Cohort Graduation Rate

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Cohort Graduation Rate
October 1, 2010 Jonathan Wiens and Sara
Berscheit Office of Assessment and Information
Services Oregon Department of Education
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Longitudinal Data Systems
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Longitudinal Data

• The implementation of the Secure Student
  Identifier system in 2004-05 allowed Oregon to
  begin following individual students over multiple
  years creating a longitudinal data system.
• This also allows us to follow cohorts of students
  through time.
• This allows us to look at data in a new way
• Changes in individual students test scores from
  year to year (Growth Model)
• Student outcomes over multiple years (e.g.,
  graduation, dropout, special populations
  membership)

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Historic Graduation Rate

• Oregon used the modified National Center for
  Education Statistics (NCES) graduation rate in
  AYP and Report Card.
• It was based on a single year of dropout and
  graduation data
• It did not take into account other student
  outcomes.

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Cohort Graduation Rates

• The Class of 2009 was the first group of students
  that we could follow from 8th grade through
  graduation.
• This was the first group of students for which we
  could produce a reliable cohort graduation rate.
• We can determine the final status of all students
  to get a clearer picture of student outcomes.

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Graduation Cohorts
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What is a Cohort?

• A cohort is a set of students who first enter
  high school during a particular school year.
• We label cohorts by the school year they started
  ninth grade.
• Example the 0506 cohort is the set of students
  who first entered 9th grade during the 2005-06
  school year. This was the graduating class of
  2009.

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High School Entry Year Rules

• A students first year in high school is called
  his/her High School Entry Year.
• HS Entry Year is based on the first year the
  student was enrolled in a high school grade
  (9-12).
• For most students this is their 9th grade school
  year.
• The high school entry year determines the
  students cohort for graduation rate purposes.

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High School Entry Year Rules

• Students who repeat a grade in high school do not
  have their Entry Year changed.
• Entry Year does not change when a student
  transfers between schools or districts.
• Students who transfer from out of state have
  their Entry Year based on their first year in
  high school in the other state or country.

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High School Entry Year in SSID

• High School Entry year is now a field in SSID.
• In Fall 2009 ODE filled this field for high
  school students, based on an examination of ADM,
  completer and early leaver date for each student.
• Districts were allowed to edit the field through
  February 2010, and is now locked.

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High School Entry Year Edits

• The HS Entry Year field can now be changed only
  under very limited circumstances.
• The first time SSID is updated to include a high
  school grade the district must submit an Entry
  Year with the record.
• The field is locked immediately.
• Changes can be made only through an appeal to ODE.

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What is a Cohort Graduation Rate?

• A cohort graduation rate is the percent of
  students in a particular cohort that graduate in
  a particular time frame (e.g., four years).
• The rates requires us to know when students first
  entered high school (i.e., the cohort the student
  belongs to).

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What Cohort Rates will ODE produce?

• We produced a four year cohort in May 2010.
• In Spring 2011 we will produce
• A four-year cohort graduation rate (for the Class
  of 2010)
• A five-year cohort graduation rate (for the Class
  of 2009)

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Cohort Graduation Rates Policy
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Federal Policy

• The U.S. Department of Education has required
  that states develop cohort graduation rates by
  the 2010-11 school year.
• Cohort rates must be included on 2010-11 school
  report cards.
• Disaggregated cohort rates must be used in
  2011-12 AYP determinations.
• Federal regulations and guidance are detailed and
  prescriptive. Oregon has followed these
  regulations in developing our cohort graduation
  rate calculations.

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Cohorts Rules

• Early graduates in a cohort are banked and
  reported with their cohort.
• Students who graduate after the end of the time
  period are counted as non-completers
• Example A student who graduates in his/her
  fifth year would be a non-graduate in a four-year
  cohort rate, but a graduate in a five-year rate.

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Cohorts Rules

• The cohort rate includes adult high school
  diplomas, modified diplomas, GEDs and
  non-dropout, non-completers in its denominator as
  non-graduates.
• Federal guidance specifically forbids cohort
  reassignment based on IEP or LEP status.

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Subgroup Membership

• Race/Ethnicity/Gender
• Based on student outcome record (or last
  enrollment record).
• Students with disabilities, economically
  disadvantaged, limited English proficient,
  migrant, TAG
• Based on whether the student was classified in
  these subgroups at any time during high school

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Students with Disabilities Subgroup

• Definition
• All students served by special education programs
  during any school year in which the student was
  enrolled in a high school grade.
• Steps to identify the subgroup
• A list of SSIDs is created, of students
  considered Students with Disabilities, from the
  Special Education Data Collections
• Students included in the Cohort, who are also on
  the Students with Disabilities list, are counted
  in the Students with Disabilities subgroup.

