkina Faso, Cameroon,
  Colombia, Cote d'Ivoire, Democratic Republic of
  Congo, Egypt, El Salvador, Ghana, Guatemala,
  Guinea, Haiti, India, Indonesia, Kenya,
  Madagascar, Malawi, Myanmar, Nepal, Niger,
  Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, Paraguay, Peru,
  Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, South Africa, Sri
  Lanka, Suriname, Syrian Arab Republic, TFYR of
  Macedonia, Togo, Uruguay, Uzbekistan, Venezuela,
  Yemen and Zimbabwe.

44
?????

• 1991-2005????????????34,452?,?US472???????????
• ????1979-2004????68,533?,????US903?,???????418??
• ?????,???????????(???????????,?10)

45
(No Transcript)
46
?????????

• ?????
• ????????

47
??????????

• ????
• ????
• ???????
• ?????????????,?????

48
????

• ? ????????????
• 1980??????,?????
• ?????
• ?50-93 (1961-2004)?????
• 2006?10?2618????

49
(No Transcript)
50
(No Transcript)
51
(No Transcript)
52
????????? 2005?9?

• ???? US 253,746 Million
• ??????(??) (NT33.31US)???? ?US 51,882 Million
• ?????????? US306 Billion
• ??????US366 Billion
• ?????????? US60 Billion
• ??????????????2005?10?
• ????????????????,???

53
???????? ???????? ????????
?????
93??
???? (??????) 5,982
???????? 2,466
?????? 1,457
?????? 1,134
?????? (????????????) 913
??????? 12
???? (??????) 2,110
???????? 948
???????? (??????????45???) 755
???????? 403
??????? 4
????? (??????) 3,872
54
????? (??????) 3,872
? ? 2,421
????1 -124
????2 -4
????3 1,579
? 1??????????
2???????????
3?????????????
???????? ????????