1973?Bretton Woods???????????,?????????? ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,?????????????

1
??? ???????

• 1973?Bretton Woods???????????,??????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????????????????????????
  ??,?????????????
• ??? ??????
• ????(Foreign Exchange )
• IMF???p82
• ?????????????(2008)?????????
• ????http//www.gov.cn/flfg/2008-08/06/content_106
  6336.htm
• SDRs(Special Drawing Rights)???,???????????,??????
  ????????,??????
• ????????????????????????
• ??????????,??????????????????????????????????????
  ??US???EUR? ???JPY? ???GBP??

2

• ??????????????3?
• ?????,????????????????(??????????????)??????????
  ,????????????(1?????),??????????
• ????RMB????????,????????!(??2010?????4000????,??
  ???????,????120???)
• ????????????
• 20??80????,?????????????????????
• 1996?12?1?,???????????IMF,??????IMF????(Article
  VIII ),?????????????????
• ?????????
• (?)??????????
• ?????????????,?????????????(?????????????????)
• 1.???????(Import License)
• 2.????(Import Quota)
• ??,??????????????????
• 3.?????( Export License )
• ??,????????????????,???????
• 4.?????(foreign exchange settlement )
• ??,????????,????????
• (?)???????????
• (?)????????
• ????????????????????????,?????????,?????????,????
  ???,???????????

3

• ?????2010??????????
• ?????2011.1.18?????,2010??????????129???????3125??
  ??????????,??????????????590???,????36.3,????????
  2010????????????????2588????2010??????????337.7???
  ,????20.1????29.3???,??20.5??25.7???,??12??2
  1.3???,????????(???)???,??297??13.93???,??81.4
  ??2.07???,??120??????????(MA)??????????????2010?
  ??????????????238???,??????40.3,?????????????????
  ???????????????????????????(??????)71.39??????????
  ?????40???????????????????????Arrow??????23.71??
  ???????????17.88??????????????100????????9.89??
  ?????7??????????30??????????
• ??????????????????????????????????????,???????????
  ????
• ??????,??2009??,??1.2????????????????????1.3??,???
  ??177??????,??????????1????,??????????2457.5???,??
  ??15?????????3?(??????????????)?
• 2009?????????????565???,???????,????????

4

• (?)??????
• ?????????????????????,???????
• 1.??????(exchange stabilization fund )
• ????????(exchange Intervention Fund),?????????????
  ?,?????????????????(???????)???????????????,??????
  ??????????
• 2.????????
• ???(Multiple Rate )??????????????1979-1993???????
  ????????
• ????2? p87
• ???? (Shadow Exchange Rate )????????????????,????
  ????????? ????????????? ????????????

5

• ????????
• ????D?????S??e0,Q0?,????????DS???????,?????????e1
  (??????),???????Q2,?????Q1,?????Q1Q2,????????????

??e
S
S1
D
??? ???
S2
D1
e0
D2
e1
????Q
0
Q1 Q0 Q2
?3-1 ??????????????????
6

• 1.????
• ???????????,??????Q1Q2?,?????S???S2(??),??????????
  ??e1,?????????????
• 2.????
• ????Q1Q2?,?????????????,??????e0,????????????
• 3.????
• ????,????????,?D0????D1(??)??????,S0
  ???S1(??),??????????Q0,???????e1
• 4.??????
• ?????????,????D????D2(??),?e1??Q1??????
• 5.??????
• ????Q1Q2?????(an allotment system )

7

• (?)???????5?
• (?)???????5?
• ???????????????????,????????????,???????????,?????
  ?,????????????????????????,????????????????
• ??? ?????????
• ????(Exchange Rate Regime)?????????????????,?????
  ????????????????
• ???,???????????????3?????????(18161914)????????B
  retton Woods System(19451973)????????????(Jamaica
  System,1976 )???????????
• ?????(Gold standard )???????
• ???????,???????????????(mint parity
  )?????????,??????????????,??????,??????????,???5
  7,??????????-????? ?????????
• Gold standard????????(Gold Specie Standard)
  ??????(Gold Bullion Standard) ???????(Gold
  Exchange Standard)

8

• ??????????????
• ???????? (Anchor)??? Bretton Woods
  System????????????(Gold Exchange Standard)
  ?????,??????????/??,????35????1????????,IMF???
  ??????????
• ??????,????????,????????,?1
• 1????(ounce ,oz )1.0971428????31.1034768?
  ,????????????????????????
• 1????28.3495?
• Bretton Woods System??????????Triffin Dilemma
  ????????????????50???? ??1960?????????????????
  ?????? ?
• ????
• ??????????????????????????,?????????????,?????????
  ??????,??????????,???????????,??????????????,????
  ???????????,????????????????????,???????????,???
  ??????,???????????????,???????????,???????????????
  ??????????????????????????????
• 20??60??,????????????,???????,????,????????,?????
  ???????? ?

