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Title: PowerPoint Author: huangbing Last modified by: chenhz3 Created Date: 11/19/2004 2:39:21 AM Document presentation format: – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: chenyihua@csc.com.cn


1
?????????,???????
? ? ? chenyihua_at_csc.com.cn
(010)65183888-84073
???????
2
??????????
?????????,?20l0?,?????????????60GW,???????????10?
?????(50GW),????(4GW),????(6GW),?????(450kW)?
?2020?,???????????????121GW,???????????12?
3
?????
4
?????????????????
?? ??MW ?? ??
?? 594.1 47.3 62.6
?? 344.1 27.4 70.1
?? 141.5 11.3 46.9
?? 51.8 4.1 270.0
?? 36.3 2.9 39.1
???? 33.1 2.6 26.3
?? 54.9 4.4 183.0
?? 1256 100 67.5
5
?????????????
6
????? ??????????
???? ?????? ?????? ???
????? ?????,????????? 20 23 ????,????????
????? ??????,????????,????????????,??? 16 19 ????????
??????? ?????????????????????? 10 14 ??
????????? ?????????.???? - 17 ??
???????????? ???,????,????,???.??????,??? - - ?
?????????? ????????????????? - 10?? ?
7
?????????????
8
????
??????,????????????,??????????????????????????????
??????07??????????
???? ?? 2004 2005 2006E 2007E
SGS,Solar Grade Silicon.U.S.A. 2100 2300 3800 5600
HSC,Hemlock Semiconductor Corpration. U.S.A. 2000 2200 2500 5600
Wacker, Wacker Silicon.G.E. 1500 2000 2500 3000
???? 5600 6500 8800 14200
??? - 16.07 35.38 61.36
??????
??(?) ?????
???? 1260 07?
???? 1000 07?
???? 1500 08?
G?? 1000 08?
9
??????????????
???????????????,??????,?5?????20
?????????????20
10
??????
?? ???????????,?????,?????
?? ?????,???????????20-25 ?,???????????????????3-5
?? ?????,?????,????????
?? ????????(??)???????????????????????,?????????,??????????
?? ?????,??????(???2000??/???),??????????????????????(10-20)?
?? ?????????,???????????????????????????8000-10000 ??
11
??????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
?????????????????????????????????????????????????
??????,???????????(?????????23
???)????????,?????????????????????,???????????????
??????????,????????????,????????,?????????,???????
?,???????????????,??????????,?????????????????,???
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
????????????????
12
????????????
???????????????????80??,?????????????????
13
????????
?????????????????????????????????????????????????7
MW ???,???????10MW ???????
??????????????????????????????,???????????,???????
???,?????????????????????????????????????,??????
??? ????????????????????????????????????????????
????????????????????????????,?????????????????????
??????????????????,?????????????? ????????????????
?????????????????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????????,???????????????????????????
?????,????(????)??????????????? ??????????????????
??????????????????????????????????????????????????
???????????????????????????????
14
??????????????
?? ?? ?? 2004??????
1 Vestas ?? 34.10
2 Gamesa ??? 18.10
3 Enercon ?? 15.80
4 GE?? ?? 11.30
5 ??? ?? 6.20
6 SUZLON ?? 3.90
7 REPower ?? 3.40
8 ????MH1 ?? 2.60
9 Econtecnia ??? 2.60
10 Nordex ?? 2.30
  • 2004??,??????????????????17.8?
  • ??????????,???600KW??,???????????,??????????????
  • ?????,????????????????????,?????????11.7,???????,
    ??????????66?

????????????,???????????????,???????????????
15
????
16
???????????
???
???
???
???
  • ?????
  • Shippingport
  • Magnox
  • ???
  • LWR-PWR?BWR
  • CANDU
  • ????
  • ???
  • ????
  • ????
  • ?????
  • ABWR
  • System80
  • AP600
  • EPR

Gen I
Gen II
Gen III
Gen IV
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
17
????????????
18
???????
?? ?????,?????????????2 ??/??????100 ??????,???????30 ????(??120-480 ???)????????????2-3?
?? ????????40 ?,????60 ?,??????
?? ?????????
?? ?????,?????????60-70 ??,????20-30 ????
?? ????,??????????1500 ??/??(??12000 ?/??),???(?5000 ?/??)????,???(6000-8000 ?/??)???(8000-10000 ?/??)??
19
?????????????
???? ??(???)
?????? 6100
??????? 4100
???? 6100
?????? 6100
????? 4100
?????? 6100
??????? 6100
??????? 8100
???? 6100
?? 5200
??? ??MW ????
???? 300 91.12
???-1 900 93.8
???-2 900 94.2
???-1 600 02.2
??-1 984 02.4
??-2 984 02.11
???-1 720 02.12
???-2 720 03.6
???-2 600 04.3
??-1 106 06.5
?? ?? ??????
????-2 106??? 06??
?????? 2??130??? 2011?
???? 2??200??? 2010?
???? 2??200??? 2010??
???? 2??200??? 2010??
??,????????681.4???,???????1.36
20
??????????
21
???????????
?? ??(?/??) ????(?/?)
?? 5,000 0.3
?? 6,000-7,000 0.3
????? 55,000-60,000 3-4
?? 8,000-10,000 0.5
?? 10,000-12,000 0.5-0.6
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