The Cook Islands limited experience applying impacts assessment methodologies

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The Cook Islands limited experience applying
impacts assessment methodologies

• Pasha Carruthers
• Research Officer
• PICCAP Program,
• Environment Service
• June 2001

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Cook Islands Experience

• Methods applied limited mainly to analogues,
  expert judgment,brainstorming
• Not Tested
• Why so limited?
• Relevance to scale
• Capacity and Technology
• Poor understanding of other methods
• Future impact assessment methods?

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Cook Islands

• Island micro-state
• Latitude 9-22S
• Longitude 157-166W
• limited land size (240 sq km)
• small population size (16,000?)
• limited natural resources
• external economic and physical impacts important
• geographic diversity with both high and low
  islands

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Socio-economic elements

• Tourism
• Pearls
• Commercial and Subsistence Seafood
• Coastal Flood Plain Agriculture

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Activities

• Signatory to UNFCCC 1992
• needed to produce The Initial National
  Communication

• PICCAP - Pacific Islands Climate Change
  Assistance Programme 1997
• Implemented by SPREP (South Pacific Regional
  Environment Programme)
• Assist countries to meet their obligations under
  the Convention
• Provides technical assistance, training, capacity
  building
• Funding of Co-ordinators and in-country
  activities

• Country Team Approach
• VA Course
• Expected to integrate emphasis on model scenario
  generation - PACCLIM
• Instead focus on
• expanding the VA statement to enhance full
  representation of the country
• qualitative baselines
• public awareness

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Cook Islands Exposure Sectors

• As Identified by Country Team Matrices
• Agriculture crop yields, harvest times, crop
  viablity, land loss
• Coastal shoreline erosion and landloss
• Health increased vector borne diseases, disaster
  risk, skin sepsis
• Water resources saltwater intrusion, physical
  damage to infrastructure, drought
• Coastal shoreline erosion and landloss

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Field Research
Challenges

• Focal point established
• Overview of the island
• Meetings with government officials, community
  leaders
• Informal discussions
• School and Media Presentations
• Qualitative observations including anecdotal
  evidence

• Trust
• Limited time
• Presenting complex material
• Getting relevant input
• Recording feedback
• Verifying anecdotes
• Quantifying observations and uncertainties

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Models and Decisions

• IAM still more theory than practice
• MAGICC, IMAGE others have benefits but time
  consuming to run meaningful(?) simulations
• In truth demonstration tool produced at great
  expense has had limited applicability
• not simple, too many errors, closed programs
• useful application at the decision maker level
  requires a motivator and a greater level of
  completeness.
• Better as a training tool, for identifying cross
  sectoral considerations

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PACCLIM Outputs
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Future Directions

• Open Structure Models, focused data collection
• Access to national and international technical
  expertise
• Improve results obtained from simple methods,
  interview skills, checklists
• Reporting Important
• Risk Management and coping ability
• Integrated management plans
• Implementation through policy, National
  Implementation Strategy
• Public Education Awareness
• Continued lobbying for mitigation and adaptation
  assistance

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