9

• ???????????????
• Jamaica System??Bretton Woods System???,????IMF,??
  ??????????????????
• Jamaica System?????
• ????????
• ????3? p94
• ??????(floating exchange rate)???????????????(cle
  ar)/???????(dirty)/????
• ????????(Adjustable pegging exchange rate
  ),??????????????????????
• ????/????(Pegged to a basket of currencies
  )p94-95,5???
• BBC(Basket,Band and Crawling )???????????????????
  ???????????,?????????????,???????????????????????
  ? Basket???????????,?????????????,????????????????
  ??????? Crawling????????????????????????
  Band????????????

10

• ???????
• ???SDRs???
• ???IMF???(quota)
• ???????????????????
• ??20??80??????????
• ???,????????????????????
• ?????????????
• ?????????????????????????????(de jure) ??
  ???????????????????????????????(de facto ) ???
• ???????????, ??????, ??????IMF ?????????(Annual
  Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange
  Restrictions ,AREAER), ???????????????????????????
  ??, ??????????????(de facto) ???????????(de
  jure)?????????????, ??????????????????????????????
  ?, ???????????????????????????(????)?Levy-Yeyati
  and Sturzenegger (2003) ??????????????????,
  ??????????????????????Rogoff ?(2003)
  ?????????????????????????????, ???????????????????
  ??????????????

11

• ?1999 ???,????????,???????????????????????2005
  ??,??????????187 ???????????????( de jure )??p98
  ?3-2
• 1.??????????????????????????????????????????41
  ?????????
• 2.???????????7 ???????????,HK
• 3.??????????(??????????????)
• ????????????????????????????1 ????????(??RMB?????
  ?????5),????????????????????2 ?
• 4.??????????
• ??????????????????????1 ????????????????????????2
  ????4 ????????,??????????????????????
• 5.?????????
• ???????????????????,??????????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????????,????????????????,????
  ???????????????????????????????????????????????,?
  ????????,?????????????????????????5 ?????????

12

• 6.??????????
• ???????????????1 ????????????????????????2,?????
  ???????????????????????????????????????,??????,???
  ???????????????????????????????????????10
  ?????????
• 7.?????????????????
• ?????????????????????50 ?????????
• 8.?????????
• ?34 ?????,?????????????,???????????????????,??????
  ??????,???????????????????
• ??????5?(????)???7?
• ????IMF???????????
• De Facto Classification of Exchange Rate Regimes
  and Monetary Policy Frameworks -- as of April 31,
  2008

13

• ??? ???????
• ??????????????????
• (?)?????(fixed exchange rate )??
• 1.??????
• 2.???????????
• 3.??????
• (?)???????
• 1.??????
• 2.??????????????
• 3.?????????????????
• 4.?????????
• (?)?????( floating exchange rate )??
• 1.????????????
• 2.?????????????
• 3.????????
• 4.??????????
• (?)???????
• 1.????????????

14

• ??????????????
• 1.?????????????????????????????????????????,?????
  ?
• ?p101,p102 ?3-3
• ?????????????????????????
• ????(?????.Vol.4,No.4,July,2005)????????,??????
  ????,???????????????????,??????????????????????,?
  ??????????,?????????????????????,?????????????????
  ??????????????????????????????
• 2.???/??-???
• ??????????
• 1997?2????????????????????????,??????,???????????
  ????????????,??????( p104,3?)?
• ???????????????(processing trade )??,????????

15

• ?????????(The linked exchange rate
  system)/????(currency board system)
• 1983???,HK????HK?US?????????,1 US7.8
  HK??????????????,???????,????????????????????????
  ???????(London?New York?HK)??,????????,???????,??
  ????,?????????????,???????????
• ??????????
• (1)?????????????(anchor currency)
• (2)????????
• (3)???????100???????
• (4)?????????,???????(HKMA)???????????
• (5)HKMA,??????????
• (6)??????(Parallel market )?????(Parallel FX)
• ?,????????????????????????????

16

• ??????????????????????(arbitrage )?????????????
  
• p105 ?3-6p106?3-7
• ?????????????
• 1.??????????????
• 2.??/????
• 3.??????????
• 4.????
• 5.??????
• ??? ???????
• ?????(dollarization )????
• ????????
• ?????IMF-COFER database(http//www.imf.org/externa
  l/np/sta/cofer/eng/index.htm)
• ??2011????????????????(?????????????)?54402.38???,
  ???????32764.06???,?60.2EURO???14539.48???,?26.7
  ?(??,????2011.6,????????100803.71???,???????31974
  .91???,???????31.7)
• ??????????(?????)?????9000?????,??2/3????????

17

• ?????????????
• 1.?? p111(??/???????/?????)?????????????????????
  ?????(?????)??????????????????????????,???????????
  ???????????????????
• ?????????????(Monetary Substitution )???P111
• 2.???????Mundell/Krugman the impossible triangle
• ?????????????????????????????
• ???????????
• 1.???????5?
• 2.???????6?
• 3.???????4?
• 4.???????3?
• ?????(Seigniorage) ?
• ??????????????????????????????????,??????????????,
  ???????????????????????????,???????????,??????????
  ??????????
• ???????
• ????????????????
• EU??27???,?????17?(2011.1.1?????????17???????? )

18

• ??????????
• ??????????
• 2010?EU????GDP?120667.17???,GDP??1.68???146241.8
  ???,GDP??2.64 ???GDP?619634.3???(IMF-WEO)
• 2010?EU????48817.1???,????46191.5?????????18318.3
  5???,??23296.59???(BEA)http//www.bea.gov/newsrele
  ases/international/trade/2011/xls/trad_time_series
  _1210.xls
• ????????????
• 2010?,????????29727.6???,????34.7,????15779.3???
  ,??31.3??13948.3???,??38.7??????
  1831???,????6.4?