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Students with Disabilities Subgroup Data
Collections

• Special Education Child Count
• All school-age students reported as eligible and
  receiving services. Cohort uses the SECC
  collections applicable to the years the student
  was enrolled in high school.
• Special Education June Exit
• All school-age students reported as exiting
  special education services. Cohort uses the
  collections applicable to the years the student
  was enrolled in high school.
• Special Education Child Find
• This collection was not used in the cohort
  calculations.

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Cohort Graduation Rate Calculations
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Cohort Process

• Determine students who first entered high school
  in a given school year.
• Determine each students final outcome.
• Assign the students to their last resident
  district and high school.
• Remove student who transferred out.
• Among those that remain, calculate the percent
  who graduated with a regular diploma in the time
  allowed.

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Unadjusted Cohorts

• The Unadjusted State Cohort consists of all
  students that
• enrolled in a high school grade in an Oregon
  school district, and
• first entered high school in during the cohort
  entry year in any school inside or outside Oregon.

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Unadjusted Cohorts

• An unadjusted cohort for District A is comprised
  of all student that are
• Members of the unadjusted state cohort and
• whose last enrollment at a district in Oregon was
  District A.
• This includes students that transfer into the
  district after their 9th grade year.
• An unadjusted cohort for School B is comprised of
  all student that are
• Members of the unadjusted district cohort whose
  last enrollment at a high school within District
  A was at School B.
• Note Resident school and district are always
  used to determine enrollment.

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Student Outcomes

• All students in the unadjusted state/district
  cohort are assigned an outcome
• Graduate regular high school diploma.
• Exempt Transfer, move to home schooling,
  emigrate, or are deceased.
• Other Completers Received an Adult High School
  Diploma, Modified Diploma, Extended Diploma, GED,
  or Alternative Certificate.
• Continuing enrollment in the following year.
• Completed four/five years without a credential
  and did not return.
• Withdrew from school prior to the end of the
  four/five-year window.

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Exempt Students

• We remove students from an institutions cohort
  if they
• Transfer to another public high school in Oregon
• Transfer to a private school
• Leave for home schooling
• Transfer to a high school in another state
• Emigrate or
• Are deceased.

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Who is NOT exempted?

• The following situations do NOT exempt a student
  from an institution
• Transfer to an alternative program within the
  district
• Transfer to a JDEP.

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Adjusted Cohorts

• The Adjusted cohort for a school or district
  consists of the unadjusted cohort minus those
  students who are Exempt. Please note
• Adjusted cohorts include those students who
  transfer into the school or district after 9th
  grade.
• Students who drop out before the end of their
  12th grade year are retained in the cohort.

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Who is exempted?

• We remove students from an institutions cohort
  if they
• Transfer to another public high school in Oregon
• Transfer to a private school
• Leave for home schooling
• Transfer to a high school in another state
• Emigrate or
• Are deceased.
• Note These outcomes must be the last event for
  the student.

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Calculating a Cohort Graduation Rate

• Cohort Graduation Rates are calculated as
• Four-Year Rate
• Number of students in the adjusted cohort who
  received regular diplomas the summer of their 4th
  year
• __________________________________________________
  __________________________________________________
  __________________________________________________
  __________________________________________________
  __________________________________________________
  __________________________________________________
  ____________
• Number of students in the adjusted cohort
• Five Year Rate
• Number of students in the adjusted cohort who
  received regular diplomas the summer of their 5th
  year
• __________________________________________________
  __________________________________________________
  _______________________
• Number of students in the adjusted cohort

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AYP for 2010-11

• Schools can meet AYP graduation if
• The school meets the 65 target for the four-year
  rate
• The school meets the 70 target for the five-year
  rate OR
• The school shows improvement in its four year
  rate.
• Beginning with 2011-12 subgroups will also need
  to meet graduation.

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Information

• Cohort Graduation Rate web page
  http//www.ode.state.or.us/search/page/?id2644
• For more information on the Cohort Graduation
  Rate, contacts are
• Brian Lindsley (primary contact)
• email brian.lindsley_at_state.or.us
• phone [phone]
• Jon Wiens
• email jon.wiens_at_state.or.us
• phone [phone]