Toward Modeling of River-Estuary-Ocean Interactions to Enhance Operational River Forecasting in the NOAA National Weather Service

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Toward Modeling of River-Estuary-Ocean
Interactions to Enhance Operational River
Forecasting in the NOAA National Weather Service

• Hassan Mashriqui
• Seann Reed
• Cecile Aschwanden
• Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD)
• National Weather Service (NWS)
• 4 March, 2009

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Acknowledgement

• Jon Janowicz
• Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA),
  Region 3
• Kevin Hlywiak
• Middle Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC),
  NWS

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Current NOAA/NWS Hydrologic Service Delivery
13 River Forecast Centers (Colored)
122 Weather Forecast Offices (Outlined in Black)
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Current Forecast Hydrographs
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Ocean
Often we use numerical models to simulate these
complex coastal environments
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Model Types

• 1D models HEC-RAS/FLDWAV, SOBEK, MIKE 11
• 2D models ADCIRC, MIKE 21, SELFE
• 3D models CBOFS2, SELFE, DELFT3D,
  MIKE 3D

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The Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System
(CBOFS)

• Operational forecast system by Center for
  Operational Oceanographic Products and Services
  (CO-OPS)/Coastal Survey Development Lab (CSDL)
  since August 2001
• Nowcast and forecast Water Level
• Nowcast and forecast Wind
• Forecast for the ports within Baltimore Harbor
  and Hampton Roads.

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Little Falls near Washington, DCMARFCs Forecast
Pointon the Potomac River
Inflow boundary for the CBOFS is 7 miles from
Little Falls forecast point
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Model Geometry is Important
Error due to inaccurate boundary
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The Potomac River 1D HEC-RAS
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1936 Potomac River Flood
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1D HEC-RAS allows bridges to be coded in the
model to determine the backwater effects. Many
2D/3D models do not have this capability
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HEC-RAS simulated water level profiles for the
Potomac River near Washington DC
Chain Bridge near DC
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Potomac River HEC-RAS domain
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Hurricane Isabel, 2003
HEC-RAS will simulate water level near DC
Boundary Condition from CBOFS or SLOSH
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HEC-RAS test simulation without freshwater inflow
or wind forcing. Boundary tide at Lewisetta, Va
and simulated water level near Washington DC
Predicted water level near Washington DC
Stage (ft)
Input water level near Lewisetta, Va
September 2003
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Summary1D Fast, ready to use, accounts for
bridges2D/3D Better physics,
complexApplication depends on the customer
need, project location etc.
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Thank you