19

• 2007??????????http//zhs.mofcom.gov.cn/tongji2007.
  shtml

20

• 2007????10?????

21

• 2007????10?????
• ????????http//zhs.mofcom.gov.cn/aarticle/cbw/201
  104/20110407511679.html

22

• ??? ??????????
• ?????????????
• 1.??????????1949-1979
• ??????????????,??????????????,?????
• 2.????????1979-1993
• ????????????????,??????(???????)
• 3.?????????????1994-1996
• 1994.1.1???????????????????????????
• 4.???????????1996.12.1-2005.7.21
• 1996.12.1??IMF????,CA?????
• 5.????????????????????????,??????????2005.7.21-20
  08.6
• ?????,??????????2.1,??8.11RMB/US,???????
  ????????,????????????????????2005.6.26????????????
  ?????????????????,?????????????????????????,????
  ???????????RMB?????
• 6.??????????2008.6-2010.6
• 7. ???????????????,????????????????,?????????
  2010.6.19
• ??????????,?????????????????,????????????(2008.6
  -2010.6???????????????,?????????????),????????????
  ???

23
(No Transcript)
24
(No Transcript)
25

• ????
• ?????????,????????????????????????,???????????????
  ???,????????????????????????????????????????,?????
  ?????????????????????????????????????,????????????
  ???,????????,??????????,?????????????????,????????
  ????????????,???????????,??????????????,??????????
  ????,????????????????????????,???????????,????????
  ?????????????,????????5 ?????,??????????,????????
  ????????????????????,?2005 ???????2008 ?7
  ??,?????????????,??????????????2009 ?7
  ???,?????????????,????????,?????????,????????,????
  ,??????????????????????????,????????????,????????,
  ??????,???????????????????????????????,???????????
  ?????,?????????????????,??????????????????????????
  ???????????????????????????,???????????????????,?
  ???????????????????,???????????????????,??????????
  ????????????????????????????????????????????????,?
  ????????????????????????????????????????,?????????
  ???????,????????????????????????????,?????????????
  ?,????????????????????????????????????,???????????
  ?????,????????????????,???????????,?????????????,?
  ??????????????????
• (???,2010,????2010.4)

26

• ????????????????
• ????,?????????????????????????????????????????,?
  ???????????????????????????,??????RMB???????????
  ?????????????????,????????????
• ???????CA??????,??????????????????????????????????
  ???????????????,???????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????,????????????????????????
  ?????????,??????????
• ??????????????????????,???????????????????????????
  ????????,????????????????????????????????????????
  ?,???????????(????????????)???????,?????????????
  ,????????????????????????
• ???????????????????????????,?????????????????(Dai,
  2002),?2001 ??,????????????43 ????????,????12
  ???????????,16 ????????,??15 ???????(???p122
  ??3-3)
• ????????????????,???????????????????????????,?????
  ??????,???????????????????????????????,???????????
  ?????????????????,QFII(2002.12)?QDII
  (2006.4)???????????????????????????????QFII ?QDII
  ??????????????,???????????????????????????????????
  ?????????????????????,??????????????????????????

27

• ?????????????
• ????1.http//finance.jrj.com.cn/2010/12/160440878
  9529.shtml(??? ????????????
  ???????????????????? )
• 2.http//news.qq.com/a/20101227/001643.htm
• 3.http//business.sohu.com/20100620/n272933596.sht
  ml

28

• ??? ???
• ??????
• 1.?? p82 2.???? p85
  3.?????? p94 4.?????? p94
  5.??? p111
• ?????
• 1.???????IMF???????( )p84
• A????? B????? C????? D?????
• 2.?????,????????( )p92
• A?????? B????? C????? D?????
• 3.??????,??????( )p93
• A????? B????? C?????? D??????
• 4.??????????????????????????( )
• A?Rogff B?Mundell C?Krugman D?Triffin
• 5.????????????( )p93
• A?1960? B?1968? C?1971? D?1973?
• 6.?????????,IMF??????????( )p98
• A????? B????? C????? D?????
• 7.HK????????????????( )p105
• A?50 B?70 C?90 D?100

29

• ????
• 1.???????,?????????????????????( )p81
• 2.?????????????( )p88
• 3.??????????,??????????????????( )p87
• 4.???????????????????????????????( )p91
• 5.????????,????????( )p93
• 6.?????????????????( )p94
• 7.???BBC????????????????( )p95
• 8.?????????,???????????????????????( )p97
• 9.?????????????,?????????????( )p108
• 10.????????????? ( )p111
• 11.?????????????????????????????( )p115
• ?????
• 1.????????????????P83
• 2.?????????????P100
• ?????
• 1.????????????????????,????????????????????P101-10
  2
• 2.???????????????????P124-125